Tropopause_Fold Posted December 12, 2012 Share Posted December 12, 2012 pretty impressive overnight runs...albeit rather strange surprised to see how amped both lows are on the euro...strange to see 988 then 980 like 24 hours apart from each other. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted December 12, 2012 Share Posted December 12, 2012 No one is spiking the ball, Joe... Could still be a meh rain event here. (doubt it) Next week who knows Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
scoob40 Posted December 12, 2012 Share Posted December 12, 2012 All hail the AO A kid in a candy store. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Torchey Posted December 12, 2012 Share Posted December 12, 2012 These exceptionally short wavelengths lately are going to play havoc with modeling and forecasters. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted December 12, 2012 Author Share Posted December 12, 2012 The GGEM actually looks like Dec '96 for wave 1....the first wave in Dec '96 on 12/6/96. Maybe just a smidge colder. The 5H pattern going south of SNE is eerily similar. Its kind of different though than other guidance in that sense. For reference for those kiddies who were still in first grade. nice 6+ swath Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted December 12, 2012 Share Posted December 12, 2012 I will say i am very disappointed in some of the staff for not responding to Pm's.....That's all I will say about what happened. I hope Joba drills Youk with fastballs in batting practice like the old days. Now..let's snow..and snow heavy That's my one and only complaint about this site. When they ask for donations we respond. They in turn should respond to messages or ask for more volunteers to help. Jmho Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 12, 2012 Share Posted December 12, 2012 Well will be interesting over next few days to see if some of these model solutions hold serve or we continue to see different outcomes from run to run, The fact that the ensembles have been pretty steady is encouraging Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 12, 2012 Share Posted December 12, 2012 pretty impressive overnight runs...albeit rather strange surprised to see how amped both lows are on the euro...strange to see 988 then 980 like 24 hours apart from each other. Yeah not very common...Dec '96 had the two back to back amped systems just 18 hours apart...they weren't 980mb though. Think the first one was 996mb and second one was about 990mb. Then on Dec 19-21, 2008, we saw the two pretty decent systems. Though that first one was a pretty weak sfc low. Second one was a sneaky potent 985mb low. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted December 12, 2012 Share Posted December 12, 2012 I will be "rooting" for more of a gfs evolution over what the euro is doing Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted December 12, 2012 Share Posted December 12, 2012 pretty impressive overnight runs...albeit rather strange surprised to see how amped both lows are on the euro...strange to see 988 then 980 like 24 hours apart from each other. Yeah, dont see that too often Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Torchey Posted December 12, 2012 Share Posted December 12, 2012 This might be a classic case of event 1 becoming weak and strung out, light snows and mix into sne with the second s/w becoming the main player, then the question becomes has the baroclinicity been pushed far enough east for a coastal/wintry solution or is it an inland runner. Fascinating 5-7 days of model watching ahead. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted December 12, 2012 Share Posted December 12, 2012 Yeah not very common...Dec '96 had the two back to back amped systems just 18 hours apart...they weren't 980mb though. Think the first one was 996mb and second one was about 990mb. Then on Dec 19-21, 2008, we saw the two pretty decent systems. Though that first one was a pretty weak sfc low. Second one was a sneaky potent 985mb low. The way the euro evolved...I actually thought it was going to just make one powerhouse system - I didn't expect to see that follow up one be so strong. For my own enjoyment I'd much rather a crazy 970ish low like gfs has Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted December 12, 2012 Author Share Posted December 12, 2012 Yeah not very common...Dec '96 had the two back to back amped systems just 18 hours apart...they weren't 980mb though. Think the first one was 996mb and second one was about 990mb. Then on Dec 19-21, 2008, we saw the two pretty decent systems. Though that first one was a pretty weak sfc low. Second one was a sneaky potent 985mb low. Wait didn't we have a back to back bomb in 11. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted December 12, 2012 Share Posted December 12, 2012 The GGEM actually looks like Dec '96 for wave 1....the first wave in Dec '96 on 12/6/96. Maybe just a smidge colder. The 5H pattern going south of SNE is eerily similar. Its kind of different though than other guidance in that sense. Oh how I remember that 12/6/96 storm. I was in Orlando and my wife calls and leaves a message..."it's f"cking snowing to beat the band!" Part of a litany of missed storms that thankfully. Has seemed to end...in part for my refusal to go anywhere in winter....lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
toronto blizzard Posted December 12, 2012 Share Posted December 12, 2012 How's QPF for YYZ on the euro ens for next weeks storm? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 12, 2012 Share Posted December 12, 2012 This might be a classic case of event 1 becoming weak and strung out, light snows and mix into sne with the second s/w becoming the main player, then the question becomes has the baroclinicity been pushed far enough east for a coastal/wintry solution or is it an inland runner. Fascinating 5-7 days of model watching ahead. There are actually 3 main shortwavesin the flow...only 2 of them ever produce a storm. But the order in which that happens changes some of the outcomes. There will definitely be a "first" system...its just whether it happens more on Sunday/Sunday night rather than Monday. Here is the Euro at 96 hours....you can see 3 distinct waves I have highlighted. The first one gets overtaken by wave #2 in the southwest US and that becomes the dominant one. That is why the Euro has most of the event on Monday. Wave #3 near the PAC NW is what produces the big system after the first one. On the GFS, wave #1 is the dominant wave for the first event, and it lags wave #2 much further west than the Euro, and wave #2 on the GFS actually gets overtaken by wave #3 as the dominant wave. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted December 12, 2012 Share Posted December 12, 2012 The fine gentleman from Hubbardston created a thread for this weekends system. Juju Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NaoPos Posted December 12, 2012 Share Posted December 12, 2012 How's QPF for YYZ on the euro ens for next weeks storm? Combined, .75-1" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted December 12, 2012 Share Posted December 12, 2012 Wait didn't we have a back to back bomb in 11. I think so. I recall box weighing in on how to measure (storm one vs. Storm two). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted December 12, 2012 Share Posted December 12, 2012 Yeah not very common...Dec '96 had the two back to back amped systems just 18 hours apart...they weren't 980mb though. Think the first one was 996mb and second one was about 990mb. Then on Dec 19-21, 2008, we saw the two pretty decent systems. Though that first one was a pretty weak sfc low. Second one was a sneaky potent 985mb low. That was a great week out this way. I think I got about 15" between the two storms. Wasn't the first system a swfe? I remeber it coming in like a wall of white and the initial snow forecasts had to be doubled out here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 12, 2012 Share Posted December 12, 2012 Wait didn't we have a back to back bomb in 11. I do not recall back to back "big" systems. The Feb 1-2, 2011 system was a 2 parter...but it was all kind of one big overrunning event rather than two distinct coastal systems with their own CCB/dynamics. We had the 2 part inverted trough/norlun stuff on Jan 6-8 I believe it was. But again, same deal as before...not two distinct larger systems. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
toronto blizzard Posted December 12, 2012 Share Posted December 12, 2012 Combined, .75-1" Thanks! So that would be with the weekend system as well? What about just the system next week how much QPF for that one? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 12, 2012 Share Posted December 12, 2012 Thanks! So that would be with the weekend system as well? What about just the system next week how much QPF for that one? It doesn't matter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Torchey Posted December 12, 2012 Share Posted December 12, 2012 One of my favorite two part systems was NYE a few years back, maybe 09? Two light snow events, calm winds nice dendrites......made for a perfect night in the back yard on NYE. Some of my favorite events were smaller ones, but longer duration and hardly any wind just watching dendrites cascade into the spotlight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted December 12, 2012 Share Posted December 12, 2012 One of my favorite two part systems was NYE a few years back, maybe 09? Two light snow events, calm winds nice dendrites......made for a perfect night in the back yard on NYE. Some of my favorite events were smaller ones, but longer duration and hardly any wind just watching dendrites cascade into the spotlight. I think 07/08 was the year We got 5" on the 31st and 4" on the 1st Perfect snow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted December 12, 2012 Share Posted December 12, 2012 Got to 23F this morning (6:30ish) Nice, early winter morning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 12, 2012 Share Posted December 12, 2012 My big storm slump needs to end....if I end up raining, while Dendrite and and Hunchback see 20" again, I quit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 12, 2012 Share Posted December 12, 2012 That 2nd storm looks a lot like Dec 96 bomb and not too far off Dec92 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 12, 2012 Share Posted December 12, 2012 That 2nd storm looks a lot like Dec 96 bomb and not too far off Dec92 I'm scared to death of a Dec '96 redux. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted December 12, 2012 Share Posted December 12, 2012 That 2nd storm looks a lot like Dec 96 bomb and not too far off Dec92 Lol... we have 300 tickets for a Christmas Carol in ORH for Thurs... oops! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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