Damage In Tolland Posted December 12, 2012 Share Posted December 12, 2012 Good morning my fellow weenies... It's interesting to read the board for a couple days and not post..While tempted at times...I held my fingers in check You guys do realize it's snowing after midnight Saturday night ? Sunday snows much of the day...then turns into hopefully a damaging icestorm south of the pike..tearing down massive limbs, leaving tens and hundreds of thousands without power..as we await a massive Dec 1992 like scenario with the coastal bomb on Tuesday/Wednesday. i envision many home w/o power for Christmas, and many interior. folks unable to get to work or school Winter is here and i am the F back Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 12, 2012 Share Posted December 12, 2012 Euro op is chilly for wave 1. Classic latitude cold gradient. Temps at BOS just off the deck are chilly. Keeps the sfc back here below freezing the whole event. Classic snow to sleet/ZR for the interior....but it won't shock me if even BOS ends up as mostly snow in the first event if that high nosing in trends better as we get closer....something that we very often see as we get closer. The models will under estimate those Quebec cold highs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted December 12, 2012 Share Posted December 12, 2012 Good morning my fellow weenies... It's interesting to read the board for a couple days and not post..While tempted at times...I held my fingers in check You guys do realize it's snowing after midnight Saturday night ? Sunday snows much of the day...then turns into hopefully a damaging icestorm south of the pike..tearing down massive limbs, leaving tens and hundreds of thousands without power..as we await a massive Dec 1992 like scenario with the coastal bomb on Tuesday/Wednesday. i envision many home w/o power for Christmas, and many interior. folks unable to get to work or school Winter is here and i am the F back I'm happy! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 12, 2012 Share Posted December 12, 2012 I will say i am very disappointed in some of the staff for not responding to Pm's.....That's all I will say about what happened. I hope Joba drills Youk with fastballs in batting practice like the old days. Now..let's snow..and snow heavy Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Modfan Posted December 12, 2012 Share Posted December 12, 2012 Good morning my fellow weenies... It's interesting to read the board for a couple days and not post..While tempted at times...I held my fingers in check You guys do realize it's snowing after midnight Saturday night ? Sunday snows much of the day...then turns into hopefully a damaging icestorm south of the pike..tearing down massive limbs, leaving tens and hundreds of thousands without power..as we await a massive Dec 1992 like scenario with the coastal bomb on Tuesday/Wednesday. i envision many home w/o power for Christmas, and many interior. folks unable to get to work or school Winter is here and i am the F back Nice, made me laugh, welcome back! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted December 12, 2012 Share Posted December 12, 2012 BOX is playing it snowy for round 1 with a very non-committal forecast for later in the week with rain/snow for some, mostly rain for others. Seems a fair way to go at this juncture for round 2. But, I'm still not convinced that the first round becomes more of a mixed bag than they currently have progged. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted December 12, 2012 Share Posted December 12, 2012 Good morning my fellow weenies... It's interesting to read the board for a couple days and not post..While tempted at times...I held my fingers in check You guys do realize it's snowing after midnight Saturday night ? Sunday snows much of the day...then turns into hopefully a damaging icestorm south of the pike..tearing down massive limbs, leaving tens and hundreds of thousands without power..as we await a massive Dec 1992 like scenario with the coastal bomb on Tuesday/Wednesday. i envision many home w/o power for Christmas, and many interior. folks unable to get to work or school Winter is here and i am the F back Who are you again???? Glad to have you back. It's time to let winter rock. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 12, 2012 Share Posted December 12, 2012 Love how Euro locks the interior below freezing for the entire event.. I'll be happy with 3-5 of snow..then ice to lock in pack and then pile on 1-2 feet of snow with the coastal Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 12, 2012 Share Posted December 12, 2012 One key aspect for me right now is that the Euro ensembles and GFS ensembles both agree on the cold shot magnitude increasing to our north. They both have trended stronger with the high and are similar now....this is preceeding the actual event by about 24 hours and is 84 hours out in an absolute sense, but it is a very important part of that first event. If the cold high doesn't advect that chilly, bone dry arctic air boundary far enough south, then our table is not set for a more wintry/snowy solution for storm number 1 in a lot of SNE. There are still a lot of questions as to the exact evolution of the Sunday event...the Euro holds back most of the energy and focuses most of the precip for Monday....but it does have light mood snow Sunday afternoon and evening. 06z GFS has a quick wave on Sunday that is mostly done by early monday morning. Its a touch warmer too. All those details are not going to be settled for a while longer. We can still get screwed if the primary out west shoots further N....however, that will be made more difficult by the same mechanisms that are causing this high to the north come in further south and more potent. The two are not totally mutually exclusive. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahk_webstah Posted December 12, 2012 Share Posted December 12, 2012 Good morning my fellow weenies... It's interesting to read the board for a couple days and not post..While tempted at times...I held my fingers in check You guys do realize it's snowing after midnight Saturday night ? Sunday snows much of the day...then turns into hopefully a damaging icestorm south of the pike..tearing down massive limbs, leaving tens and hundreds of thousands without power..as we await a massive Dec 1992 like scenario with the coastal bomb on Tuesday/Wednesday. i envision many home w/o power for Christmas, and many interior. folks unable to get to work or school Winter is here and i am the F back PTL Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted December 12, 2012 Share Posted December 12, 2012 One key aspect for me right now is that the Euro ensembles and GFS ensembles both agree on the cold shot magnitude increasing to our north. They both have trended stronger with the high and are similar now....this is preceeding the actual event by about 24 hours and is 84 hours out in an absolute sense, but it is a very important part of that first event. If the cold high doesn't advect that chilly, bone dry arctic air boundary far enough south, then our table is not set for a more wintry/snowy solution for storm number 1 in a lot of SNE. There are still a lot of questions as to the exact evolution of the Sunday event...the Euro holds back most of the energy and focuses most of the precip for Monday....but it does have light mood snow Sunday afternoon and evening. 06z GFS has a quick wave on Sunday that is mostly done by early monday morning. Its a touch warmer too. All those details are not going to be settled for a while longer. We can still get screwed if the primary out west shoots further N....however, that will be made more difficult by the same mechanisms that are causing this high to the north come in further south and more potent. The two are not totally mutually exclusive. Thanks for that info, Will. Always good for us non-mets to get the pros take. Of course,then there's option 3 that hasn't reared it's head yet where the cold/dry pushes so far south that it snows in CT/NY/NJ and GC has 6" of virga. Where have we seen that before? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted December 12, 2012 Share Posted December 12, 2012 Blizz got the bus fixed. Those parts took a year to get in A whitening to a few inches Sun/Mon, maybe more Then we wait the Chris storm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 12, 2012 Share Posted December 12, 2012 GGEM looks pretty nice for Monday for a lot of areas. The GGEM actually looks like Dec '96 for wave 1....the first wave in Dec '96 on 12/6/96. Maybe just a smidge colder. The 5H pattern going south of SNE is eerily similar. Its kind of different though than other guidance in that sense. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahk_webstah Posted December 12, 2012 Share Posted December 12, 2012 We need the Rev back. The power of prayer is amazing! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted December 12, 2012 Share Posted December 12, 2012 Mike, I worry about #3 as well Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 12, 2012 Share Posted December 12, 2012 Thanks for that info, Will. Always good for us non-mets to get the pros take. Of course,then there's option 3 that hasn't reared it's head yet where the cold/dry pushes so far south that it snows in CT/NY/NJ and GC has 6" of virga. Where have we seen that before? I think that possibility is remote. We don't see that in this 5H pattern...of course the remote possibility is that the 5H pattern 100 hours out is progged to be so wrong, that we see it anyway....but aside from that, the much much larger issue is keeping the WAA held at bay. An awful lot of possibilities for this system, but a completel whiff to the south is the least likely of them. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted December 12, 2012 Share Posted December 12, 2012 Who wants to start two threads for two events? Good juju people with good titles please Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted December 12, 2012 Share Posted December 12, 2012 Dor those with access, do the euro ensembles deliver EPO in the day 11-15 period? It seems to be heading there with the pv north getting a more "pinched" appearance by d10 vs earlier. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 12, 2012 Share Posted December 12, 2012 I think it's snowing in CT at the least by dawn Sunday..Euro is likely too slow with evolution. WAA precip always comes in early Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 12, 2012 Share Posted December 12, 2012 Dor those with access, do the euro ensembles deliver EPO in the day 11-15 period? It seems to be heading there with the pv north getting a more "pinched" appearance by d10 vs earlier. Its pretty neutral. There is some ridging more int he WPO region...EPO region just to the east has some ebbs and flows in the 11-15 panels. But the heights in general are much higher there by D14 vs D10. PAC seems to be undergoing a reshuffling....it wouldn't surprise me if we got a mini-torch in here when that happens....but the N Quebec blocking may protect us. That is a ways down the road though. Guidance has been struggling with the PAC quite a bit thus far this season, which is no surprise given the weak ENSO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 12, 2012 Share Posted December 12, 2012 Man oh man at that Euro run for here. I hate letting myself get even a little excited this far out. 2.5" QPF, all snow, from the 2 systems. EC ens mean has about 2" from both....not that QPF is worth worrying about outside of 48hrs, but that is pretty damn high for an ens mean. 6z GFS is solid too. That would be epic verbatim Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted December 12, 2012 Share Posted December 12, 2012 Its pretty neutral. There is some ridging more int he WPO region...EPO region just to the east has some ebbs and flows in the 11-15 panels. But the heights in general are much higher there by D14 vs D10. PAC seems to be undergoing a reshuffling....it wouldn't surprise me if we got a mini-torch in here when that happens....but the N Quebec blocking may protect us. That is a ways down the road though. Guidance has been struggling with the PAC quite a bit thus far this season, which is no surprise given the weak ENSO. Thanks Will. Overall guidance seems pretty favorable going forward for the big picture. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted December 12, 2012 Share Posted December 12, 2012 Who wants to start two threads for two events? Good juju people with good titles please Go for it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowMan Posted December 12, 2012 Share Posted December 12, 2012 Did DomNH move over to the Accuweather board? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted December 12, 2012 Share Posted December 12, 2012 I need to keep reminding myself that event #1 is still 96 hours away. There is a whole lot of time for this initial event to change in scope and impact. Good or bad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted December 12, 2012 Author Share Posted December 12, 2012 The Sultan brings the JUJU Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted December 12, 2012 Share Posted December 12, 2012 I need to keep reminding myself that event #1 is still 96 hours away. There is a whole lot of time for this initial event to change in scope and impact. Good or bad. I started a thread for the first but am ascared to do the second. Lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted December 12, 2012 Share Posted December 12, 2012 The Sultan brings the JUJU Analog master Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted December 12, 2012 Author Share Posted December 12, 2012 All hail the AO Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Torchey Posted December 12, 2012 Share Posted December 12, 2012 Just as patience was urged when the pattern looked like hell, I am surprised to see people spiking the ball 90 hours out and a week out. So much can change and will, hate to see weenies get hurt, its rain here regardless, hopefully all my friends to the north get covered in white and ice. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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