CT Rain Posted December 12, 2012 Share Posted December 12, 2012 Get me a closed 528 under the BM and a sub 980 in the last two weeks of Dec and I will show you how it snows in marginal airmasses within 20 miles of the coast. Of course, Steve. Thanks for pointing out what we all know. All we can point out is generalities at this time frame. Would I rather be in IJD or God's Country over the next 15 days??????? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted December 12, 2012 Share Posted December 12, 2012 GFS now with 3 runs in a row of epic long range. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted December 12, 2012 Share Posted December 12, 2012 GEFS members are all over the place. Really, all over the place lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Torchey Posted December 12, 2012 Share Posted December 12, 2012 Like the gem out in the field but like weak then boom as discussed this am. Follow gem ens closely for this event should do well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 12, 2012 Share Posted December 12, 2012 Damn meeting during the EURO...any texts would be appreciated. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted December 12, 2012 Author Share Posted December 12, 2012 Of course, Steve. Thanks for pointing out what we all know. All we can point out is generalities at this time frame. Would I rather be in IJD or God's Country over the next 15 days??????? Apparently not everyone knows that. I would rather be in GC year round, actually I would take anywhere over IJD Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKpowdah Posted December 12, 2012 Share Posted December 12, 2012 I don't have time to post, but someone compare H5 from the GFS to the euro. Look how storm 1 on the euro helps suppress the low. It gives confluence to the northeast which is a must. Yeah, I mentioned that yesterday too. There's some crucial interaction between these two shortwaves that requires a specific balance of amplitudes ... can definitely be achieved. Though I think more often than not, the second s/w in a series like this gets emphasized. That's just my take on this set up at the moment. I haven't looked too in depth at anything yet (huge dynamics final tomorrow)) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthShoreWx Posted December 12, 2012 Share Posted December 12, 2012 Nothing to say just wanted to make a post at 12:12 0n 12/12/12. We needed a KU today. It could have been called "The Dozens Storm". Nice to see there are at least some wintry threats before the world ends on the 20th. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 12, 2012 Share Posted December 12, 2012 GEFS are pretty weak with wave2 indicating spread in timing, position, and intensity. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IntenseBlizzard2014 Posted December 12, 2012 Share Posted December 12, 2012 We needed a KU today. It could have been called "The Dozens Storm". Nice to see there are at least some wintry threats before the world ends on the 20th. -_- lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted December 12, 2012 Share Posted December 12, 2012 GEFS are pretty weak with wave2 indicating spread in timing, position, and intensity. Unfortunately ensemble means are sort of worthless on the GEFS right now since the spread is so huge. Not sure which wave to amplify, when to amplify, and where lol. The individual members are pretty hilarious. Many that are "hits" are warm for SNE though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted December 12, 2012 Share Posted December 12, 2012 Of course....they have seemingly had every deformation band sfor the past 2 years Dendrite weather cam will hopefully be up and running. If you rain you can watch my flakes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 12, 2012 Share Posted December 12, 2012 Dendrite weather cam will hopefully be up and running. If you rain you can watch my flakes. Nice! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 12, 2012 Share Posted December 12, 2012 The GGEM is Kevin's elusive 48 hour non-stop snowstorm. What a weenie solution. Yeah I mean we're fine. I just will never understand the fascination with the Gfs. Our worst performing model and folks overdose on Tylenol 7 days out Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 12, 2012 Share Posted December 12, 2012 Damn meeting during the EURO...any texts would be appreciated. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 12, 2012 Share Posted December 12, 2012 Yeah I mean we're fine. I just will never understand the fascination with the Gfs. Our worst performing model and folks overdose on Tylenol 7 days out Is that why you had to take a break................lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
icebreaker5221 Posted December 12, 2012 Share Posted December 12, 2012 There's still quite a bit of uncertainty as far as how much vorticity is in the base of the trough off the coast of CA - the vort max that eventually results in lee cyclogenesis on the lee side of the Rockies and becomes "storm number 1". This trough should finally move completely inland over the next 48 hr, which should allow us to better sample it via the radiosonde network and should result in much better agreement in the guidance. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted December 12, 2012 Author Share Posted December 12, 2012 Flags thrown, weak, warm, progressive, no cold source, suppression.Still waiting for the bombs out too soon occlusion flag to be thrown. LOL, still a fantasy storm but as Ryan so often says not boring. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
icebreaker5221 Posted December 12, 2012 Share Posted December 12, 2012 We needed a KU today. It could have been called "The Dozens Storm". Everyone receives exactly 12"? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Alpha5 Posted December 12, 2012 Share Posted December 12, 2012 The GGEM is Kevin's elusive 48 hour non-stop snowstorm. What a weenie solution. Friggin LOL Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthShoreWx Posted December 12, 2012 Share Posted December 12, 2012 Everyone receives exactly 12"? Enough with the talk. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ace0927 Posted December 12, 2012 Share Posted December 12, 2012 By the way, a little OT distraction: Today is 12-12-12, and that will never happen again. There will never be a ternary combination of equal date numbers ever again going forward, due to a quirk in the numerology of the calendar western civilization uses. 89 years from now it will happen...01/01/01 (2101) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 12, 2012 Share Posted December 12, 2012 Enough with the talk. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted December 12, 2012 Share Posted December 12, 2012 Yeah I mean we're fine. I just will never understand the fascination with the Gfs. Our worst performing model and folks overdose on Tylenol 7 days out Yes the CMC is definitely a more accurate model than the GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted December 12, 2012 Share Posted December 12, 2012 We needed a KU today. It could have been called "The Dozens Storm". Nice to see there are at least some wintry threats before the world ends on the 20th. If it ends i hope we go out with a Day After Tomorrow type snowstorm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 12, 2012 Share Posted December 12, 2012 Unfortunately ensemble means are sort of worthless on the GEFS right now since the spread is so huge. Not sure which wave to amplify, when to amplify, and where lol. The individual members are pretty hilarious. Many that are "hits" are warm for SNE though. Yeah if anything the means tells you that we don't have much, if any, clear ideas on solutions right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted December 12, 2012 Share Posted December 12, 2012 Yeah if anything the means tells you that we don't have much, if any, clear ideas on solutions right now. Yeah agreed. Low confidence forecast. Which for a 5-7 day forecast is quite low. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted December 12, 2012 Share Posted December 12, 2012 Dendrite weather cam will hopefully be up and running. If you rain you can watch my flakes. Awesome! You look to be in a good spot given an average of possible solutions.... anything from Toronto Blizzard to the coast is fair game. But going to be fun to watch the regional wars within New England... be it NNE/CNE/SNE or WNE/ENE etc. Its going to be everyone against everyone. Fun. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted December 12, 2012 Share Posted December 12, 2012 Euro a little quicker with the high this run up north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 12, 2012 Share Posted December 12, 2012 Yes the CMC is definitely a more accurate model than the GFS. They are pretty close to the same at this time range. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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