A new Baby, a fresh approach

[SouthCoastMA]

Storm actually stalls and then drifts ENE...this hammers the interior. Almost like Dec '92 but a bit north.

You said text that to Ray so he causes a scene in his meeting.

edit: nevermind! I just realized he was already posting.

[Clinch Leatherwood]

Its completely fantasy land... fun to analyze but its just another la la run.

I just like that one of these keeps exploding into a big storm. We get enough 1-3"/2-4" mood snows in the winter... lets roll the dice with a Dec '92 evolution and see what happens, lol.

I'm locking it in. Warm the butter, shovels need to be lubed.

[SnowMan]

Its totally meaningless at this time range whether the snow line makes it to GC, ORH, PSM or Ray's fanny.

I understand...but a weenie can weenie...can't he?

[powderfreak]

christ - i'm just going to sign off for 3 days if i hear another person complain about there not being enough cold air around.

lol... so if it ends up as a torching rainstorm for a chunk of the posters, it certainly wasn't because there wasn't any cold air around right?

[Typhoon Tip]

From an orbital perspective - it is rare to have this sort of amplitude along/off the EC when the flow is so flat in the west. That "flat" appeal, might also have to do with abnormally high wave frequency in the flow damping a background ridge signal... Which is interesting... the flow into N/A may actually be more +PNAP in nature, only "looks" -PNA'ish

[ChrisM]

Yo PF, can I live on your couch for a couple of days?

[dryslot]

Somewhere between 3-4" qpf

[powderfreak]

Euro really never gets the 850 0C line much further north than this panel...its because there is a weak block to the north of this system and the high pressure just stays rotting in Quebec. Its the classic Dec '92 look on that front. If you ever loop the Dec '92 storm on the NARR ewall maps, you'll see what I mean.

A torching rainstorm isn't out of the possibility though. Its just if we had a high anchored in Quebec...even if it is not as fresh as it was several days earlier...that prevents some warmer solutions from occurring.

Yeah I see that now... thank god that cuts off so far south. That looks epic for a lot of the interior and elevated. Deck destroyer 32F paste.

[OKpowdah]

I highly endorse the Euro.

I'm planning on coming up to Plymouth on Monday for a few days... might be trapped there for a week? lol

[DavisStraight]

That analog has been thrown around a lot... looks like an elevation paster on that third one for your area.

I got 18 in in the 92 storm and if I travelled 5 miles (which I did), there was close to 3'. Would love another 92 but a tad more south.

[40/70 Benchmark]

Dec 1992 is my 2nd favorite event...absolutely magical...about 20" of cement, after a couple of inches of pelting rain.

What a way to herald in a snowy regime after the meterological "armpit era" of the late 80's-early 90's...my childhood.

First huge event I really got to enjoy, and comprehend.

[Ginx snewx]

christ - i'm just going to sign off for 3 days if i hear another person complain about there not being enough cold air around.

thank you I concur, its like some missed dynamics class

[weatherMA]

Somewhere between 3-4" qpf

I'm sure if this run verified I'd get 14" while everyone in all directions of me got 2' to 3' lol.

[OKpowdah]

As I just said, the second wave in a series tends to be emphasized in the end. Probably will see some see-saw action between these two disturbances in the model forecasts, but more likely than not, we see the second wave much weaker than the Euro had last night

[Typhoon Tip]

lol... so if it ends up as a torching rainstorm for a chunk of the posters, it certainly wasn't because there wasn't any cold air around right?

if it wound up that way it would have 0, NOTHING, ZILCH, NO correlation to these runs - it would be for mere coincidence at this time range, particularly when you have a synoptic polar high in eastern Ontario with clear dam nose into New England.

None of these runs are dynamically accurate, either. Granted, modeling has come a long way since 1992 - still, even 24 hour before that storm we were supposed to get nothing but rain in the Merrimack Valley where I went to college, and we wound up with 4" of slush, then another 13.5" of powder over top, and that was after a solid 4" of rain went in the gauge.

Ugh -

btw, 1992 was recently sited as an analog for the time frame in question.

[weathafella]

I'm happy to have a good chance of at least some snow.

[powderfreak]

Yo PF, can I live on your couch for a couple of days?

Maybe a GTG at Dendrite's?

[weatherMA]

I'm planning on coming up to Plymouth on Monday for a few days... might be trapped there for a week? lol

LOL maybe. This solution would just be awesome. Do they ever cancel finals? haha

[Zeus]

Euro really never gets the 850 0C line much further north than this panel...its because there is a weak block to the north of this system and the high pressure just stays rotting in Quebec. Its the classic Dec '92 look on that front. If you ever loop the Dec '92 storm on the NARR ewall maps, you'll see what I mean.

A torching rainstorm isn't out of the possibility though. Its just if we had a high anchored in Quebec...even if it is not as fresh as it was several days earlier...that prevents some warmer solutions from occurring.

Seems like this scenario would end up as snow (after a nice soaking rain) even down in my neck of the woods.

I'm with Ryan, though; no way we pull three solid out of this.

[ORH_wxman]

if it wound up that way it would have 0, NOTHING, ZILCH, NO correlation to these runs - it would be for mere coincidence at this time range, particularly when you have a synoptic polar high in eastern Ontario with clear dam nose into New England.

None of these runs are dynamically accurate, either. Granted, modeling has come a long way since 1992 - still, even 24 hour before that storm we were supposed to get nothing but rain in the Merrimack Valley where I went to college, and we wound up with 4" of slush, then another 13.5" of powder over top, and that was after a solid 4" of rain went in the gauge.

Ugh -

btw, 1992 was recently sited as an analog for the time frame in question.

I disagree.

A colder source region could most definitely be a game changer for the CP and southeast areas. it might not make a difference in the interior...as it would be the difference between 18" of powder or a foot of cement....but Dec '92 (which is a great example) rained for 80% of the storm in Boston, and in SE MA where blizzard wanrings were eventually raised in mid-storm, never really cashed in due to a very marginal BL situation. Heck, even in Dec '92 I was raining in ORH for hours in that in the beginning...cannot convince that a fresher air mass in that situation would have led to an even snowier outcome.

[OKpowdah]

LOL maybe. This solution would just be awesome. Do they ever cancel finals? haha

Not while I was there ... didn't get much to test it though lol:

Dec 2009 ... blizzard was way south of here

Dec 2010 ... nothing good until Boxing Day

Dec 2011 ... hah! that's funny ...

[Typhoon Tip]

Soo dec 92 was being thrown around earlier...yeahhh

What an epic rain bomb/coastal flooder on the euro today, which switches to a blue bomb for the interior/high elevs and even eventually coastal new england...so much going on at 500 mb in this pattern so needless to say it will change a million times.

I wouldn't give up on colder solution, particularly in the 2nd half for you guys in your part of the MA. I could definitely visualize a flash collapse of a rain snow line about mid way through, as the dynamics maximize and the BL wind in NJ goes more NNE as opposed to ENE.

Also, though the 168 panel is impressive, the dynamics don't maximize until closer to the 192 hour panel - in the interim, the lower tropospheric vortex and accompanied frontal structure collocated under the core heights (true capture - hense the slow movement); there will be a period of ecstatic UVM when that happens, resulting in the column thickness dropping like a nympho prom date on the west side of the system.

[powderfreak]

if it wound up that way it would have 0, NOTHING, ZILCH, NO correlation to these runs - it would be for mere coincidence at this time range, particularly when you have a synoptic polar high in eastern Ontario with clear dam nose into New England.

None of these runs are dynamically accurate, either. Granted, modeling has come a long way since 1992 - still, even 24 hour before that storm we were supposed to get nothing but rain in the Merrimack Valley where I went to college, and we wound up with 4" of slush, then another 13.5" of powder over top, and that was after a solid 4" of rain went in the gauge.

Ugh -

btw, 1992 was recently sited as an analog for the time frame in question.

I don't think its that there isn't enough cold air around...it can be marginally just cold enough and dynamically induced, but its not like the models are slam dunk snow event with -10C H85s along the Mass Pike for these events that's all. You've got the ECM with a H5 cut-off over the Carolina's with H85 freezing line going from ORH to BUF. Not exactly arctic air.

Sometimes that same sfc low position and mid level lows would result in snow down to DC/BWI area...instead they flirt with +10C H85 temps on this run.

All the comments about "not much cold air around" isn't necessarily aimed at a certain area and that's not to say it can't snow in the Merrimack Valley in December... its more saying that if we had a much better airmass around, this would be a massive hit for everyone from DC to BOS including the coastal plain with that type of mid level and low level tracks. The source region is a bit stale.

[Typhoon Tip]

I don't think its that there isn't enough cold air around...it can be marginally just cold enough and dynamically induced, but its not like the models are slam dunk snow event with -10C H85s along the Mass Pike for these events that's all. You've got the ECM with a H5 cut-off over the Carolina's with H85 freezing line going from ORH to BUF. Not exactly arctic air.

Sometimes that same sfc low position and mid level lows would result in snow down to DC/BWI area...instead they flirt with +10C H85 temps on this run.

I refuse to get sucked into this conversation - nice try ahahha

[Typhoon Tip]

Also - hm... you know what, that's a +PNA at the end of this run. wow

[CoastalWx]

Pretty good Dryslot over Ayer MA.

[Zeus]

I'm happy to have a good chance of at least some snow.

Winter seems to be back in business as of this weekend.

[Typhoon Tip]

I disagree.

A colder source region could most definitely be a game changer for the CP and southeast areas. it might not make a difference in the interior...as it would be the difference between 18" of powder or a foot of cement....but Dec '92 (which is a great example) rained for 80% of the storm in Boston, and in SE MA where blizzard wanrings were eventually raised in mid-storm, never really cashed in due to a very marginal BL situation. Heck, even in Dec '92 I was raining in ORH for hours in that in the beginning...cannot convince that a fresher air mass in that situation would have led to an even snowier outcome.

You miss my point Will -

you are talking about details that can't be ironed out at this time range - so the discussion is moot really, particularly when it is rooted in what these guidance's are depicting.

Nothing I said brings into question cold sourcing affecting different zones - not sure where that is coming.

[NJwinter23]

I wouldn't give up on colder solution, particularly in the 2nd half for you guys in your part of the MA. I could definitely visualize a flash collapse of a rain snow line about mid way through, as the dynamics maximize and the BL wind in NJ goes more NNE as opposed to ENE.

Also, though the 168 panel is impressive, the dynamics don't maximize until closer to the 192 hour panel - in the interim, the lower tropospheric vortex and accompanied frontal structure collocated under the core heights (true capture - hense the slow movement); there will be a period of ecstatic UVM when that happens, resulting in the column thickness dropping like a nympho prom date on the west side of the system.

nice..im not ruling out any possibility at this point

[Typhoon Tip]

Pretty good Dryslot over Ayer MA.

I think there's a pretty good dry slot between Will's ears -