Ginx snewx Posted December 8, 2012 Author Share Posted December 8, 2012 What is interesting Mr Ed is with the help of LR analogs Sandy, Nov 8 and Nov 27 were pointed out as possible stormy times with cold outcomes on the NW sides. Right now the Dec 17-22nd period fits that bill. Yes I love trying to predict what the atmosphere will look like in 10 -15 days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted December 8, 2012 Share Posted December 8, 2012 I lost the point as well. Regardless of what he thinks, I enjoy the discussion and it's motivated me to get more knowledgeable on the subject. The forecast doesn't magically begin on day 7. Agree. Plus it passes the time during quiet periods. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MaineJayhawk Posted December 8, 2012 Share Posted December 8, 2012 Eagerly awaiting the 11-15 day GEFS .... can not wait ... ohhh, boy! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snywx Posted December 8, 2012 Share Posted December 8, 2012 where do you live ? Im pretty sure he is due west of DXR in Putnam Cty.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChrisM Posted December 8, 2012 Share Posted December 8, 2012 What is interesting Mr Ed is with the help of LR analogs Sandy, Nov 8 and Nov 27 were pointed out as possible stormy times with cold outcomes on the NW sides. Right now the Dec 17-22nd period fits that bill. Yes I love trying to predict what the atmosphere will look like in 10 -15 days. It's an amazing thing to even slightly guess what a fluid will do in two weeks Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SlantStickers Anonymous Posted December 8, 2012 Share Posted December 8, 2012 It's an amazing thing to even slightly guess what a fluid will do in two weeks When sandy steadily began going from "lol look at this insane model run" to looking more and more likely each run, that was awesome. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted December 8, 2012 Share Posted December 8, 2012 What is interesting Mr Ed is with the help of LR analogs Sandy, Nov 8 and Nov 27 were pointed out as possible stormy times with cold outcomes on the NW sides. Right now the Dec 17-22nd period fits that bill. Yes I love trying to predict what the atmosphere will look like in 10 -15 days. Pointless talking about day 10 potential... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted December 8, 2012 Author Share Posted December 8, 2012 It's an amazing thing to even slightly guess what a fluid will do in two weeks Drs do it all the time, ask Mrs Scooter lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted December 8, 2012 Author Share Posted December 8, 2012 Pointless talking about day 10 potential... my all time favorite was Superstorm 93 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChrisM Posted December 8, 2012 Share Posted December 8, 2012 When sandy steadily began going from "lol look at this insane model run" to looking more and more likely each run, that was awesome. the grasp we have on things is just amazing, as rudimentary as it seems sometimes. When people whine about weathermen being wrong I tell them to imagine an unevenly heated pool with several currents. Then I tell them to put a drop of food dye in and tell me where it'll be in a few hours. They always stop talking. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
N. OF PIKE Posted December 8, 2012 Share Posted December 8, 2012 Lol the forum is in a rough spot. The current wx pattern is soo horrible we Have to focus on long range hope bc as pf says,"that's all we got", the annoying thing about concentrating on the 11-15 day period is ...for weeks at a time..it never seems to get closer...and when u actually start looking closer at 11-15 day trends there often aren't any, even when u see one for a couple days,it can go poof. So anyway let's hope we all get a 1-3 kfs special tue nite , to sedate everyones nerves. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted December 8, 2012 Share Posted December 8, 2012 When models are showing a developing MJO wave into phase 1 by D7-D10 and this is your composite 500mb height... may be tough to get big Aleutian ridging lol. Agreed though that we do have potential going forward. I expect many more meltdowns before 12/15. Im not proclaiming any expertise in this, honestly, im in beginning stages of grasping the roundy mjo. From what i have been told the roundy mjo forcasts are one of the more accurate (relatively speaking for mjo forecasts) out their. In looking at the roundy forecasts, to me it looks like the ones that you posted are rushing the mjo a little. I see the wave they are keying on which the roundy has, but their is no storng -OLR just yet. In my opinion, i believe if going off the roundy forecasts that the robust mjo wave would be post christmas. You can see around dec 26 the +OLR and area of subsidence is starting to fire decently, and and we should see a response in -OLR soon. If these forecasts are right we should see a phase 7-8 entrance just shortly after christmas of a decent wave. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SlantStickers Anonymous Posted December 8, 2012 Share Posted December 8, 2012 the grasp we have on things is just amazing, as rudimentary as it seems sometimes. When people whine about weathermen being wrong I tell them to imagine an unevenly heated pool with several currents. Then I tell them to put a drop of food dye in and tell me where it'll be in a few hours. They always stop talking. Absolutely, people like to assume everything is easy as pie and don't realize just how huge the amount of variables involved in the science is. That's what makes nailing a forecast such a touchdown. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted December 8, 2012 Author Share Posted December 8, 2012 Lol the forum is in a rough spot. The current wx pattern is soo horrible we Have to focus on long range hope bc as pf says,"that's all we got", the annoying thing about concentrating on the 11-15 day period is ...for weeks at a time..it never seems to get closer...and when u actually start looking closer at 11-15 day trends there often aren't any, even when u see one for a couple days,it can go poof. So anyway let's hope we all get a 1-3 kfs special tue nite , to sedate everyones nerves. I could point you to 10/11 and many other years where the total opposite occurred, where it seemed every LR prog came true, porno run after porno run. The problem this year, everyone is deathly afraid of a repeat of last year. Just scared of the gallows afraid. Freddy Kruger afraid, Hannibal Lecter scared. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted December 8, 2012 Author Share Posted December 8, 2012 LOL Tombos OLR map , Bryce drawing already? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherMA Posted December 8, 2012 Share Posted December 8, 2012 18z gfs is a lot less bullish with the Tuesday wave compared to the NAM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted December 8, 2012 Share Posted December 8, 2012 LOL Tombos OLR map , Bryce drawing already? The Roundy diagrams are great. Certainly possible models are rushing it... but the fact that they are developing it is probably playing in to how the models are changing the pattern post D10 in the N Pac. The one thing of note with the Euro and GEFS MJO forecasts were essentially dead for a month but now have perked up and have been consistent. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isotherm Posted December 8, 2012 Share Posted December 8, 2012 Go back and read what I've written instead of sounding like an idiot. I don't mind long range discussion. But as others have said, it's only very general speculation. I you go back and read the old posts since early November, there have been red taggers mentioning two week wintry chances almost daily. We have wintry chances THIS WEEK, never mind next week. You remind me of someone from another board who would get all hot and bothered with long range forecasts, always trying to shoot them down whenever possible. Interesting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
heavy_wx Posted December 8, 2012 Share Posted December 8, 2012 The GEFS shows a decent MJO phase 1 for the 6-10 day average, but there is a weaker signal for the 11-15 day average, although some of that may be due to the ensemble spread. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthShoreWx Posted December 9, 2012 Share Posted December 9, 2012 I could point you to 10/11 and many other years where the total opposite occurred, where it seemed every LR prog came true, porno run after porno run. The problem this year, everyone is deathly afraid of a repeat of last year. Just scared of the gallows afraid. Freddy Kruger afraid, Hannibal Lecter scared. Pretty much. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 9, 2012 Share Posted December 9, 2012 SFS beats KEURO again this week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted December 9, 2012 Share Posted December 9, 2012 SFS beats KEURO again this week. Tough stretch for the Kuro Weaklies Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 9, 2012 Share Posted December 9, 2012 Tough stretch for the Kuro Weaklies lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ctsnowstorm628 Posted December 9, 2012 Share Posted December 9, 2012 18z gfs is a lot less bullish with the Tuesday wave compared to the NAM. Still 1-2" it seems. GFS also has a SE bias, but with an afrontal deal, it may be the way to lean. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JERSEYSNOWROB Posted December 9, 2012 Share Posted December 9, 2012 Just my two cents here, and it doesnt mean much, but i personally have no prob with ctblizz's relentless optimism. I think its great for the board in times like this and he always gives us snowlovers hope, regardless of how slim it may actually be. Hahaha Same could be said for snow88. Regarding eduggs, I have seen his posts before and he does offer alot of knowledge and does seem to have alot of experience in the field, despite not having a red tag, so its not like he doesnt know what he is talking about. He's just an old timer offering his opinion thats all. I dont think he's purposely trying to irritate anyone. Everyone else here is doing a great job discussing the possibilities in the future and i appreciate that as well. I think what we all need though is a good 'ol fashion snowstorm to make everyone level headed once again. Hahaha THINK SNOW!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isotherm Posted December 9, 2012 Share Posted December 9, 2012 Just my two cents here, and it doesnt mean much, but i personally have no prob with ctblizz's relentless optimism. I think its great for the board in times like this and he always gives us snowlovers hope, regardless of how slim it may actually be. Hahaha Same could be said for snow88. Regarding eduggs, I have seen his posts before and he does offer alot of knowledge and does seem to have alot of experience in the field, despite not having a red tag, so its not like he doesnt know what he is talking about. He's just an old timer offering his opinion thats all. I dont think he's purposely trying to irritate anyone. Everyone else here is doing a great job discussing the possibilities in the future and i appreciate that as well. I think what we all need though is a good 'ol fashion snowstorm to make everyone level headed once again. Hahaha THINK SNOW!!! Cumbaya was playing in my head as I read your post. Agreed though, we need a nice snowstorm. I don't know how these boards would've survived in the 1988-1992 period or even 1997-2000 in the NYC area. We're all spoiled from good winters in general over the last decade, and folks begin to get antsy if a snow flake has not been seen 1 week into met winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Miser Posted December 9, 2012 Share Posted December 9, 2012 Peopletake blizz way too seriously This. ... And if someone THAT irritated with him they could block him. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JERSEYSNOWROB Posted December 9, 2012 Share Posted December 9, 2012 Cumbaya was playing in my head as I read your post. Agreed though, we need a nice snowstorm. I don't know how these boards would've survived in the 1988-1992 period or even 1997-2000 in the NYC area. We're all spoiled from good winters in general over the last decade, and folks begin to get antsy if a snow flake has not been seen 1 week into met winter. hahaha Hope everyone feels better now. Hahaha But yeah, trust me I know all about lousy winters growing up in the heart of south jersey so I've learned to appreciate any snow at all! Even here in central jersey i dont take anything for granted, despite having a good streak going on here lately! Hahaha Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JERSEYSNOWROB Posted December 9, 2012 Share Posted December 9, 2012 This. ... And if someone THAT irritated with him they could block him. exactly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted December 9, 2012 Author Share Posted December 9, 2012 The closed low on the Euro Op at the end of the run seems interesting, going to have to watch if that cold pool ULL becomes a feature on new runs. Analogs suggest that time period to feature one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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