N. OF PIKE Posted December 12, 2012 Share Posted December 12, 2012 DT says not to get excited, that the 0z GFS is actually pretty warm. The east slope is gonna get pounded either way Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isotherm Posted December 12, 2012 Share Posted December 12, 2012 Check out the -32C H85 into Hudson Bay at the end of the run.....wow! This is how you get Arctic cold into the CONUS -- we've got to sacrifice the polar bears and torch Alaska: I do believe the EPO transition negative will occur by late month, as it has support from the tropical Pacific. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted December 12, 2012 Share Posted December 12, 2012 DT says not to get excited, that the 0z GFS is actually pretty warm. I wouldn't trust the product at all. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted December 12, 2012 Share Posted December 12, 2012 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted December 12, 2012 Share Posted December 12, 2012 Weaker flatter wave is the way to go. Gfs probably too warm anyway. Plenty of time left Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted December 12, 2012 Share Posted December 12, 2012 Weaker flatter wave is the way to go. Gfs probably too warm anyway. Plenty of time left It's likely too warm - agreed. Here's a thought, while the other Mets are playing the too late/tired to contribute card ... 168 through 200 hours is a mid-week event. Hm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted December 12, 2012 Share Posted December 12, 2012 It's likely too warm - agreed. Here's a thought, while the other Mets are playing the too late/tired to contribute card ... 168 through 200 hours is a mid-week event. Hm. It's still so many days away its tough. Just time to watch Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherMA Posted December 12, 2012 Share Posted December 12, 2012 GGEM looks pretty nice for Monday for a lot of areas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ctsnowstorm628 Posted December 12, 2012 Share Posted December 12, 2012 0z euro is gonna be fun up here in NNE I think. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ctsnowstorm628 Posted December 12, 2012 Share Posted December 12, 2012 Big interior hit. Classic NNE/CNE snow track over the cape. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NaoPos Posted December 12, 2012 Share Posted December 12, 2012 180, 984mb SLP just east of cape may... 186, 980 inside the BM..NNE TRACK... the 1st wave came way south.... 988 over Long Island... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ctsnowstorm628 Posted December 12, 2012 Share Posted December 12, 2012 I'd lose it if this happened. 1-3 feet for NNE in 3 days. That'd close school during finals lol not good. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
N. OF PIKE Posted December 12, 2012 Share Posted December 12, 2012 T.u for euro updates Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NaoPos Posted December 12, 2012 Share Posted December 12, 2012 1st wave is a 988 over eastern LI... 2nd wave is a 980 inside the benchmark between the 2 systems, 3" qpf max over boston area, and back to vt- canadian border, 1.75".. very wet period... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterLand Posted December 12, 2012 Share Posted December 12, 2012 1st wave is a 988 over eastern LI... 2nd wave is a 980 inside the benchmark between the 2 systems, 3" qpf max over boston area, and back to vt- canadian border, 1.75".. very wet period... Wow. That's impressive. Very active period coming up! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted December 12, 2012 Share Posted December 12, 2012 lol, some of the GFS ensemble members have some absolute monsters with the second system... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 12, 2012 Share Posted December 12, 2012 Ensembles mean moves the second low east of ACK, but there is probably some good spread regarding timing and position. First low starts off rather chilly, but areas south of the MA/NH border likely change to a mix. With a high nosing in like that, good chance a lot of the area are rather wintry. Second low will be all about the placement of it which could be right into SNE or east of the BM. The ensembles are not as amped as the op for the first wave. I would love the GEFS though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 12, 2012 Share Posted December 12, 2012 Euro op is chilly for wave 1. Classic latitude cold gradient. Temps at BOS just off the deck are chilly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 12, 2012 Share Posted December 12, 2012 Funny how the GFS and Euro differ this weekend regarding intensity. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted December 12, 2012 Author Share Posted December 12, 2012 Since Kev is on sabbatical I will say it. Morning wood, stout weenie,heavy heavy winter incoming. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted December 12, 2012 Author Share Posted December 12, 2012 Taking Wiils advice lets do the Mariners rule. System 1 looks like a classic redeveloper that is not a powerful storm but a latitude rippler. Verbatim an inside 128 to 184 to NNE with heaviest precip interior Mass. Could string out and be a constant light snow or even a little ice for those places or could have more stout lift and be a sweet little system with some decent jackpots. System 2 is way out there but how do you ignore it, ya can't. Classic signal, analogged well. Lots and lots of time but the constant model runs showing a deep system somewhere on the East Coast probably means it will get a lot of attention this weekend. Happyhappyhappy. Everybody happy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted December 12, 2012 Share Posted December 12, 2012 Man oh man at that Euro run for here. I hate letting myself get even a little excited this far out. 2.5" QPF, all snow, from the 2 systems. EC ens mean has about 2" from both....not that QPF is worth worrying about outside of 48hrs, but that is pretty damn high for an ens mean. 6z GFS is solid too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 12, 2012 Share Posted December 12, 2012 Taking Wiils advice lets do the Mariners rule. System 1 looks like a classic redeveloper that is not a powerful storm but a latitude rippler. Verbatim an inside 128 to 184 to NNE with heaviest precip interior Mass. Could string out and be a constant light snow or even a little ice for those places or could have more stout lift and be a sweet little system with some decent jackpots. System 2 is way out there but how do you ignore it, ya can't. Classic signal, analogged well. Lots and lots of time but the constant model runs showing a deep system somewhere on the East Coast probably means it will get a lot of attention this weekend. Happyhappyhappy. Everybody happy. Yeah one at a time. System 1 probably won't be all that strong, but advisory stuff anyways, maybe low end warning north of MA.NH border where mid level processes and erly LLJ pull back moisture. Even CF stuff maybe just near or NW of BOS depending on track. It's early, just preliminary thinking. System 2 could be a large QPF event, and maybe heavy elevation snows, but that is entirely track dependent. Notice how the low on some models like the 06z GFS doesn't up the coast when normally that would probably pull a 12/29/00. That is the block working it's magic. On guidance, this track would smoke much of SNE, but the cold just isn't really there unless this goes past the BM and bombs. It's early, but I feel elevation storm here, but could extend into interior NE MA. The GFS is very warm and pulls a March 2010 for Will during part of this, before turning into a paste bomb for a large part of the area. I'm not sure I buy those mid level temps, but it has the right idea for somewhat of a stale, but workable airmass I think. A track like the 06z with euro temps would be amazing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted December 12, 2012 Author Share Posted December 12, 2012 Those who punted by the way, nice friggin shank. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 12, 2012 Share Posted December 12, 2012 Those who punted by the way, nice friggin shank. Weenies gonna ween. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted December 12, 2012 Author Share Posted December 12, 2012 Man oh man at that Euro run for here. I hate letting myself get even a little excited this far out. 2.5" QPF, all snow, from the 2 systems. EC ens mean has about 2" from both....not that QPF is worth worrying about outside of 48hrs, but that is pretty damn high for an ens mean. 6z GFS is solid too. Look I know the weenie rules but geez hard not to feel a little tingle when you see porno runs unless you are a Puritan . Then again they HAVE to watch, can not avert their eyes, just don't talk about it in public, mean while in private..... Lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted December 12, 2012 Share Posted December 12, 2012 Man oh man at that Euro run for here. I hate letting myself get even a little excited this far out. 2.5" QPF, all snow, from the 2 systems. EC ens mean has about 2" from both....not that QPF is worth worrying about outside of 48hrs, but that is pretty damn high for an ens mean. 6z GFS is solid too. QPF is ALWAYS worth worrying about. Those who punted by the way, nice friggin shank. LOL. Great set of models to wake up to. Cautiously optimstic for a couple/few inches on Sunday. Wed is very inviting--but there will be a lof of bi-polar model reactions as we have 12 more EC runs to digest until then. Regardless--I'm glad I'll have most of the rest of the year off after today, ftw. 24.3/20 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MaineJayhawk Posted December 12, 2012 Share Posted December 12, 2012 We need the Rev back. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted December 12, 2012 Share Posted December 12, 2012 Euro weeklies ftw it would seem. Long term looks very wintry as we held through the holidays. Bring it! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 12, 2012 Share Posted December 12, 2012 Ha! Nice. GEFS have a different take than op. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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