andyhb Posted December 9, 2012 Share Posted December 9, 2012 And boom goes the dynamite by the end of the run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowlover2 Posted December 9, 2012 Share Posted December 9, 2012 WOW!!!!!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted December 9, 2012 Share Posted December 9, 2012 Looks like 980ish in eastern OH at 240 hours. So make it all 00z runs with something somewhere in that timeframe. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted December 9, 2012 Share Posted December 9, 2012 It'll probably end up in Minnesota. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted December 9, 2012 Share Posted December 9, 2012 It'll probably end up in Minnesota. Or zonal flow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BowMeHunter Posted December 9, 2012 Share Posted December 9, 2012 Euro, you looks good, won't you back that azz up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowlover2 Posted December 9, 2012 Share Posted December 9, 2012 It'll probably end up in Minnesota. Someone can correct me if i'm wrong but wouldn't the west GLC 2 days before keep thie second storm from going that far north? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted December 9, 2012 Share Posted December 9, 2012 Someone can correct me if i'm wrong but wouldn't the west GLC 2 days before keep thie second storm from going that far north? You would be correct, the first low (which I thought this thread was about) would for the block to force this South. Of course this is hitching upon a lot of things to happen between now and then, so it isn't worth much to gloss over the moving parts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IWXwx Posted December 9, 2012 Share Posted December 9, 2012 The model gods are sure yanking our chain by spitting this stuff out after last winter and the way this winter has begun. Please don't post maps like this for me to pull up while taking drink of coffee. Let's see if Lucy will once again yank the ball away from Charlie Brown in this timeframe. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted December 9, 2012 Share Posted December 9, 2012 The model gods are sure yanking our chain by spitting this stuff out after last winter and the way this winter has begun. Please don't post maps like this for me to pull up while taking drink of coffee. Let's see if Lucy will once again yank the ball away from Charlie Brown in this timeframe. Yes she will which is why fantasy land stuff should stay fantasy instead of forum reality. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted December 9, 2012 Share Posted December 9, 2012 Looks like 980ish in eastern OH at 240 hours. So make it all 00z runs with something somewhere in that timeframe. including the GGEM which has a 980 over the MO/IL border at 240. here we go again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted December 9, 2012 Share Posted December 9, 2012 and *poof*... just like that, it's gone on the 12z gfs. live by the fantasy....die by the fantasy Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted December 9, 2012 Share Posted December 9, 2012 and *poof*... just like that, it's gone on the 12z gfs. live by the fantasy....die by the fantasy Yeah cause the northern vort dropping southeast out of Canada and moving across the nrn plains keeps it to the south not allowing it to move northeast. Repeat. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KokomoWX Posted December 9, 2012 Share Posted December 9, 2012 The model gods are sure yanking our chain by spitting this stuff out after last winter and the way this winter has begun. Please don't post maps like this for me to pull up while taking drink of coffee. Let's see if Lucy will once again yank the ball away from Charlie Brown in this timeframe. But I didn't see any moisture... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted December 9, 2012 Share Posted December 9, 2012 Definitely want to go with under 5 days, maybe 3 days even. It's just amazing how the GFS can be so consistent for a few days, then in one run, *poof*. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted December 9, 2012 Share Posted December 9, 2012 12z Euro might go nuts again. 988 mb low in AR at 216. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted December 9, 2012 Share Posted December 9, 2012 12z Euro might go nuts again. 988 mb low in AR at 216. By my count, this'll be 3 straight OP EURO runs in a row. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted December 9, 2012 Share Posted December 9, 2012 So, AR to PA, 988 to 988. Interesting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted December 9, 2012 Share Posted December 9, 2012 Looks like it's roughly in the same spot at 240 that it was at 00z 240...maybe a bit east. This thing is almost a cutoff low.... There is virtually no true deep arctic air in place which means track is EVERYTHING... this has Ohio heartbreak written all over it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmc76 Posted December 9, 2012 Share Posted December 9, 2012 Looks like it's roughly in the same spot at 240 that it was at 00z 240...maybe a bit east. This thing is almost a cutoff low.... There is virtually no true deep arctic air in place which means track is EVERYTHING... this has Ohio heartbreak written all over it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted December 9, 2012 Share Posted December 9, 2012 need to work on my sarcasm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted December 9, 2012 Share Posted December 9, 2012 AO is down to -3.9 today. Both the AO/NAO are progged to undergo sharp rises (but probably remain negative) around the time of interest. FWIW, the 12z GFS ensembles did not totally give up on a storm around the 18th. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted December 9, 2012 Share Posted December 9, 2012 Yesterday's CPC 6-10 day analogs had December 18, 2007 as one of the dates. Close enough. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted December 9, 2012 Share Posted December 9, 2012 This system is really lacking cold cold air in model land. Wonder if the snowpack in the nrn plains/upper midwest will change that at all. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted December 9, 2012 Share Posted December 9, 2012 This system is really lacking cold cold air in model land. Wonder if the snowpack in the nrn plains/upper midwest will change that at all. it won't....large expansive snowpack will help slow airmass moderation but it isn't going to fuel an artic intrusion. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted December 9, 2012 Share Posted December 9, 2012 Yesterday's CPC 6-10 day analogs had December 18, 2007 as one of the dates. Close enough. You mean Dec 16, 2007? I wasnt going to post this in here (posted in LR thread) because Im not a fan of week+ out storm threads...but since this thread will apparently continue, might as well. Interesting thoughts from DT regarding snowstorm threat Dec 18th timeframe PLAIN ENGLISH NON WEATHER GEEK SPEAK The weather models overnight have moved towards a solution regarding two potential significant events. The first one is the LOW pressure area for DEC 15 which looks like it's going to track up west of Chicago through the upper Plains. That area is experiencing a severe drought so any sort of snowfall there would help quite a bit but it also looks like rain even as far west the Chicago. The SECOND and potentially bigger event would be the first major winter storm the season on or around December 18. A few days ago some of the model data was strongly suggesting this would be in East Coast event but that was premised on the idea of certain things taking place in the atmosphere which enforces the this LOW pressure area to the East coast and not track through the Midwest. That has changed and the overnight weather models continue to support that change. As a result the track now strongly favors the Ohio Valley... With the low pressure area tracking up from Arkansas through Tennessee Eastern Kentucky Eastern Ohio West Virginia and up into the eastern great lakes or perhaps far Western New York State. This would bring widespread significant if not heavy snow to much of western OH IND ILL MI northern MO... But areas to the east such as the ENTIRE EAST COAST ... even into Boston ...would see a record warm temperatures with strong southerly winds . As the LOW moved the northeast into either the eastern great lakes or Western New York State... its cold front would sweep through the East Coast of heavy showers and thunderstorms summer which could be severe . This is all assuming that the current model data which came out early Sunday morning is going to be generally correct. The strong model agreement and the overall atmosphere a pattern strongly supports a Ohio Valley track with the system. keep in mind this is NOT yet a frim forecast .. more like a educated discussion. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted December 9, 2012 Share Posted December 9, 2012 You mean Dec 16, 2007? I mean the analogs had the date Dec 18, 2007. That's why I said "close enough"...you know, to the Dec 15-16, 2007 storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted December 9, 2012 Share Posted December 9, 2012 12z Euro ensemble mean has this, FWIW. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted December 9, 2012 Share Posted December 9, 2012 Probably won't have any cold air, but the Euro ensembles are pretty nice for this next wave this far out... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmc76 Posted December 9, 2012 Share Posted December 9, 2012 Dream pattern setting up for MSP Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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