Hoosier Posted December 19, 2012 Share Posted December 19, 2012 Just digging into the 18z GFS a bit...what a weenie solution. There's 80 kts in the CCB over southern Wisconsin around day 9. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted December 19, 2012 Share Posted December 19, 2012 I think canuck hijacked tonight's GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted December 19, 2012 Share Posted December 19, 2012 I think canuck hijacked tonight's GFS. Good. He needs it worse than anybody. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted December 19, 2012 Share Posted December 19, 2012 I think canuck hijacked tonight's GFS. I think the way the trough splits with the amount of jet energy coming ashore is completely unrealistic, as much as I which SSC to get the hammer laid out on him with a snowstorm of crippling magnitude. The jet structure doesn't match the surface especially at the time the trough splits which leads to errors down the road. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MidwestChaser Posted December 19, 2012 Share Posted December 19, 2012 GFS waaay east with the Christmas storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted December 19, 2012 Share Posted December 19, 2012 GGEM not buying it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted December 19, 2012 Share Posted December 19, 2012 All I want for Christmas is the 0z EURO/6z GFS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
toronto blizzard Posted December 19, 2012 Share Posted December 19, 2012 All I want for Christmas is the 0z EURO/6z GFS Best x-mas present ever if it were to happen. 00z GGEM not bad also. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted December 19, 2012 Share Posted December 19, 2012 Regardless of what specifically is happening in anyones backyard....after the small (but heavy) snowstorm in MSP a week or two ago, we now have the first major winter storm hitting the midwest tomorrow, then another appears on tap just after Christmas, and another possible around New Years. Does it need to be said anymore that this is NOT last year? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
McDude Posted December 21, 2012 Share Posted December 21, 2012 Skilling showed 3 storms last night. Then he said, "by our count that is 2 possible snow makers." If anyone wants to point me in the right direction I'd appreciate it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gosaints Posted December 21, 2012 Share Posted December 21, 2012 GFS puts the nation in an icebox Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SpartyOn Posted December 21, 2012 Share Posted December 21, 2012 GFS puts the nation in an icebox Its a fairly impressive solution. Looks like the storm around the 26th is the last in the series of a noticeable pattern change. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
QVectorman Posted December 21, 2012 Share Posted December 21, 2012 Since things are slow in here I figured I would add my posts from yesterday in the NE forum here to give some thing for discussion or give some hope With the MJO going into phase 1 and the 5-7 day lag for MJO induced waves to traverse the eastern US it would set us up for a wave to arrive in the east between Dec. 18-20 which is progged on the 180hr GFS and Euro moving across the upper Midwest or Great Lakes. The same wave also ushers in relatively "colder" air and plays nicely into the idea I spoke of the other day in my post about the pocket of relatively "colder" air arriving during the Dec. 21-23 time frame based off of GWO analogs for the eastern US.Using that same concept for the GWO I expect another batch of colder air Dec. 27-30. And Following the spike in the 10 and 30 mb temps that peaked back on Dec. 6 seems we should see a good shot of colder air Dec 30-Jan 3. I don't know if this wave was directly attributable to the MJO since some raise valid arguments that this wasn't a true MJO signal in the phase 1 region but we have our wave moving through the GLKS as discussed on Dec. 13 and temps for example in Detroit will be dropping from the upper 40's Thursday-Dec. 20 down to highs in the low 30's for Dec. 22. GFS and Euro both hinting at another wave moving through the GLKS Dec. 27-28 which would allow colder air to settle into the region for Dec. 28 by current models. Models indicate another pocket of cold air arriving to reinforce the prior batch with a short wave Jan 2-3 across the Eastern US which falls into the Dec. 30-Jan 3 date I laid out previously. The Euro and GFS both give credence to this time frame with a shortwave modeled off the coast of CA for 0z Dec. 30 giving it 4-5 days for it make it out into the Plains to the GLKS/EC. Although the GFS has been wavering in the magnitude of the cold air for this time frame, which I was expecting to be some of the coldest of the season guessing along the lines of -15C to -20C 850mb over southern Michigan and eastward. So the GFS is still not modeling that type of air mass as of right now I will leave that TBD as we get closer. With the newest GWO numbers today the latest analogs indicate a 15-20F warm up in sfc temps Jan 3-Jan 6 compared to prior days highs across Midwest or NE (the Dec. 31-Jan 3 cold episode) and analogs suggest a stair stepped 15-20F temperature fall behind the warm up 1-2 days after that, meaning another spell of colder air Jan 5-8. I extended my outlook through Jan 8 on Dec. 14. I still feel comfortable with those dates and with the newest GWO analogs and latest 10 and 30 mb temp forecast it appears the time frame between Jan 8-10 will see a warm up over the east with a short wave moving through the east Jan 10-11 with cooler air dropping in behind it for Jan 10-13 across the MW/GLKS and then pockets of cooler air arriving Jan 15-19 time frame for the east followed by a second reinforcement of cooler air Jan 20-24. My GWO analogs only take me out to Jan 9 so there may be another short wave or two to add to the 2 already expected for the Jan 9-24 time frame. I will update as the newest GWO numbers come out over the next week and half. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SpartyOn Posted December 21, 2012 Share Posted December 21, 2012 Since things are slow in here I figured I would add my posts from yesterday in the NE forum here to give some thing for discussion or give some hope I don't know if this wave was directly attributable to the MJO since some raise valid arguments that this wasn't a true MJO signal in the phase 1 region but we have our wave moving through the GLKS as discussed on Dec. 13 and temps for example in Detroit will be dropping from the upper 40's Thursday-Dec. 20 down to highs in the low 30's for Dec. 22. GFS and Euro both hinting at another wave moving through the GLKS Dec. 27-28 which would allow colder air to settle into the region for Dec. 28 by current models. Models indicate another pocket of cold air arriving to reinforce the prior batch with a short wave Jan 2-3 across the Eastern US which falls into the Dec. 30-Jan 3 date I laid out previously. The Euro and GFS both give credence to this time frame with a shortwave modeled off the coast of CA for 0z Dec. 30 giving it 4-5 days for it make it out into the Plains to the GLKS/EC. Although the GFS has been wavering in the magnitude of the cold air for this time frame, which I was expecting to be some of the coldest of the season guessing along the lines of -15C to -20C 850mb over southern Michigan and eastward. So the GFS is still not modeling that type of air mass as of right now I will leave that TBD as we get closer. I extended my outlook through Jan 8 on Dec. 14. I still feel comfortable with those dates and with the newest GWO analogs and latest 10 and 30 mb temp forecast it appears the time frame between Jan 7-10 will see a warm up over the east with a short wave moving through the east Jan 10-11 with cooler air dropping in behind it for Jan 10-13 across the MW/GLKS and then pockets of cooler air arriving Jan 15-19 time frame for the east followed by a second reinforcement of cooler air Jan 20-24. My GWO analogs only take me out to Jan 9 so there may be another short wave or two to add to the 2 already expected for the Jan 9-24 time frame. I will update as the newest GWO numbers come out over the next week and half. Thank you for posting this. Exceptional write up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
QVectorman Posted December 21, 2012 Share Posted December 21, 2012 Thank you for posting this. Exceptional write up. Thanks! Just as a side note looking at the latest 0/12z GFS and 0z Euro runs, it looks like we are running towards the back end of these time windows...with the coldest air continuing to be modeled to move over the Upper MS Valley Jan. 2-3. And the 12z GFS hinting at the warm up occurring Jan. 6 ahead of the shortwave that will usher in the colder air for Jan.7/8 time frame. We will see how this plays out. But for now I will stick to the time windows I previously laid out...the players can still change between now and Dec. 31 to Jan 3 leading to a change in arrival time of the colder air in the Dec. 31-Jan. 3 window. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Minnesota Meso Posted December 22, 2012 Share Posted December 22, 2012 I just posted this outlook on the Minnesota forecaster site.... "'m about to make a fool of myself, but this is how I see things setting up compared to my winter forecast that I put out on this site around early Nov. I called for 38" of snow for the season and the Winter temps (Dec-Feb) around -2° compared to the seasonal mean based on a thirty year period from 1980-2010. That was based on strong sea surface temp anomalies along the west coast of Canada (very cold), and equally strong sea surface temps just off the NE CONUS coast (very warm.) That led me to think that NW Canada would be very cold, allowing very cold temps to set up to our northwest. At the same time I thought a very strong blocking feature would set up between Greenland and the Hudson Bay area, (a strong ridge) if you will, causing a very strong negative west based North Atlantic Oscillation, commonly referred to as the NOA. The NOA is comprised of blocking to the east of Greenland called the east based block, and normally the west based block will set up along the southern tip of Greenland, but this winter I thought it would set up well west of Greenland, which we now have. Of course it gets more complicated than that, but the long and short of it this, the pattern shows no real change through the first half of January and it may last through the end of that month. So it looks like cold and dry, with maybe a couple of clippers coming in to drop 1-3" of snow. So that sets us up for February which will most likely be a transition month with a few more minor snowfalls as we approach March. Could March bring us a couple of major winter storms around tourney time that we are famous for, but few of us remember? Stay tuned, I think so. By the way, the chances that the Euro shows of snowfall the next weekend, 28,29 time frame will likely not happen as it seems to go against it's own tellecontion indices. So there it is my fool's forecast for the rest of the winter." Hope most of you guys enjoy your winter, I think your in for a dozy... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Minnesota Meso Posted December 22, 2012 Share Posted December 22, 2012 Oh and one other thing. There is a new model out there called the FIM, I've had it bookmarked for the last couple of years. Although I have never really looked at it, MPX has said it has been a useful tool in it's AFD'S, I believe it was the first model that showed the southern track that dumped 16" over a lot of the MPX CWA for the Dec 8-9th storm. Here is the link: http://fim.noaa.gov/FIMscp/Welcome.cgi?dsKey=fim&domain=236&run_time=19+Dec+2010+-+00Z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hm8 Posted December 22, 2012 Share Posted December 22, 2012 FWIW, models have been showing yet another storm after the one late this week...although most have been suppressing it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chinook Posted December 24, 2012 Share Posted December 24, 2012 FWIW, models have been showing yet another storm after the one late this week...although most have been suppressing it. 12z ECMWF shows a strong low at Memphis on Dec 29... tracking near OHIO River on Dec 29 and 30.... very very interesting, perhaps a near repeat of the storm on Dec 26 and 27. I like it. I may get a chance to do shoveling two times in the OHIO area, perhaps without needing to do a regional "storm chase." This almost never happens while I am on vacation. wait. I just discovered that there's an entire thread about this, with a weird name. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted December 25, 2012 Share Posted December 25, 2012 Too bad the flow is so active. Nothing has a chance to slow down, dig, and develop. D3-5 system could have been something to watch otherwise. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IWXwx Posted December 25, 2012 Author Share Posted December 25, 2012 Too bad the flow is so active. Nothing has a chance to slow down, dig, and develop. D3-5 system could have been something to watch otherwise. Yeah, I have been watching the GFS. After D5, it just shows troughiness around the Lakes. Could be good for a couple of clippers with that setup. Then about the 4th-6th, it goes more zonal and keeps showing a storm in that timeframe. So, barring any changes with upcoming weekend system, it's gonna be kinda boring for a few days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted December 25, 2012 Share Posted December 25, 2012 Yeah, I have been watching the GFS. After D5, it just shows troughiness around the Lakes. Could be good for a couple of clippers with that setup. Then about the 4th-6th, it goes more zonal and keeps showing a storm in that timeframe. So, barring any changes with upcoming weekend system, it's gonna be kinda boring for a few days. Well, if I'm to have boring, I'll take it cold. Should keep a lot of whatever falls tomorrow. And hey, maybe, just maybe, it'll actually start to look and feel like winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
toronto blizzard Posted December 25, 2012 Share Posted December 25, 2012 Too bad the flow is so active. Nothing has a chance to slow down, dig, and develop. D3-5 system could have been something to watch otherwise. Some of the GFS ensemble members are interesting regarding the system on saturday Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted December 26, 2012 Share Posted December 26, 2012 looks brutally boring Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted December 26, 2012 Share Posted December 26, 2012 most boring med-long range since November. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wisconsinwx Posted December 26, 2012 Share Posted December 26, 2012 most boring med-long range since November. That is true, but chances are some light snow systems will pop up to at least keep us somewhat interested. 1-3" systems might be all we can expect through the next couple weeks, but you have to accept the nickle and diming that happens in the Midwest. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted December 27, 2012 Share Posted December 27, 2012 This would be a good stretch to watch for Clippers and of the like. One of these nickel and diming events might end being something noteworthy like the Boxing Day storm of 2009 that was mentioned in the December thread. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted December 27, 2012 Share Posted December 27, 2012 nah...doesn't even look like a good clipper pattern Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hm8 Posted December 27, 2012 Share Posted December 27, 2012 Thought this was supposed to be the winter of endless clippers. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WestMichigan Posted December 27, 2012 Share Posted December 27, 2012 Maybe it was supposed to be the winter of clippers ending. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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