Mr Torchey Posted December 12, 2012 Share Posted December 12, 2012 If I had to take a stab at this I would lean towards the Euro with the initial wave (colder solution) and lean towards the gfs with the stronger storm mid week, perhaps a blend with a track across se ne. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eduggs Posted December 12, 2012 Share Posted December 12, 2012 Excellent storm for Albany, their greatest snow storm for December with 26.4". Way better than Dec 1992, which was a disaster for ALB. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted December 12, 2012 Share Posted December 12, 2012 Virtually every GEFS member is a driving rainstorm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted December 12, 2012 Share Posted December 12, 2012 LOL at the GFS nonsense. Entire suite is tossed. Noyes is riding GEFS not surprisingly Well we could all just not post outside of the 1pm-4pm timeframe. Or we can talk about the models. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 12, 2012 Share Posted December 12, 2012 The model physics must be playing a pretty big part of the differing model suites....I just checked the GGEM ensemble mean and it looks pretty close to the OP....thats all 3 ensemble means (GFS, ECMWF, GGEM) that all look pretty close to their OP run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SlantStickers Anonymous Posted December 12, 2012 Share Posted December 12, 2012 So we've got a Mexican standoff in the models with no hints of which way things will cave? Exciting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted December 12, 2012 Share Posted December 12, 2012 I feel like we've been discussing this for days...wait we have! And it's still d4 and beyond. Although I'm more confident of SOME snow in the first system. When systems are like this, almost ALWAYS the lead system gives it up for the f/u. I doubt we get 3 descreet storms. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Torchey Posted December 12, 2012 Share Posted December 12, 2012 The model physics must be playing a pretty big part of the differing model suites....I just checked the GGEM ensemble mean and it looks pretty close to the OP....thats all 3 ensemble means (GFS, ECMWF, GGEM) that all look pretty close to their OP run. Thats incredible that all three model ens agree with there operational runs and two of the three are far apart. Interesting, should be a great few days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted December 12, 2012 Share Posted December 12, 2012 Thats incredible that all three model ens agree with there operational runs and two of the three are far apart. Interesting, should be a great few days. Probably small changes in initial conditions. I think the torch is the 80s celtics. Even with an injured bill Walton it'll find a way to win. Get out your rubbas Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted December 13, 2012 Share Posted December 13, 2012 Probably small changes in initial conditions. I think the torch is the 80s celtics. Even with an injured bill Walton it'll find a way to win. Get out your rubbas Provided they didn't have to play the Lakers (other than one year...) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Torchey Posted December 13, 2012 Share Posted December 13, 2012 Probably small changes in initial conditions. I think the torch is the 80s celtics. Even with an injured bill Walton it'll find a way to win. Get out your rubbas Just nice to have storms. I could look forward to a rainer just as long as we get some wind and ski country gets pasted. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Torchey Posted December 13, 2012 Share Posted December 13, 2012 I would imagine it might be a while before things are settled in the model world, 3 different s/w's and pretty short wavelengths to boot. Fun times Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ctsnowstorm628 Posted December 13, 2012 Share Posted December 13, 2012 LOL at the GFS nonsense. Entire suite is tossed. Noyes is riding GEFS not surprisingly Noyes is a fantastic met. GFS is probably over done, but usually when Noyes keys in on something he has a reason. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted December 13, 2012 Share Posted December 13, 2012 Can we lobby TWC to name the storm Bryce? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted December 13, 2012 Share Posted December 13, 2012 Can we lobby TWC to name the storm Bryce? Can't they already used it to Kevin's snowstorm today Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 13, 2012 Share Posted December 13, 2012 Yeah Will..how interesting regarding how the euro and GFS handle the s/w's and yet every ensemble mean is sort of siding with their op run. The 12z GEFS did sway from thw 12z GFS op. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 13, 2012 Share Posted December 13, 2012 Can we lobby TWC to name the storm Bryce? I want to put him in a snow bank and take a pic, like Will's parents did. It looked like he was left at the curb in that pic...lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 13, 2012 Share Posted December 13, 2012 Noyes is a fantastic met. GFS is probably over done, but usually when Noyes keys in on something he has a reason. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 13, 2012 Share Posted December 13, 2012 I want to put him in a snow bank and take a pic, like Will's parents did. It looked like he was left at the curb in that pic...lol. Will he have a Mighty Mac on in the picture like Will? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 13, 2012 Share Posted December 13, 2012 What time are we thinking snow breaks out? late Saturday night like maybe pre dawn Sunday? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 13, 2012 Share Posted December 13, 2012 If folks have missed out on a lot today, this is probably all you need to know....I thought BOX summed it up pretty nicely here: SO UNFORTUNATELY GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTIES AND TIME RANGE HERE THE BEST WE CAN SAY IS THAT THERE IS A HIGH PROBABILITY OF SEVERAL BOUTS OF WINTRY PRECIP SUN THROUGH WED WITH AT LEAST SOME TRAVEL IMPACTS. HOWEVER DETAILS ON PTYPE/DURATION AND AMOUNTS OF SNOW & ICE WILL HAVE TO WAIT FOR NOW. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted December 13, 2012 Share Posted December 13, 2012 What time are we thinking snow breaks out? late Saturday night like maybe pre dawn Sunday? 11:27AM Sunday Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 13, 2012 Share Posted December 13, 2012 11:27AM Sunday I was just trying to get an idea for folks travelling ,Christmas shopping and those going to Pats game. Should be asnow globe there Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 13, 2012 Share Posted December 13, 2012 If folks have missed out on a lot today, this is probably all you need to know....I thought BOX summed it up pretty nicely here: SO UNFORTUNATELY GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTIES AND TIME RANGE HERE THE BEST WE CAN SAY IS THAT THERE IS A HIGH PROBABILITY OF SEVERAL BOUTS OF WINTRY PRECIP SUN THROUGH WED WITH AT LEAST SOME TRAVEL IMPACTS. HOWEVER DETAILS ON PTYPE/DURATION AND AMOUNTS OF SNOW & ICE WILL HAVE TO WAIT FOR NOW. That is completely false. We know exactly what will happen. Throw the GFS and its ensembles out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 13, 2012 Share Posted December 13, 2012 That is completely false. We know exactly what will happen. Throw the GFS and its ensembles out. So what time are you thinking snow starts Sunday? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 13, 2012 Share Posted December 13, 2012 Most of the guidance does have weenie snow on Sunday....but doesn't mean they are correct yet. GFS changes the snow over mid afternoon...other guidance keeps it colder. Biggest differences are what happens Sunday night and Monday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 13, 2012 Share Posted December 13, 2012 Most of the guidance does have weenie snow on Sunday....but doesn't mean they are correct yet. GFS changes the snow over mid afternoon...ALL other guidance keeps it colder. Biggest differences are what happens Sunday night and Monday. We added a key word you must have forgotten to type in haste Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted December 13, 2012 Share Posted December 13, 2012 No ... what you're looking at in that 18z GFS evolution is a lack of antecedent cold air/thicknesses in the lower troposphere leading into the interval when the trough takes on it's greatest amplitude. You need that to steepen frontal slopes, where by you can more efficiently tap parcels into difluence aloft, thus accelerating UVM. Rising atmospheric motion induces height falls; that causes a deepening feed-back and all levels then benefit. In this case, the GFS is rather amorphous with the llv gradients. There is a lot of hydrostatic forcing with those jetlets ripping overhead and that is why it deepens any surface response at all.. Consider the Euro - it's colder in the low levels. We are not currently in the Euro's wheel house yet at D6 + We could see this all evaporate, believe it or not. Barring that taking place ... I would venture that the Euro finer grid resolution may be the way the go. Also, seeing negative temperature anomalies all throughout Canada, and then having antecedent NAO blocking leading, would tend to argue spatially for a colder result. Big polar highs parked N of Maine anchored by NAO, over a snow pack with on-going negative anomalies really does not lend to a GFS April like thickness pattern. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 13, 2012 Share Posted December 13, 2012 So what time are you thinking snow starts Sunday? -SN 12pm SN 1pm +SN 2pm Death 3pm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 13, 2012 Share Posted December 13, 2012 -SN 12pm SN 1pm +SN 2pm Death 3pm I don't understand why some of the mets can't give approximate start times. BOX has snow starting overnight Sat. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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