Hoosier Posted December 18, 2012 Share Posted December 18, 2012 don't worry it hasn't vanished yet EDIT: dang That thing is the real deal. Obviously details will be worked out but as far as storm/no storm I think there are less failure modes in a setup like this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted December 18, 2012 Share Posted December 18, 2012 Could be a helluva soaker here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted December 18, 2012 Share Posted December 18, 2012 Could be a helluva soaker here. Would front end ice be a victory? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted December 18, 2012 Share Posted December 18, 2012 Would front end ice be a victory? Pass. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted December 18, 2012 Share Posted December 18, 2012 That thing is the real deal. Obviously details will be worked out but as far as storm/no storm I think there are less failure modes in a setup like this. I feel the same way...probably worth getting a thread going once the current threat moves out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LizardMafia Posted December 18, 2012 Share Posted December 18, 2012 Pass. Come'on Man! Where is your sense of adventure? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SpartyOn Posted December 18, 2012 Share Posted December 18, 2012 System on the GFS to follow this looks like clone of what we have now. 00z even followed a like track to what we have now. Build an ark Indy to Detroit to Toronto. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted December 18, 2012 Share Posted December 18, 2012 Ridiculous wouldn't be strong enough to describe the LLJ on the GFS at 216 hours. 850 mb winds are over 90 kts in KY with 90 kts even being progged at 900 mb. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted December 18, 2012 Share Posted December 18, 2012 Would love to see how many sigmas above normal that thing is. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted December 18, 2012 Share Posted December 18, 2012 FWIW from the 0z Euro Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted December 18, 2012 Share Posted December 18, 2012 FWIW 0z Euro op had a large area of 12-24" with this next system across eastern KS/MO/IA with 36" in sw IA, whatever falls tomorrow added into those. Good amounts here too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmc76 Posted December 18, 2012 Share Posted December 18, 2012 System on the GFS to follow this looks like clone of what we have now. 00z even followed a like track to what we have now. Build an ark Indy to Detroit to Toronto. Even though I Lean on a more of a Rain event. Don't fold your cards yet. Will have stronger blocking and Cold air established. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted December 18, 2012 Share Posted December 18, 2012 I feel the same way...probably worth getting a thread going once the current threat moves out. About the only way I could see something not happening is if the trough dives into Mexico and never comes out. Other than that, there is a lot to like in terms of overall potential. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted December 18, 2012 Share Posted December 18, 2012 Any talk about track this far out better not be even half serious. Absolutely zero excuse for that. However, a big storm looks next to imminent, and it also seems this could be a nasty ice storm for some. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted December 18, 2012 Share Posted December 18, 2012 lol, 12z Euro with a virtual repeat for next week at this time. Awesome. Well, not to a tee of course, but somewhat same general theme. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SpartyOn Posted December 18, 2012 Share Posted December 18, 2012 Any talk about track this far out better not be even half serious. Absolutely zero excuse for that. However, a big storm looks next to imminent, and it also seems this could be a nasty ice storm for some. Its gonna rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SpartyOn Posted December 18, 2012 Share Posted December 18, 2012 Your not very optimistic............... Trends die hard. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OHweather Posted December 18, 2012 Share Posted December 18, 2012 Let's see how long we can keep the ridiculous LLJ on the warm side of this thing on the models. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmc76 Posted December 18, 2012 Share Posted December 18, 2012 Its gonna rain. WAA snows FTW! then rain... of course Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chargers09 Posted December 18, 2012 Share Posted December 18, 2012 Lets pick a track this far out for the next one lololololol. Really. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
beavis1729 Posted December 18, 2012 Share Posted December 18, 2012 It's still a ways out...but the 18z GFS at 180 hours (Christmas night) shows an amazing temperature gradient across TX. Progged 850mb temps range from -10C at the northern tip to 22C at the southern tip. That's a 32C (58F) difference. You don't see that too often. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
daddylonglegs Posted December 19, 2012 Share Posted December 19, 2012 For Saukville: With a large area of snow cover, its going to be easy to bring in very cold air. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted December 19, 2012 Share Posted December 19, 2012 Lets pick a track this far out for the next one lololololol. Really. Exactly, call for rain right now are obvious trolls. I know some are kidding in the trolls but others might actually be serious which is just sad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chargers09 Posted December 19, 2012 Share Posted December 19, 2012 Exactly, call for rain right now are obvious trolls. I know some are kidding in the trolls but others might actually be serious which is just sad. I would honestly expect this one to come further south than the current storm due to the baroclinic zone/snowcover area being shoved a bit south. But who knows. It's much too early. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmc76 Posted December 19, 2012 Share Posted December 19, 2012 I would honestly expect this one to come further south than the current storm due to the baroclinic zone/snowcover area being shoved a bit south. But who knows. It's much too early. At worst this won't solely be a "rain" event. At this point (save the posts i know its early) Frz Rain/Sleet/snow/rain combo. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted December 19, 2012 Share Posted December 19, 2012 I would honestly expect this one to come further south than the current storm due to the baroclinic zone/snowcover area being shoved a bit south. But who knows. It's much too early. Very early indeed. I'm not sure how valid the preexisting snowcover argument would be in this case though...it's not like there will be deep snowcover extending well south of us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted December 19, 2012 Share Posted December 19, 2012 I would honestly expect this one to come further south than the current storm due to the baroclinic zone/snowcover area being shoved a bit south. But who knows. It's much too early. I'd agree with this along with the stair step method, first storm hit MSP this next one will hit MKE/ORD/DVN the one after that should be South of those areas which will be getting hit Thursday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted December 19, 2012 Share Posted December 19, 2012 There's gonna be explosive cyclogenesis potential if the trough digs as far south as it looks like it may. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
beavis1729 Posted December 19, 2012 Share Posted December 19, 2012 Very early indeed. I'm not sure how valid the preexisting snowcover argument would be in this case though...it's not like there will be deep snowcover extending well south of us. True...but regardless of anyone's IMBY concerns, expansive snow cover to the north could increase the N-S temp gradient even further...fueling a stronger storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted December 19, 2012 Share Posted December 19, 2012 Very early indeed. I'm not sure how valid the preexisting snowcover argument would be in this case though...it's not like there will be deep snowcover extending well south of us. I see your point, but I think with the mean trough axis sliding East, I don't see this being a MN/WI/IA special. The Euro 12z today was probably the least likely solution you will see from this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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