wxmanmitch Posted December 12, 2012 Share Posted December 12, 2012 Definitely some similarities there. If this happened again perhaps someone from the board could come cut Happy Valley, ineedsnow, and I down from the trees we'd be dangling from. (stolen from Will at Eastern) It looks like the 16" report from Will's old map is from around my neck of the woods. Certainly not impossible given how topographically natured that event was, except I found this chart on the CBS 6 Albany historical weather page that mentions 30" in Pittsfield. While there's no way to ascertain exactly where in town the 16" and 30" measurements were taken or whether they're accurate, that storm produced some tremendous elevation dependent gradients. I'd kill to see another storm like this again simply to experience the meteorology of it, since I was not only a bit young when it occurred, I lived in SW CT where we had mostly rain. It did flip to 5-6" of paste on the second day as the winds backed northerly. The December '92 event was vertically stacked and occluded so the usual frontogenetical mid-level precipitation processes were nearly lacking. Instead, it was the high PWAT, easterly LLJ that dominated and determined the precipitation distribution that was observed across SNE. Add in the marginal thermal profiles, and we had two factors that helped produce those epic short distance gradients. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted December 12, 2012 Share Posted December 12, 2012 18z GFS is hideous. Still lots of time for this to play out so let's not get too excited. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
N. OF PIKE Posted December 12, 2012 Share Posted December 12, 2012 savoy and peru aghhhhh and i think weenie ridge in princeton was close to that 42 i think. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorEaster27 Posted December 12, 2012 Share Posted December 12, 2012 The strong PAC jet and displaced vortex favor a warm solution Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowMan Posted December 12, 2012 Share Posted December 12, 2012 The strong PAC jet and displaced vortex favor a warm solution For you...yes.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted December 12, 2012 Share Posted December 12, 2012 I wouldnt totally toss it right now...but its definitely the outlier in terms of the cold air available for system 1. It has the weakest advection and southward advance of the high. NAM (yes 84h)/Ukie/GGEM/Euro all much more impressive with it. But we are still far enough out that it could be right. But really only for another couple runs....one camp will be wrong on that. 18z GFS did bring it slightly further south, but it was pretty negligible. Probably going to see a compromise as usual...GFS will go colder, others maybe a touch warmer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 12, 2012 Share Posted December 12, 2012 Probably going to see a compromise as usual...GFS will go colder, others maybe a touch warmer. Yeah certainly possible, but it's also a matter on how models develop the first wave. It may be one of those cases where one model set caves to the other. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 12, 2012 Share Posted December 12, 2012 Probably going to see a compromise as usual...GFS will go colder, others maybe a touch warmer. Yeah I used to always say the Euro didn't normally "win outright". It was often a compromise heavily in favor of the Euro. Like a 70/30 or 75/25 blend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChrisM Posted December 12, 2012 Share Posted December 12, 2012 Yeah certainly possible, but it's also a matter on how models develop the first wave. It may be one of those cases where one model set caves to the other. as in GFS caves to the rest of the world of models... I'll take the euro ens over the op gfs 11 out of 10 times. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SouthCoastMA Posted December 12, 2012 Share Posted December 12, 2012 The strong PAC jet and displaced vortex favor a warm solution Luckily for New England, there are other factors at play aside from the PAC jet and displaced vortex north of Alaska. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eduggs Posted December 12, 2012 Share Posted December 12, 2012 The 18z GFS is pretty dreadful... slightly worse even than the 12z. With the first system it's phasing part of the shortwave over the Lakes with a trailing shortwave and pumping the heights into the northeast. And then this mid-level center with weak primary surface center never fully fills and weakens, so colder thicknesses don't advect southeast through NYS and SNE ahead of the next deeper s/w. The CMC, Euro, and both ensemble suites were flatter with the lead wave and subsequently colder thereafter. I suspect the GFS corrects south/flatter with the first wave with less shortwave interaction, similar to other guidance. The followup system then probably takes a more southeasterly route, ultimately ending up close to where the 180hr GFS panel has it. The height spacing at 500mb suggests a southeasterly correction is possible with the bigger wave. But as Will cautions, this solution is viable. Recent GFS runs and several ensemble members have shown warm, rainy solutions. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hazey Posted December 12, 2012 Share Posted December 12, 2012 My money is on the euro. I think the gfs is having trouble on where to place the low. Boy though the gfs puts out a lot of qpf for Maine , southern New Brunswick , and Nova Scotia. Not that it would be snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted December 12, 2012 Share Posted December 12, 2012 Yeah I used to always say the Euro didn't normally "win outright". It was often a compromise heavily in favor of the Euro. Like a 70/30 or 75/25 blend. That would probably be a fairly decent forecast at this point. Targeting CNE from the Pike north to the Lakes Region of NH. And in reality that area has always seemed to have the best chances for the most wintery outcome from the first system, with lesser chances up north here and further south in CT/RI. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted December 12, 2012 Share Posted December 12, 2012 Dec 1992 is my 2nd favorite event...absolutely magical...about 20" of cement, after a couple of inches of pelting rain. What a way to herald in a snowy regime after the meterological "armpit era" of the late 80's-early 90's...my childhood. First huge event I really got to enjoy, and comprehend. Damn...I'm old. I was already into presbyopia. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted December 12, 2012 Share Posted December 12, 2012 Damn...I'm old. I was already into presbyopia. Had to look that up. That is me now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChrisM Posted December 12, 2012 Share Posted December 12, 2012 Damn...I'm old. I was already into presbyopia. ha, I was two! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 12, 2012 Share Posted December 12, 2012 as in GFS caves to the rest of the world of models... I'll take the euro ens over the op gfs 11 out of 10 times. Well the Euro may also come NW a bit and make it more dicey for a larger area. It doesn't always have to be one model caving in to the other. Many times a model suite has the right idea, but the position is still off from what it showed a week out. But we have 3 s/w's here....have fun figuring how all these work out. As Will and many others said, there is a long way to go...cannot stress this enough. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 12, 2012 Share Posted December 12, 2012 Damn...I'm old. I was already into presbyopia. That was about 5 yrs early for me, Once i hit 40 it was like somebody flipped on the light switch Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 12, 2012 Share Posted December 12, 2012 Well the Euro may also come NW a bit and make it more dicey for a larger area. It doesn't always have to be one model caving in to the other. Many times a model suite has the right idea, but the position is still off from what it showed a week out. But we have 3 s/w's here....have fun figuring how all these work out. As Will and many others said, there is a long way to go...cannot stress this enough. And not a whole lot of spacing between them, One of them probably gets absorbed or sheared to death Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted December 12, 2012 Share Posted December 12, 2012 Those Euro ensembles....wow! Literally a foot plus for most of us in NE. If only! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted December 12, 2012 Share Posted December 12, 2012 Does anyone have an analog for the 18z gfs handy? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 12, 2012 Share Posted December 12, 2012 18Z GEFS are pretty amped up too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eduggs Posted December 12, 2012 Share Posted December 12, 2012 The plethora of shortwaves is wreaking havoc on the guidance. It is proving very difficult to resolve the interactions between shortwaves. Take the first wave that movies through the Lakes between day 3 and day 4. It has dampening influences (running into upstream side of cutoff/trov over Maritimes) and strengthening influences (downstream side of trailing shortwave north of the Dakotas). Shortwaves tend to strengthen and become increasingly negative tilted as they move along the downstream flank of a trailing wave. But this wave is simultanously flattening and deamplifying against the Atlantic cutoff. Best guess is that the suppressive forces win out against the strengthening forces, but it's really just guessing at this point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
radarman Posted December 12, 2012 Share Posted December 12, 2012 It looks like the 16" report from Will's old map is from around my neck of the woods. Certainly not impossible given how topographically natured that event was, except I found this chart on the CBS 6 Albany historical weather page that mentions 30" in Pittsfield. While there's no way to ascertain exactly where in town the 16" and 30" measurements were taken or whether they're accurate, that storm produced some tremendous elevation dependent gradients. I'd kill to see another storm like this again simply to experience the meteorology of it, since I was not only a bit young when it occurred, I lived in SW CT where we had mostly rain. It did flip to 5-6" of paste on the second day as the winds backed northerly. The December '92 event was vertically stacked and occluded so the usual frontogenetical mid-level precipitation processes were nearly lacking. Instead, it was the high PWAT, easterly LLJ that dominated and determined the precipitation distribution that was observed across SNE. Add in the marginal thermal profiles, and we had two factors that helped produce those epic short distance gradients. Mitch do you know if the Valley so dramatically underperformed due to a warm BL or was it more the typical downsloping effect we often see with strong easterly winds? (eg. Boxing Day) edit- probably both I suppose, weak echoes promoting lousy dendite growth with little cold air mixing down. Still that's just an insane gradient. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted December 12, 2012 Author Share Posted December 12, 2012 When I saw the Euro today it reminded me of this storm, classic rain to snow on the CP and a beast inland http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/December_1969_nor'easter Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted December 12, 2012 Share Posted December 12, 2012 18z GFS is hideous. Still lots of time for this to play out so let's not get too excited. Lots of time for it to get much better or become a Buffalo Bills Bomber Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Torchey Posted December 12, 2012 Share Posted December 12, 2012 Going to be a great battle, GEFS pretty much agree with the operational, same with the Euro and its Ens. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 12, 2012 Share Posted December 12, 2012 Euro ensembles and GFS ensembles are pretty drastically different by just 72-84 hours with the shortwave spacing between #1 and #2. Euro keeps #2 more defined to the west while the GEFS really tries to incorporate it. This is almost a flip from earlier...remember when I made the comment how the Euro was so different from its 00z run out west I didn't even know where to start. The GEFS uses wave #2 to amp up #1 pretty big before it weakens too much into the block. Its a really bizarre and complex setup. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
heavy_wx Posted December 12, 2012 Share Posted December 12, 2012 When I saw the Euro today it reminded me of this storm, classic rain to snow on the CP and a beast inland http://en.wikipedia...._nor'easter Excellent storm for Albany, their greatest snow storm for December with 26.4". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 12, 2012 Share Posted December 12, 2012 LOL at the GFS nonsense. Entire suite is tossed. Noyes is riding GEFS not surprisingly Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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