Zeus Posted December 12, 2012 Share Posted December 12, 2012 Oh I didn't mean the actual discussion...I meant the new layout to the pages. I liked the old one better. And I wasn't responding to your pages comment, rather the "more rain in them than I'd have expected" part. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted December 12, 2012 Share Posted December 12, 2012 Where you seeing that ? Holy cow - my weenie goggles must have fogged up. I thought the image Ginx posted a page back showed Dec 1992 as the #1 analog... Never mind. Must get coffee... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zeus Posted December 12, 2012 Share Posted December 12, 2012 Hey Will ... Harv and I once commiserated how 3/4 of the 1992 output fell as rain in a lot of places that received still recouped a foot to a foot and a half of snow, late. Maybe just maybe this is pay back - muah hahahahahahaha. I can never shake the feeling that you live in a dark basement that you nickname "the lair" or "batcave." Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted December 12, 2012 Share Posted December 12, 2012 Oh I didn't mean the actual discussion...I meant the new layout to the pages. I liked the old one better. Yeah. Hideous. Thank goodness my bookmarked one is still coming up as the old one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEK_VT_Upslope_Event Posted December 12, 2012 Share Posted December 12, 2012 I must say I am excited to be in NNE for the next couple of weeks! This should be good, would probably take worse luck than usual not to get some significant snow over the next 1 1/2 to 2 weeks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Neblizzard Posted December 12, 2012 Share Posted December 12, 2012 The euro ensembles have quite a pattern going after the storm on the 19th. Big time -NAO and a -EPO/+PNA, the next several weeks may be quite entertaining to see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted December 12, 2012 Share Posted December 12, 2012 It's awesome how the Mets on this forum have been pain stakingly illustrating a colder 2nd half of December for various reasons, then NCEP says this today ... THE PNA INDEX IS FORECAST TO REMAIN NEGATIVE BY MOST 0Z GFS ENSEMBLE MEMBERS THROUGHOUT THE NEXT TWO WEEKS ALTHOUGH SPREAD BEGINS TO INCREASE LATE IN WEEK-2. NEAR TO ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE FAVORED FOR MUCH OF THE CONUS SINCE STRONG PACIFIC FLOW IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST INTO LATE DECEMBER. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted December 12, 2012 Share Posted December 12, 2012 classic santa said you have not been good http://www.portablen...a-JBBcN82cQm0PA That is awesome! "refuses to grow up" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 12, 2012 Share Posted December 12, 2012 December 92 does become one of the most overused weenie analogs whenever there is a closed low south of SNE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowMan Posted December 12, 2012 Share Posted December 12, 2012 Hey Will ... Harv and I once commiserated how 3/4 of the 1992 output fell as rain in a lot of places that received still recouped a foot to a foot and a half of snow, late. Maybe just maybe this is pay back - muah hahahahahahaha. You need sleep... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 12, 2012 Share Posted December 12, 2012 On a side note, the new NOAA pages...yuck. http://www.weather.gov/box/ The actual NOAA forecasts for next week have more rain in them than I'd have expected based on the talk here. Someone should give them the link. They have some sort of snow in the forecast for like 4 straight days in the interior...which is consistent with what we have been talking about. There is a chance we end up too warm too. So they have rain or snow in a lot of the panels except Sunday night which is snow or a wintry mix....which is also probably correct as that earlier event will be coldest prob Sunday event and has the better of the two air masses. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted December 12, 2012 Share Posted December 12, 2012 December 92 does become one of the most overused weenie analogs whenever there is a closed low south of SNE. Was it showing up as an anlaog earlier? My brain must be frazzled. The image Ginx posted now has Dec 2010 as the top Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
N. OF PIKE Posted December 12, 2012 Share Posted December 12, 2012 nice cold day today...anyone have the high's for the big 4. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 12, 2012 Share Posted December 12, 2012 December 92 does become one of the most overused weenie analogs whenever there is a closed low south of SNE. It was a very unique storm. There is a reason we havent had a repeat since. April '97 was probably the closest....but aspects of that one were definitely different too. Then the March 2010 disaster about 1C too warm. This one as modeled does have some pretty striking similarities....but we've seen this before modeled 6-7 days out only to morph into something different as we get closer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted December 12, 2012 Author Share Posted December 12, 2012 classic santa said you have not been good http://www.portablen...a-JBBcN82cQm0PA LOL Jaime is the best Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 12, 2012 Share Posted December 12, 2012 Was it showing up as an anlaog earlier? My brain must be frazzled. The image Ginx posted now has Dec 2010 as the top It was, and the euro ensembles have some similarities, but just because the h5 pattern has similarities, doesn't mean the outcome is similar. Of course it will happen again, but I cringe sometimes when it gets thrown around without understanding what the storm did. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted December 12, 2012 Author Share Posted December 12, 2012 Was it showing up as an anlaog earlier? My brain must be frazzled. The image Ginx posted now has Dec 2010 as the top Look at the time stamp. Yea 92 was in the mix at one time. Just remember bro its a snap in time, only shows what the upper air was similar to. Another piece of guidance to look at. I think I posted like 5 times that analogs are best used to get an idea what the Upper Air might look like. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted December 12, 2012 Share Posted December 12, 2012 Look at the time stamp. Yea 92 was in the mix at one time. Just remember bro its a snap in time, only shows what the upper air was similar to. Another piece of guidance to look at. I think I posted like 5 times that analogs are best used to get an idea what the Upper Air might look like. Gotcha - I am not expecting a Dec 1992 nor should anyone. I was just confused by how it switched/got updated. I was also not clear on how often that even comes up as an analog for any setup Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Torchey Posted December 12, 2012 Share Posted December 12, 2012 Toss the GFS? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 12, 2012 Share Posted December 12, 2012 Ahhh, Then we have the 18z gfs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted December 12, 2012 Share Posted December 12, 2012 Well, it will be a cold rain at least Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quincy Posted December 12, 2012 Share Posted December 12, 2012 18z GFS Apps runner by early Tuesday morning... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 12, 2012 Share Posted December 12, 2012 Toss the GFS? I wouldnt totally toss it right now...but its definitely the outlier in terms of the cold air available for system 1. It has the weakest advection and southward advance of the high. NAM (yes 84h)/Ukie/GGEM/Euro all much more impressive with it. But we are still far enough out that it could be right. But really only for another couple runs....one camp will be wrong on that. 18z GFS did bring it slightly further south, but it was pretty negligible. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChrisM Posted December 12, 2012 Share Posted December 12, 2012 nice cold day today...anyone have the high's for the big 4. LL should have them...he does every time it's warm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quincy Posted December 12, 2012 Share Posted December 12, 2012 I wouldnt totally toss it right now...but its definitely the outlier in terms of the cold air available for system 1. It has the weakest advection and southward advance of the high. NAM (yes 84h)/Ukie/GGEM/Euro all much more impressive with it. But we are still far enough out that it could be right. But really only for another couple runs....one camp will be wrong on that. 18z GFS did bring it slightly further south, but it was pretty negligible. The latest 15z SREF was also showing this as well, much colder air locked in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Torchey Posted December 12, 2012 Share Posted December 12, 2012 I wouldnt totally toss it right now...but its definitely the outlier in terms of the cold air available for system 1. It has the weakest advection and southward advance of the high. NAM (yes 84h)/Ukie/GGEM/Euro all much more impressive with it. But we are still far enough out that it could be right. But really only for another couple runs....one camp will be wrong on that. 18z GFS did bring it slightly further south, but it was pretty negligible. What about for the follow up system? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 12, 2012 Share Posted December 12, 2012 The latest 15z SREF was also showing this as well, much colder air locked in. Yeah I noticed that...they trended better from 09z. This makes me a bit skeptical of the GFS. Euro ensembles were pretty cold as well. This part of the setup isn't that far out, so I'd expect a better consesus pretty soon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 12, 2012 Share Posted December 12, 2012 What about for the follow up system? I wouldn't throw anything out for the last system next week....that could really do anything at this point. The Quebec blocking would probably make a Detroit track pretty tough...but outside from that, anything from a suppressed track to a big inland Apps runner is possible. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Torchey Posted December 12, 2012 Share Posted December 12, 2012 I wouldn't throw anything out for the last system next week....that could really do anything at this point. The Quebec blocking could probably make a Detroit track pretty tough...but outside from that, anything from a suppressed track to a big inland Apps runner is possible. Thanks Will Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Alpha5 Posted December 12, 2012 Share Posted December 12, 2012 GFS runs the lows over the major cities, trough goes negative and storm goes up into VT. Cold rain up and down the coast. Big differences between the GFS and Euro Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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