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Medium/Long Range Discussion Part 2


IWXwx

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Thanks for this analysis QVectorman. I'll admit most discussion regarding SSW goes right over my head. Regardless, I'm looking forward to the potential cold snap. :)

NP...glad to share the knowledge. As far as the 18z and the Jan 3 cold the GFS has ebbed and waned on it several times so I wouldn't pronounce it dead just yet. I would wait another 2 or 3 runs for consistency. Euro still has the cold air there, just spilling it into the NE rather than GLKS first. So there is a bit of hope. If anyone has been following this for the past 2 weeks they know the models have been inconsistent from 0z to 12z to 18z on the placement of this air any how.

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Not that I'm taking this to the bank but what a fricken disaster of a run. Hopefully we see more action affecting the subforum.

That doesn't bode well for the current snow hole/drought!

Hoping this is/was an off run.

---

Chicago Wx: I think the 3.1" at Milwaukee is correct there were numerous 2-4" amounts recorded in SE WI nearer to the lake today. I was in Racine and they definitely had 2 or so inches down from this system.

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Don't lose faith just yet brethren...it doesn't look good but not all hope is lost just yet...

000

FXUS63 KDTX 300801

AFDDTX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI

301 AM EST SUN DEC 30 2012

&&

.LONG TERM...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY

WHAT IS OF CONCERN DURING THIS PERIOD IS A LARGE AREA OF VERY COLD

AIR RESIDING IN CANADA WHERE 850 MB TEMPERATURES ARE -20 TO -30 CELSIUS.

DESPITE PREVIOUS RUNS BRINGING THIS COLD AIR SOUTH INTO THE CENTRAL GREAT

LAKES...RECENT RUNS HAVE BACKED OFF THIS SOLUTION AND KEEP THE COLD

AIR BOTTLED UP IN CANADA. WHILE THE COLDEST AIR IS FORECAST TO STAY

TO THE NORTH...ENOUGH COLD AIR IS EXPECTED TO FILTER INTO SOUTHEAST

MICHIGAN TO KEEP LOW TEMPERATURES IN THE SINGLE DIGITS WITH DAYTIME

HIGHS AROUND 20 DEGREES THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK UNTIL WARMER AIR

MAKES ITS WAY INTO THE REGION ON SATURDAY...BUMPING TEMPERATURES

BACK UP CLOSER TO NORMAL LEVELS. ALTHOUGH THE MODELS KEEP THIS COLD

AIR TO THE NORTH SUBSEQUENT RUNS WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED AS THE

COLD AIR WILL BE CLOSE ENOUGH TO THE AREA TO SURGE SOUTH IF ONE OF

THESE UPSTREAM LOWS CAN TRACK SOUTH AND OPEN THE DOOR FOR THE COLD

AIR TO SETTLE IN ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES.

plus several 0z GEFS and 21z SREF ensemble members along with the Canadian are hinting that one of the lows can track south and unleash -20C 850s down through MI. Either way even with warmer solution middle of the week will still see highs only in the low 20's vs. the upper teens that was being forecasted with colder solutions for lower MI....which is nothing to complain about.

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I personally don't want the arctic cold. Not very often abnormal cold brings substancial snow to this region. If the temps stay like this I feel a good chance for more snows. Small they might be but snow no less.

Had some more big mood flakes which covered everything again this AM. Not forecasted but happy to see them in the air. Perhaps this is trend.... Surprise and here comes another round. To go with the NW shifting of southern systems.

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Does look boring but I agree, better than 40F and fog. I guarentee some in this area will say if it "shakes up" the pattern and we lose our snowcover as a result, so be it. But give me cold because SOMETHING usually pops up. Is it impossible to be dry for two weeks? No. But extremely unlikely imo. Now, we may have two (or more, yuck) weeks free of any significant weather, but we have a nice snowpack down so anything that acts as a refresher is good imo. Snowpack may grow stale around the edges, but in undisturbed areas, white is white, and white is winter lol. I dont think on Dec 20th that most would believe all of SE MI would have seen anywhere from 8-15" of snow by Dec 30th. What Im hoping for is a massive LES outbreak for the snow-starved in W MI, and clipper express to finally give Chicago some snow...no west-cutting snowpack-melting storms please!

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We now have plenty of snow on the ground here, so I wouldnt mind arctic cold for a while because its a very wintry landscape. It does not bode well for those snow-drought areas though, as cold/dry is not fun. If only we could get the clipper express going!

Unfortunately, though, recent runs of the models have been backing off on the cold as well.

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GEFS really bring the action back after Jan 8th or so. Unfortunately, not all the precip accompanying that action will be frozen.

Not surprising, but I'll be happy to see some action back at that point, and given it's January, there will be some cold air and snowcover in place ahead of that action, which doesn't hurt.

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Does look boring but I agree, better than 40F and fog. I guarentee some in this area will say if it "shakes up" the pattern and we lose our snowcover as a result, so be it. But give me cold because SOMETHING usually pops up. Is it impossible to be dry for two weeks? No. But extremely unlikely imo. Now, we may have two (or more, yuck) weeks free of any significant weather, but we have a nice snowpack down so anything that acts as a refresher is good imo. Snowpack may grow stale around the edges, but in undisturbed areas, white is white, and white is winter lol. I dont think on Dec 20th that most would believe all of SE MI would have seen anywhere from 8-15" of snow by Dec 30th. What Im hoping for is a massive LES outbreak for the snow-starved in W MI, and clipper express to finally give Chicago some snow...no west-cutting snowpack-melting storms please!

+1

Not exactly the medium range, but...

Small chance of a system coming down from Saskatchewan on Thursday. Might good for a few inches for the western Lakes and further NW.

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Does look boring but I agree, better than 40F and fog. I guarentee some in this area will say if it "shakes up" the pattern and we lose our snowcover as a result, so be it. But give me cold because SOMETHING usually pops up. Is it impossible to be dry for two weeks? No. But extremely unlikely imo. Now, we may have two (or more, yuck) weeks free of any significant weather, but we have a nice snowpack down so anything that acts as a refresher is good imo. Snowpack may grow stale around the edges, but in undisturbed areas, white is white, and white is winter lol. I dont think on Dec 20th that most would believe all of SE MI would have seen anywhere from 8-15" of snow by Dec 30th. What Im hoping for is a massive LES outbreak for the snow-starved in W MI, and clipper express to finally give Chicago some snow...no west-cutting snowpack-melting storms please!

Houghton has logged 10-20 inches in December... That is unheard of.... They usually see 50-100. Let's get the LES going

Jon

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The top is the Euro from 12/29 0z run when it portrayed the best cold air for Jan 4 0z. The bottom is the 12/30 12z run...it's still bringing the same magnitude of cold air over the MW just more concentrated shot. In fact it has a pocket of -22 to -24C over the UP which is colder than the previous coldest run and pushes the -16 to -18C to N. IN and N. OH vs. the 1229 run that took it to southern MI. It's obviously not as widespread but gives credence to the idea that this cold shot is not dead yet. The Euro is hanging in there with it.

post-3697-0-92850000-1356896526_thumb.jp

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Our local pond is lumpy due to the snow on soft un-mature ice. Going to try to flood it with some fresh water perhaps as early as tomorrow. I hope we can have a block party on it and enjoy some fine cooking on the open wood grill. Nothing is better than some dogs, burgers, onion rings and fries while skating/hockey.

I think it will be snowing again before very long .....

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Not surprising, but I'll be happy to see some action back at that point, and given it's January, there will be some cold air and snowcover in place ahead of that action, which doesn't hurt.

That's the key. Getting into the core winter months, I'll always take warm/wet over cold/dry. Makes it much easier to run into something big even if snowpack doesn't become knee deep.

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The top is the Euro from 12/29 0z run when it portrayed the best cold air for Jan 4 0z. The bottom is the 12/30 12z run...it's still bringing the same magnitude of cold air over the MW just more concentrated shot. In fact it has a pocket of -22 to -24C over the UP which is colder than the previous coldest run and pushes the -16 to -18C to N. IN and N. OH vs. the 1229 run that took it to southern MI. It's obviously not as widespread but gives credence to the idea that this cold shot is not dead yet. The Euro is hanging in there with it.

post-3697-0-92850000-1356896526_thumb.jp

Needs to go back to the way it was as that offered us a decent LES set up on this side of the lake. Ofcourse i know that is not happening. With the MJO sneaking into the warmer phases ( 3-4 and maybe 5 ) i am not so optimistic about cold/snow in the area for a while anyways other then this brief shot of cold this week. It would be nice if besides the Strato warming we could also get the MJO to crank up and make a run into phase 6-7 at a decent amplitude. THAT could really help bring the pattern *most* in this region would want and put a end to the snow drought for some as well.

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Houghton has logged 10-20 inches in December... That is unheard of.... They usually see 50-100. Let's get the LES going

Jon

The first snows all melted from the warm and rain early December. I only have about 4 inches in my yard here in Hancock. Twin Lakes looks to have around a foot. The trails are bad. I seen quite a bit of sleders out at Twin Lakes Saturday, which was a surprise. So what snow the trails have will be ruin. Was suppose to get 4 inches last night, but the mesolow went to far north of us. Then it looks we will be lucky to get an inch tomorrow and tomorrow night. Then Wednesday when the colder air comes the air will be too dry to support much lake effect.

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The first snows all melted from the warm and rain early December. I only have about 4 inches in my yard here in Hancock. Twin Lakes looks to have around a foot. The trails are bad. I seen quite a bit of sleders out at Twin Lakes Saturday, which was a surprise. So what snow the trails have will be ruin. Was suppose to get 4 inches last night, but the mesolow went to far north of us. Then it looks we will be lucky to get an inch tomorrow and tomorrow night. Then Wednesday when the colder air comes the air will be too dry to support much lake effect.

Temps have been seasonal, but we need below normal temps to get good LES... And that hasn't happened. Low pressures and the post passage front is great for triggering LES... Nothing so far.

Jon

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Does look boring but I agree, better than 40F and fog. I guarentee some in this area will say if it "shakes up" the pattern and we lose our snowcover as a result, so be it. But give me cold because SOMETHING usually pops up. Is it impossible to be dry for two weeks? No. But extremely unlikely imo. Now, we may have two (or more, yuck) weeks free of any significant weather, but we have a nice snowpack down so anything that acts as a refresher is good imo. Snowpack may grow stale around the edges, but in undisturbed areas, white is white, and white is winter lol. I dont think on Dec 20th that most would believe all of SE MI would have seen anywhere from 8-15" of snow by Dec 30th. What Im hoping for is a massive LES outbreak for the snow-starved in W MI, and clipper express to finally give Chicago some snow...no west-cutting snowpack-melting storms please!

This

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Temps have been seasonal, but we need below normal temps to get good LES... And that hasn't happened. Low pressures and the post passage front is great for triggering LES... Nothing so far.

Jon

Yep. Getting grazed by Arctic air ( with the bulk of it going to our east ) is not gonna do jack for LES. We need it to drop into the N.Rockies/Plains/GL and then spread on east. Also helps to have a nice UL *sitting* over top/near Superior to help with the moisture supply and a nice 1040+ Arctic high sliding down into KS and then across the Gulfcoast states. Have not seen that in what seems like eons.

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