Jump to content
  • Member Statistics

    17,584
    Total Members
    7,904
    Most Online
    LopezElliana
    Newest Member
    LopezElliana
    Joined

A new Baby, a fresh approach


Ginx snewx

Recommended Posts

  • Replies 2.1k
  • Created
  • Last Reply

Just trying to ruffle some feathers; I hope we all do well honestly. The pattern is laden with potential in the 18th-30th time frame.

Lol no worries not as sensitive as some and would never report or ask for your banning. But damn straight you would get it back. Seriously though this could pull a Dec 21 09 as well as a Feb 79 or even a Valentines day 07. Safe to say could be a juicy good time.
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Here's a bone for all of us -- SOI daily value was -45.7 today, and this current burst negative is akin to what we saw late spring of this year, which definitely played a role in getting the northern hemisphere blocking going for the JJA period. This stretch of strongly negative SOI values and finally some progression with tropical forcing should ensure that we reshuffle the present Nina-like NPAC pattern into an orientation that more closely resembles a warm neutral/weak Nino structure for the week 2-4 period, IMO. Some data are beginning to detect this idea - after the west based -NAO block fades/rots over Hudson's Bay, we might see those heights in the crucial AK/NW Canada region rise into the above normal territory. If that occurs, we'll open the floodgates for the Arctic Express by the time New Year's rolls around.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Lol no worries not as sensitive as some and would never report or ask for your banning. But damn straight you would get it back. Seriously though this could pull a Dec 21 09 as well as a Feb 79 or even a Valentines day 07. Safe to say could be a juicy good time.

Yeah it's definitely nice that we're beginning to see a transition toward a more Nino/split flow regime at least for the medium range. More moisture getting involved in the pattern and we could be looking at a few threats w/ waves running underneath as the block continues its retrogression westward.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

He's a good poster, if that post got feathers ruffled people need to get a life. It's days away we have no idea what's going to happen.

This is really not said enough while people wait for events. Its so much worse this year than previously. I figured a couple November teasers (a lot better than a teaser depending on where you were) might get people off the prozac...but its not.

We've been tracking individual storm threats as if they are 72 hours out when they are 192 hours out. Back a few years ago, you would probably be laughed off the forum if that happened.

The Sunday event is starting to get into range where you just begin to try and hone in on a 200-300 mile zone or so and then hopefully narrow that to a 100 by Thursday....the stuff beyond that is complete clown range. The longwave pattern and blocking looks semi-favorable, but that is about all we can say.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

This is really not said enough while people wait for events. Its so much worse this year than previously. I figured a couple November teasers (a lot better than a teaser depending on where you were) might get people off the prozac...but its not.

We've been tracking individual storm threats as if they are 72 hours out when they are 192 hours out. Back a few years ago, you would probably be laughed off the forum if that happened.

The Sunday event is starting to get into range where you just begin to try and hone in on a 200-300 mile zone or so and then hopefully narrow that to a 100 by Thursday....the stuff beyond that is complete clown range. The longwave pattern and blocking looks semi-favorable, but that is about all we can say.

This is all very true. And to add to it we have people at times making accumulation forecasts this far out both on the forum and in some cases on tv.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

This is really not said enough while people wait for events. Its so much worse this year than previously. I figured a couple November teasers (a lot better than a teaser depending on where you were) might get people off the prozac...but its not.

We've been tracking individual storm threats as if they are 72 hours out when they are 192 hours out. Back a few years ago, you would probably be laughed off the forum if that happened.

The Sunday event is starting to get into range where you just begin to try and hone in on a 200-300 mile zone or so and then hopefully narrow that to a 100 by Thursday....the stuff beyond that is complete clown range. The longwave pattern and blocking looks semi-favorable, but that is about all we can say.

Yeah of course the size of the "if" gets bigger and bigger as the time range goes out, I think people just have PTSD from last year and cling to possibilities way earlier lately. Perhaps some snow OTG will mellow everyone out.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

This is all very true. And to add to it we have people at times making accumulation forecasts this far out both on the forum and in some cases on tv.

Point me to a post where anyone said anything about accumulations. I do not know what Will is referring to either. Saw some posts saying things looked good but 99% of the posts are discussing potential.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Point me to a post where anyone said anything about accumulations. I do not know what Will is referring to either. Saw some posts saying things looked good but 99% of the posts are discussing potential.

ginx i'm calling for 6-12 in a swath from woodford vt to foster ri over to w. fitchburg up thru milton, nh and then back west to killington then s to woodford. for the first event.

for second event things are a bit too murky to lock things in yet, but getting clearer by the drinks...i mean days

as far as the storm goes nobody has confidence in a track at this stage, the most encouraging thing is that the antecedent airmass for first event has potential to be colder than most thought 36 hours ago.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Archived

This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.

Guest
This topic is now closed to further replies.
  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    • No registered users viewing this page.

×
×
  • Create New...