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A new Baby, a fresh approach


Ginx snewx

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I haven't looked at anything because I've been busy with work....but my gut says the cp is screwed in the big one.....the wild card is my area here in interior ne MA. Climo dictates that this area often acts as an appendage from the interior, elevated areas...ie, the only area on the cp of sne to cash in (see Dec 1992).

Time of season worries me...I'd feel better in March.

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Yeah one at a time. System 1 probably won't be all that strong, but advisory stuff anyways, maybe low end warning north of MA.NH border where mid level processes and erly LLJ pull back moisture. Even CF stuff maybe just near or NW of BOS depending on track. It's early, just preliminary thinking.

System 2 could be a large QPF event, and maybe heavy elevation snows, but that is entirely track dependent. Notice how the low on some models like the 06z GFS doesn't up the coast when normally that would probably pull a 12/29/00. That is the block working it's magic. On guidance, this track would smoke much of SNE, but the cold just isn't really there unless this goes past the BM and bombs. It's early, but I feel elevation storm here, but could extend into interior NE MA. The GFS is very warm and pulls a March 2010 for Will during part of this, before turning into a paste bomb for a large part of the area. I'm not sure I buy those mid level temps, but it has the right idea for somewhat of a stale, but workable airmass I think. A track like the 06z with euro temps would be amazing.

Im not saying they are the same situation, but I always think back to late jan 2011 with how warm that storm was modelled to be...even when the track shifted to a perfect coastal path, models were still showing ample warmth in the lower levels for the coastal plain. That of course ended up trending colder in the short term. Key differences such as mid-Dec versus late Jan apply, but great dynamics with the perfect track got it done then. If the euro is right, interior would be creamed!

:weenie: post of the day

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. Refresh my memory. I was just turning six.

We got whacked to the tune of about 8" in the first wave...then the follow up wave was all rain for you, while I got about 2".....was relieved to see that I was snow, then contemplated suicide as I flipped to rain, watched the infamous Cantore's infamous "thundersnow clip", and the rest is history.

ORH had about 2' of cement when all was said and done...I had about 4", and you had grass.

The end.

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Man oh man at that Euro run for here. I hate letting myself get even a little excited this far out. 2.5" QPF, all snow, from the 2 systems. EC ens mean has about 2" from both....not that QPF is worth worrying about outside of 48hrs, but that is pretty damn high for an ens mean. 6z GFS is solid too.

OMG. I don't even know what to say. Just....wow. Wow at the agreement, timing of these storms, and qpf. Just wow.

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92' analog showing up again? ;)

NJ to see rain and painfully watch the snow miss?

Man, I'm on pins and needles....my area could go either way in that big kahuna.

Dec '92 do...of Dec '96 die......could go either way.

Interior ne MA is always a wild card.....kind of a transitione zone between the interior and coast...

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Man, I'm on pins and needles....my area could go either way in that big kahuna.

Dec '92 do...of Dec '96 die......could go either way.

Interior ne MA is always a wild card.....kind of a transitione zone between the interior and coast...

92-93 was close to the number 1 post-1979 strat analog and this storm is reacting to the stratosphere. I think that is a pretty cool thing. Let's hope we see that again in late winter too!

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You're on the bomb train this season....

I don't even want to think about a March 93' like storm in our new climate regime. Of course, I don't even know if that solution is possible with too much blocking actually. But I can dream can't I...March 93 running into a west NAO block?

Maybe that's going too far..

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