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Medium/Long Range Discussion Part 2


IWXwx

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I extended my outlook through Jan 8 on Dec. 14. I still feel comfortable with those dates and with the newest GWO analogs and latest 10 and 30 mb temp forecast it appears the time frame between Jan 8-10 will see a warm up over the east with a short wave moving through the east Jan 10-11 with cooler air dropping in behind it for Jan 10-13 across the MW/GLKS and then pockets of cooler air arriving Jan 15-19 time frame for the east followed by a second reinforcement of cooler air Jan 20-24. My GWO analogs only take me out to Jan 9 so there may be another short wave or two to add to the 2 already expected for the Jan 9-24 time frame. I will update as the newest GWO numbers come out over the next week and half.

I mentioned this shortwave back on 12/21 based on GWO analogs. I like the look of the runs so far.

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You are assuming there is a snowpack to destroy...

There is a solid one to destroy here....DTW has a good 0.6" water content in our snowpack. Today is the 8th consecutive day of 1"+ snowdepth and 9th on the season, and that will continue for at minimum another week.....last winter our longest consecutive day stretch was 5 with a winter total of just 20 days! Winter 2010-11 saw our longest consecutive day streak of 1"+ snowcover at 43 days - though a far majority of those were deep snow - and 80 days overall.

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I've heard the latest European weeklies are awful and essentially end winter. JB is apparently really down in the dumps about them. Reminds me of January 2006 when he was calling for cold before the European weeklies showed a torch coming...and a torch it was.

This is the 1990s all over again.

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Up until yesterday, we had at least a dusting of snow laying on the ground since the day after Christmas, but a few rain shower cleaned that up last night.

This week looks cold here with temperatures not hitting 40 until at least the weekend. After that, it's up in the air. I did hear that we may get into in the 50's next week which will be a bummer because the ground is now cold and ready for snow. But I don't think winter is over by any means.

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I've heard the latest European weeklies are awful and essentially end winter. JB is apparently really down in the dumps about them. Reminds me of January 2006 when he was calling for cold before the European weeklies showed a torch coming...and a torch it was.

Welp, the Euro weeklies are never wrong. Never ever. Hope for better times in 2013-14.

Really liking these analogs for the next three months. What do you think?

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I would not believe anything past the 15th of the month or so. ECMWF and GFS both show the vortex splitting into two pieces - one goes to Russia and the other to Hudson Bay. Then as of now the GFS forecast is for them to sit there through Day 16.

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The Euro weeklies haven't been rock solid IIRC. No doubt there will be a period of moderation compared to now but I'd take anything out to 3 or 4 weeks with a grain of salt.

The weeklies have not been good for a while now. The Euro (and its weeklies) do not seem to be as accurate as they used to be. That said, euro is still the most reliable model imo.

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Seriously though, this is one hell of a signal 9-10 days out. Jan 10th 2m temp departures from the 12z GEFS.

But there isn't anything we can do about it. Hope for better times down the road.

Im much more of an amateur model reader than many here...but I was actually surprised when looking at the 2m Temps on the GEFS and the Euro...I thought theyd be much warmer than they showed based on thicknesses and 850s. Wonder if cold at the surface has anything to do with it? Moderation seems likely...torch remains to be seen.

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The annual 'January Thaw' may be an old wives' tale or just anecdotal, but it seems to happen every year and there it is on the ensembles.

I actually read a while back that there was statistical evidence that showed a January thaw wasnt a wives tale. the irony is that the most common timeframe for it was Jan 20-23, literally right before what is considered the dead of winter.

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Seriously though, this is one hell of a signal 9-10 days out. Jan 10th 2m temp departures from the 12z GEFS.

But there isn't anything we can do about it. Hope for better times down the road.

Yeah that is a strong signal. Always have to be concerned about snowpack and lingering inversions at this time of year but my early guess is that we see at least a couple days of highs in the 50s, centered around the 10th.

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Im much more of an amateur model reader than many here...but I was actually surprised when looking at the 2m Temps on the GEFS and the Euro...I thought theyd be much warmer than they showed based on thicknesses and 850s. Wonder if cold at the surface has anything to do with it? Moderation seems likely...torch remains to be seen.

+18 is almost at the top of the scale. That's an all out torch. Also consider the GEFS 2m departures tend to bias "cool" in these situations, 9-10 days out. But, it's not like there will be a solid week of these kinds of departures...I just cherry picked one day. To be fair, they cool back to just above or normal thereafter. Euro ensembles would keep the warmth going though. Regardless, a moderation/warm period looks likely through mid month...hopefully the second half holds more promise. I do think activity will pick back up mid-month and beyond, that I'm fairly confident in.

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Im much more of an amateur model reader than many here...but I was actually surprised when looking at the 2m Temps on the GEFS and the Euro...I thought theyd be much warmer than they showed based on thicknesses and 850s. Wonder if cold at the surface has anything to do with it? Moderation seems likely...torch remains to be seen.

Model Bias.

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Im much more of an amateur model reader than many here...but I was actually surprised when looking at the 2m Temps on the GEFS and the Euro...I thought theyd be much warmer than they showed based on thicknesses and 850s. Wonder if cold at the surface has anything to do with it? Moderation seems likely...torch remains to be seen.

The ole dirty high? Warm above with clouds, fog and 38 below? :o

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Yeah that is a strong signal. Always have to be concerned about snowpack and lingering inversions at this time of year but my early guess is that we see at least a couple days of highs in the 50s, centered around the 10th.

This would be my concern. It's kinda iffy, because even though most of the subforum has snow cover, it's not real deep. A couple of 34-35° days would take care of a lot of the snow and then with a third or fourth day of warmth could end up torching.

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