CoastalWx Posted December 13, 2012 Share Posted December 13, 2012 The differences are so incredible on the models. I really would caution those falling in love with the euro and ensembles not because they are wrong...but because they easily could focus on another s/w and the outcome for storm 2 and 3 is vastly different. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 13, 2012 Share Posted December 13, 2012 I don't understand why some of the mets can't give approximate start times. BOX has snow starting overnight Sat. That all depends on how wave 1 works out. It is possible it could be after midnight Sunday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowMan Posted December 13, 2012 Share Posted December 13, 2012 -SN 12pm SN 1pm +SN 2pm Death 3pm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted December 13, 2012 Share Posted December 13, 2012 If folks have missed out on a lot today, this is probably all you need to know....I thought BOX summed it up pretty nicely here: SO UNFORTUNATELY GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTIES AND TIME RANGE HERE THE BEST WE CAN SAY IS THAT THERE IS A HIGH PROBABILITY OF SEVERAL BOUTS OF WINTRY PRECIP SUN THROUGH WED WITH AT LEAST SOME TRAVEL IMPACTS. HOWEVER DETAILS ON PTYPE/DURATION AND AMOUNTS OF SNOW & ICE WILL HAVE TO WAIT FOR NOW. Thanks. I've been playing catch-up. Was able to see the 12z and 18z gfs, both of which had me cringing, I won't be surprised if we don't really have a handle on mid-week until the Sunday piece is upon us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
N. OF PIKE Posted December 13, 2012 Share Posted December 13, 2012 at this moment for the 12/19 threat based on analogs and modeling i'd pick a spot in S. VT like mt. snow or woodford state park. I think they are safest bet to get hammered. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted December 13, 2012 Share Posted December 13, 2012 We added a key word you must have forgotten to type in haste You always say "we"....how many personalities do you have? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 13, 2012 Share Posted December 13, 2012 You always say "we"....how many personalities do you have? We is the common concensus of the board.. the term "WE" is used for the masses Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Johnno Posted December 13, 2012 Share Posted December 13, 2012 “@MattNoyesNECN: @tollandkev Can u send a link? My ECMWF Ensemble plot is showing sfc T of 35-43 from Tolland to the coast. I trust ya but wud luv 2 c it!” Just had this pop up in my twitter feed Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted December 13, 2012 Share Posted December 13, 2012 Well--the BOX forecast is pretty reasonable--just like the AFD Will posted. Bases are covered. Saturday Night: Mostly cloudy with a 50 percent chance of snow. Lows in the lower 20s. Sunday And Sunday Night: Cloudy with a 50 percent chance of snow. Highs around 30. Lows in the mid 20s. Monday: Cloudy with a chance of snow and sleet. Highs in the lower 30s. Chance of precipitation 30 percent. Monday Night: Mostly cloudy with a 40 percent chance of snow. Near steady temperature in the upper 20s. Tuesday: Mostly cloudy with a chance of snow...freezing rain and sleet. Highs in the lower 30s. Chance of precipitation 50 percent. Tuesday Night: Cloudy with a chance of snow...sleet and freezing rain. Near steady temperature around 30. Chance of precipitation 50 percent. Wednesday: Mostly cloudy with a chance of snow and rain. Highs in the mid 30s. Chance of precipitation 40 percent. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted December 13, 2012 Share Posted December 13, 2012 “@MattNoyesNECN: @tollandkev Can u send a link? My ECMWF Ensemble plot is showing sfc T of 35-43 from Tolland to the coast. I trust ya but wud luv 2 c it!” Just had this pop up in my twitter feed LOL oh boy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Torchey Posted December 13, 2012 Share Posted December 13, 2012 pickles I saw your question earlier but, still can't get info for today. It was a +2 here today. These are the big 4 valid through December 11, 2012 bos+5.0 bdl+3.9 pvd+5.8 orh+6.9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 13, 2012 Share Posted December 13, 2012 “@MattNoyesNECN: @tollandkev Can u send a link? My ECMWF Ensemble plot is showing sfc T of 35-43 from Tolland to the coast. I trust ya but wud luv 2 c it!” Just had this pop up in my twitter feed Kevin @TollandKev @MattNoyesNECN Are we trusting 2m temps from an ENS mean? Or are we factoring in model bias? Something to consider anyway right? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted December 13, 2012 Share Posted December 13, 2012 Kevin @TollandKev @MattNoyesNECN Are we trusting 2m temps from an ENS mean? Or are we factoring in model bias? Something to consider anyway right? Does Noyes understand that he's talking with someone who uses weenie-ology instead of meteorology/modelology? It doesn't matter what the models show...it's always snowy in CT Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SlantStickers Anonymous Posted December 13, 2012 Share Posted December 13, 2012 Kevin @TollandKev @MattNoyesNECN Are we trusting 2m temps from an ENS mean? Or are we factoring in model bias? Something to consider anyway right? LOL fantastic, maybe he can get Matt to mention tolland on air. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted December 13, 2012 Share Posted December 13, 2012 People use 2M temps for a 120 hour ensemble mean? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Johnno Posted December 13, 2012 Share Posted December 13, 2012 “@MattNoyesNECN: @tollandkev ...are probably on similar page, actually, unless thinking all snow in Southern NewEng. Anyway, next few days 2b fun!” Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 13, 2012 Share Posted December 13, 2012 People use 2M temps for a 120 hour ensemble mean? 2M temps shouldn't be available in an ensemble mean. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 13, 2012 Share Posted December 13, 2012 “@MattNoyesNECN: @tollandkev Can u send a link? My ECMWF Ensemble plot is showing sfc T of 35-43 from Tolland to the coast. I trust ya but wud luv 2 c it!” Just had this pop up in my twitter feed Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted December 13, 2012 Share Posted December 13, 2012 2M temps shouldn't be available in an ensemble mean. To be honest I don't know why they'd be of any use to anyone. 850mb temps in an ensemble mean for a storm situation is pretty useless too 144 hour out as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted December 13, 2012 Share Posted December 13, 2012 Bob Maxon @bobmaxon @mattnoyesnecn careful with Kevin, he is always right and it always snows in Tolland....6 days out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted December 13, 2012 Share Posted December 13, 2012 Bob Maxon @bobmaxon @mattnoyesnecn careful with Kevin, he is always right and it always snows in Tolland....6 days out. That's hilarious. Everyone knows his game it seems lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 13, 2012 Share Posted December 13, 2012 Board hiccup? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted December 13, 2012 Share Posted December 13, 2012 UKMet is a pretty fun solution too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowMan Posted December 13, 2012 Share Posted December 13, 2012 UKMet is a pretty fun solution too. Go on.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted December 13, 2012 Share Posted December 13, 2012 That's hilarious. Everyone knows his game it seems lol. Yes and we need someone to blame our own weeniesm on. Kevins not the only spotter that over reports snow totals, unless there is a 1 mile wide screw zone that magically follows me wherever I move. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted December 13, 2012 Share Posted December 13, 2012 Yes and we need someone to blame our own weeniesm on. Kevins not the only spotter that over reports snow totals, unless there is a 1 mile wide screw zone that magically follows me wherever I move. Huh? No one is talking about over reporting snow totals. He's been spot on this season. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted December 13, 2012 Share Posted December 13, 2012 UKMet is a pretty fun solution too. What's that show? Can only see to hour 72 on Ewall. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKpowdah Posted December 13, 2012 Share Posted December 13, 2012 You can see on the GFS how the first wave deamplifies and lifts northeast over NY ... as a result, the warm advection ahead of it isn't countered by much in the way of CAA on the backside, or any reinforcement whatsoever ... another way of thinking about how the second wave could fail to produce much in the way of snow in New England *with this particular shortwave balance Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted December 13, 2012 Share Posted December 13, 2012 What's that show? Can only see to hour 72 on Ewall. ewall has it to 144 on the left margin. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted December 13, 2012 Share Posted December 13, 2012 Someone start a new thread before the 00z runs...we're around 2k in this one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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