Chicago WX Posted December 11, 2012 Share Posted December 11, 2012 New thread been given...for storm #2. http://www.americanwx.com/bb/index.php/topic/38284-december-18-20-winter-storm-potential/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nelson Posted December 11, 2012 Share Posted December 11, 2012 timing on this thread is weird...i assume we are talking about the potential spin up following the 99.999% rain storm this weekend? Was thinking the same thing. Conversation seems to be around threat euro is showing for 18th-20th Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hawkeye_wx Posted December 11, 2012 Share Posted December 11, 2012 12z GFS does have snow falling in se MN into western WI Saturday. Perhaps DLL can add a bit to his December total. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wisconsinwx Posted December 11, 2012 Share Posted December 11, 2012 The storm is going to be rain for much of the subforum, but it will be snow on the northern side... I care about great lakes storms, not just my own backyard... This thread was initially for the Saturday storm and now seems to be the Tuesday event. Jon Yep, even though this will be another frustrating cold rain/turning to non-accumulating snow type event for mby, still interested in the likely thin snow band that is likely to exist in Southern Minnesota and C Wisconsin as progged at this time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted December 11, 2012 Share Posted December 11, 2012 Definitely would be nice to get some snow, but at least there should be a nice soaking rain around much of the area with this. We need moisture in a big way. Since Nov 12 we've only had 0.55" of rain, and since Nov 1st the total is only 1.64". We don't have the extreme drought anymore, but we're still in the severe category. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jonger Posted December 11, 2012 Share Posted December 11, 2012 Still too early... Will be interesting to follow this storm, but it has been consistent in its track. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gosaints Posted December 11, 2012 Share Posted December 11, 2012 Interesting the Euro is the most robust with the snow field associated with this system. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UW-weather Posted December 11, 2012 Share Posted December 11, 2012 here are my thoughts: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
daddylonglegs Posted December 11, 2012 Share Posted December 11, 2012 12z GFS shows a central WI hit... I'd be on the edge, but still have the potential to pick up between nothing and 10 inches Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
daddylonglegs Posted December 11, 2012 Share Posted December 11, 2012 Saints- What does the EURO show for precip for us? Did u see Rochester was 0F last evening...u get that cold? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UW-weather Posted December 11, 2012 Share Posted December 11, 2012 18z NAM looks stronger, but more north Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mnweather Posted December 11, 2012 Share Posted December 11, 2012 the sref looks north too but I dont know if its really useful at this range. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted December 11, 2012 Share Posted December 11, 2012 Further North is good with this system as it helps with respect to the next system. I have already wrote this one off locally. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
daddylonglegs Posted December 12, 2012 Share Posted December 12, 2012 GFS a lot drier this run here... keeps the moisture south...also looks iffy with temps... sleet? rain? who knows.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted December 12, 2012 Share Posted December 12, 2012 DLL - yeah that's pretty much a complete miss on the 0z GFS for you. System is almost entirely rain. Maybe some snow mix near GRB or so. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowlover2 Posted December 12, 2012 Share Posted December 12, 2012 Euro @120 it looks like the initial storm goes to the Lakes and then a new low is trying to pop over west TN? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
daddylonglegs Posted December 12, 2012 Share Posted December 12, 2012 NWS shows rain/snow here..mid 30Fs for temps... Going to be interesting travel weekend in this area. GFS shows just over a quarter inch of precip. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted December 12, 2012 Share Posted December 12, 2012 12z NAM is going to unleash a very warm scenario. the run to run solutions with the numerous pieces of energy diving into the west coast trough are all over the map...it's pretty incredible. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hawkeye_wx Posted December 12, 2012 Share Posted December 12, 2012 The nws offices around here seem to be dismissing the GFS's more southeast track. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted December 12, 2012 Share Posted December 12, 2012 The nws offices around here seem to be dismissing the GFS's more southeast track. I think that's smart Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jonger Posted December 12, 2012 Share Posted December 12, 2012 Isn't the GFS and Euro showing a similar track? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted December 12, 2012 Share Posted December 12, 2012 Isn't the GFS and Euro showing a similar track? Euro looks slightly NW but it gets really messy with the secondary energy...I think we'll see the models trends northwest with this storm today. EDIT: after a quick look 6z GFS already too a jump northwest from 0z. I haven't been following this event too close until now but i think 12z will take another step NW. EDIT x2: Looks like 12z GFS will follow the trend towards a stronger storm into the southwest...should come northwest. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gosaints Posted December 12, 2012 Share Posted December 12, 2012 Plenty of precip this run. Bye bye snow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gosaints Posted December 12, 2012 Share Posted December 12, 2012 The consistency of the gfs is amazing so far this winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted December 12, 2012 Share Posted December 12, 2012 Plenty of precip this run. Bye bye snow there is just a ton of time for heights to rise across a good half of the country before this thing really ejects...you have southerly 850s uninterrupted from the northern Hudson deep ino the Gulf. this screams ride northwest solutions Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted December 12, 2012 Share Posted December 12, 2012 Looks like this system is gonna be a snow eater all along the southern edge of the existing snowpack. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted December 12, 2012 Share Posted December 12, 2012 Depending on how much slower/deeper/stronger this thing trends...it could be much more efficient in pulling down cold air in its wake than yesterdays solutions. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted December 12, 2012 Share Posted December 12, 2012 looking pretty cut-offy Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
daddylonglegs Posted December 12, 2012 Share Posted December 12, 2012 Maybe it'll be a sleet monster. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
smoof Posted December 13, 2012 Share Posted December 13, 2012 This storm looks like another Northern Michigan special, looks like a mix around here in Central MI, maybe the rain/snow line near Houghton Lake or north of that... on a not so related note, I'm gonna go see 2 of my favorite weather girls tomorrow night Live on TV (WNEM weather road show) lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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