Jump to content
  • Member Statistics

    17,606
    Total Members
    7,904
    Most Online
    ArlyDude
    Newest Member
    ArlyDude
    Joined

December 15-17th Potential Winter Storm


SpartyOn

Recommended Posts

  • Replies 221
  • Created
  • Last Reply

GFS shows the potential, that's for sure. How it pans out, remains to be seen. It has a low, over W KY @ 360, and then over S IN/ SW OH at 372. (Yes, I know, way out in fantasy land, dreaming little dreamy dreams). Now, as we get closer, I wonder how much to the NW this low will move, or if it disappears from the map altogether, or winds up farther south..

Ah, the heck with it, it's 15-16 days out.... we'll just say "something may happen" and then track the various systems, and see where they wind up, and then deal with what comes out of them.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Party in the southeast region forum tonight!!!!! LOL at the gfs...snowstorm for Alabama and Georgia next Tues. They'd beat all of us in snowfall so far for the season if that panned out :lmao:

I remember during one of our recent fantastic winters, maybe 2010-11, maybe 2008-09? New Orleans got a freak snowfall before we had one. It was naturally their only snowflakes of the winter and we got buried.

That aside, I actually like that the GFS has SOMETHING in that timeframe, even though its thousands of miles south, because thats the timeframe the Euro has been consistent with a storm and the GFS had been quiet.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

I remember during one of our recent fantastic winters, maybe 2010-11, maybe 2008-09? New Orleans got a freak snowfall before we had one. It was naturally their only snowflakes of the winter and we got buried.

That aside, I actually like that the GFS has SOMETHING in that timeframe, even though its thousands of miles south, because thats the timeframe the Euro has been consistent with a storm and the GFS had been quiet.

joking aside, I'm actually very interested in next week. I expect the gfs to screw it up....but this is the gfs's way of saying 'potential'.

I'm thinking Nov 26th 1950 for analog. Strong cutoff low somewhere over the appalachians :weenie:

Link to comment
Share on other sites

I remember during one of our recent fantastic winters, maybe 2010-11, maybe 2008-09? New Orleans got a freak snowfall before we had one. It was naturally their only snowflakes of the winter and we got buried.

That aside, I actually like that the GFS has SOMETHING in that timeframe, even though its thousands of miles south, because thats the timeframe the Euro has been consistent with a storm and the GFS had been quiet.

I think it was 2009-2010 and 2010-2011 that the SE saw a plethora of snowstorms.

The NE suburbs of Memphis were buried in a foot of snow with one storm while Atlanta, Arkansas and Birmingham saw several "major" snowstorms.

Then remember the Christmas Blizzard in 2009 that buried Oklahoma City in 12"+ of snow.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

I think it was 2009-2010 and 2010-2011 that the SE saw a plethora of snowstorms.

The NE suburbs of Memphis were buried in a foot of snow with one storm while Atlanta, Arkansas and Birmingham saw several "major" snowstorms.

Then remember the Christmas Blizzard in 2009 that buried Oklahoma City in 12"+ of snow.

An epic stretch all around. OKC I expect to see SOME snow...maybe Memphis once in a while...but the New Orleans snow I was just like, wtf? 2009-10 was the only close to "normal" winter in the epic 4-year stretch of snow here, but it was normal in terms of total snowfall...still had an epic February (and epically snowless March). Detroit saw 6 months with 20"+ of snow in those 4 winters from 2007-08 thru 2010-11. In the remaining 128 years of record, Detroit had just 30 other months of 20"+.

Good times :wub:

Link to comment
Share on other sites

What a storm on the 0z Euro, continues to show a big system. Sfc low heads NNE from the TX/LA coastline to IKK stretching into northern IN then kind of just hangs around. Big snow event in the cold sector.

Wow that would be damn good run probably for here as well as the warm air gets shunted east.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

It's not hard to see why the Euro/ensembles do this when you link the powerful mid/upper level jet streak (well over 150 kts at H3) with the very tight gradient at H5 here that I've circled in black off the NW Coast. When you look at the Euro OP from a hemispherical perspective, it is actually the tightest gradient in the Northern Hemisphere around this time frame at H5. There is a ton of energy there to carve a potentially significant trough into the Western/Central portion of the country.

00zecmwfens500mbhghtna1.jpg

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Not a primo setup for our end of the region but if nothing else it's an interesting one to watch unfold on the modelling. It's almost a cutoff low with widespread marginally cold air to work with. Sometimes those can bring some strange results between the slow speed and location of the coldest air.

Euro almost has a double-barrel look with the sufrace low, one center in IN/OH and the other in E.PA....but hard to tell if it rides northeast that way or transfers.

post-622-0-88291700-1355230401_thumb.jpg

Link to comment
Share on other sites

timing on this thread is weird...i assume we are talking about the potential spin up following the 99.999% rain storm this weekend?

I think this thread was originally for the initial weekend storm, but then it quickly became clear the first storm would be a rainy non-event so the discussion shifted to a possible winter storm next week. The two storms should have their own threads.... or the first storm should have its own thread(this one) while the possible bigger storm beyond a week out could be discussed in the med/long range thread until it gets closer.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

I think this thread was originally for the initial weekend storm, but then it quickly became clear the first storm would be a rainy non-event so the discussion shifted to a possible winter storm next week. The two storms should have their own threads.... or the first storm should have its own thread(this one) while the possible bigger storm beyond a week out could be discussed in the med/long range thread until it gets closer.

The storm is going to be rain for much of the subforum, but it will be snow on the northern side... I care about great lakes storms, not just my own backyard... This thread was initially for the Saturday storm and now seems to be the Tuesday event.

Jon

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Archived

This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.

  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    • No registered users viewing this page.

×
×
  • Create New...