Jump to content
  • Member Statistics

    17,584
    Total Members
    7,904
    Most Online
    LopezElliana
    Newest Member
    LopezElliana
    Joined

A new Baby, a fresh approach


Ginx snewx

Recommended Posts

  • Replies 2.1k
  • Created
  • Last Reply

I don't even want to think about a March 93' like storm in our new climate regime. Of course, I don't even know if that solution is possible with too much blocking actually. But I can dream can't I...March 93 running into a west NAO block?

Maybe that's going too far..

Talk dirty to us....I dare you...

Link to comment
Share on other sites

ASOUT. Not a lot of cold air but a stormy pattern with some chances.

I'm not really expecting an epic stretch here in CT since the atmosphere is borderline... probably 2 messy storms. I do think central New England could really clean up though. Should be a fun period!

This of course is a good mind set and most logical. My mind set is rain and if I get surprised down here, so be it.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

This of course is a good mind set and most logical. My mind set is rain and if I get surprised down here, so be it.

It's really not a "south of the pike" pattern but I think we could get lucky. I do think at least 3 wintry chances between now and Christmas so while we probably won't be looking at big snow totals in CT it will be fun to watch.

If I was planning a Christmas week ski trip (which I am) I'd be stoked!

Link to comment
Share on other sites

is this what you be referring to?

ecmwfpv400f168.gif

ecmwfpv400f192.gif

It's even prettier at higher potential temperature levels, showing a classic PV displacement with a CW wrapping in on the backside. The 30mb wave 1 predictions are exceptional.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

OMG. I don't even know what to say. Just....wow. Wow at the agreement, timing of these storms, and qpf. Just wow.

Way too early to get excited though. I wish we could fast forward 3 days. At least we have storms and enough cold air to play with. When are finals done for you?
Link to comment
Share on other sites

It's really not a "south of the pike" pattern but I think we could get lucky. I do think at least 3 wintry chances between now and Christmas so while we probably won't be looking at big snow totals in CT it will be fun to watch.

If I was planning a Christmas week ski trip (which I am) I'd be stoked!

Nice...

The retreating vortex both allows for the storm potential and blocking but also keeps the Arctic Air away so it's of course bitter sweet. A 92' like storm is certainly possible and you don't need me to tell you that of course. I really don't want to see a storm like that hit NJ.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Nice...

The retreating vortex both allows for the storm potential and blocking but also keeps the Arctic Air away so it's of course bitter sweet. A 92' like storm is certainly possible and you don't need me to tell you that of course. I really don't want to see a storm like that hit NJ.

Yeah can see a storm closing off and getting stuck off the Mid Atlantic owing to that big blocking downstream.

This is probably a wet kind of snow even up north which should put down a nice base for the ski areas up north.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Yeah can see a storm closing off and getting stuck off the Mid Atlantic owing to that big blocking downstream.

This is probably a wet kind of snow even up north which should put down a nice base for the ski areas up north.

If you get a polar vortex abandonment with remnant eddies (like what's coming up) in late Jan-early Feb (78) instead...now you're talking.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

It's really not a "south of the pike" pattern but I think we could get lucky. I do think at least 3 wintry chances between now and Christmas so while we probably won't be looking at big snow totals in CT it will be fun to watch.

If I was planning a Christmas week ski trip (which I am) I'd be stoked!

AWK

Link to comment
Share on other sites

One key aspect for me right now is that the Euro ensembles and GFS ensembles both agree on the cold shot magnitude increasing to our north. They both have trended stronger with the high and are similar now....this is preceeding the actual event by about 24 hours and is 84 hours out in an absolute sense, but it is a very important part of that first event. If the cold high doesn't advect that chilly, bone dry arctic air boundary far enough south, then our table is not set for a more wintry/snowy solution for storm number 1 in a lot of SNE.

There are still a lot of questions as to the exact evolution of the Sunday event...the Euro holds back most of the energy and focuses most of the precip for Monday....but it does have light mood snow Sunday afternoon and evening. 06z GFS has a quick wave on Sunday that is mostly done by early monday morning. Its a touch warmer too. All those details are not going to be settled for a while longer. We can still get screwed if the primary out west shoots further N....however, that will be made more difficult by the same mechanisms that are causing this high to the north come in further south and more potent. The two are not totally mutually exclusive.

I sort of buy the GFS solution for wave 1, but maybe slightly stronger. I gotta feeling it won't be a sun 988 low like the euro op has.

The one thing that also may play a roll in the speed and evolution of wave 2, is the flow across the CONUS. It is rather progressive. You do have ridging to the east and west of the big ULL gyre, but without the block and perhaps the flaster flow, it would pull a 12/29/00. Still could I suppose. The euro op does wrap the storm up near the Cape, but you can see what I mean as the GFS dumbells the low more ENE instead of the classic tuck north we probably would normally see with such a strong s/w rounding the base of the trough.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Archived

This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.

Guest
This topic is now closed to further replies.
  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    • No registered users viewing this page.

×
×
  • Create New...