Jump to content
  • Member Statistics

    17,584
    Total Members
    7,904
    Most Online
    LopezElliana
    Newest Member
    LopezElliana
    Joined

A new Baby, a fresh approach


Ginx snewx

Recommended Posts

  • Replies 2.1k
  • Created
  • Last Reply

Well it's going to change many times like we said. No need to turn this thread into the garbage it was this weekend.

Yeah its just another of the 20+ runs we will see before the storm. Heck it could still end up over Detroit or be SE of the Benchmark. I think that's about the cone of possibilities right now, lol.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Hopefully something exciting can happen before you leave... that H7 and H85 lows stay SE of us and with H5 cutting off near NYC, that is historically something that leads to snowy times in BTV's warning area. I'm sure its the same in a lot of GYX's zones too.

Yeah that's climo snow for VT/NH/ME. we'll see how things play out. At least we have threats

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Gfs is nothing like Euro though. Much Warner and not sensing cold drain and blocking. Euro would be huge hit interior. We'll see but for now we toss GFS

Granted they're 2-meter temps, but even the Euro keeps everyone outside of the Berkshires and extreme NW CT AOA 32F.

Splitting hairs is not necessary this far out though. As others have said, the models will fluctuate a lot in the coming days.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Granted they're 2-meter temps, but even the Euro keeps everyone outside of the Berkshires and extreme NW CT AOA 32F.

Splitting hairs is not necessary this far out though. As others have said, the models will fluctuate a lot in the coming days.

And those temperatures were warming on last nights Euro beyond 132. Its not like it matters but verbatim it's impossible to say the 0z Euro was a huge hit for the interior unless you're talking interior CNE/NNE.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Yeah that's climo snow for VT/NH/ME. we'll see how things play out. At least we have threats

I'm just more shocked at how warm that run is so far overall... something to watch but that's very marginal up here. Almost like an elevation snow event.

You can see even has that storm passes (fairly strong at 980mb) there really isn't much cold air advection on the back side. Typically a storm like that in December would be drilling -10C down towards NYC/CT area but instead look how far NW that isotherm is...

Can't even get -10C at H85 in eastern North America, Canada included.... that's some very marginal cold unless there's some fresh arctic cold underneath this level at the sfc that I'm not seeing.

f180.gif

Link to comment
Share on other sites

I'm sure this will fall on a few deaf ears ... but I wouldn't get your self into a tizzy over any given one run of the GFS talking about a D7 out look.

uh, duh? come on

I guess it's all in how you look at things. Objectively or with snow shovel in hand?

This is one run of one model. A reasonable person looks at a storm 5 days away and realizes it's going to change many times and in all likelihood what we've seen to date is only a partial representation of what is to come. Others will grasp the most white solution and find a reason/excuse to not like later data. Wake me up inside of 3 days.

It's been a warm month, it's only cooling off now, we have marginal air at best and now an apparent weaker first system. The NAM and RGEM were further west this run too early. Weaker system, less CAA behind it. More problems for the coastal plain.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Typical windshield wiper action going on. You see Saki despite what you make up, no one here is claiming it snows to the coast, more are saying a big storm is coming more than likely with high QPF. No one is saying where the rain snow line will be. Analogs suggest an upper air pattern not a rain snow line. Look to be doing pretty much as they suggest.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Ooh ooh - that's a great point! I just got goose bumples -

If anyone cares to ... go to NCEP's library and go back to January 25th - 28th, 1978, and watch the Cleveland Super Bomb come together. That is a perfect example of what HM is talking about. Actually, the latter system that year Feb 5-8th did similarly, too.

I had forgotten about that, but ...eh, in my defense I was speaking to 1993 specifically - I don't think you could get 1993 to up under a block as the arcitc tropic constructive interference scheme is intrinsically unavailable to that result.

But, that "dropping of the SPV" stuff he's talking about is the exact same phenomenon that I have referred to regarding "Subsuming" - what happens is, you get a fragment (split component) of cold heights lingered behind in S-central Canada. The Pacific injects a potency into the flow, and that "encourages" said cold fragment to begin moving south.

If you visualize that, uh oh.

Cold fragmented PV component times and essentially absorbs (pure phase) with PJ/STJ and viola - story for grand kids. This type of phasing needs to happen in this order; (PJ with STJ) leads (PJ/STJ with arctic or arctic polar hybrid) = BJ - hahaha

[EDIT: actually, HM, I didn't see your ending sentence re the Cleveland Bomb and lept as siting that in my own rite - so I guess we are on the same page there. ]

So close last winter!! ;)

Link to comment
Share on other sites

All I said was that run was a disaster.

While I am deathly afraid of such a scenario, I have yet to resign myself to it.

Some here make that out to being suicidal for some reason if you mention what the model shows verbatim, I don't think there are a whole bunch of us here that are going to spike the ball based off any GFS run this far out

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Typical windshield wiper action going on. You see Saki despite what you make up, no one here is claiming it snows to the coast, more are saying a big storm is coming more than likely with high QPF. No one is saying where the rain snow line will be. Analogs suggest an upper air pattern not a rain snow line. Look to be doing pretty much as they suggest.

168hours always verifies.

No shi( a storm is coming. The GFS OP pretty much had these dates pinned about a week ago. It's likely that the net snow for much of the CP with these first two is about the same as the last 12 days. JMHO. The euro is marginal at best, we'll see how it looks today. I think the RGEM/NAM point towards some support for the GFS cutting a bit further NW with that first system/slower and later weaker.

Ski areas stand to do very well. Great news for them.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

168hours always verifies.

No shi( a storm is coming. The GFS OP pretty much had these dates pinned about a week ago. It's likely that the net snow for much of the CP with these first two is about the same as the last 12 days. JMHO.

Ski areas stand to do very well. Great news for them.

168hours always verifies. It's likely that the net snow for much of the CP with these first two is about the same as the last 12 days.

Ok but you used analogs in your previous post like its voodoo. Should be a great month from here on out. First rule of an Italian driver whats behind me is not important.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Archived

This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.

Guest
This topic is now closed to further replies.
  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    • No registered users viewing this page.

×
×
  • Create New...