CT Rain Posted December 12, 2012 Share Posted December 12, 2012 it's more a response to the w canada vortex than a classic greenland block This. First thing I thought when I saw it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted December 12, 2012 Share Posted December 12, 2012 What weird behavior in this GFS run... It builds a couple of pulses of -EPO ridging, severs them off, and then rapidly shoots the height nodes through western Canada as though they were S/W troughs. Eh, this run has problems man - I wouldn't trust anything here beyond 3 days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zeus Posted December 12, 2012 Share Posted December 12, 2012 I don't mind this run of the GFS at all. The "second storm" can rain all it wants so long at it leaves in its wake the pattern currently projected. Papa like. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted December 12, 2012 Share Posted December 12, 2012 I'm not sure I really understand the consternation following the 12z GFS. For over a week now we've highlighted this period as one that didn't look cold (AOA normal temperature wise) with increased threats for wintry precipitation and storminess. While the blocking over the DS area looks nice it's still tough for a large portion of SNE to get a major snowstorm in a meh environment this time of year. Looks like a relatively minor mixed-bag Sunday/Monday which will be nice to watch evolve followed by something bigger during the upcoming week. It's certainly possible SNE misses out on significant snows through Christmas but the pattern is turning more active and I think that's a good thing. Plenty to watch now. If I was in VT/NH/ME I'd be much more excited . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted December 12, 2012 Share Posted December 12, 2012 I don't mind this run of the GFS at all. The "second storm" can rain all it wants so long at it leaves in its wake the pattern currently projected. Papa like. I like the idea of that also but the snow starved weenie in me would selfishly take snow in the "now" over rain that might lead to a snowy pattern in the future. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted December 12, 2012 Share Posted December 12, 2012 Nothing to say just wanted to make a post at 12:12 0n 12/12/12. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 12, 2012 Share Posted December 12, 2012 I'm not sure I really understand the consternation following the 12z GFS. For over a week now we've highlighted this period as one that didn't look cold (AOA normal temperature wise) with increased threats for wintry precipitation and storminess. While the blocking over the DS area looks nice it's still tough for a large portion of SNE to get a major snowstorm in a meh environment this time of year. Looks like a relatively minor mixed-bag Sunday/Monday which will be nice to watch evolve followed by something bigger during the upcoming week. It's certainly possible SNE misses out on significant snows through Christmas but the pattern is turning more active and I think that's a good thing. Plenty to watch now. If I was in VT/NH/ME I'd be much more excited . Catch 22....I'm not sure that I'd consider a conga line of cold rainers running the train on Kris Kringle a good thing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 12, 2012 Share Posted December 12, 2012 Nothing to say just wanted to make a post at 12:12 0n 12/12/12. :weenie: I'd slap ya with 12 of them, but they'd prob ban me for 12 days and 12 minutes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HM Posted December 12, 2012 Share Posted December 12, 2012 I'm not sure I really understand the consternation following the 12z GFS. For over a week now we've highlighted this period as one that didn't look cold (AOA normal temperature wise) with increased threats for wintry precipitation and storminess. While the blocking over the DS area looks nice it's still tough for a large portion of SNE to get a major snowstorm in a meh environment this time of year. Looks like a relatively minor mixed-bag Sunday/Monday which will be nice to watch evolve followed by something bigger during the upcoming week. It's certainly possible SNE misses out on significant snows through Christmas but the pattern is turning more active and I think that's a good thing. Plenty to watch now. If I was in VT/NH/ME I'd be much more excited . This... The Pacific must be factored in here and it is quite possible the flow continues to trend more progressive as we get closer. We've seen this a few times already this year where medium range threats trend more progressive in the NWP. That is a nasty Pacific pattern and will not be kind to our modeling. Interestingly, the solar-geomag parameters today are the lowest I've seen in a long while. But this is something to look at in post-analysis as far as trying to make any pattern connections. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted December 12, 2012 Share Posted December 12, 2012 Catch 22....I'm not sure that I'd consider a conga line of cold rainers running the train on Kris Kringle a good thing. Well even if it's snow to sleet to rain... that's more exciting than most of last winter and what we've seen since like 11/10. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 12, 2012 Share Posted December 12, 2012 Yea, at least there is a reason to post. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weathergun Posted December 12, 2012 Share Posted December 12, 2012 I don't have time to post, but someone compare H5 from the GFS to the euro. Look how storm 1 on the euro helps suppress the low. It gives confluence to the northeast which is a must. Storm #2 is a disaster for many, if storm #1 doesn't become a good 50/50 low. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted December 12, 2012 Share Posted December 12, 2012 This... The Pacific must be factored in here and it is quite possible the flow continues to trend more progressive as we get closer. We've seen this a few times already this year where medium range threats trend more progressive in the NWP. That is a nasty Pacific pattern and will not be kind to our modeling. Interestingly, the solar-geomag parameters today are the lowest I've seen in a long while. But this is something to look at in post-analysis as far as trying to make any pattern connections. The dearth of super cold to our north in Canada is going to hurt our chances in SNE. This is the kind of setup where climo can be very kind of central and northern New England, however. Of course, a well timed and placed shortwave phase with the blocking to the north can work its magic even down to NYC even with not a whole lot of cold air. So certainly no reason to tie a noose. The pattern over the next 10-15 days looks better than virtually anything we had last winter. So that's something lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 12, 2012 Share Posted December 12, 2012 You know how this board rolls. Wait until the rest of the guidance is out. Yeah seriously. GGEM just comes in and it sucks for NNE. Anyone who is trying to spike a football at this range is asking for trouble. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted December 12, 2012 Share Posted December 12, 2012 The GGEM is Kevin's elusive 48 hour non-stop snowstorm. What a weenie solution. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
danstorm Posted December 12, 2012 Share Posted December 12, 2012 I like the idea of that also but the snow starved weenie in me would selfishly take snow in the "now" over rain that might lead to a snowy pattern in the future. I concur... take the snow while the pattern is stormy... or risk suppression once the cold arrives. You really don't want to waste any opportunity for snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted December 12, 2012 Author Share Posted December 12, 2012 Bosch wiper action Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted December 12, 2012 Share Posted December 12, 2012 Yea, at least there is a reason to post. Yeah, watching the full loop of the GFS there is no lack of potential for something to eventually break white not wet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted December 12, 2012 Share Posted December 12, 2012 havent looked yet but that would be awesome a few more days and we should start to figure things out a bit better but it would be nice to lock something like that in The GGEM is Kevin's elusive 48 hour non-stop snowstorm. What a weenie solution. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HM Posted December 12, 2012 Share Posted December 12, 2012 The dearth of super cold to our north in Canada is going to hurt our chances in SNE. This is the kind of setup where climo can be very kind of central and northern New England, however. Of course, a well timed and placed shortwave phase with the blocking to the north can work its magic even down to NYC even with not a whole lot of cold air. So certainly no reason to tie a noose. The pattern over the next 10-15 days looks better than virtually anything we had last winter. So that's something lol. 1. The lack of cold air is a definite problem. Advection processes with winter storms are usually stronger than autumn storms and this could make comparisons to 11/6 (not saying you are doing this) dangerous if you want to play the ageostrophic/dynamics card to get your snow. 2. Agreed that no one should tie a noose except me and points south. 3. We've had patterns this past summer that were better than anything last winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 12, 2012 Share Posted December 12, 2012 Yeah seriously. GGEM just comes in and it sucks for NNE. Anyone who is trying to spike a football at this range is asking for trouble. I think the 12z EURO today is important...we are getting into it's wheelhouse, and if it maintains some sembalance of continuity, then one may be considered wise to hedge that direction. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherMA Posted December 12, 2012 Share Posted December 12, 2012 GGEM looks like some light snow Sunday morning before a decent snowstorm Sunday night-Monday? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted December 12, 2012 Share Posted December 12, 2012 I'm honestly stoked for the pattern through at least 12/25. If nothing pans out IMBY no big deal. Just excited to stay up for the Euro and track things over the next 2 weeks. It's been a while. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 12, 2012 Share Posted December 12, 2012 The GGEM is Kevin's elusive 48 hour non-stop snowstorm. What a weenie solution. The 2nd wave becoming dominant for the first system is what happens on the GGEM while at the the same time the vortex preceeding the event is stronger (i.e. the Quebec High)....it drives the -10C 850 line doesn to like PSM almost tickling Cape Ann. The combo creates overrunning for 18 hours followed by almost a 1/12/11-esque looking coastal...maybe a bit more SE. There are a number of possibilities here. Like you, I think I'm favoring CNE for this first one, but very dangerous to ay much more than that here. First one could still be pretty weak and not a big deal like the GFS wants to show....last nights Euro and its ensembles plus todays GGEM say not so fast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted December 12, 2012 Share Posted December 12, 2012 GFS Rainer for sne and CMC blizzard. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted December 12, 2012 Share Posted December 12, 2012 1. The lack of cold air is a definite problem. Advection processes with winter storms are usually stronger than autumn storms and this could make comparisons to 11/6 (not saying you are doing this) dangerous if you want to play the ageostrophic/dynamics card to get your snow. 2. Agreed that no one should tie a noose except me and points south. 3. We've had patterns this past summer that were better than anything last winter. I also thing the uber-amped up solution next week may be a little tough to get with more modest baroclinicity. If we wanted to get a huge bomb I'd like to see a -20c 850mb isotherm somewhere closer than Fairbanks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted December 12, 2012 Author Share Posted December 12, 2012 Get me a closed 528 under the BM and a sub 980 in the last two weeks of Dec and I will show you how it snows in marginal airmasses within 20 miles of the coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted December 12, 2012 Share Posted December 12, 2012 I'm honestly stoked for the pattern through at least 12/25. If nothing pans out IMBY no big deal. Just excited to stay up for the Euro and track things over the next 2 weeks. It's been a while. To take that attitude I would at least need ski country to get crushed, which it may. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted December 12, 2012 Share Posted December 12, 2012 The 2nd wave becoming dominant for the first system is what happens on the GGEM while at the the same time the vortex preceeding the event is stronger (i.e. the Quebec High)....it drives the -10C 850 line doesn to like PSM almost tickling Cape Ann. The combo creates overrunning for 18 hours followed by almost a 1/12/11-esque looking coastal...maybe a bit more SE. There are a number of possibilities here. Like you, I think I'm favoring CNE for this first one, but very dangerous to ay much more than that here. First one could still be pretty weak and not a big deal like the GFS wants to show....last nights Euro and its ensembles plus todays GGEM say not so fast. Yeah with the very fast and progressive pattern it is likely to put NWP through fits with the bulk of this storm still beyond 96 hours. All we can really say is a lot of potential for someone in New England and the overall setup/climo isn't great for lower elevations especially in SNE. If I was in GC through Dendrite-land I'd be pretty stoked though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 12, 2012 Share Posted December 12, 2012 Yeah with the very fast and progressive pattern it is likely to put NWP through fits with the bulk of this storm still beyond 96 hours. All we can really say is a lot of potential for someone in New England and the overall setup/climo isn't great for lower elevations especially in SNE. If I was in GC through Dendrite-land I'd be pretty stoked though. Of course....they have seemingly had every deformation band sfor the past 2 years Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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