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A new Baby, a fresh approach


Ginx snewx

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Check out the -32C H85 into Hudson Bay at the end of the run.....wow!

This is how you get Arctic cold into the CONUS -- we've got to sacrifice the polar bears and torch Alaska:

28u6v01.jpg

I do believe the EPO transition negative will occur by late month, as it has support from the tropical Pacific.

compare.we.png

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Ensembles mean moves the second low east of ACK, but there is probably some good spread regarding timing and position.

First low starts off rather chilly, but areas south of the MA/NH border likely change to a mix. With a high nosing in like that, good chance a lot of the area are rather wintry. Second low will be all about the placement of it which could be right into SNE or east of the BM.

The ensembles are not as amped as the op for the first wave.

I would love the GEFS though.

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Taking Wiils advice lets do the Mariners rule. System 1 looks like a classic redeveloper that is not a powerful storm but a latitude rippler. Verbatim an inside 128 to 184 to NNE with heaviest precip interior Mass. Could string out and be a constant light snow or even a little ice for those places or could have more stout lift and be a sweet little system with some decent jackpots. System 2 is way out there but how do you ignore it, ya can't. Classic signal, analogged well. Lots and lots of time but the constant model runs showing a deep system somewhere on the East Coast probably means it will get a lot of attention this weekend. Happyhappyhappy. Everybody happy.

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Man oh man at that Euro run for here. I hate letting myself get even a little excited this far out. 2.5" QPF, all snow, from the 2 systems. EC ens mean has about 2" from both....not that QPF is worth worrying about outside of 48hrs, but that is pretty damn high for an ens mean. 6z GFS is solid too.

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Taking Wiils advice lets do the Mariners rule. System 1 looks like a classic redeveloper that is not a powerful storm but a latitude rippler. Verbatim an inside 128 to 184 to NNE with heaviest precip interior Mass. Could string out and be a constant light snow or even a little ice for those places or could have more stout lift and be a sweet little system with some decent jackpots. System 2 is way out there but how do you ignore it, ya can't. Classic signal, analogged well. Lots and lots of time but the constant model runs showing a deep system somewhere on the East Coast probably means it will get a lot of attention this weekend. Happyhappyhappy. Everybody happy.

Yeah one at a time. System 1 probably won't be all that strong, but advisory stuff anyways, maybe low end warning north of MA.NH border where mid level processes and erly LLJ pull back moisture. Even CF stuff maybe just near or NW of BOS depending on track. It's early, just preliminary thinking.

System 2 could be a large QPF event, and maybe heavy elevation snows, but that is entirely track dependent. Notice how the low on some models like the 06z GFS doesn't up the coast when normally that would probably pull a 12/29/00. That is the block working it's magic. On guidance, this track would smoke much of SNE, but the cold just isn't really there unless this goes past the BM and bombs. It's early, but I feel elevation storm here, but could extend into interior NE MA. The GFS is very warm and pulls a March 2010 for Will during part of this, before turning into a paste bomb for a large part of the area. I'm not sure I buy those mid level temps, but it has the right idea for somewhat of a stale, but workable airmass I think. A track like the 06z with euro temps would be amazing.

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Man oh man at that Euro run for here. I hate letting myself get even a little excited this far out. 2.5" QPF, all snow, from the 2 systems. EC ens mean has about 2" from both....not that QPF is worth worrying about outside of 48hrs, but that is pretty damn high for an ens mean. 6z GFS is solid too.

Look I know the weenie rules but geez hard not to feel a little tingle when you see porno runs unless you are a Puritan . Then again they HAVE to watch, can not avert their eyes, just don't talk about it in public, mean while in private..... Lol
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Man oh man at that Euro run for here. I hate letting myself get even a little excited this far out. 2.5" QPF, all snow, from the 2 systems. EC ens mean has about 2" from both....not that QPF is worth worrying about outside of 48hrs, but that is pretty damn high for an ens mean. 6z GFS is solid too.

QPF is ALWAYS worth worrying about. :)

Those who punted by the way, nice friggin shank.

LOL.

Great set of models to wake up to. Cautiously optimstic for a couple/few inches on Sunday. Wed is very inviting--but there will be a lof of bi-polar model reactions as we have 12 more EC runs to digest until then. Regardless--I'm glad I'll have most of the rest of the year off after today, ftw.

24.3/20

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