QVectorman Posted December 30, 2012 Share Posted December 30, 2012 Thanks for this analysis QVectorman. I'll admit most discussion regarding SSW goes right over my head. Regardless, I'm looking forward to the potential cold snap. NP...glad to share the knowledge. As far as the 18z and the Jan 3 cold the GFS has ebbed and waned on it several times so I wouldn't pronounce it dead just yet. I would wait another 2 or 3 runs for consistency. Euro still has the cold air there, just spilling it into the NE rather than GLKS first. So there is a bit of hope. If anyone has been following this for the past 2 weeks they know the models have been inconsistent from 0z to 12z to 18z on the placement of this air any how. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WestMichigan Posted December 30, 2012 Share Posted December 30, 2012 Thanks for a little hope QVectorman, the 18z GFS was/is ugly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ottawa Blizzard Posted December 30, 2012 Share Posted December 30, 2012 0z GFS continues its major backing off of the severe cold threat for southern Ontario. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted December 30, 2012 Share Posted December 30, 2012 Not that I'm taking this to the bank but what a fricken disaster of a run. Hopefully we see more action affecting the subforum. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted December 30, 2012 Share Posted December 30, 2012 Not that I'm taking this to the bank but what a fricken disaster of a run. Hopefully we see more action affecting the subforum. That doesn't bode well for the current snow hole/drought! Hoping this is/was an off run. --- Chicago Wx: I think the 3.1" at Milwaukee is correct there were numerous 2-4" amounts recorded in SE WI nearer to the lake today. I was in Racine and they definitely had 2 or so inches down from this system. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted December 30, 2012 Share Posted December 30, 2012 Not that I'm taking this to the bank but what a fricken disaster of a run. Hopefully we see more action affecting the subforum. Until the split flow goes away, I fear this might be correct. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
QVectorman Posted December 30, 2012 Share Posted December 30, 2012 Don't lose faith just yet brethren...it doesn't look good but not all hope is lost just yet... 000 FXUS63 KDTX 300801 AFDDTX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI 301 AM EST SUN DEC 30 2012 && .LONG TERM...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY WHAT IS OF CONCERN DURING THIS PERIOD IS A LARGE AREA OF VERY COLD AIR RESIDING IN CANADA WHERE 850 MB TEMPERATURES ARE -20 TO -30 CELSIUS. DESPITE PREVIOUS RUNS BRINGING THIS COLD AIR SOUTH INTO THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES...RECENT RUNS HAVE BACKED OFF THIS SOLUTION AND KEEP THE COLD AIR BOTTLED UP IN CANADA. WHILE THE COLDEST AIR IS FORECAST TO STAY TO THE NORTH...ENOUGH COLD AIR IS EXPECTED TO FILTER INTO SOUTHEAST MICHIGAN TO KEEP LOW TEMPERATURES IN THE SINGLE DIGITS WITH DAYTIME HIGHS AROUND 20 DEGREES THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK UNTIL WARMER AIR MAKES ITS WAY INTO THE REGION ON SATURDAY...BUMPING TEMPERATURES BACK UP CLOSER TO NORMAL LEVELS. ALTHOUGH THE MODELS KEEP THIS COLD AIR TO THE NORTH SUBSEQUENT RUNS WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED AS THE COLD AIR WILL BE CLOSE ENOUGH TO THE AREA TO SURGE SOUTH IF ONE OF THESE UPSTREAM LOWS CAN TRACK SOUTH AND OPEN THE DOOR FOR THE COLD AIR TO SETTLE IN ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES. plus several 0z GEFS and 21z SREF ensemble members along with the Canadian are hinting that one of the lows can track south and unleash -20C 850s down through MI. Either way even with warmer solution middle of the week will still see highs only in the low 20's vs. the upper teens that was being forecasted with colder solutions for lower MI....which is nothing to complain about. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DAFF Posted December 30, 2012 Share Posted December 30, 2012 I personally don't want the arctic cold. Not very often abnormal cold brings substancial snow to this region. If the temps stay like this I feel a good chance for more snows. Small they might be but snow no less. Had some more big mood flakes which covered everything again this AM. Not forecasted but happy to see them in the air. Perhaps this is trend.... Surprise and here comes another round. To go with the NW shifting of southern systems. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted December 30, 2012 Share Posted December 30, 2012 We now have plenty of snow on the ground here, so I wouldnt mind arctic cold for a while because its a very wintry landscape. It does not bode well for those snow-drought areas though, as cold/dry is not fun. If only we could get the clipper express going! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nickysixes Posted December 30, 2012 Share Posted December 30, 2012 Road trip to Labrador may be in the offing:)) Until the split flow goes away, I fear this might be correct. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted December 30, 2012 Share Posted December 30, 2012 Does look boring but I agree, better than 40F and fog. I guarentee some in this area will say if it "shakes up" the pattern and we lose our snowcover as a result, so be it. But give me cold because SOMETHING usually pops up. Is it impossible to be dry for two weeks? No. But extremely unlikely imo. Now, we may have two (or more, yuck) weeks free of any significant weather, but we have a nice snowpack down so anything that acts as a refresher is good imo. Snowpack may grow stale around the edges, but in undisturbed areas, white is white, and white is winter lol. I dont think on Dec 20th that most would believe all of SE MI would have seen anywhere from 8-15" of snow by Dec 30th. What Im hoping for is a massive LES outbreak for the snow-starved in W MI, and clipper express to finally give Chicago some snow...no west-cutting snowpack-melting storms please! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ottawa Blizzard Posted December 30, 2012 Share Posted December 30, 2012 We now have plenty of snow on the ground here, so I wouldnt mind arctic cold for a while because its a very wintry landscape. It does not bode well for those snow-drought areas though, as cold/dry is not fun. If only we could get the clipper express going! Unfortunately, though, recent runs of the models have been backing off on the cold as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted December 30, 2012 Share Posted December 30, 2012 GEFS really bring the action back after Jan 8th or so. Unfortunately, not all the precip accompanying that action will be frozen. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wisconsinwx Posted December 30, 2012 Share Posted December 30, 2012 GEFS really bring the action back after Jan 8th or so. Unfortunately, not all the precip accompanying that action will be frozen. Not surprising, but I'll be happy to see some action back at that point, and given it's January, there will be some cold air and snowcover in place ahead of that action, which doesn't hurt. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted December 30, 2012 Share Posted December 30, 2012 Does look boring but I agree, better than 40F and fog. I guarentee some in this area will say if it "shakes up" the pattern and we lose our snowcover as a result, so be it. But give me cold because SOMETHING usually pops up. Is it impossible to be dry for two weeks? No. But extremely unlikely imo. Now, we may have two (or more, yuck) weeks free of any significant weather, but we have a nice snowpack down so anything that acts as a refresher is good imo. Snowpack may grow stale around the edges, but in undisturbed areas, white is white, and white is winter lol. I dont think on Dec 20th that most would believe all of SE MI would have seen anywhere from 8-15" of snow by Dec 30th. What Im hoping for is a massive LES outbreak for the snow-starved in W MI, and clipper express to finally give Chicago some snow...no west-cutting snowpack-melting storms please! +1 Not exactly the medium range, but... Small chance of a system coming down from Saskatchewan on Thursday. Might good for a few inches for the western Lakes and further NW. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jonger Posted December 30, 2012 Share Posted December 30, 2012 Does look boring but I agree, better than 40F and fog. I guarentee some in this area will say if it "shakes up" the pattern and we lose our snowcover as a result, so be it. But give me cold because SOMETHING usually pops up. Is it impossible to be dry for two weeks? No. But extremely unlikely imo. Now, we may have two (or more, yuck) weeks free of any significant weather, but we have a nice snowpack down so anything that acts as a refresher is good imo. Snowpack may grow stale around the edges, but in undisturbed areas, white is white, and white is winter lol. I dont think on Dec 20th that most would believe all of SE MI would have seen anywhere from 8-15" of snow by Dec 30th. What Im hoping for is a massive LES outbreak for the snow-starved in W MI, and clipper express to finally give Chicago some snow...no west-cutting snowpack-melting storms please! Houghton has logged 10-20 inches in December... That is unheard of.... They usually see 50-100. Let's get the LES going Jon Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
QVectorman Posted December 30, 2012 Share Posted December 30, 2012 The top is the Euro from 12/29 0z run when it portrayed the best cold air for Jan 4 0z. The bottom is the 12/30 12z run...it's still bringing the same magnitude of cold air over the MW just more concentrated shot. In fact it has a pocket of -22 to -24C over the UP which is colder than the previous coldest run and pushes the -16 to -18C to N. IN and N. OH vs. the 1229 run that took it to southern MI. It's obviously not as widespread but gives credence to the idea that this cold shot is not dead yet. The Euro is hanging in there with it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chances14 Posted December 30, 2012 Share Posted December 30, 2012 say what you will about the lack of storms coming our way, if the cold air hangs on, this is going to be an ideal week for pond hockey Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DAFF Posted December 30, 2012 Share Posted December 30, 2012 Our local pond is lumpy due to the snow on soft un-mature ice. Going to try to flood it with some fresh water perhaps as early as tomorrow. I hope we can have a block party on it and enjoy some fine cooking on the open wood grill. Nothing is better than some dogs, burgers, onion rings and fries while skating/hockey. I think it will be snowing again before very long ..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted December 30, 2012 Share Posted December 30, 2012 Not surprising, but I'll be happy to see some action back at that point, and given it's January, there will be some cold air and snowcover in place ahead of that action, which doesn't hurt. That's the key. Getting into the core winter months, I'll always take warm/wet over cold/dry. Makes it much easier to run into something big even if snowpack doesn't become knee deep. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Harry Posted December 30, 2012 Share Posted December 30, 2012 The top is the Euro from 12/29 0z run when it portrayed the best cold air for Jan 4 0z. The bottom is the 12/30 12z run...it's still bringing the same magnitude of cold air over the MW just more concentrated shot. In fact it has a pocket of -22 to -24C over the UP which is colder than the previous coldest run and pushes the -16 to -18C to N. IN and N. OH vs. the 1229 run that took it to southern MI. It's obviously not as widespread but gives credence to the idea that this cold shot is not dead yet. The Euro is hanging in there with it. Needs to go back to the way it was as that offered us a decent LES set up on this side of the lake. Ofcourse i know that is not happening. With the MJO sneaking into the warmer phases ( 3-4 and maybe 5 ) i am not so optimistic about cold/snow in the area for a while anyways other then this brief shot of cold this week. It would be nice if besides the Strato warming we could also get the MJO to crank up and make a run into phase 6-7 at a decent amplitude. THAT could really help bring the pattern *most* in this region would want and put a end to the snow drought for some as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IWXwx Posted December 30, 2012 Author Share Posted December 30, 2012 That's the key. Getting into the core winter months, I'll always take warm/wet over cold/dry. Makes it much easier to run into something big even if snowpack doesn't become knee deep. This. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmc76 Posted December 30, 2012 Share Posted December 30, 2012 say what you will about the lack of storms coming our way, if the cold air hangs on, this is going to be an ideal week for pond hockey It's been a while for this Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wishforsnow Posted December 30, 2012 Share Posted December 30, 2012 Houghton has logged 10-20 inches in December... That is unheard of.... They usually see 50-100. Let's get the LES going Jon The first snows all melted from the warm and rain early December. I only have about 4 inches in my yard here in Hancock. Twin Lakes looks to have around a foot. The trails are bad. I seen quite a bit of sleders out at Twin Lakes Saturday, which was a surprise. So what snow the trails have will be ruin. Was suppose to get 4 inches last night, but the mesolow went to far north of us. Then it looks we will be lucky to get an inch tomorrow and tomorrow night. Then Wednesday when the colder air comes the air will be too dry to support much lake effect. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jonger Posted December 31, 2012 Share Posted December 31, 2012 The first snows all melted from the warm and rain early December. I only have about 4 inches in my yard here in Hancock. Twin Lakes looks to have around a foot. The trails are bad. I seen quite a bit of sleders out at Twin Lakes Saturday, which was a surprise. So what snow the trails have will be ruin. Was suppose to get 4 inches last night, but the mesolow went to far north of us. Then it looks we will be lucky to get an inch tomorrow and tomorrow night. Then Wednesday when the colder air comes the air will be too dry to support much lake effect. Temps have been seasonal, but we need below normal temps to get good LES... And that hasn't happened. Low pressures and the post passage front is great for triggering LES... Nothing so far. Jon Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SpartyOn Posted December 31, 2012 Share Posted December 31, 2012 Does look boring but I agree, better than 40F and fog. I guarentee some in this area will say if it "shakes up" the pattern and we lose our snowcover as a result, so be it. But give me cold because SOMETHING usually pops up. Is it impossible to be dry for two weeks? No. But extremely unlikely imo. Now, we may have two (or more, yuck) weeks free of any significant weather, but we have a nice snowpack down so anything that acts as a refresher is good imo. Snowpack may grow stale around the edges, but in undisturbed areas, white is white, and white is winter lol. I dont think on Dec 20th that most would believe all of SE MI would have seen anywhere from 8-15" of snow by Dec 30th. What Im hoping for is a massive LES outbreak for the snow-starved in W MI, and clipper express to finally give Chicago some snow...no west-cutting snowpack-melting storms please! This Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nelson Posted December 31, 2012 Share Posted December 31, 2012 GFS hinting at something in the 10th-12th time frame. 12z euro also showing digging trough during the same time frame. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted December 31, 2012 Share Posted December 31, 2012 I'm hoping the split flow relaxes by then, since it looks exceedingly boring up until that point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Harry Posted December 31, 2012 Share Posted December 31, 2012 Temps have been seasonal, but we need below normal temps to get good LES... And that hasn't happened. Low pressures and the post passage front is great for triggering LES... Nothing so far. Jon Yep. Getting grazed by Arctic air ( with the bulk of it going to our east ) is not gonna do jack for LES. We need it to drop into the N.Rockies/Plains/GL and then spread on east. Also helps to have a nice UL *sitting* over top/near Superior to help with the moisture supply and a nice 1040+ Arctic high sliding down into KS and then across the Gulfcoast states. Have not seen that in what seems like eons. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SpartyOn Posted December 31, 2012 Share Posted December 31, 2012 Just need a phased system to drop down and release the arctic air. DTX not 100% sold on total torch intot the extended. Was a glimmer of hope im an otherwise awful extended. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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