IWXwx Posted December 9, 2012 Share Posted December 9, 2012 I figured that I'd start a new long term discussion thread since the original is over 1000 posts. Hoosier can lock it and we can continue our discussion here. I started the original thread on a lark because of all of the contamination of the other threads with long term talk. It seems to be working quite nicely and I am enjoying all of the model discussion and speculation. Met winter is a week old, astronomical winter is 2 weeks away. When will real winter begin? Looks pretty discouraging to me right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted December 9, 2012 Share Posted December 9, 2012 That was a good call. I think a new medium range thread for the winter is needed. Per OHweather's posts lets see if we can get the MJO to pulse into Phase 1. I think we're at the starting of a slow step down pattern change. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted December 9, 2012 Share Posted December 9, 2012 Winter is saved. Whew. Report on the Euro monthlies below. yep... Model has more of a -AO look for the rest of the winter with polar vortex supressed south into north/central Can. http://twitter.com/B...481568375808000 Also mentioned: For JFM combined period model is showing moist zone from Ohio Valley into southern Ont/Que and into Atl. Can Model is actually now slightly colder than normal around Great Lakes and near normal rest of E. Can and NE U.S. All and all, the model does look more promising than earlier runs for snow lovers in the NE/East Can. Will post maps Monday morning. New ECMWF seasonal basically indicates no chance for El Nino this winter...its near-neutral. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted December 9, 2012 Share Posted December 9, 2012 Yep, that's from Brett Anderson's twitter. He's going to post the Euro Seasonal maps on Monday he said. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted December 9, 2012 Share Posted December 9, 2012 Yep, that's from Brett Anderson's twitter. He's going to post the Euro Seasonal maps on Monday he said. Yeah, thanks for the info. Not that the Euro weeklies have been worth a damn lately. No idea on the accuracy of the monthlies...but have to hitch my wagon to something good. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Harry Posted December 9, 2012 Share Posted December 9, 2012 Winter is saved. Whew. Report on the Euro monthlies below. Looks very much like a gradient type pattern. Dec has some below normal across ne MT, ND, Extreme N. SD, and nw MN. Normal temps for our region with some slightly above/above in the deep south/sw. Then as he said Feb has the below normal across the N.Lakes ( back across N.MN ) on over to N.New England. Normal OV/MA back across Central Plains/N.Rockies/Pac NW.. Above normal again in SW/Tex/LA-Near Gulf Coast/FL.. Not a bad look at all. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted December 9, 2012 Share Posted December 9, 2012 Looks very much like a gradient type pattern. Dec has some below normal across ne MT, ND, Extreme N. SD, and nw MN. Normal temps for our region with some slightly above/above in the deep south/sw. Then as he said Feb has the below normal across the N.Lakes ( back across N.MN ) on over to N.New England. Normal OV/MA back across Central Plains/N.Rockies/Pac NW.. Above normal again in SW/Tex/LA-Near Gulf Coast/FL.. Not a bad look at all. Yeah, I'd hit that. Thanks for the info. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BowMeHunter Posted December 9, 2012 Share Posted December 9, 2012 From Bretts blog. Some thoughts.... --Greater than usual uncertainty within this model, especially after Christmas. --NAO and AO are projected to be mostly in the negative phase through the end of this month, which usually argues for cold air to be farther south than normal. However, the PNA is projected to stay mostly negative, which allows more Pacific air to push across the U.S. and limits the amount of Arctic air that can get south. Basically what I am saying is that the North Atlantic and Arctic circulation patterns over the next three weeks looks favorable for winter-like weather over a large part of Canada, but the Pacific circulation is not very favorable at this point. .Things looking up with the change of Avatar...These maps.. PNA maybe staying on the - side with just enough blocking and good placement. hopefully. HM's La Epic Chicago Pattern.. Chicago WX's 6.7" Christmas Eve Milwaukee Miracle call. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted December 9, 2012 Share Posted December 9, 2012 When was the last good "PAC" winter 2008-9? 2009-11 was the story of historic Atlantic blocking. 2011-12 was a disaster even with a +PNA, but the upstream was troughed. There is no such thing, without the Atlantic side helping. Well, maybe 2007-08 to an extent. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted December 9, 2012 Share Posted December 9, 2012 2007-2008 was great, even though it mostly iced here. 240 hour Euro has a 982 MB bomb over Ohio. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted December 9, 2012 Share Posted December 9, 2012 Brett Anderson mentioning a COLDER than normal winter? Should I be preparing for a 1976-77 redux, or 1903-04? Anyway, I am not a fan of 7-10 day out storm threads, so I figured Id post this in here. Interesting thoughts from DT regarding snowstorm threat Dec 18th timeframe PLAIN ENGLISH NON WEATHER GEEK SPEAK The weather models overnight have moved towards a solution regarding two potential significant events. The first one is the LOW pressure area for DEC 15 which looks like it's going to track up west of Chicago through the upper Plains. That area is experiencing a severe drought so any sort of snowfall there would help quite a bit but it also looks like rain even as far west the Chicago. The SECOND and potentially bigger event would be the first major winter storm the season on or around December 18. A few days ago some of the model data was strongly suggesting this would be in East Coast event but that was premised on the idea of certain things taking place in the atmosphere which enforces the this LOW pressure area to the East coast and not track through the Midwest. That has changed and the overnight weather models continue to support that change. As a result the track now strongly favors the Ohio Valley... With the low pressure area tracking up from Arkansas through Tennessee Eastern Kentucky Eastern Ohio West Virginia and up into the eastern great lakes or perhaps far Western New York State. This would bring widespread significant if not heavy snow to much of western OH IND ILL MI northern MO... But areas to the east such as the ENTIRE EAST COAST ... even into Boston ...would see a record warm temperatures with strong southerly winds . As the LOW moved the northeast into either the eastern great lakes or Western New York State... its cold front would sweep through the East Coast of heavy showers and thunderstorms summer which could be severe . This is all assuming that the current model data which came out early Sunday morning is going to be generally correct. The strong model agreement and the overall atmosphere a pattern strongly supports a Ohio Valley track with the system. keep in mind this is NOT yet a frim forecast .. more like a educated discussion. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LakeEffectOH Posted December 9, 2012 Share Posted December 9, 2012 While this winter, so far, sickenely resembles last winter, I believe, unlike last winter, we have a 2 - 4 week of cold, wintery weather beginning sometime in early to more likely, mid January. I think we will have a real -NAO along with the PNA going neutral and maybe somewhat positive. If the The longer range ECMWF (30 day) does verify and that is a big IF, we wlll probably go from forecasted Phase 3 (incipient torch) through the dreaded Phases 4,5,6 and 7 and get back into the favorable Phase 8. Again, that's IF the MJO really gets its act together. The reason I'm saying all this is because I expect the colder pattern we experienced in Oct and for part of Nov, will return. Remember, last year there was no sustained period of below normal temps, except for that week to 10 days when the Northeast had the late October snowstorm. Otherwise, Torch City. I believe the atmosphere can "return" to patterns that somewhat resemble those of the Autumn months. After that period, the rest of winter will off and on with in and out cold and the occasional torch. The further west in the region the better you will do as the bulk of the cold air stays in Western/Central Canada but will expand southward as it's doing so now. FWIW, I think the Eastern Lakes/Ohio Valley will be missed by some storms that will bring snow to places like Chicago and Detroit which are closer to the "source" Right now, the extended Pac Jet (all the way back into Asia) has hit it's stride and it will take something like a respectable MJO wave or something like a SSW to distrupt the global long wave setup. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted December 9, 2012 Share Posted December 9, 2012 This is also important to mention. The WPO is on verge of going +. Like OHweather said, that will force the cold air out of eastern Siberia and realign the Pacific pattern. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LakeEffectOH Posted December 9, 2012 Share Posted December 9, 2012 This is also important to mention. The WPO is on verge of going +. Like OHweather said, that will force the cold air out of eastern Siberia and realign the Pacific pattern. Hopefully the Pac pattern doesn't realign to this setup Which would translate to this 500 pattern. A +EPO is almost never good. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted December 9, 2012 Share Posted December 9, 2012 Yes, a positive EPO would not be good as that promotes zonal flow which typically floods the US with warm Pacific air. The 12z GFS ensembles have a +EPO peaking around the 16th, then falling back to barely negative by the 23rd or so. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LakeEffectOH Posted December 9, 2012 Share Posted December 9, 2012 Yes, a positive EPO would not be good as that promotes zonal flow which typically floods the US with warm Pacific air. The 12z GFS ensembles have a +EPO peaking around the 16th, then falling back to barely negative by the 23rd or so. The talk of the Positive EPO concerns me and I hope as to why the +EPO is showing up on the models is that the move to positive is because of something transient such as the MJO moving thru Phase 5 on its way to Phase 8. I sure don't want this to be a trend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LakeEffectOH Posted December 9, 2012 Share Posted December 9, 2012 ...Interesting d10 pattern on 12z Euro. Will it verify? I have my doubts, but it is interesting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted December 10, 2012 Share Posted December 10, 2012 Brett Anderson posted his interpretations of the Euro Seasonal run today: http://www.accuweather.com/en/weather-blogs/anderson/updated-winter-forecast-model-is-stormier-in-the-east/2558096 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted December 10, 2012 Share Posted December 10, 2012 Brett Anderson posted his interpretations of the Euro Seasonal run today: http://www.accuweath...he-east/2558096 Welp, hope it's right. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted December 10, 2012 Share Posted December 10, 2012 12z GFS says merry christmas and lays down an I-80 special on christmas eve. Lock it in. One of these fantasy/truncated mirage systems must come to fruition eventually right?? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted December 10, 2012 Share Posted December 10, 2012 It is the 10 year anniversary of the December 24-25, 2002 storm coming up this year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted December 10, 2012 Share Posted December 10, 2012 12z GFS says merry christmas and lays down an I-80 special on christmas eve. Lock it in. One of these fantasy/truncated mirage systems must come to fruition eventually right?? Yes. Well, not necessarily one of them comes to fruition, but one will come. Could be one you are not even looking for. What kills me is that after this coming weekends system, on both the euro and gfs (though bigger and way further NW on the euro), the euro and nearly all of its 51 ensembles have a big storm the 18-19th or so, but the op GFS has NOTHING in this timeframe. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted December 10, 2012 Share Posted December 10, 2012 Brett Anderson posted his interpretations of the Euro Seasonal run today: http://www.accuweath...he-east/2558096 I almost fell off my chair seeing those colors on a brett anderson map. And wow I will take it! Colder AND snowier than normal here? Nice. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted December 10, 2012 Share Posted December 10, 2012 Lol! Great forecast from Brett. Hope our forecast holds for the region. NIce to see the PV over northern MB. Glad to see this is a EURO forecast... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BowMeHunter Posted December 10, 2012 Share Posted December 10, 2012 It is the 10 year anniversary of the December 24-25, 2002 storm coming up this year. .1 of an inch here for that storm. I don't even think I could Geos slant it enough to get 1". Wife just might get a last minute Walmart Christmas present yet. That winter Milwaukee went from Dec 4th - Feb 10th with out a snowfall over 1" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BowMeHunter Posted December 10, 2012 Share Posted December 10, 2012 At least its showing some chance for above avg precip. Better than cold and dry. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Minnesota Meso Posted December 10, 2012 Share Posted December 10, 2012 The Euro is all over those maps, it sets up a very strong west based bloc, as a matter of fact it like it's over the Canadian Maritime, with its current run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jonger Posted December 10, 2012 Share Posted December 10, 2012 At least its showing some chance for above avg precip. Better than cold and dry. That's pacific flow for ya. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DAFF Posted December 10, 2012 Share Posted December 10, 2012 Brets forecast actually resembles the current weather pattern but today the cold is locked up more to the north. With the weekends storm it was interesting to see the drastic temperature gradients in such close proximities. Nothing but a cold rain here but 100 miles away snow flakes and a slushy accumulation. My feeling is the cold will drop further north during the next moon phase. Good or bad, the last full moon brought the wetter pattern to the region so lets hope by around the 28th the cold drops again putting Detroit in the sustained cold. Ground in these pars is yet to turn solid for more than a few hours. The next system will be all rain for us..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted December 10, 2012 Share Posted December 10, 2012 **burp** scuse me... must be something I ate, but I have this weird intra-gastrointestinal-disturbed feeling that things are looking up after this weekends weak torch. It's disturbiing...I admit. I think it's the insistance of the models showing seasonably cold air parking itself over our region and a much more active pattern taking shape. We don't need brutal cold for good snow, in fact our best snows fall at seasonably cold temps. it almost feels dirty to talk like this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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