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Medium/Long Range Discussion Part 2


IWXwx

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System on the GFS to follow this looks like clone of what we have now. 00z even followed a like track to what we have now. Build an ark Indy to Detroit to Toronto.

Even though I Lean on a more of a Rain event. Don't fold your cards yet. Will have stronger blocking and Cold air established.

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I feel the same way...probably worth getting a thread going once the current threat moves out.

About the only way I could see something not happening is if the trough dives into Mexico and never comes out. Other than that, there is a lot to like in terms of overall potential.

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Exactly, call for rain right now are obvious trolls. I know some are kidding in the trolls but others might actually be serious which is just sad.

I would honestly expect this one to come further south than the current storm due to the baroclinic zone/snowcover area being shoved a bit south. But who knows. It's much too early.

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I would honestly expect this one to come further south than the current storm due to the baroclinic zone/snowcover area being shoved a bit south. But who knows. It's much too early.

At worst this won't solely be a "rain" event. At this point (save the posts i know its early) Frz Rain/Sleet/snow/rain combo.

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I would honestly expect this one to come further south than the current storm due to the baroclinic zone/snowcover area being shoved a bit south. But who knows. It's much too early.

Very early indeed. I'm not sure how valid the preexisting snowcover argument would be in this case though...it's not like there will be deep snowcover extending well south of us.

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I would honestly expect this one to come further south than the current storm due to the baroclinic zone/snowcover area being shoved a bit south. But who knows. It's much too early.

I'd agree with this along with the stair step method, first storm hit MSP this next one will hit MKE/ORD/DVN the one after that should be South of those areas which will be getting hit Thursday.

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Very early indeed. I'm not sure how valid the preexisting snowcover argument would be in this case though...it's not like there will be deep snowcover extending well south of us.

True...but regardless of anyone's IMBY concerns, expansive snow cover to the north could increase the N-S temp gradient even further...fueling a stronger storm.

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Very early indeed. I'm not sure how valid the preexisting snowcover argument would be in this case though...it's not like there will be deep snowcover extending well south of us.

I see your point, but I think with the mean trough axis sliding East, I don't see this being a MN/WI/IA special. The Euro 12z today was probably the least likely solution you will see from this.

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