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A new Baby, a fresh approach


Ginx snewx

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so nam brought wed/thur system closer with at least some moisture making it into eastern sections. gfs is further south than its 6z which one doe we believe? hard to believe that all the storms going to our west and now we may miss one to our south? let see what the other 12z models are saying anyone see the cmc yet?

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people in new england know that a "gradient pattern" is a specific thing. It's not just warm north cold south. The gradient tends to be enhanced relative to normal as a -PNA SW troughing does battle with a -EPO/-NAO forcing cold air into Canada and the northern tier of the US.

Even HM uses the phrase "La Nina gradient pattern" come on now...

Of course there are patterns that produce steeper gradients in the lower 48 - and NE in particular - than other patterns. I understand this, eduggs understands that . His point, which I generally agree with, is that calling for a gradient pattern and noting that we could be on the wrong side is not really a forecast that can be evaluated post facto.

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Of course there are patterns that produce steeper gradients in the lower 48 - and NE in particular - than other patterns. I understand this, eduggs understands that . His point, which I generally agree with, is that calling for a gradient pattern and noting that we could be on the wrong side is not really a forecast that can be evaluated post facto.

I think it can...because in a true gradient pattern you will see colder than normal air to the north and warmer than normal air to the south...if it ends a bit farther north...you still will see that in the anomalies. I mean if you believe the ec ensembles through day 10...that is distinctly not a gradient pattern...so if that came to fruition...the idea of a "gradient pattern" wouldn't be true.

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Of course there are patterns that produce steeper gradients in the lower 48 - and NE in particular - than other patterns. I understand this, eduggs understands that . His point, which I generally agree with, is that calling for a gradient pattern and noting that we could be on the wrong side is not really a forecast that can be evaluated post facto.

Well there's a specific -PNA/La Nina pattern we're referring to with a "gradient" pattern that sets up. It's nothing official just an unofficial term we throw about.

His post was really off base though. If you cut away the weenie posts and just looked at the met posts I think the discussion has been pretty good... I don't know what the problem is.

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Thank you....

Dan when we refer to a gradient up here it is usually in the context of having an intense gradient over or near us that storms run along, particularly SWFE. Don't buy into the senseless provocation that dude is bringing.

I don't think his posts were meant as provocation, though it does seem to have flustered the board. I simply take exception to you calling him stupid ... he is a very knowledgeable poster and actually made some cogent points... the crux of his argument is that 10+ day forecasting is still a dubious proposition, despite the plethora of tools and indices at our disposal.

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I will echo ARLMAWX, this board is turning into a chat room. I used to be able to come to this board and easily find good analysis. Now I have to wade through pages of hot air and socializing. If that is what people want here, so be it. But I lament the loss of analysis and respectable dialogue.

I never thought I would miss the days of Ji and others posting all the maps in order from each GFS run and commenting on them, but I think I am.

I thanks to those who post meaningful analysis and to those who ask good questions.

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that apocalyptic warming article about ski areas made me laugh

Yeah, just seems way over the top. Even with those likely overdone temperature rises most of that will be easily compensated with more efficient snowmaking technology (just look at some of the snowmaking pics PF posted) they already have summertime snowguns, they just use ridiculous amount of compressed air and cost way too much(for now)
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I don't think his posts were meant as provocation, though it does seem to have flustered the board. I simply take exception to you calling him stupid ... he is a very knowledgeable poster and actually made some cogent points... the crux of his argument is that 10+ day forecasting is still a dubious proposition, despite the plethora of tools and indices at our disposal.

you start to lose credit when you b**ch at mets about even discussing it and that they don't forecast in the shorter term...which if you ask me...is where most of the mets including myself strength lies.

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I don't think his posts were meant as provocation, though it does seem to have flustered the board. I simply take exception to you calling him stupid ... he is a very knowledgeable poster and actually made some cogent points... the crux of his argument is that 10+ day forecasting is still a dubious proposition, despite the plethora of tools and indices at our disposal.

Yes that's valid, Skill in that time frame is still low

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I will echo ARLMAWX, this board is turning into a chat room. I used to be able to come to this board and easily find good analysis. Now I have to wade through pages of hot air and socializing. If that is what people want here, so be it. But I lament the loss of analysis and respectable dialogue.

I never thought I would miss the days of Ji and others posting all the maps in order from each GFS run and commenting on them, but I think I am.

I thanks to those who post meaningful analysis and to those who ask good questions.

I agree. We need to do a better job policing ourselves with real solid discussion on the pattern in one thread and banter in another.

Hopefully the mods can help us keep stuff separate. We're all to blame for muddying the discussion... myself included.

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Yeah, just seems way over the top. Even with those likely overdone temperature rises most of that will be easily compensated with more efficient snowmaking technology (just look at some of the snowmaking pics PF posted) they already have summertime snowguns, they just use ridiculous amount of compressed air and cost way too much(for now)

It takes smaller ski areas in CT (which this article apparently focused on) that only take 3 consecutive cold nights to open. I don't think winters 30 years from now are going to be absent of 3 consecutive <28* nights lol. They'll be fine.

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I agree. We need to do a better job policing ourselves with real solid discussion on the pattern in one thread and banter in another.

Hopefully the mods can help us keep stuff separate. We're all to blame for muddying the discussion... myself included.

It has been a bit overboard...even in the banter threads. But the weather has been terribly boring. Even though this is a banter thread I think we all need to make a better effort at cleaning it up. I'll admit I'm somewhat guilty as well. Usually it's weenie posts that suck everyone, including mets, into the crappy post abyss though. Do we cut the problem off at the weenie or give it meds to keep it in remission? Tough decision.
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Well there's a specific -PNA/La Nina pattern we're referring to with a "gradient" pattern that sets up. It's nothing official just an unofficial term we throw about.

His post was really off base though. If you cut away the weenie posts and just looked at the met posts I think the discussion has been pretty good... I don't know what the problem is.

Understood... and any development of high latitude blocking would shift that gradient (and, more importantly, the storm track) to the south so that we would be on the happier side of things.

What is grating about this board is its polarization... the forky/Blizz soap opera, the poster from the NYC forum (who I come in here to get away from) calling for endless torch without any real justification... meanwhile, the good met discussion gets quickly washed away by the tide...

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It takes smaller ski areas in CT (which this article apparently focused on) that only take 3 consecutive cold nights to open. I don't think winters 30 years from now are going to be absent of 3 consecutive <28* nights lol. They'll be fine.

The study was interesting though... did you read it?

One of the issues they mentioned was the economics of being able to deal with a shorter season and not being able to open by Christmas week.

If you haven't read the study yet you should it was thought provoking. Look at all the ski areas that closed in the 80s and early 90s. We may see another wave of them and continue thinning the herd as the economics change but as long as the demand is there people will still be skiing and places will still be open.

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It has been a bit overboard...even in the banter threads. But the weather has been terribly boring. Even though this is a banter thread I think we all need to make a better effort at cleaning it up. I'll admit I'm somewhat guilty as well. Usually it's weenie posts that suck everyone, including mets, into the crappy post abyss though. Do we cut the problem off at the weenie or give it meds to keep it in remission? Tough decision.

Well I think good met/pattern posts shouldn't go in here. There is a lot of good stuff buried in these banter threads that really belongs in the pattern analysis thread. I think that would help.

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you start to lose credit when you b**ch at mets about even discussing it and that they don't forecast in the shorter term...which if you ask me...is where most of the mets including myself strength lies.

Completely agreed. I read his posts quickly last night after a few pops... and, after reading it again, his tone was totally off base regarding the short term forecasts. Some of the best 3-5 day mets are right here... the problem is that we don't have anything interesting to track in that time frame.

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