Chicago WX Posted December 11, 2012 Share Posted December 11, 2012 Lots of changes over the years. I think the Euro was 00z only. I've spent like half of my years on these boards. It was. And it was a PITA to find good maps of it back in the day. Pretty much a third for myself. Ugh. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jonger Posted December 11, 2012 Share Posted December 11, 2012 It was. And it was a PITA to find good maps of it back in the day. Pretty much a third for myself. Ugh. Until just recently I shunned the euro... couldn't stand the maps. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TimChgo9 Posted December 11, 2012 Share Posted December 11, 2012 GFS shows the potential, that's for sure. How it pans out, remains to be seen. It has a low, over W KY @ 360, and then over S IN/ SW OH at 372. (Yes, I know, way out in fantasy land, dreaming little dreamy dreams). Now, as we get closer, I wonder how much to the NW this low will move, or if it disappears from the map altogether, or winds up farther south.. Ah, the heck with it, it's 15-16 days out.... we'll just say "something may happen" and then track the various systems, and see where they wind up, and then deal with what comes out of them. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted December 11, 2012 Share Posted December 11, 2012 Until just recently I shunned the euro... couldn't stand the maps. You're doing it wrong then. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted December 11, 2012 Share Posted December 11, 2012 Party in the southeast region forum tonight!!!!! LOL at the gfs...snowstorm for Alabama and Georgia next Tues. They'd beat all of us in snowfall so far for the season if that panned out Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted December 11, 2012 Share Posted December 11, 2012 Party in the southeast region forum tonight!!!!! LOL at the gfs...snowstorm for Alabama and Georgia next Tues. They'd beat all of us in snowfall so far for the season if that panned out I remember during one of our recent fantastic winters, maybe 2010-11, maybe 2008-09? New Orleans got a freak snowfall before we had one. It was naturally their only snowflakes of the winter and we got buried. That aside, I actually like that the GFS has SOMETHING in that timeframe, even though its thousands of miles south, because thats the timeframe the Euro has been consistent with a storm and the GFS had been quiet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted December 11, 2012 Share Posted December 11, 2012 I remember during one of our recent fantastic winters, maybe 2010-11, maybe 2008-09? New Orleans got a freak snowfall before we had one. It was naturally their only snowflakes of the winter and we got buried. That aside, I actually like that the GFS has SOMETHING in that timeframe, even though its thousands of miles south, because thats the timeframe the Euro has been consistent with a storm and the GFS had been quiet. joking aside, I'm actually very interested in next week. I expect the gfs to screw it up....but this is the gfs's way of saying 'potential'. I'm thinking Nov 26th 1950 for analog. Strong cutoff low somewhere over the appalachians Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted December 11, 2012 Share Posted December 11, 2012 I remember during one of our recent fantastic winters, maybe 2010-11, maybe 2008-09? New Orleans got a freak snowfall before we had one. It was naturally their only snowflakes of the winter and we got buried. That aside, I actually like that the GFS has SOMETHING in that timeframe, even though its thousands of miles south, because thats the timeframe the Euro has been consistent with a storm and the GFS had been quiet. I think it was 2009-2010 and 2010-2011 that the SE saw a plethora of snowstorms. The NE suburbs of Memphis were buried in a foot of snow with one storm while Atlanta, Arkansas and Birmingham saw several "major" snowstorms. Then remember the Christmas Blizzard in 2009 that buried Oklahoma City in 12"+ of snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted December 11, 2012 Share Posted December 11, 2012 I'm thinking Nov 26th 1950 for analog. Not even close. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted December 11, 2012 Share Posted December 11, 2012 Not even close. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted December 11, 2012 Share Posted December 11, 2012 I think it was 2009-2010 and 2010-2011 that the SE saw a plethora of snowstorms. The NE suburbs of Memphis were buried in a foot of snow with one storm while Atlanta, Arkansas and Birmingham saw several "major" snowstorms. Then remember the Christmas Blizzard in 2009 that buried Oklahoma City in 12"+ of snow. An epic stretch all around. OKC I expect to see SOME snow...maybe Memphis once in a while...but the New Orleans snow I was just like, wtf? 2009-10 was the only close to "normal" winter in the epic 4-year stretch of snow here, but it was normal in terms of total snowfall...still had an epic February (and epically snowless March). Detroit saw 6 months with 20"+ of snow in those 4 winters from 2007-08 thru 2010-11. In the remaining 128 years of record, Detroit had just 30 other months of 20"+. Good times Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted December 11, 2012 Share Posted December 11, 2012 00z Euro a bit slower so far with the storm for next week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted December 11, 2012 Share Posted December 11, 2012 00z Euro a bit slower so far with the storm for next week. This run will be another "success"...sfc low near Memphis at 192 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted December 11, 2012 Share Posted December 11, 2012 cyclone/Chi/Mke get blitzed on this run. Edit: on second look, temps may be marginal the farther east you head toward Chicago/Milwaukee. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted December 11, 2012 Share Posted December 11, 2012 What a storm on the 0z Euro, continues to show a big system. Sfc low heads NNE from the TX/LA coastline to IKK stretching into northern IN then kind of just hangs around. Big snow event in the cold sector. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted December 11, 2012 Share Posted December 11, 2012 Sfc low actually heads due north while it's in IL, pretty cool. The H5 charts are insane. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted December 11, 2012 Share Posted December 11, 2012 What a storm on the 0z Euro, continues to show a big system. Sfc low heads NNE from the TX/LA coastline to IKK stretching into northern IN then kind of just hangs around. Big snow event in the cold sector. Wow that would be damn good run probably for here as well as the warm air gets shunted east. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stevo6899 Posted December 11, 2012 Share Posted December 11, 2012 So the euro doesn't have the storm the gfs has for sat-sun? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted December 11, 2012 Share Posted December 11, 2012 cyclone/Chi/Mke get blitzed on this run. Edit: on second look, temps may be marginal the farther east you head toward Chicago/Milwaukee. Yeah best looked like a cycloneville to MSN/MKE hit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted December 11, 2012 Share Posted December 11, 2012 Euro ensembles are pretty impressive for a week out with the second storm, a bit faster than the OP, but 998 mb is no slouch for an ensemble mean this far out... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted December 11, 2012 Share Posted December 11, 2012 It's not hard to see why the Euro/ensembles do this when you link the powerful mid/upper level jet streak (well over 150 kts at H3) with the very tight gradient at H5 here that I've circled in black off the NW Coast. When you look at the Euro OP from a hemispherical perspective, it is actually the tightest gradient in the Northern Hemisphere around this time frame at H5. There is a ton of energy there to carve a potentially significant trough into the Western/Central portion of the country. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted December 11, 2012 Share Posted December 11, 2012 little to no confidence imby for this period...just not seeing the prerequisite cold air in play south of the maple curtain. IMBY issues aside, overall regional storm prospects look great...the Euro consistency is impressive. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted December 11, 2012 Share Posted December 11, 2012 Not a primo setup for our end of the region but if nothing else it's an interesting one to watch unfold on the modelling. It's almost a cutoff low with widespread marginally cold air to work with. Sometimes those can bring some strange results between the slow speed and location of the coldest air. Euro almost has a double-barrel look with the sufrace low, one center in IN/OH and the other in E.PA....but hard to tell if it rides northeast that way or transfers. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jonger Posted December 11, 2012 Share Posted December 11, 2012 Looks like this one is going to create its own cold air.... I'm thinking this one will be a central Michigan storm, but who knows. Jon Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gosaints Posted December 11, 2012 Share Posted December 11, 2012 Looks like this one is going to create its own cold air.... I'm thinking this one will be a central Michigan storm, but who knows. Jon ???? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
daddylonglegs Posted December 11, 2012 Share Posted December 11, 2012 Saints- It'll be plenty cold here with this glacier firmly in place...we could rack up the totals if this thing can curve through CHICAGO... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowman99 Posted December 11, 2012 Share Posted December 11, 2012 Crossing my fingers for a St Louis I-44 Special. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted December 11, 2012 Share Posted December 11, 2012 timing on this thread is weird...i assume we are talking about the potential spin up following the 99.999% rain storm this weekend? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hawkeye_wx Posted December 11, 2012 Share Posted December 11, 2012 timing on this thread is weird...i assume we are talking about the potential spin up following the 99.999% rain storm this weekend? I think this thread was originally for the initial weekend storm, but then it quickly became clear the first storm would be a rainy non-event so the discussion shifted to a possible winter storm next week. The two storms should have their own threads.... or the first storm should have its own thread(this one) while the possible bigger storm beyond a week out could be discussed in the med/long range thread until it gets closer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jonger Posted December 11, 2012 Share Posted December 11, 2012 I think this thread was originally for the initial weekend storm, but then it quickly became clear the first storm would be a rainy non-event so the discussion shifted to a possible winter storm next week. The two storms should have their own threads.... or the first storm should have its own thread(this one) while the possible bigger storm beyond a week out could be discussed in the med/long range thread until it gets closer. The storm is going to be rain for much of the subforum, but it will be snow on the northern side... I care about great lakes storms, not just my own backyard... This thread was initially for the Saturday storm and now seems to be the Tuesday event. Jon Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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