powderfreak Posted December 12, 2012 Share Posted December 12, 2012 I refuse to get sucked into this conversation - nice try ahahha Ok... not really a baiting discussion. Not sure what you are getting at. Will/ORH seemed to agree that the source region isn't exactly bleeding arctic air. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChrisM Posted December 12, 2012 Share Posted December 12, 2012 Maybe a GTG at Dendrite's? I mean to ski lol, I've been running 2 miles a day trying to rehab in time. So much pppaaaaiiiinnn. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted December 12, 2012 Share Posted December 12, 2012 I think there's a pretty good dry slot between Will's ears - Great way to avoid being sucked into a discussion... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted December 12, 2012 Share Posted December 12, 2012 I wouldn't give up on colder solution, particularly in the 2nd half for you guys in your part of the MA. I could definitely visualize a flash collapse of a rain snow line about mid way through, as the dynamics maximize and the BL wind in NJ goes more NNE as opposed to ENE. Also, though the 168 panel is impressive, the dynamics don't maximize until closer to the 192 hour panel - in the interim, the lower tropospheric vortex and accompanied frontal structure collocated under the core heights (true capture - hense the slow movement); there will be a period of ecstatic UVM when that happens, resulting in the column thickness dropping like a nympho prom date on the west side of the system. is this meteorologically clad? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted December 12, 2012 Share Posted December 12, 2012 Also - hm... you know what, that's a +PNA at the end of this run. wow Seriously guys - this is a Archembault storm on the Euro. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted December 12, 2012 Share Posted December 12, 2012 is this meteorologically clad? Huh? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 12, 2012 Share Posted December 12, 2012 You miss my point Will - you are talking about details that can't be ironed out at this time range - so the discussion is moot really, particularly when it is rooted in what these guidance's are depicting. Nothing I said brings into question cold sourcing affecting different zones - not sure where that is coming. Ok I see what you mean...but I do think we have a decent idea that this airmass will probably be lacking some punch to it. Even at this time range. But I agree there is enough uncertainty at this range to the point that it may not matter. If the Quebec cold high gets underestimated for several steps of the way along here...we could end up with a paste bomb for even coastal regions and a 26F powder in the interior. Definitely possible. Also, it is probably wise for us not to get too wrappd up in cold air mass vs no cold air mass yet. We could have a January 2004 air mass over us and if this storm tracks up over BUF, it won't matter. Not that I think that type of solution is very plausible, but we are like 7+ days out after all on this particular event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted December 12, 2012 Author Share Posted December 12, 2012 Sometimes that same sfc low position and mid level lows would result in snow down to DC/BWI area...instead they flirt with +10C H85 temps on this run. When 5h is SW of DCA of course, what happens when it gets east of them? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted December 12, 2012 Share Posted December 12, 2012 Great way to avoid being sucked into a discussion... Eh, just having fun givin' folks the business. Yeah ... part of the all this concern, though, to me seems contrived as a defense mechanism. I mean, gee wiz. You got a big polar high N of the area, with a deep closing vortex with core heights beneath 530DM. Even without trying to ferret out details, conceptually you got a good head start. But I guess if people can imagine enough reasons to be negative, they can preemptively alleviate the torture of not fulfilling there snow fix. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted December 12, 2012 Share Posted December 12, 2012 You can tell times have been tough when RED TAGGERS are eloquently discussing a 168 hour OP run. This is what it's come to. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted December 12, 2012 Share Posted December 12, 2012 Ok I see what you mean...but I do think we have a decent idea that this airmass will probably be lacking some punch to it. Even at this time range. But I agree there is enough uncertainty at this range to the point that it may not matter. If the Quebec cold high gets underestimated for several steps of the way along here...we could end up with a paste bomb for even coastal regions and a 26F powder in the interior. Definitely possible. Also, it is probably wholeheartedly definitely without a doubt necessary and therefore wise for us not to get too wrappd up in cold air mass vs no cold air mass yet. We could have a January 2004 air mass over us and if this storm tracks up over BUF, it won't matter. Not that I think that type of solution is very plausible, but we are like 7+ days out after all on this particular event. That is entirely my point Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
N. OF PIKE Posted December 12, 2012 Share Posted December 12, 2012 what a euro run out to 240 hrs wowwy wow drooling Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted December 12, 2012 Share Posted December 12, 2012 what a euro run out to 240 hrs wowwy wow drooling Yeah we haven't seen or discussed it over the last hour and half, what are your thoughts - Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
icebreaker5221 Posted December 12, 2012 Share Posted December 12, 2012 Also - hm... you know what, that's a +PNA at the end of this run. wow It is, but it develops so darn far east. Maybe if it can retrograde a bit we'd be in business for the final 10 days of Dec. Either way the trend is good. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 12, 2012 Share Posted December 12, 2012 Days and days of snow.. Days and days Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted December 12, 2012 Share Posted December 12, 2012 Days and days of snow.. Days and days Hopefully more than we got this past Tuesday/Wednesday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted December 12, 2012 Share Posted December 12, 2012 Hopefully more than we got this past Tuesday/Wednesday. i'm still shoveling. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 12, 2012 Share Posted December 12, 2012 Snow begins Late Sat night and may not stop for 5-7 days Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted December 12, 2012 Share Posted December 12, 2012 oh brother - is this going to be one of those dreaded deals where the snow's stopped, the stars are shining as rapid clearing takes place, the winds have died, and then ... 2 hours later, Kevin posts how there's "hours and hours of snow to go through" ?? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowMan Posted December 12, 2012 Share Posted December 12, 2012 oh brother - is this going to be one of those dreaded deals where the snow's stopped, the stars are shining as rapid clearing takes place, the winds have died, and then ... 2 hours later, Kevin posts how there's "hours and hours of snow to go through" ?? :weenie: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SouthCoastMA Posted December 12, 2012 Share Posted December 12, 2012 eagerly awaiting the euro ensembles, almost as much as toronto blizzard Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CapturedNature Posted December 12, 2012 Share Posted December 12, 2012 I disagree. A colder source region could most definitely be a game changer for the CP and southeast areas. it might not make a difference in the interior...as it would be the difference between 18" of powder or a foot of cement....but Dec '92 (which is a great example) rained for 80% of the storm in Boston, and in SE MA where blizzard wanrings were eventually raised in mid-storm, never really cashed in due to a very marginal BL situation. Heck, even in Dec '92 I was raining in ORH for hours in that in the beginning...cannot convince that a fresher air mass in that situation would have led to an even snowier outcome. That's what I recall too. I don't have access to the data but is this mornings ECMWF hinting at a similar solution before things crash SE? I'm looking forward to this time frame coming up...my birthday is the 19th and I would appreciate a nice gift wrapped in white! lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted December 12, 2012 Share Posted December 12, 2012 Snow begins Late Sat night and may not stop for 5-7 days I am nearly 100 percent certain we won't see 5-7 days of measurable. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ctsnowstorm628 Posted December 12, 2012 Share Posted December 12, 2012 Snow begins Late Sat night and may not stop for 5-7 days LOL love it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 12, 2012 Share Posted December 12, 2012 oh brother - is this going to be one of those dreaded deals where the snow's stopped, the stars are shining as rapid clearing takes place, the winds have died, and then ... 2 hours later, Kevin posts how there's "hours and hours of snow to go through" ?? Did mom forget to give your pills this morning down there in the basement Sloth? Chunky chocolate bars? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChrisM Posted December 12, 2012 Share Posted December 12, 2012 Tip is ****in crabby today wow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKpowdah Posted December 12, 2012 Share Posted December 12, 2012 65-75kt at 850mb ... from the NORTHEAST. Not. Bad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eduggs Posted December 12, 2012 Share Posted December 12, 2012 I am nearly 100 percent certain we won't see 5-7 days of measurable. 5 days of measurable actually isn't so hard. You could have prolonged lulls and a well timed snow shower or two to pull it off. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 12, 2012 Share Posted December 12, 2012 I am nearly 100 percent certain we won't see 5-7 days of measurable. I wonder if we'll set the record of consecutive days of measurable snowfall with this deal. Snow for 144 hours perhaps Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 12, 2012 Share Posted December 12, 2012 I think the Euro run verbatim gives Hubbdave like half of his seasonal snowfall. Maybe more, lol. He wouldn't be complaining about missing the jackpots in Jan 2011 anymore. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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