hm8 Posted December 10, 2012 Share Posted December 10, 2012 There would be a storm since I have to catch a flight from HSV to DTW around that time. Bank on it. Way to take one for the team Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jonger Posted December 10, 2012 Share Posted December 10, 2012 Euro has had it for several runs. Far too early but if it still has a storm 3-4 days from now then it will instill some confidence in an event in that timeframe. Is this storm supposed to create its own cold air? Almost looks like the cold is 1000 miles north. Jon Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gosaints Posted December 10, 2012 Share Posted December 10, 2012 EURO shows a decent event over the weekend. Temps quite marginal however. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted December 10, 2012 Share Posted December 10, 2012 Is this storm supposed to create its own cold air? Almost looks like the cold is 1000 miles north. Jon yep...from the looks of things, deep cold air is going to be an issue Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowman99 Posted December 10, 2012 Share Posted December 10, 2012 St louis NWS has a little to say about the system for next week: WEEK OF DECEMBER 17TH... ECWMF CONTINUES TO BE MOST CONSISTENT WITH ANOTHER LARGE STORM SYSTEM TAKING SHAPE ACROSS THE LOWER/MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY. SOME POTENTIAL THAT THIS STORM COULD BRING THE FIRST MEASURABLE SNOW TO PARTS OF THE CWA GIVEN THE SOUTHERN NATURE OF THE FORECAST TRACK. MEANWHILE...THE GFS...WHICH HAS LARGELY BEEN IGNORED IN RECENT DAYS...HAS NO RESEMBLANCE OF THE ECWMF SOLUTION FOR NEXT WEEK. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted December 10, 2012 Share Posted December 10, 2012 12z Euro ensemble mean back south for this system. Or farther south than the 0z run. Have to at least like the consistency of this showing up on the Euro and its ensembles. We'll see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AppsRunner Posted December 10, 2012 Share Posted December 10, 2012 There would be a storm since I have to catch a flight from HSV to DTW around that time. Bank on it. Way to take one for the team And if it works you're gonna have to travel a lot this winter Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted December 10, 2012 Share Posted December 10, 2012 NAM really doesn't even have that way like the GFS does around the 84/90hr mark rolling acoss southern Canada near the border. Just a big system moving across southern CA with the next system flying across the pacific behind it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted December 10, 2012 Share Posted December 10, 2012 NAM really doesn't even have that way like the GFS does around the 84/90hr mark rolling acoss southern Canada near the border. Just a big system moving across southern CA with the next system flying across the pacific behind it. Look at the massive change at 165 on the 18z GFS compared to the 171 on the 12z GFS. No system off the SW CA coast on the 18z and the system that's hanging out along the Canada border on the 12z is now in Texas on the 18z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted December 10, 2012 Share Posted December 10, 2012 next tuesday timeframe is starting to pique my interest. Euro is hellbent on an OV-ish storm track....now the 18z gfs is beginning to play around with the idea. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted December 10, 2012 Share Posted December 10, 2012 Yeah, talk about threading the needle. Knowing our luck, it would end up a rain storm. true but it might be the first trackable event for us folks on the southern flanks of the region. Chances are it goes *poof* in the next few days.....but at least it's something. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted December 11, 2012 Share Posted December 11, 2012 Id like to order... the GFS storm Dec 16th the EURO storm Dec 18/19th the GFS storm Dec 24/25th at least potential is there! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mnweather Posted December 11, 2012 Share Posted December 11, 2012 Id like to order... the GFS storm Dec 16th the EURO storm Dec 18/19th the GFS storm Dec 24/25th at least potential is there! I think that is what is most important. At least something is showing up. The more storms the better chance you get hit by one. Better than having no chance at all. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wisconsinwx Posted December 11, 2012 Share Posted December 11, 2012 I think that is what is most important. At least something is showing up. The more storms the better chance you get hit by one. Better than having no chance at all. They will all fall to the crapper as time goes by and the dates get closer, especially if there is consensus on the GFS ensembles. You actually don't want consensus on those ensembles, because they are so inaccurate. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mnweather Posted December 11, 2012 Share Posted December 11, 2012 They will all fall to the crapper as time goes by and the dates get closer, especially if there is consensus on the GFS ensembles. You actually don't want consensus on those ensembles, because they are so inaccurate. I don't know. I think it is more encouraging that the euro and its ensemble mean both agree on a couple storms this week. It raises more confidence I think. It's not a guarantee obviously but its something to watch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted December 11, 2012 Share Posted December 11, 2012 They will all fall to the crapper as time goes by and the dates get closer, especially if there is consensus on the GFS ensembles. You actually don't want consensus on those ensembles, because they are so inaccurate. lol. If the GFS shows it, it's not going to happen, eh? That's actually a pretty good strategy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted December 11, 2012 Share Posted December 11, 2012 They will all fall to the crapper as time goes by and the dates get closer, especially if there is consensus on the GFS ensembles. You actually don't want consensus on those ensembles, because they are so inaccurate. Huh? Generally any type of consensus in the ensembles towards a storm is a good one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nwohweather Posted December 11, 2012 Share Posted December 11, 2012 So what will happen first? NHL game or significant snow of 6+ across GL? Think it's a fair question Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wisconsinwx Posted December 11, 2012 Share Posted December 11, 2012 lol. If the GFS shows it, it's not going to happen, eh? That's actually a pretty good strategy. Yeah, I wish the Euro came out four times a day, since it can actually pin winter systems down very well from time to time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wisconsinwx Posted December 11, 2012 Share Posted December 11, 2012 Huh? Generally any type of consensus in the ensembles towards a storm is a good one. Not the GFS ensembles, granted I'm talking in the medium or long range. In that range, even the ensembles of the GFS have tended to be wrong. There have been periods where many or most have shown a major storm in that range, like the late November bust, and it turned out to be a pedestrian frontal passage. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hm8 Posted December 11, 2012 Share Posted December 11, 2012 They will all fall to the crapper as time goes by and the dates get closer, especially if there is consensus on the GFS ensembles. You actually don't want consensus on those ensembles, because they are so inaccurate. that's such a hilariously twisted and incorrect way of thinking Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BowMeHunter Posted December 11, 2012 Share Posted December 11, 2012 They will all fall to the crapper as time goes by and the dates get closer, especially if there is consensus on the GFS ensembles. You actually don't want consensus on those ensembles, because they are so inaccurate. One of the worst post I've ever read here outside of mine. You need to delete AccuWeather forums from your computer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BowMeHunter Posted December 11, 2012 Share Posted December 11, 2012 Not the GFS ensembles, granted I'm talking in the medium or long range. In that range, even the ensembles of the GFS have tended to be wrong. There have been periods where many or most have shown a major storm in that range, like the late November bust, and it turned out to be a pedestrian frontal passage. what a huge sample size Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted December 11, 2012 Share Posted December 11, 2012 Yeah, I wish the Euro came out four times a day, since it can actually pin winter systems down very well from time to time. I don't know...it would lose some of the mystique I think. Less opportunities for flip flops with something that comes out twice a day compared to 4 times a day. Euro actually used to only come out once a day about 10 years ago IIRC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted December 11, 2012 Share Posted December 11, 2012 I don't know...it would lose some of the mystique I think. Less opportunities for flip flops with something that comes out twice a day compared to 4 times a day. Euro actually used to only come out once a day about 10 years ago IIRC. Yep, once a day. Remember when the GFS/MRF only went out to 7 days, or 10 days (I can't remember exactly)...and was only run two times a day? The NAM was the ETA and the NGM was somewhat legit. Well, it's MOS product was. Geez, we've been doing this for too long. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wisconsinwx Posted December 11, 2012 Share Posted December 11, 2012 One of the worst post I've ever read here outside of mine. You need to delete AccuWeather forums from your computer. It's not Accuweather that's causing this, it's probably a combo of delirium and boredom. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
daddylonglegs Posted December 11, 2012 Share Posted December 11, 2012 GFS showing about 10 inches here??? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BowMeHunter Posted December 11, 2012 Share Posted December 11, 2012 It's not Accuweather that's causing this, it's probably a combo of delirium and boredom. I hear ya bud.. Isn't their any mall map club meetings or something to help the boredom. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jonger Posted December 11, 2012 Share Posted December 11, 2012 I'm liking this storm for central Michigan as well... Probably Grand Rapids to Bad Axe and north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted December 11, 2012 Share Posted December 11, 2012 Yep, once a day. Remember when the GFS/MRF only went out to 7 days, or 10 days (I can't remember exactly)...and was only run two times a day? The NAM was the ETA and the NGM was somewhat legit. Well, it's MOS product was. Geez, we've been doing this for too long. Lots of changes over the years. I think the Euro was 00z only. I've spent like half of my years on these boards. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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