dryslot Posted December 11, 2012 Share Posted December 11, 2012 Can't wait for next week's storm to bury NYC-DCA while leaving New England smoking cirrus, maybe altostratus if you're lucky. lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted December 11, 2012 Author Share Posted December 11, 2012 Can't wait for next week's storm to bury NYC-DCA while leaving New England smoking cirrus, maybe altostratus if you're lucky. I would not be surprised but you might want to troll elsewhere. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 11, 2012 Share Posted December 11, 2012 You're situated nicely for round 1, Jeff. Kind of looks like it Mike, We will see how it plays out over the next few days, Right now i am on the right side of the boundary so that's a start Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted December 11, 2012 Author Share Posted December 11, 2012 I'm surprised at Isotherm, all this time I thought he was a pretty smart hobbyist. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isotherm Posted December 11, 2012 Share Posted December 11, 2012 I'm surprised at Isotherm, all this time I thought he was a pretty smart hobbyist. Just trying to ruffle some feathers; I hope we all do well honestly. The pattern is laden with potential in the 18th-30th time frame. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Miser Posted December 11, 2012 Share Posted December 11, 2012 Can't wait for next week's storm to bury NYC-DCA while leaving New England smoking cirrus, maybe altostratus if you're lucky. ...and so it begins. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 11, 2012 Share Posted December 11, 2012 I'm surprised at Isotherm, all this time I thought he was a pretty smart hobbyist. Did not expect that either............ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 11, 2012 Share Posted December 11, 2012 Just trying to ruffle some feathers; I hope we all do well honestly. The pattern is laden with potential in the 18th-30th time frame. Well you achieved your goal Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted December 11, 2012 Share Posted December 11, 2012 I'm surprised at Isotherm, all this time I thought he was a pretty smart hobbyist. that rattle was our chain being yankedA Dec KU type event would be sweet Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted December 11, 2012 Share Posted December 11, 2012 Well you achieved your goal Snow is serious business... ...oh wait, snow drives business. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
N. OF PIKE Posted December 11, 2012 Share Posted December 11, 2012 at some point we may become concerned for significant icing sun nite/mon over the interior in a decent sized area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted December 11, 2012 Author Share Posted December 11, 2012 Just trying to ruffle some feathers; I hope we all do well honestly. The pattern is laden with potential in the 18th-30th time frame. Lol no worries not as sensitive as some and would never report or ask for your banning. But damn straight you would get it back. Seriously though this could pull a Dec 21 09 as well as a Feb 79 or even a Valentines day 07. Safe to say could be a juicy good time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isotherm Posted December 11, 2012 Share Posted December 11, 2012 Here's a bone for all of us -- SOI daily value was -45.7 today, and this current burst negative is akin to what we saw late spring of this year, which definitely played a role in getting the northern hemisphere blocking going for the JJA period. This stretch of strongly negative SOI values and finally some progression with tropical forcing should ensure that we reshuffle the present Nina-like NPAC pattern into an orientation that more closely resembles a warm neutral/weak Nino structure for the week 2-4 period, IMO. Some data are beginning to detect this idea - after the west based -NAO block fades/rots over Hudson's Bay, we might see those heights in the crucial AK/NW Canada region rise into the above normal territory. If that occurs, we'll open the floodgates for the Arctic Express by the time New Year's rolls around. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Torchey Posted December 11, 2012 Share Posted December 11, 2012 Hopefully, this brings Kevin back. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isotherm Posted December 11, 2012 Share Posted December 11, 2012 Lol no worries not as sensitive as some and would never report or ask for your banning. But damn straight you would get it back. Seriously though this could pull a Dec 21 09 as well as a Feb 79 or even a Valentines day 07. Safe to say could be a juicy good time. Yeah it's definitely nice that we're beginning to see a transition toward a more Nino/split flow regime at least for the medium range. More moisture getting involved in the pattern and we could be looking at a few threats w/ waves running underneath as the block continues its retrogression westward. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
N. OF PIKE Posted December 11, 2012 Share Posted December 11, 2012 LL , if we all know kev, he has a pants tent for sun nite and then onward, and he will be posting by that period Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Torchey Posted December 12, 2012 Share Posted December 12, 2012 LL , if we all know kev, he has a pants tent for sun nite and then onward, and he will be posting by that period I know:) just my way of saying howdy to the rev. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted December 12, 2012 Share Posted December 12, 2012 I'm surprised at Isotherm, all this time I thought he was a pretty smart hobbyist. He's a good poster, if that post got feathers ruffled people need to get a life. It's days away we have no idea what's going to happen. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SlantStickers Anonymous Posted December 12, 2012 Share Posted December 12, 2012 Awesome that we're getting into an active period. And LL your avatar rocks lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
N. OF PIKE Posted December 12, 2012 Share Posted December 12, 2012 Awesome that we're getting into an active period. And LL your avatar rocks lol. violently agree with both Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted December 12, 2012 Share Posted December 12, 2012 Imagine the meltdown of a mid Atlantic storm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 12, 2012 Share Posted December 12, 2012 He's a good poster, if that post got feathers ruffled people need to get a life. It's days away we have no idea what's going to happen. This is really not said enough while people wait for events. Its so much worse this year than previously. I figured a couple November teasers (a lot better than a teaser depending on where you were) might get people off the prozac...but its not. We've been tracking individual storm threats as if they are 72 hours out when they are 192 hours out. Back a few years ago, you would probably be laughed off the forum if that happened. The Sunday event is starting to get into range where you just begin to try and hone in on a 200-300 mile zone or so and then hopefully narrow that to a 100 by Thursday....the stuff beyond that is complete clown range. The longwave pattern and blocking looks semi-favorable, but that is about all we can say. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted December 12, 2012 Share Posted December 12, 2012 This is really not said enough while people wait for events. Its so much worse this year than previously. I figured a couple November teasers (a lot better than a teaser depending on where you were) might get people off the prozac...but its not. We've been tracking individual storm threats as if they are 72 hours out when they are 192 hours out. Back a few years ago, you would probably be laughed off the forum if that happened. The Sunday event is starting to get into range where you just begin to try and hone in on a 200-300 mile zone or so and then hopefully narrow that to a 100 by Thursday....the stuff beyond that is complete clown range. The longwave pattern and blocking looks semi-favorable, but that is about all we can say. This is all very true. And to add to it we have people at times making accumulation forecasts this far out both on the forum and in some cases on tv. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SlantStickers Anonymous Posted December 12, 2012 Share Posted December 12, 2012 This is really not said enough while people wait for events. Its so much worse this year than previously. I figured a couple November teasers (a lot better than a teaser depending on where you were) might get people off the prozac...but its not. We've been tracking individual storm threats as if they are 72 hours out when they are 192 hours out. Back a few years ago, you would probably be laughed off the forum if that happened. The Sunday event is starting to get into range where you just begin to try and hone in on a 200-300 mile zone or so and then hopefully narrow that to a 100 by Thursday....the stuff beyond that is complete clown range. The longwave pattern and blocking looks semi-favorable, but that is about all we can say. Yeah of course the size of the "if" gets bigger and bigger as the time range goes out, I think people just have PTSD from last year and cling to possibilities way earlier lately. Perhaps some snow OTG will mellow everyone out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eduggs Posted December 12, 2012 Share Posted December 12, 2012 The GEFS mean looks a little better again this run for the interior but there is still large spread so the mean is not representative of a discrete solution. Early look at the indiivuals looks like a few warm ones and a few snowier ones. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted December 12, 2012 Author Share Posted December 12, 2012 This is all very true. And to add to it we have people at times making accumulation forecasts this far out both on the forum and in some cases on tv. Point me to a post where anyone said anything about accumulations. I do not know what Will is referring to either. Saw some posts saying things looked good but 99% of the posts are discussing potential. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SouthCoastMA Posted December 12, 2012 Share Posted December 12, 2012 Point me to a post where anyone said anything about accumulations. I do not know what Will is referring to either. Saw some posts saying things looked good but 99% of the posts are discussing potential. PB calling for brown Xmas. Other than that not sure Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChrisM Posted December 12, 2012 Share Posted December 12, 2012 I really hope to see some nice model runs when I get back from the bar. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 12, 2012 Share Posted December 12, 2012 I really hope to see some nice model runs when I get back from the bar. Probably be seeing the back of your eyelids by that time Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
N. OF PIKE Posted December 12, 2012 Share Posted December 12, 2012 Point me to a post where anyone said anything about accumulations. I do not know what Will is referring to either. Saw some posts saying things looked good but 99% of the posts are discussing potential. ginx i'm calling for 6-12 in a swath from woodford vt to foster ri over to w. fitchburg up thru milton, nh and then back west to killington then s to woodford. for the first event. for second event things are a bit too murky to lock things in yet, but getting clearer by the drinks...i mean days as far as the storm goes nobody has confidence in a track at this stage, the most encouraging thing is that the antecedent airmass for first event has potential to be colder than most thought 36 hours ago. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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