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Medium/Long Range Discussion Part 2


IWXwx

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http://origin.cpc.nc...1215.NAsfcT.gif

Weenie map? Look at Alaska week 3 and 4. Does this happen or not? All I know is there is a lot of cold up there and in western Canada waiting...

Sure is nice to look at I guess... I don't even know what to do when this model trends colder with every run. I guess wait until next week... and then the next week...

http://www.cpc.ncep....1216.201301.gif

Thanks for posting these! Even if Tropical wasnt banned, you knows those favorite links of his wouldnt be posted here :lol:

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http://origin.cpc.nc...1215.NAsfcT.gif

Weenie map? Look at Alaska week 3 and 4. Does this happen or not? All I know is there is a lot of cold up there and in western Canada waiting...

Sure is nice to look at I guess... I don't even know what to do when this model trends colder with every run. I guess wait until next week... and then the next week...

http://www.cpc.ncep....1216.201301.gif

Week 3 and 4 have been cold since Mid-November. It's like a treadmill or a carrot on a stick.

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Week 3 and 4 have been cold since Mid-November. It's like a treadmill or a carrot on a stick.

Agreed, but unlike last year Canada has an above normal snowpack, western Canada and Alaska have had ridiculous cold anamolies, something's gotta give sooner or later. Or not... I don't know, but MPX was referring to this in this afternoon's AFD:

THE LATTER PART OF THE WORK WEEK...AND INTO NEXT WEEKEND LOOKS TO

BE DRY WITH SEASONABLE TEMPS. THE VERY COLD ARCTIC AIR MASS THAT

WAS BEEN PERSISTENT ACROSS ALASKA AND THE NORTHWEST TERRITORIES OF

CANADA WILL EVENTUALLY BREAK OFF AND MOVE TO THE SOUTH. WHEN WILL

THIS HAPPEN REMAINS IN QUESTION...BUT DO TO THE PROXIMITY OF DEEP

SNOW COVER IN SOUTHERN CANADA...AND THE STRONG SUB-TROPICAL JET

WHICH HAS BEEN THE MOST ACTIVE RECENTLY...WILL PLAY A MAJOR ROLE

IN THE WEEK OF THE 24TH. ..JLT..

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Week 3 and 4 have been cold since Mid-November. It's like a treadmill or a carrot on a stick.

With all due respect that is a complete lie. I check those maps almost daily, just for fun, and in true cfs fashion they change on a near daily basis, but by far torch has ruled the week 3 & 4. They have had several days where they showed cold, but more often than not weeks 3 & 4 have been torch. You can look at the previous 2 weeks of daily cfs output.

http://origin.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/people/sweaver/cfs_fcst/

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With all due respect that is a complete lie. I check those maps almost daily, just for fun, and in true cfs fashion they change on a near daily basis, but by far torch has ruled the week 3 & 4. They have had several days where they showed cold, but more often than not weeks 3 & 4 have been torch. You can look at the previous 2 weeks of daily cfs output.

http://origin.cpc.nc...eaver/cfs_fcst/

+1

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Agreed, but unlike last year Canada has an above normal snowpack, western Canada and Alaska have had ridiculous cold anamolies, something's gotta give sooner or later. Or not... I don't know, but MPX was referring to this in this afternoon's AFD:

THE LATTER PART OF THE WORK WEEK...AND INTO NEXT WEEKEND LOOKS TO

BE DRY WITH SEASONABLE TEMPS. THE VERY COLD ARCTIC AIR MASS THAT

WAS BEEN PERSISTENT ACROSS ALASKA AND THE NORTHWEST TERRITORIES OF

CANADA WILL EVENTUALLY BREAK OFF AND MOVE TO THE SOUTH. WHEN WILL

THIS HAPPEN REMAINS IN QUESTION...BUT DO TO THE PROXIMITY OF DEEP

SNOW COVER IN SOUTHERN CANADA...AND THE STRONG SUB-TROPICAL JET

WHICH HAS BEEN THE MOST ACTIVE RECENTLY...WILL PLAY A MAJOR ROLE

IN THE WEEK OF THE 24TH. ..JLT..

This came out of MPX, the author JLT is very good at upper air pattern recognition.

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My only point is we are not in last year, with no source of arctic air anywhere and no snow cover in Canada. It would only take a little bump and that stuff would dump into the 48. It reminds me of 2010 but a month later. Huge cold anamolies building in western Canada and sure enough, they finally dumped on us. And yes, I know, the Pacific sucks, but it did in 2010-11 as well and look what happened. We had an "El Nina". I know the GFS is next to worthless in the long range but today's 12z started showing the look I am talking about, and if it anywhere near verifies, we up here may not get a lot of snow, but we'll get cold like we haven't seen in 24 months and you guys further south and east would really cash in. Plus the LES machine would really crank. Glass half full. Sorry for the optimism...

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My only point is we are not in last year, with no source of arctic air anywhere and no snow cover in Canada. It would only take a little bump and that stuff would dump into the 48. It reminds me of 2010 but a month later. Huge cold anamolies building in western Canada and sure enough, they finally dumped on us. And yes, I know, the Pacific sucks, but it did in 2010-11 as well and look what happened. We had an "El Nina". I know the GFS is next to worthless in the long range but today's 12z started showing the look I am talking about, and if it anywhere near verifies, we up here may not get a lot of snow, but we'll get cold like we haven't seen in 18 months and you guys further south and east would really cash in. Plus the ES machine would really crank. Glass half full. Sorry for the optimism...

Agree with the bold part, I've been hammering this for the last 45 days, glad to see someone is on my side.

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Folks, Don S, one of the guys I respect most, on board:

Read his most recent. This is NOT LAST YEAR. We have the cold air source. If the pattern plays out like this January is going to rock further south and east. Maybe into the mid south. Glass getting more than half full. I'm getting more optimistic when I read stuff like this.

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Folks, Don S, one of the guys I respect most, on board: http://www.americanw...n/page__st__210

Read his most recent. This is NOT LAST YEAR. We have the cold air source. If the pattern plays out like this January is going to rock further south and east. Maybe into the mid south. Glass getting more than half full. I'm getting more optimistic when I read stuff like this.

looking at the 16/12z run of the Euro, the storm track is well south of us here in MN, its way to early to say for certain, but I'm getting more optimistic in my winter forecast of Dec-Feb temps at 1-2° below normal, with seasonal snowfall of 38" here in MSP, if anything I may be 5 to 10" to high in snowfall as that covers November thru April. The fly in the ointment with this is march snowfall, could we this year get a monster March snowfall like we haven't seen in years.?

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My only point is we are not in last year, with no source of arctic air anywhere and no snow cover in Canada. It would only take a little bump and that stuff would dump into the 48. It reminds me of 2010 but a month later. Huge cold anamolies building in western Canada and sure enough, they finally dumped on us. And yes, I know, the Pacific sucks, but it did in 2010-11 as well and look what happened. We had an "El Nina". I know the GFS is next to worthless in the long range but today's 12z started showing the look I am talking about, and if it anywhere near verifies, we up here may not get a lot of snow, but we'll get cold like we haven't seen in 24 months and you guys further south and east would really cash in. Plus the LES machine would really crank. Glass half full. Sorry for the optimism...

I could not agree with this post more!!! As to the bolded, I have been saying this for over a month now. It will fall on deaf ears for most of the board until the cold settles in. This cold season actually has been NOTHING like 2011-12 to date. NOTHING. Last year, November was warm and wet and this November cold and dry. Unlike the torchy first half of December this year, the first half of December last year actually had a few snowfalls and some seasonable temps (then mid-Dec to mid-Jan was a near snowless, torchy mess). But all you will hear is "I have no snow, this is just like 2011-12". The Canadian cold/snowcover or lackthereof is not fullproof, but has always been a VERY GOOD indicator of wintertime potential down the road, but do not DARE remind any of the winter-cancel folks that we are still 5 days UNTIL the FIRST day of astronomical winter, many feel as though we have lost half of winter. Am I saying its NORMAL to have such a snow-free start to winter as we have had this year? Absolutely not. Its not normal, and it SUCKS. However...this is FAR from the first time a sucky start to winter has happened and the rest of the winter turned out to be a good to great winter. But again, past climo trends mean nothing to many either. I hear everything from "winter isnt what it used to be" from the short-term memory folks who forgot our ridiculous 4-year snow-blitz...to "we are due for many mild winters after our recent good stretch" from those who DO remember the snow blitz..to "the pattern is too stubborn it wont change". But until the cold settles in, there will be absolutely, positively NO talking some into this. All I can say is my uneasy feelings for this winter have NOTHING to do with torch...more along the lines of it wont be long before me and especially you are not worrying about cold, but rather suppression.

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Folks, Don S, one of the guys I respect most, on board: http://www.americanw...n/page__st__210

Read his most recent. This is NOT LAST YEAR. We have the cold air source. If the pattern plays out like this January is going to rock further south and east. Maybe into the mid south. Glass getting more than half full. I'm getting more optimistic when I read stuff like this.

Excellent, descriptive post by don and a MUST-READ for everyone in panic mode. Which is just about everyone!

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Actually, the cold air source isn't that impressive right now. It is the hope the PAC changes after the last GOA low moves through the last week of the month like the longer range guidance is thinking with the PAC ridge moving back east again.

Oh really, is there ever anything you are optimistic on, or you just going to be the proverbial wet blanket all winter? Canada is cold and snow covered, which should continue to strengthen both in scope and magnitude. There is plenty of cold air up there waiting to be tapped unlike last winter where the storms traveled through Canada. This isn't last year.

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It was cold and snow covered last year. It is cold and snow covered every year. But the h5 got steamrolled out this month into Alaska.

Notice the PAC has been trending consistantly better in NCEP runs which is showing up on the long range models. As I have said, the last 3rd of the month will be "better" as in not persistantly above average, but not really a "cold" pattern.

That is around New Years. I won't even mention the 0z Euro. That was almost GFSesque silly.

This is incorrect, they had no snow across most of the Prairie Provinces for large parts of last winter and when they did, it was meager depth and kept melting. Hell even comparing last winter to now, there was really no snow out West or across the Northern Plains where as now there is. Plus the storm track was across Canada last winter vs across the USA this year. It is a matter of time before the cold catches up to one of these systems.

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Oh really, is there ever anything you are optimistic on, or you just going to be the proverbial wet blanket all winter? Canada is cold and snow covered, which should continue to strengthen both in scope and magnitude. There is plenty of cold air up there waiting to be tapped unlike last winter where the storms traveled through Canada. This isn't last year.

At this moment at least at 850MB it looks like 2/3rds is above normal with that giant PV in the ESB area and that huge 1050HP continually dropping the brunt of the cold into Asia.

The 00z Euro smokes that side of the world. It's extremely lopsided.

http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/euro/00zeuro500mbHGHTNH192.gif

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At this moment at least at 850MB it looks like 2/3rds is above normal with that giant PV in the ESB area and that huge 1050HP continually dropping the brunt of the cold into Asia.

The 00z Euro smokes that side of the world. It's extremely lopsided.

http://raleighwx.ame...mbHGHTNH192.gif

This is if we are to believe the Euro is right on this pattern, which I question especially with the Euro's very anomalous pattern it shows in the later hours of last night's run.

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Op Euro flopping around like a stranded fish in the longer ranges= possible pattern change down the road. The way I see it.

Many of the mets always tell you that is the case (big flipflops from reliable models = pattern change). But really, you don't even HAVE to look at the euro maps to tell what they show. Just come on here. For the past week, everytime the 240 euro has showed either mild or conditions that lead to thoughts of extrapolating past 240 = torch, you will see dozens of posts. If the 240 euro shows cold, you will see nothing posted on it.

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Op Euro flopping around like a stranded fish in the longer ranges= possible pattern change down the road. The way I see it.

yeah, large run to run changes and 'extreme' solutions are typical of some kind of pattern change or large storm system that the model doesn't know what to do with.

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The end of the 12z GFS run is amazing. There are going to be some really cold temperatures if that verifies. I am guessing it won't, but it is still crazy to look at.

I'd sell my soul for that NW flow.... the snowbelts are going to be buried before Jan 1st... Way better than last year.

Jon

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