Clinch Leatherwood Posted December 12, 2012 Share Posted December 12, 2012 The interior (esp CNE northward) may hold onto wet snow for event #3 here...but we arenow at hour 180 on the model run, lol....essentially meaningless here. Honestly what's the average error at that range, probably 200-300 miles? I know the data is available for hurricanes, curious about winter storms. Has to be at least 200+ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted December 12, 2012 Share Posted December 12, 2012 The interior (esp CNE northward) may hold onto wet snow for event #3 here...but we arenow at hour 180 on the model run, lol....essentially meaningless here. lol yeah I was just noticing that... the big ticket item is again a solid 7 days out. I still like the fact that one of these amplifies into a decent sized storm. I'm in a roll the dice mood... lets get a whopper and see what happens instead of a couple days of flurries and 1-3"/2-4" type stuff. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowMan Posted December 12, 2012 Share Posted December 12, 2012 The interior (esp CNE northward) may hold onto wet snow for event #3 here...but we arenow at hour 180 on the model run, lol....essentially meaningless here. Let's define CNE...north of Mass boarder? Or is it central VT and NH on north? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted December 12, 2012 Share Posted December 12, 2012 what a ridiculous storm that would be for the distant interior. wow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ctsnowstorm628 Posted December 12, 2012 Share Posted December 12, 2012 Helluva way to end my semester up here. 12+" then I leave in the afternoon after stops to go home to zilch. Good thing this wont verify lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 12, 2012 Share Posted December 12, 2012 Storm actually stalls and then drifts ENE...this hammers the interior. Almost like Dec '92 but a bit north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 12, 2012 Share Posted December 12, 2012 Let's define CNE...north of Mass boarder? Or is it central VT and NH on north? If you are looking for the snow line ont he 3rd event...its N ORH county to berkshires...maybe even far NW CT and northward...but it collapses back SE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherMA Posted December 12, 2012 Share Posted December 12, 2012 I highly endorse the Euro. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowMan Posted December 12, 2012 Share Posted December 12, 2012 If you are looking for the snow line ont he 3rd event...its N ORH county to berkshires...maybe even far NW CT and northward...but it collapses back SE. Nice...so I am good in Amherst, NH...I don't miss Danvers.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Torchey Posted December 12, 2012 Share Posted December 12, 2012 Whatever falls from the sky,nice to have a cyclone Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted December 12, 2012 Share Posted December 12, 2012 what a bomb on the 3rd event. 3rd event? Jesus there's another ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 12, 2012 Share Posted December 12, 2012 To bad that 3rd wave is in clown range Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted December 12, 2012 Author Share Posted December 12, 2012 well why do we have to dry hump the extreme solutions? Just joking Phillipe, my hump, my hump? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quincy Posted December 12, 2012 Share Posted December 12, 2012 Quick estimate looks like a swath of 2"+ precipitation for the 3rd event alone for interior SNE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted December 12, 2012 Share Posted December 12, 2012 Essentially it seems if any of these short waves really amplifies, there just is not enough cold air nearby to come anywhere close to compensating for the WAA a strong low would provide. The ticket would be I guess to keep all three of them relatively weak. Like on the GFS, as soon as one of these lows goes to town there's nothing stopping the WAA from running unabated into Canada. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherMA Posted December 12, 2012 Share Posted December 12, 2012 Nice...so I am good in Amherst, NH...I don't miss Danvers.... LOL well this is a week out...all the specifics are for fun at this point. If this run verified they might consider cancelling exams here even though they supposedly NEVER do...which makes sense. Had them in a solid 6-12" event with 1-2"/hour snow a few years back. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted December 12, 2012 Author Share Posted December 12, 2012 what a bomb on the 3rd event. hump it? LOL what a porno run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 12, 2012 Share Posted December 12, 2012 Nice...so I am good in Amherst, NH...I don't miss Danvers.... Its totally meaningless at this time range whether the snow line makes it to GC, ORH, PSM or Ray's fanny. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
N. OF PIKE Posted December 12, 2012 Share Posted December 12, 2012 The interior (esp CNE northward) may hold onto wet snow for event #3 here...but we are now at hour 180 on the model run, lol....essentially meaningless here. yes, la la land thankfully given what it shows for sne. when i get home from north conway late fri nite (via corsica of course) , i will be more excited to see what euro shows for 3'rd sw then. i am not wasting any emotion on 168-180 progs. i hope by then we have sun -mon lock'd down Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted December 12, 2012 Share Posted December 12, 2012 Storm actually stalls and then drifts ENE...this hammers the interior. Almost like Dec '92 but a bit north. That analog has been thrown around a lot... looks like an elevation paster on that third one for your area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 12, 2012 Share Posted December 12, 2012 3rd wave is Feb 69 type deal where its snows over 36hrs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwinter23 Posted December 12, 2012 Share Posted December 12, 2012 Soo dec 92 was being thrown around earlier...yeahhh What an epic rain bomb/coastal flooder on the euro today, which switches to a blue bomb for the interior/high elevs and even eventually coastal new england...so much going on at 500 mb in this pattern so needless to say it will change a million times. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quincy Posted December 12, 2012 Share Posted December 12, 2012 Storm actually stalls and then drifts ENE...this hammers the interior. Almost like Dec '92 but a bit north. The NARR maps line up pretty nicely, although like you said just a bit further north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted December 12, 2012 Share Posted December 12, 2012 that would be a punishing storm for the places that manage to stay snow. the atmosphere is pretty mild so it would be tons of heavy wet snow. storm just stalls in the GOM and allows for snow over E areas after the main show too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted December 12, 2012 Share Posted December 12, 2012 Essentially it seems if any of these short waves really amplifies, there just is not enough cold air nearby to come anywhere close to compensating for the WAA a strong low would provide. The ticket would be I guess to keep all three of them relatively weak. Like on the GFS, as soon as one of these lows goes to town there's nothing stopping the WAA from running unabated into Canada. You should be breaking out the scotch up there. Best news for ski country in 2 years. We may fuddle around with m/l warmth and b/l issues down this way but this is pure white gold up north. One way or the other this is a great period for ski country from both snowmaking and natural snow. LONG time coming. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted December 12, 2012 Share Posted December 12, 2012 lol... 24-36 hours with an easterly inflow of 55-75kts at H85... can you say orographic precipitation enhancement. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 12, 2012 Share Posted December 12, 2012 Essentially it seems if any of these short waves really amplifies, there just is not enough cold air nearby to come anywhere close to compensating for the WAA a strong low would provide. The ticket would be I guess to keep all three of them relatively weak. Like on the GFS, as soon as one of these lows goes to town there's nothing stopping the WAA from running unabated into Canada. Euro really never gets the 850 0C line much further north than this panel...its because there is a weak block to the north of this system and the high pressure just stays rotting in Quebec. Its the classic Dec '92 look on that front. If you ever loop the Dec '92 storm on the NARR ewall maps, you'll see what I mean. A torching rainstorm isn't out of the possibility though. Its just if we had a high anchored in Quebec...even if it is not as fresh as it was several days earlier...that prevents some warmer solutions from occurring. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted December 12, 2012 Share Posted December 12, 2012 Its totally meaningless at this time range whether the snow line makes it to GC, ORH, PSM or Ray's fanny. christ - i'm just going to sign off for 3 days if i hear another person complain about there not being enough cold air around. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 12, 2012 Share Posted December 12, 2012 If you are looking for the snow line ont he 3rd event...its N ORH county to berkshires...maybe even far NW CT and northward...but it collapses back SE. I'd call in and travel if that took place. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted December 12, 2012 Share Posted December 12, 2012 You should be breaking out the scotch up there. Best news for ski country in 2 years. We may fuddle around with m/l warmth and b/l issues down this way but this is pure white gold up north. One way or the other this is a great period for ski country from both snowmaking and natural snow. LONG time coming. Its completely fantasy land... fun to analyze but its just another la la run. I just like that one of these keeps exploding into a big storm. We get enough 1-3"/2-4" mood snows in the winter... lets roll the dice with a Dec '92 evolution and see what happens, lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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