CT Rain Posted December 12, 2012 Share Posted December 12, 2012 ASOUT. Not a lot of cold air but a stormy pattern with some chances. I'm not really expecting an epic stretch here in CT since the atmosphere is borderline... probably 2 messy storms. I do think central New England could really clean up though. Should be a fun period! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 12, 2012 Share Posted December 12, 2012 I don't even want to think about a March 93' like storm in our new climate regime. Of course, I don't even know if that solution is possible with too much blocking actually. But I can dream can't I...March 93 running into a west NAO block? Maybe that's going too far.. Talk dirty to us....I dare you... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 12, 2012 Share Posted December 12, 2012 Leave it alone ?? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HM Posted December 12, 2012 Share Posted December 12, 2012 ASOUT. Not a lot of cold air but a stormy pattern with some chances. I'm not really expecting an epic stretch here in CT since the atmosphere is borderline... probably 2 messy storms. I do think central New England could really clean up though. Should be a fun period! This of course is a good mind set and most logical. My mind set is rain and if I get surprised down here, so be it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwinter23 Posted December 12, 2012 Share Posted December 12, 2012 92-93 was close to the number 1 post-1979 strat analog and this storm is reacting to the stratosphere. I think that is a pretty cool thing. Let's hope we see that again in late winter too! is this what you be referring to? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted December 12, 2012 Share Posted December 12, 2012 This of course is a good mind set and most logical. My mind set is rain and if I get surprised down here, so be it. It's really not a "south of the pike" pattern but I think we could get lucky. I do think at least 3 wintry chances between now and Christmas so while we probably won't be looking at big snow totals in CT it will be fun to watch. If I was planning a Christmas week ski trip (which I am) I'd be stoked! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HM Posted December 12, 2012 Share Posted December 12, 2012 is this what you be referring to? It's even prettier at higher potential temperature levels, showing a classic PV displacement with a CW wrapping in on the backside. The 30mb wave 1 predictions are exceptional. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted December 12, 2012 Share Posted December 12, 2012 OMG. I don't even know what to say. Just....wow. Wow at the agreement, timing of these storms, and qpf. Just wow. Way too early to get excited though. I wish we could fast forward 3 days. At least we have storms and enough cold air to play with. When are finals done for you? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HM Posted December 12, 2012 Share Posted December 12, 2012 It's really not a "south of the pike" pattern but I think we could get lucky. I do think at least 3 wintry chances between now and Christmas so while we probably won't be looking at big snow totals in CT it will be fun to watch. If I was planning a Christmas week ski trip (which I am) I'd be stoked! Nice... The retreating vortex both allows for the storm potential and blocking but also keeps the Arctic Air away so it's of course bitter sweet. A 92' like storm is certainly possible and you don't need me to tell you that of course. I really don't want to see a storm like that hit NJ. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted December 12, 2012 Share Posted December 12, 2012 Nice... The retreating vortex both allows for the storm potential and blocking but also keeps the Arctic Air away so it's of course bitter sweet. A 92' like storm is certainly possible and you don't need me to tell you that of course. I really don't want to see a storm like that hit NJ. Yeah can see a storm closing off and getting stuck off the Mid Atlantic owing to that big blocking downstream. This is probably a wet kind of snow even up north which should put down a nice base for the ski areas up north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HM Posted December 12, 2012 Share Posted December 12, 2012 Yeah can see a storm closing off and getting stuck off the Mid Atlantic owing to that big blocking downstream. This is probably a wet kind of snow even up north which should put down a nice base for the ski areas up north. If you get a polar vortex abandonment with remnant eddies (like what's coming up) in late Jan-early Feb (78) instead...now you're talking. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 12, 2012 Share Posted December 12, 2012 Baby Bryce JuJu. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted December 12, 2012 Share Posted December 12, 2012 Baby Bryce JuJu. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 12, 2012 Share Posted December 12, 2012 I could use this breaking right, right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 12, 2012 Share Posted December 12, 2012 I could use this breaking right, right now. Rotating schedule with Mom? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FEFD17 Posted December 12, 2012 Share Posted December 12, 2012 Baby Bryce JuJu. +1 thumbs up dad!!!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted December 12, 2012 Share Posted December 12, 2012 I could use this breaking right, right now. If these snow chances don't pan out Kevin will be crying more than Bryce is lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 12, 2012 Share Posted December 12, 2012 I just think if we can lay down a nice 3-5 inch snow and then ice on top with more mashed potatoes from the coastal it's going to make a lot of folks happy. Also should have lasting power with all the ice and water content. None of that powdery stuff that vanishes faster than Rays undies on prom nite Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted December 12, 2012 Author Share Posted December 12, 2012 It's really not a "south of the pike" pattern but I think we could get lucky. I do think at least 3 wintry chances between now and Christmas so while we probably won't be looking at big snow totals in CT it will be fun to watch. If I was planning a Christmas week ski trip (which I am) I'd be stoked! AWK Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 12, 2012 Share Posted December 12, 2012 I could use this breaking right, right now. Are you breast feeding or is Allison? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 12, 2012 Share Posted December 12, 2012 Are you breast feeding or is Allison? lol, She is pumping and he is feeding Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted December 12, 2012 Share Posted December 12, 2012 Way too early to get excited though. I wish we could fast forward 3 days. At least we have storms and enough cold air to play with. When are finals done for you? At least 24/48 hours too early to get excited. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 12, 2012 Share Posted December 12, 2012 One key aspect for me right now is that the Euro ensembles and GFS ensembles both agree on the cold shot magnitude increasing to our north. They both have trended stronger with the high and are similar now....this is preceeding the actual event by about 24 hours and is 84 hours out in an absolute sense, but it is a very important part of that first event. If the cold high doesn't advect that chilly, bone dry arctic air boundary far enough south, then our table is not set for a more wintry/snowy solution for storm number 1 in a lot of SNE. There are still a lot of questions as to the exact evolution of the Sunday event...the Euro holds back most of the energy and focuses most of the precip for Monday....but it does have light mood snow Sunday afternoon and evening. 06z GFS has a quick wave on Sunday that is mostly done by early monday morning. Its a touch warmer too. All those details are not going to be settled for a while longer. We can still get screwed if the primary out west shoots further N....however, that will be made more difficult by the same mechanisms that are causing this high to the north come in further south and more potent. The two are not totally mutually exclusive. I sort of buy the GFS solution for wave 1, but maybe slightly stronger. I gotta feeling it won't be a sun 988 low like the euro op has. The one thing that also may play a roll in the speed and evolution of wave 2, is the flow across the CONUS. It is rather progressive. You do have ridging to the east and west of the big ULL gyre, but without the block and perhaps the flaster flow, it would pull a 12/29/00. Still could I suppose. The euro op does wrap the storm up near the Cape, but you can see what I mean as the GFS dumbells the low more ENE instead of the classic tuck north we probably would normally see with such a strong s/w rounding the base of the trough. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 12, 2012 Share Posted December 12, 2012 lol, She is pumping and he is feeding He did move his head towards my chest. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 12, 2012 Share Posted December 12, 2012 He did move his head towards my chest. lol, As long as he is not colic, You should make out fine, You seem to be able to still function on less sleep so that's a plus Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zeus Posted December 12, 2012 Share Posted December 12, 2012 Good morning you princes of Maine, you kings of New England. I'm hanging back in Boston for Christmas this year for the first time ever (instead of heading down to NJ). The way things are looking, I may be tempted to take a trip up into Vermont. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted December 12, 2012 Share Posted December 12, 2012 LOL... Just wondering cause he used to post here a lot. I think hes always been a mod there Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted December 12, 2012 Share Posted December 12, 2012 Are you breast feeding or is Allison? LOL Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted December 12, 2012 Share Posted December 12, 2012 the new raleighwx images are huge. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SlantStickers Anonymous Posted December 12, 2012 Share Posted December 12, 2012 Figures, I commit myself to writing final papers today and things trend awesome overnight, I'm sure this won't effect my concentration at all! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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