A-L-E-K Posted December 31, 2012 Share Posted December 31, 2012 absolutely nothing interesting on the horizon...see you guys in 2 weeks Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted December 31, 2012 Share Posted December 31, 2012 absolutely nothing interesting on the horizon...see you guys in 2 weeks Last night's Euro basically showed nothing through 240 for most of us. Pretty bleak looking lol. Hopefully things pick up in mid Jan. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hm8 Posted December 31, 2012 Share Posted December 31, 2012 Well this looks fun Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SpartyOn Posted December 31, 2012 Share Posted December 31, 2012 Well this looks fun Love a fast pace quasi zonal flow. Snow pack destroyer lurking. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted December 31, 2012 Share Posted December 31, 2012 It would be nice to fast forward through to the 11th or 12th. GFS showing this on the 11th. East Pacfic ridge stays through the end of the period. Trough stays parked over the Rockies and Plains. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
QVectorman Posted January 1, 2013 Share Posted January 1, 2013 I extended my outlook through Jan 8 on Dec. 14. I still feel comfortable with those dates and with the newest GWO analogs and latest 10 and 30 mb temp forecast it appears the time frame between Jan 8-10 will see a warm up over the east with a short wave moving through the east Jan 10-11 with cooler air dropping in behind it for Jan 10-13 across the MW/GLKS and then pockets of cooler air arriving Jan 15-19 time frame for the east followed by a second reinforcement of cooler air Jan 20-24. My GWO analogs only take me out to Jan 9 so there may be another short wave or two to add to the 2 already expected for the Jan 9-24 time frame. I will update as the newest GWO numbers come out over the next week and half. I mentioned this shortwave back on 12/21 based on GWO analogs. I like the look of the runs so far. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WestMichigan Posted January 1, 2013 Share Posted January 1, 2013 Love a fast pace quasi zonal flow. Snow pack destroyer lurking. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted January 1, 2013 Share Posted January 1, 2013 You are assuming there is a snowpack to destroy... There is a solid one to destroy here....DTW has a good 0.6" water content in our snowpack. Today is the 8th consecutive day of 1"+ snowdepth and 9th on the season, and that will continue for at minimum another week.....last winter our longest consecutive day stretch was 5 with a winter total of just 20 days! Winter 2010-11 saw our longest consecutive day streak of 1"+ snowcover at 43 days - though a far majority of those were deep snow - and 80 days overall. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ottawa Blizzard Posted January 1, 2013 Share Posted January 1, 2013 I've heard the latest European weeklies are awful and essentially end winter. JB is apparently really down in the dumps about them. Reminds me of January 2006 when he was calling for cold before the European weeklies showed a torch coming...and a torch it was. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SpartyOn Posted January 1, 2013 Share Posted January 1, 2013 I've heard the latest European weeklies are awful and essentially end winter. JB is apparently really down in the dumps about them. Reminds me of January 2006 when he was calling for cold before the European weeklies showed a torch coming...and a torch it was. This is the 1990s all over again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 1, 2013 Share Posted January 1, 2013 The Euro weeklies haven't been rock solid IIRC. No doubt there will be a period of moderation compared to now but I'd take anything out to 3 or 4 weeks with a grain of salt. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ukrocks Posted January 1, 2013 Share Posted January 1, 2013 Up until yesterday, we had at least a dusting of snow laying on the ground since the day after Christmas, but a few rain shower cleaned that up last night. This week looks cold here with temperatures not hitting 40 until at least the weekend. After that, it's up in the air. I did hear that we may get into in the 50's next week which will be a bummer because the ground is now cold and ready for snow. But I don't think winter is over by any means. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted January 1, 2013 Share Posted January 1, 2013 I've heard the latest European weeklies are awful and essentially end winter. JB is apparently really down in the dumps about them. Reminds me of January 2006 when he was calling for cold before the European weeklies showed a torch coming...and a torch it was. Welp, the Euro weeklies are never wrong. Never ever. Hope for better times in 2013-14. Really liking these analogs for the next three months. What do you think? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted January 1, 2013 Share Posted January 1, 2013 I would not believe anything past the 15th of the month or so. ECMWF and GFS both show the vortex splitting into two pieces - one goes to Russia and the other to Hudson Bay. Then as of now the GFS forecast is for them to sit there through Day 16. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 1, 2013 Share Posted January 1, 2013 12z Euro has no precip here through the 10th. GFS has a little. Sometimes smaller systems aren't modeled well in advance so there's always a chance that something pops up but the odds of anything big look next to nonexistant. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted January 1, 2013 Share Posted January 1, 2013 Seriously though, this is one hell of a signal 9-10 days out. Jan 10th 2m temp departures from the 12z GEFS. But there isn't anything we can do about it. Hope for better times down the road. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted January 1, 2013 Share Posted January 1, 2013 This is the 1990s all over again. Actually the 1990s one solid winter month always seemed to be January. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted January 1, 2013 Share Posted January 1, 2013 The Euro weeklies haven't been rock solid IIRC. No doubt there will be a period of moderation compared to now but I'd take anything out to 3 or 4 weeks with a grain of salt. The weeklies have not been good for a while now. The Euro (and its weeklies) do not seem to be as accurate as they used to be. That said, euro is still the most reliable model imo. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted January 1, 2013 Share Posted January 1, 2013 Welp, the Euro weeklies are never wrong. Never ever. Hope for better times in 2013-14. Really liking these analogs for the next three months. What do you think? trolling ftw! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IWXwx Posted January 1, 2013 Author Share Posted January 1, 2013 The annual 'January Thaw' may be an old wives' tale or just anecdotal, but it seems to happen every year and there it is on the ensembles. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted January 1, 2013 Share Posted January 1, 2013 Seriously though, this is one hell of a signal 9-10 days out. Jan 10th 2m temp departures from the 12z GEFS. But there isn't anything we can do about it. Hope for better times down the road. Im much more of an amateur model reader than many here...but I was actually surprised when looking at the 2m Temps on the GEFS and the Euro...I thought theyd be much warmer than they showed based on thicknesses and 850s. Wonder if cold at the surface has anything to do with it? Moderation seems likely...torch remains to be seen. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted January 1, 2013 Share Posted January 1, 2013 The annual 'January Thaw' may be an old wives' tale or just anecdotal, but it seems to happen every year and there it is on the ensembles. I actually read a while back that there was statistical evidence that showed a January thaw wasnt a wives tale. the irony is that the most common timeframe for it was Jan 20-23, literally right before what is considered the dead of winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 1, 2013 Share Posted January 1, 2013 Seriously though, this is one hell of a signal 9-10 days out. Jan 10th 2m temp departures from the 12z GEFS. But there isn't anything we can do about it. Hope for better times down the road. Yeah that is a strong signal. Always have to be concerned about snowpack and lingering inversions at this time of year but my early guess is that we see at least a couple days of highs in the 50s, centered around the 10th. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 1, 2013 Share Posted January 1, 2013 Gotta love the 12z GFS. It shows the cold coming back after the 10th but not before ORD gets skirted with another system passing south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted January 1, 2013 Share Posted January 1, 2013 Im much more of an amateur model reader than many here...but I was actually surprised when looking at the 2m Temps on the GEFS and the Euro...I thought theyd be much warmer than they showed based on thicknesses and 850s. Wonder if cold at the surface has anything to do with it? Moderation seems likely...torch remains to be seen. +18 is almost at the top of the scale. That's an all out torch. Also consider the GEFS 2m departures tend to bias "cool" in these situations, 9-10 days out. But, it's not like there will be a solid week of these kinds of departures...I just cherry picked one day. To be fair, they cool back to just above or normal thereafter. Euro ensembles would keep the warmth going though. Regardless, a moderation/warm period looks likely through mid month...hopefully the second half holds more promise. I do think activity will pick back up mid-month and beyond, that I'm fairly confident in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The_Global_Warmer Posted January 1, 2013 Share Posted January 1, 2013 Im much more of an amateur model reader than many here...but I was actually surprised when looking at the 2m Temps on the GEFS and the Euro...I thought theyd be much warmer than they showed based on thicknesses and 850s. Wonder if cold at the surface has anything to do with it? Moderation seems likely...torch remains to be seen. Model Bias. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Harry Posted January 1, 2013 Share Posted January 1, 2013 Welp, the Euro weeklies are never wrong. Never ever. Hope for better times in 2013-14. Really liking these analogs for the next three months. What do you think? Solid work. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Harry Posted January 1, 2013 Share Posted January 1, 2013 Im much more of an amateur model reader than many here...but I was actually surprised when looking at the 2m Temps on the GEFS and the Euro...I thought theyd be much warmer than they showed based on thicknesses and 850s. Wonder if cold at the surface has anything to do with it? Moderation seems likely...torch remains to be seen. The ole dirty high? Warm above with clouds, fog and 38 below? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted January 1, 2013 Share Posted January 1, 2013 The ole dirty high? Warm above with clouds, fog and 38 below? I would take it. You know me, save any snow you can Currently have the highest snowbanks weve had since early March 2011....why ruin a good thing? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IWXwx Posted January 1, 2013 Author Share Posted January 1, 2013 Yeah that is a strong signal. Always have to be concerned about snowpack and lingering inversions at this time of year but my early guess is that we see at least a couple days of highs in the 50s, centered around the 10th. This would be my concern. It's kinda iffy, because even though most of the subforum has snow cover, it's not real deep. A couple of 34-35° days would take care of a lot of the snow and then with a third or fourth day of warmth could end up torching. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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