Typhoon Tip Posted December 12, 2012 Share Posted December 12, 2012 This is a cool analogy and I agree that you can think of 1993 as a "rogue wave" in a sense. Even though in the weather world, things like this are modeled well, the comparison works because of its rarity and scope (Tropics-Arctic connection). The only thing I'll say for the bolded point is that if you somehow split the actual polar vortex and it dropped into the PJ/STJ, you could see a triple phaser in a blocking pattern. The closest thing in my mind is the Cleveland Bomb, but this isn't quite the same thing as 93' other than their arbitrary description of "triple phaser." Ooh ooh - that's a great point! I just got goose bumples - If anyone cares to ... go to NCEP's library and go back to January 25th - 28th, 1978, and watch the Cleveland Super Bomb come together. That is a perfect example of what HM is talking about. Actually, the latter system that year Feb 5-8th did similarly, too. I had forgotten about that, but ...eh, in my defense I was speaking to 1993 specifically - I don't think you could get 1993 to up under a block as the arcitc tropic constructive interference scheme is intrinsically unavailable to that result. But, that "dropping of the SPV" stuff he's talking about is the exact same phenomenon that I have referred to regarding "Subsuming" - what happens is, you get a fragment (split component) of cold heights lingered behind in S-central Canada. The Pacific injects a potency into the flow, and that "encourages" said cold fragment to begin moving south. If you visualize that, uh oh. Cold fragmented PV component times and essentially absorbs (pure phase) with PJ/STJ and viola - story for grand kids. This type of phasing needs to happen in this order; (PJ with STJ) leads (PJ/STJ with arctic or arctic polar hybrid) = BJ - hahaha [EDIT: actually, HM, I didn't see your ending sentence re the Cleveland Bomb and lept as siting that in my own rite - so I guess we are on the same page there. ] Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted December 12, 2012 Share Posted December 12, 2012 So how much snow Saturday night? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted December 12, 2012 Share Posted December 12, 2012 By the way, a little OT distraction: Today is 12-12-12, and that will never happen again. There will never be a ternary combination of equal date numbers ever again going forward, due to a quirk in the numerology of the calendar western civilization uses. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HM Posted December 12, 2012 Share Posted December 12, 2012 Ooh ooh - that's a great point! I just got goose bumples - If anyone cares to ... go to NCEP's library and go back to January 25th - 28th, 1978, and watch the Cleveland Super Bomb come together. That is a perfect example of what HM is talking about. Actually, the latter system that year Feb 5-8th did similarly, too. I had forgotten about that, but ...eh, in my defense I was speaking to 1993 specifically - I don't think you could get 1993 to up under a block as the arcitc tropic constructive interference scheme is intrinsically unavailable to that result. But, that "dropping of the SPV" stuff he's talking about is the exact same phenomenon that I have referred to regarding "Subsuming" - what happens is, you get a fragment (split component) of cold heights lingered behind in S-central Canada. The Pacific injects a potency into the flow, and that "encourages" said cold fragment to begin moving south. If you visualize that, uh oh. Cold fragmented PV component times and essentially absorbs (pure phase) with PJ/STJ and viola - story for grand kids. This type of phasing needs to happen in this order; (PJ with STJ) leads (PJ/STJ with arctic or arctic polar hybrid) = BJ - hahaha [EDIT: actually, HM, I didn't see your ending sentence re the Cleveland Bomb and lept as siting that in my own rite - so I guess we are on the same page there. ] Definitely agree there. While both are triple phasers, 1993 is a completely different system and was best described in your first analogy. So we are definitely on the same page and I agree that something like 93' could be hard to get in a very 2009-12 blocking pattern. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 12, 2012 Share Posted December 12, 2012 I'd love if the dynamics kicked things over to snow in storm two, but I'm not counting on it. Pouring rain switching to snow doesn't usually do much unless the surface temp drops substantially below freezing; hovering at 30-32 doesn't quite cut the mustard for getting accumulation going in those situations. As for storm one, we'll see. The 06 GFS looked a little warm here to me (I'm in Brookline these days, by the way, just north of Jamaica Pond... slowly working my way to becoming Jerry's neighbor). I'll confess, I'm excited for the 12z runs today because I can't help but like the overall trend. It just hasn't looked like winter since 2010-2011, but I'm thinking the dry streak breaks pretty soon. GFS was kind of warm, but sometimes the GFS can be too mild this time of year. IOW, we probably could see the exact solution modeled, but it would come in a hair cooler each time. I bet if the euro had the GFS solution, it would be modeled colder on that model. Either way, I probably share your thoughts too...but we'll see how the next few days evolve. If you look at the individual GEFS members here, you can see how we still have a ton of spread. http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~fxg1/ENSPRSNE_6z/ensprsloopmref.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted December 12, 2012 Share Posted December 12, 2012 I'm shocked the 12z GFS is a radical change from the 0z GFS for Sun/Monday. Shocked Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted December 12, 2012 Author Share Posted December 12, 2012 Expect so many caution flags to be thrown you will think you are on the Mass Pike coming in to Boston. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 12, 2012 Share Posted December 12, 2012 GFS is snow to ice. All snow pike north Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted December 12, 2012 Share Posted December 12, 2012 Expect so many caution flags to be thrown you will think you are on the Mass Pike coming in to Boston. Clearly we should lock in 120+ hour solutions and ignore whatever comes in over the next few days in favor of analogs with 1952. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted December 12, 2012 Share Posted December 12, 2012 I'm shocked the 12z GFS is a radical change from the 0z GFS for Sun/Monday. Shocked Meh pretty weak with the first one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 12, 2012 Share Posted December 12, 2012 Can we have a break from the tongue-in-cheek, and discuss what the model actually shows? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherMA Posted December 12, 2012 Share Posted December 12, 2012 Way too early to get excited though. I wish we could fast forward 3 days. At least we have storms and enough cold air to play with. When are finals done for you? Yeah, I know its way too early. I don't finish until Friday 12/21. One final Wednesday, two Thursday, and one Friday. So I should probably be rooting against this TBH. I just can't do it though, lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwinter23 Posted December 12, 2012 Share Posted December 12, 2012 Yes, right now the modeling would suggest that conditions will not be as severe as that storm. There is also several players (waves) been forced underneath the block which is usually not a recipe for a monster cyclone. Of course, if the waves are short enough, I guess that point doesn't matter. Kind of ridiculous how all of a sudden things went back to the old ideas with your idea being the best. A -NAO develops Dec 5-10, retrogrades and forces a storm dec 18-20 period. Then we are cold through XMAS and possibly revert back to a gradient pattern and/or warm pattern late (with a lean towards first option). The long range thoughts closer in range were less accurate than the thoughts further out. This field can be an all-out mind-**** sometimes Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bostonseminole Posted December 12, 2012 Share Posted December 12, 2012 GFS is snow to ice. All snow pike north maybe first few hours.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChrisM Posted December 12, 2012 Share Posted December 12, 2012 storm #1 is torchy for here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted December 12, 2012 Author Share Posted December 12, 2012 Clearly we should lock in 120+ hour solutions and ignore whatever comes in over the next few days in favor of analogs with 1952. Strung out Pike north GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zeus Posted December 12, 2012 Share Posted December 12, 2012 By the way, a little OT distraction: Today is 12-12-12, and that will never happen again. There will never be a ternary combination of equal date numbers ever again going forward, due to a quirk in the numerology of the calendar western civilization uses. Aside, of course, from December 12, 3012... and so on. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted December 12, 2012 Share Posted December 12, 2012 Congrats SNH on that first one... really has the feel of a storm where BED northward through LWM and CON to Portsmouth do the best. Classic cold air drain down the east side of the mountains from ME. First storm QPF for reference... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 12, 2012 Share Posted December 12, 2012 Storm two is coming in sharp at H5. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 12, 2012 Share Posted December 12, 2012 Storm two is coming in sharp at H5. Rain...yay. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 12, 2012 Share Posted December 12, 2012 Rain...yay. You must be a fortune teller..lol. Not there yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 12, 2012 Share Posted December 12, 2012 Storm two is coming in sharp at H5. like Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 12, 2012 Share Posted December 12, 2012 I said before....the way things are going for the Boston area, the first one will be crap, and the second rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted December 12, 2012 Share Posted December 12, 2012 Gonna be close... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 12, 2012 Share Posted December 12, 2012 Ray is back full throttle Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChrisM Posted December 12, 2012 Share Posted December 12, 2012 I said before....the way things are going, the first one will be crap, and the second rain. those kind of go hand in hand. A weaker storm 1 will lead to a warmer storm 2 most likely. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bostonseminole Posted December 12, 2012 Share Posted December 12, 2012 Rain...yay. does not look great @ 141 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 12, 2012 Share Posted December 12, 2012 Low into srn NJ at hr 150. Pretty mild aloft over SNE. It has ridging from NF into ern Canada so while the block is there, the GFS doesn't have any confluence loike we usually see with these blocks near Newfoundland. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bostonseminole Posted December 12, 2012 Share Posted December 12, 2012 Congrats to OSUMET? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChrisM Posted December 12, 2012 Share Posted December 12, 2012 what a disaster run so far lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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