Jump to content
  • Member Statistics

    17,615
    Total Members
    7,904
    Most Online
    Vesuvius
    Newest Member
    Vesuvius
    Joined

Medium/Long Range Discussion Part 2


IWXwx

Recommended Posts

Chill dude. HM8 is correct though. Its not looking that good. Unless the bomb blesses us (which it might scoot to far NW) we are kinda outa options for a WC. Is what it is. Pattern realy sucks ATM.

I wasnt agreeing or disagreeing with hm8s outlook on christmas at all, my ONLY disagreement is giving a northern city unrealistuc ODDS 2 weeks out. But if yoh wanna talk pattern, it is looking cold for christmas. (Though in the last 3 days here ive heard various worries about endless torch, cold suppression, and nw trends....which to choose :lmao:). Kidding aside I am by no means forecasting a white or bare Christmas. We may very well have a bare Christmas. But if we miss thurs we still arent out of options, especially of the cold pattern comes to fruition because clippers can come with just a few days notice, it would just really lower our chances. Now, regardless of what happens Thursday, that would be a good date to give a realistic white Christmas forecast. If we wake up friday morning with bare ground and no systems but cold air in sight, 10-20% is a good est. If we have 3"+ on the ground, then 80-90% would be a good call.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

  • Replies 951
  • Created
  • Last Reply

Local weather here is raising temps for the coming week to ten days with each new forecast update. Early yesterday, Christmas Eve and Christmas Day were supposed to be 30 and 34, then now they are forecast for 32 and 38.

It looks like we are getting a re-run.....

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Was looking forward to a nice plate of crow...and now it looks like I'll be safe with my predictions here in Kenosha. Looks like plenty of rain/mix this week...I was even looking forward to a sub freezing high for the day this next weekend...and it just keeps getting warmer...and warmer...and warmer.

I know its one for the complaint thread, but I'll say it anyways. If I had a nickel for every time cold was predicted...only to have it stripped away and replaced with a 40. Amazing how this season has played out thus far.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Add the 00z euro to the torch camp thanks to a disgusting CO Low.. 50s down that way and mid/upper 40s around here with rain.. :axe:

The euro is so lauded (and rightly so) for its consistency and being the best of the models, that it wasnt until this year I noticed even it has many flipflopping issues at the end of its run. The 12z run had us with 850mb temp of -17C on Christmas morning, and the 00z has a bubble of +4C air sitting over Chicago waiting to come here. laugh.png thats almost gfs-esque.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

WHAT I DO LIKE....remember in more normal starts to winter (when snow isnt as lacking) the complaint tends to be worries about storm track? Though only a few (upper midwest) have benefitted SNOW-WISE, it is a great sign thus far to see such a variety of storm tracks this December. This may bode well for a lot of people sharing in a good snowstorm this winter. As much as I think to myself, will winter EVER come, the reality is the solstice is Friday...so there is still a LONG ways to go. There is never one SOLID storm track anyway, but usually a predominate one, and in this very early stage of the game, there doesnt even necessarily seem to be a predominant one setting up yet. Keep this variety and throw in a clipper express and good times could lie ahead.

For sh*ts and giggles, cfs weeklies have us cold (after this week) the next month.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

The euro is so lauded (and rightly so) for its consistency and being the best of the models, that it wasnt until this year I noticed even it has many flipflopping issues at the end of its run. The 12z run had us with 850mb temp of -17C on Christmas morning, and the 00z has a bubble of +4C air sitting over Chicago waiting to come here. laugh.png thats almost gfs-esque.

Anything past days 5-6 is clown range no matter what model. Sure, there can be successes in nailing down a pattern and maybe even a storm on occasion but there's also a lot of flip flops.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Anything past days 5-6 is clown range no matter what model. Sure, there can be successes in nailing down a pattern and maybe even a storm on occasion but there's also a lot of flip flops.

^This.

I wouldn't get too excited for a mild Christmas weekend yet. Haven't look at the 12z runs, but it looked like another cold push of air comes in during the weekend. It could easily be seasonable temperatures vs. 40s on Christmas. Still 9 days away.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Day 10 op Euro huggers aren't happy.

Yes because afterall a change to a snow and cold pattern in the 10 day forecast has won out everytime. I only hug it when torches, because that seems to be the times it ends up verifying.

Beginning of DEC...DOH!!! After DEC 9th...DOH!!! DEC 15th....DOH!!! Xmas....(wanna guess?)

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Yes because afterall a change to a snow and cold pattern in the 10 day forecast has won out everytime. I only hug it when torches, because that seems to be the times it ends up verifying.

Beginning of DEC...DOH!!! After DEC 9th...DOH!!! DEC 15th....DOH!!! Xmas....(wanna guess?)

You only post day 10 maps to get a rise of people. I know the schtick.

Regardless, no one is claiming cold and snow is on the way based off the day 10 Euro, GFS, or GGEM.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Anything past days 5-6 is clown range no matter what model. Sure, there can be successes in nailing down a pattern and maybe even a storm on occasion but there's also a lot of flip flops.

The only time, in recent memory, where I can remember a model nailing down a storm track 5+ days out, and having it verify was the snowstorm in 2011, the Feb 1-2 event that netted somewhere around 20" in my back yard. So, yeah, you pretty much nailed it. I can probably go through my weather diaries and come up with a plethora of snow storm predicitions that were either too warm, or less than expected, or complete misses. (at least as far as NE IL is concerned)

Cold and snow, or failing that, at least cold, is what I am looking for.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

http://origin.cpc.nc...1215.NAsfcT.gif

Weenie map? Look at Alaska week 3 and 4. Does this happen or not? All I know is there is a lot of cold up there and in western Canada waiting...

Sure is nice to look at I guess... I don't even know what to do when this model trends colder with every run. I guess wait until next week... and then the next week...

http://www.cpc.ncep....1216.201301.gif

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Archived

This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.

Guest
This topic is now closed to further replies.
  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    • No registered users viewing this page.

×
×
  • Create New...