NJwinter23 Posted December 12, 2012 Share Posted December 12, 2012 If you get a polar vortex abandonment with remnant eddies (like what's coming up) in late Jan-early Feb (78) instead...now you're talking. from a basic standpoint of the expected enso/pdo/ao indices, 77-78 was an analog that was weighed in during the fall a bit...the weak el nino aspect of that failed but the PDO was negative during the winter, and I think the DJF AO should end up on the same level (-1.2 for that DJF) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted December 12, 2012 Share Posted December 12, 2012 I don't even want to think about a March 93' like storm in our new climate regime. Of course, I don't even know if that solution is possible with too much blocking actually. But I can dream can't I...March 93 running into a west NAO block? Maybe that's going too far.. One wouldn't think so - no. 1993 "Superstorm" as it's dubbed was tied into a delta(R-wave) event, that much is certain. All that power was resulted for having tapped into the whole system - triple stream phase, by definition cannot happen in blocking because at least one component of the triple is immobile. As a weak analog that occurs to me frequently when I think back to 1993, is the "Rogue Wave" theory. They have actually detected rogue waves via satellite, sometimes tower a 100 feet or more above the surrounding 30 or 40 ft wave structures. The way it works in simple terms, several waves with harmonious frequencies by random chance super-impose and constructively interfere. There are S(o) type formulae that describe the phenomenon mathematically. I don't know if it is even possible, but intuitively, it seems it would be; and that is that the atmosphere is a fluid body, with waves rippling through it. The physics are different in that you don't have thermodynamics of H2O phase change contributing kinematics and so forth - duh - but at the end of the day, you still have up-down oscillatory motions (on all axis for that matter). Perhaps rarified, but 1993 is like the atmospheric version in my mind. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted December 12, 2012 Author Share Posted December 12, 2012 Playing with D+8 and D+ 11 analogy dates ( 20 dates) and rolling forward on http://www.esrl.noaa.gov/psd/data/composites/day/, yielded a strong block that did not break down for a couple of weeks with persistent East Coast Troughiness with multiple deep 5 h solutions. Oh this gonna be fun. Just one snap in time here but if you want to check it out. get the dates from here 8,11 http://www.cpc.ncep....el_guidance.php Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted December 12, 2012 Share Posted December 12, 2012 Playing with D+8 and D+ 11 analogy dates ( 20 dates) and rolling forward on http://www.esrl.noaa...data/composites, yielded a strong block that did not break down for a couple of weeks with persistent East Coast Troughiness with multiple deep 5 h solutions. Oh this gonna be fun. Those composite maps: Not Boring. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted December 12, 2012 Author Share Posted December 12, 2012 Those composite maps: Not Boring. perfect trip planning? Heavy heavy libations and knee deeps. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
danstorm Posted December 12, 2012 Share Posted December 12, 2012 One wouldn't think so - no. 1993 "Superstorm" as it's dubbed was tied into a delta(R-wave) event, that much is certain. All that power was resulted for having tapped into the whole system - triple stream phase, by definition cannot happen in blocking because at least one component of the triple is immobile. As a weak analog that occurs to me frequently when I think back to 1993, is the "Rogue Wave" theory. They have actually detected rogue wave via satellite, sometimes tower a 100 feet or more above the surrounding 30 or 40 ft wave structures. The way it works in simple terms, several waves with harmonious frequencies by random chance super-impose and constructively interfere. There S(o) type formula that describe the phenomenon mathematically. I don't know if it is even possible, but intuitively, it seems it would be; and that is that the atmosphere is a fluid body, with wave rippling through it. The physics are different in that you don't have thermodynamics of H2O phase change contributing kinematics and so forth - duh - but at the end of the day, you still have up-down oscillatory motions (on all axis for that matter). Perhaps rarified, but 1993 is like the atmospheric version in my mind. That's a great analogy and incredibly imaginative visual - one speaker at our weekly PSU sessions spoke of rogue waves... I can't remember the details of the talk, only that 1) you don't want your boat to get struck by them and 2) they require - as you said - perfect timing of seemingly random features coming together for a disastrous result... the ultimate metrics of which are several SDs from any wave characteristics, off the charts outliers that can sink ships... From a practical standpoint, I don't think we have true parallels with the atmosphere since the waves that would combine to produce a triple phaser (i.e., the media's "perfect storm") are much larger, spatially and temporally... and also well modeled in today's day and age... they can't just pop out of nowhere like a rogue wave... but it is a very intriguing conceptual model nonetheless. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted December 12, 2012 Share Posted December 12, 2012 perfect trip planning? Heavy heavy libations and knee deeps. Yeah looks pretty good to be honest. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted December 12, 2012 Author Share Posted December 12, 2012 from a basic standpoint of the expected enso/pdo/ao indices, 77-78 was an analog that was weighed in during the fall a bit...the weak el nino aspect of that failed but the PDO was negative during the winter, and I think the DJF AO should end up on the same level (-1.2 for that DJF) The powerhouses listed on the analogs keep astounding me, 77, 10, 68, hike Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwinter23 Posted December 12, 2012 Share Posted December 12, 2012 Nice... The retreating vortex both allows for the storm potential and blocking but also keeps the Arctic Air away so it's of course bitter sweet. A 92' like storm is certainly possible and you don't need me to tell you that of course. I really don't want to see a storm like that hit NJ. Yeah early dec 92 is a great analog to the upcoming pattern it appears, you were all over that. The storm mid-next week on the euro could be a doozy, but so far I havent seen any guidance show a strong HP system to the northeast of this system to give off the dec 11-12 92 feel...THANKFULLY Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 12, 2012 Share Posted December 12, 2012 perfect trip planning? Heavy heavy libations and knee deeps. As much as you and Ryan love skiing you've never skied together. You should plan a trip up north together. A long weekend or something. Just you 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted December 12, 2012 Author Share Posted December 12, 2012 Yeah looks pretty good to be honest. Yea no doubt, I will be in VT Mass Maine mucho times if this pans out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted December 12, 2012 Author Share Posted December 12, 2012 As much as you and Ryan love skiing you've never skied together. You should plan a trip up north together. A long weekend or something. Just you 2 I think you should come and cook, clean and wash the salt off the vehicles as that seems to be your specialty. Deal? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 12, 2012 Share Posted December 12, 2012 For those in ern MA, that high nosing in is a beautiful way to get nrly drain to the coastal plain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwinter23 Posted December 12, 2012 Share Posted December 12, 2012 Some were mentioning the key differences across Alaska/Bering Sea in the long range euro ensembles versus the gefs..The gfs suite is really building the heights and subsequent -epo pattern, but it all happens post-truncation. the euro ensembles keep the vortex close enough by to not allow as much a poleward extent of ridging as the gefs (though as Will mentioned, there are definite better hints than prior 6-10 day panels). Not favoring the gefs at the moment Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 12, 2012 Share Posted December 12, 2012 Yea no doubt, I will be in VT Mass Maine mucho times if this pans out. Next time you are up at SR we hook up for a couple of pops Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 12, 2012 Share Posted December 12, 2012 As much as you and Ryan love skiing you've never skied together. You should plan a trip up north together. A long weekend or something. Just you 2 Outdoor hot tubs with a laptop on the marble threshold displaying a WV image of hurricane Sandy constantly looping in the background. NB. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 12, 2012 Share Posted December 12, 2012 I think you should come and cook, clean and wash the salt off the vehicles as that seems to be your specialty. Deal? im being serious. Why wouldn't you at least consider it? Throw all the gear in the truck, smoke cigs all the way up and then hit the trees for some knee deep pow. Kind of a fellas weekend away if you will Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HM Posted December 12, 2012 Share Posted December 12, 2012 One wouldn't think so - no. 1993 "Superstorm" as it's dubbed was tied into a delta(R-wave) event, that much is certain. All that power was resulted for having tapped into the whole system - triple stream phase, by definition cannot happen in blocking because at least one component of the triple is immobile. As a weak analog that occurs to me frequently when I think back to 1993, is the "Rogue Wave" theory. They have actually detected rogue wave via satellite, sometimes tower a 100 feet or more above the surrounding 30 or 40 ft wave structures. The way it works in simple terms, several waves with harmonious frequencies by random chance super-impose and constructively interfere. There S(o) type formula that describe the phenomenon mathematically. I don't know if it is even possible, but intuitively, it seems it would be; and that is that the atmosphere is a fluid body, with wave rippling through it. The physics are different in that you don't have thermodynamics of H2O phase change contributing kinematics and so forth - duh - but at the end of the day, you still have up-down oscillatory motions (on all axis for that matter). Perhaps rarified, but 1993 is like the atmospheric version in my mind. This is a cool analogy and I agree that you can think of 1993 as a "rogue wave" in a sense. Even though in the weather world, things like this are modeled well, the comparison works because of its rarity and scope (Tropics-Arctic connection). The only thing I'll say for the bolded point is that if you somehow split the actual polar vortex and it dropped into the PJ/STJ, you could see a triple phaser in a blocking pattern. The closest thing in my mind is the Cleveland Bomb, but this isn't quite the same thing as 93' other than their arbitrary description of "triple phaser." Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 12, 2012 Share Posted December 12, 2012 For those in ern MA, that high nosing in is a beautiful way to get nrly drain to the coastal plain. Yea, I'm all set in the first one...but with my luck, that will devolve into a nuisance deal, at the expense of the Dec 1996 part deux soaker. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SlantStickers Anonymous Posted December 12, 2012 Share Posted December 12, 2012 For those in ern MA, that high nosing in is a beautiful way to get nrly drain to the coastal plain. Me gusta. I'm liking the switch to an active pattern, at least gives the possibility of a white Christmas! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 12, 2012 Share Posted December 12, 2012 im being serious. Why wouldn't you at least consider it? Throw all the gear in the truck, smoke cigs all the way up and then hit the trees for some knee deep pow. Kind of a fellas weekend away if you will Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted December 12, 2012 Share Posted December 12, 2012 Outdoor hot tubs with a laptop on the marble threshold displaying a WV image of hurricane Sandy constantly looping in the background. NB. Hopefully we can get one of those polar warm seclusions to watch on satellite. That would be the most not boring thing ever. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 12, 2012 Share Posted December 12, 2012 Some were mentioning the key differences across Alaska/Bering Sea in the long range euro ensembles versus the gefs..The gfs suite is really building the heights and subsequent -epo pattern, but it all happens post-truncation. the euro ensembles keep the vortex close enough by to not allow as much a poleward extent of ridging as the gefs (though as Will mentioned, there are definite better hints than prior 6-10 day panels). Not favoring the gefs at the moment I would like to get a flush of the airmass though. With the remnant block remaining and more zonal flow, it's a stale kind of aimass. It could be serviceable, but for my local purposes..I wish that ridge can rebuild and send a cold surge south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted December 12, 2012 Share Posted December 12, 2012 Hopefully we can get one of those polar warm seclusions to watch on satellite. That would be the most not boring thing ever. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted December 12, 2012 Share Posted December 12, 2012 I would like to get a flush of the airmass though. With the remnant block remaining and more zonal flow, it's a stale kind of aimass. It could be serviceable, but for my local purposes..I wish that ridge can rebuild and send a cold surge south. yeah that's what i was saying yesterday Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HM Posted December 12, 2012 Share Posted December 12, 2012 Yeah early dec 92 is a great analog to the upcoming pattern it appears, you were all over that. The storm mid-next week on the euro could be a doozy, but so far I havent seen any guidance show a strong HP system to the northeast of this system to give off the dec 11-12 92 feel...THANKFULLY Yes, right now the modeling would suggest that conditions will not be as severe as that storm. There is also several players (waves) been forced underneath the block which is usually not a recipe for a monster cyclone. Of course, if the waves are short enough, I guess that point doesn't matter. Kind of ridiculous how all of a sudden things went back to the old ideas with your idea being the best. A -NAO develops Dec 5-10, retrogrades and forces a storm dec 18-20 period. Then we are cold through XMAS and possibly revert back to a gradient pattern and/or warm pattern late (with a lean towards first option). The long range thoughts closer in range were less accurate than the thoughts further out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zeus Posted December 12, 2012 Share Posted December 12, 2012 I would like to get a flush of the airmass though. With the remnant block remaining and more zonal flow, it's a stale kind of aimass. It could be serviceable, but for my local purposes..I wish that ridge can rebuild and send a cold surge south. Yeah, I think you and I will be on the outside looking in with the next two, given the way things are shaping up for frozen precip. Looks like actual winter cold might be in the cards in the long term though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 12, 2012 Share Posted December 12, 2012 Yeah, I think you and I will be on the outside looking in with the next two, given the way things are shaping up for frozen precip. Looks like actual winter cold might be in the cards in the long term though. Well the first one might be a little more interesting, but as we know..it depends on wind direction. Winds that are more 060 will not really cut it, but I could see nrly ageo drain here, especially just inland..like where you are in Allston/Brighton. However, the euro would be too much marine taint. The second storm is more questionable here for sure, and this hinges on how the first one develops. I could see a rain to snow deal, but specifics at this stage are meaningless. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted December 12, 2012 Share Posted December 12, 2012 That's a great analogy and incredibly imaginative visual - one speaker at our weekly PSU sessions spoke of rogue waves... I can't remember the details of the talk, only that 1) you don't want your boat to get struck by them and 2) they require - as you said - perfect timing of seemingly random features coming together for a disastrous result... the ultimate metrics of which are several SDs from any wave characteristics, off the charts outliers that can sink ships... From a practical standpoint, I don't think we have true parallels with the atmosphere since the waves that would combine to produce a triple phaser (i.e., the media's "perfect storm") are much larger, spatially and temporally... and also well modeled in today's day and age... they can't just pop out of nowhere like a rogue wave... but it is a very intriguing conceptual model nonetheless. Yeah, exactly - ha, I was into with "weak analogy" because of that. Again, the physics for keeping waves energetic in the atmosphere have adiabatic processes that don't happen in the oceans. Rogue in the sense of "out of nowhere", agreed, that's less likely in the atmosphere - but in keeping with the analogy, if we did have as sophisticated wave modeling that could see the rogues before they happen, they might one day show that oceanic versions 1993's happen. pretty cool to think about that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zeus Posted December 12, 2012 Share Posted December 12, 2012 Well the first one might be a little more interesting, but as we know..it depends on wind direction. Winds that are more 060 will not really cut it, but I could see nrly ageo drain here, especially just inland..like where you are in Allston/Brighton. However, the euro would be too much marine taint. The second storm is more questionable here for sure, and this hinges on how the first one develops. I could see a rain to snow deal, but specifics at this stage are meaningless. I'd love if the dynamics kicked things over to snow in storm two, but I'm not counting on it. Pouring rain switching to snow doesn't usually do much unless the surface temp drops substantially below freezing; hovering at 30-32 doesn't quite cut the mustard for getting accumulation going in those situations. As for storm one, we'll see. The 06 GFS looked a little warm here to me (I'm in Brookline these days, by the way, just north of Jamaica Pond... slowly working my way to becoming Jerry's neighbor). I'll confess, I'm excited for the 12z runs today because I can't help but like the overall trend. It just hasn't looked like winter since 2010-2011, but I'm thinking the dry streak breaks pretty soon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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