HM Posted December 11, 2012 Share Posted December 11, 2012 All systems are a go for an event or multiple ones in the time frame! As tip mentions above, so many waves and blocks to worry about..the 12z euro trended to a wide right with the storm on the 19th after tracking over chicago last night...should be fun to predict I see what you are saying with it looking ready to torch afterwards. My initial thinking is that this block will likely have a longer stay/influence, perhaps lasting into the new year..but that is primarily off of the fact that they tend to last for a solid period once they form, and models tend to break them down too quickly...However, is this an exception because of what you just said in this being a bootleg type of block, downstream from the departing PV? Or do we keep seeing waves undercutting through the new year? Either way I'd guess there would likely still be some warm/torchy type days in between any waves undercutting the block post- day 10 Your guess is as good as mine whether or not the blocking repeats. It usually does, correct, but without the Pacific aid, I'm wondering if this becomes the exception to the "rule." Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HM Posted December 11, 2012 Share Posted December 11, 2012 Do you think the fact that it formed this way, instead of the more traditional way was kind of a way to get "around" the conflicting stratospheric signals? I was definitely a bit skeptical of the west based NAO at first, but it definitely seems like it's moving up on all of the guidance. The signals actually aren't as conflicting as they first appeared to be. The developing CW and vortex escaping to Siberia was being picked up by the modeling last week. We speculated that it was possible the west-based NAO could form with this warming rushing in behind the departing vortex but it wasn't a favored solution. It seems like the vortex and warming are both faster. It's basically a classic "displaced vortex" scenario unfolding but with a poor Pacific. The suppressed solutions on the modeling today are very possible with shades of Mar 80' ... you get a progressive Pacific forced underneath a ridge and suddenly NC-VA are the hot spot. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dsnowx53 Posted December 11, 2012 Share Posted December 11, 2012 Yeah I'm certainly not disagreeing or saying forky is wrong here..just simply playing devil's advocate and siting feb 2010 for a stale airmass/bowling ball galore pattern that produced strong low pressures... In my post above i was stating how during last week, the gfs started keying on a canadian warming in the stratosphere, behind the vortex swinging into siberia..so that development progressed up to this point in the forecast and now does support this ridging in the west based regions (as the vortex is not sitting over the north-atlantic anymore...the cause for skepticism last week). That's a good point and certainly makes sense to me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dsnowx53 Posted December 11, 2012 Share Posted December 11, 2012 The signals actually aren't as conflicting as they first appeared to be. The developing CW and vortex escaping to Siberia was being picked up by the modeling last week. We speculated that it was possible the west-based NAO could form with this warming rushing in behind the departing vortex but it wasn't a favored solution. It seems like the vortex and warming are both faster. It's basically a classic "displaced vortex" scenario unfolding but with a poor Pacific. The suppressed solutions on the modeling today are very possible with shades of Mar 80' ... you get a progressive Pacific forced underneath a ridge and suddenly NC-VA are the hot spot. Thanks for the explanation. And yeah, I definitely fear suppression somewhat with the upcoming pattern after the initial further north wave. You have the flat rolling ridge upstream of our potent shortwaves combined with a very high height anomaly to our north. That definitely does not scream a cutter to me. But despite that fear, I do like where we sit with the Chris storm and threats after that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted December 11, 2012 Share Posted December 11, 2012 Can anyone clarify what the Chris storm references? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dsnowx53 Posted December 11, 2012 Share Posted December 11, 2012 Can anyone clarify what the Chris storm references? Dec 19-20. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bostonseminole Posted December 11, 2012 Share Posted December 11, 2012 Can anyone clarify what the Chris storm references? I assumed it was short for christmas Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted December 11, 2012 Share Posted December 11, 2012 Dec 19-20. Thanks Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Torchey Posted December 11, 2012 Share Posted December 11, 2012 Was not expecting that on the GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SouthCoastMA Posted December 11, 2012 Share Posted December 11, 2012 Was not expecting that on the GFS. Weekend storm looks like a warm PUKE on the 18zGFS, verbatim loses the INV trough too Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted December 11, 2012 Share Posted December 11, 2012 It seems we live in a global climate era where you get things like a your whole season's snow average leveled across a 2 to 3 week time span. You get crazy droughts and heat in the warm seasons. Weird "hook storms" that have only been theorized but there you go - I don't know - the problem with climate upheaval is there are too many counter-point arguments that have to be disproven or proven, such that by the time the truth is vetted out, 50 years have gone by and everyone's dead from the calamity of the thing. Well ... there's your answer! Anyway, I guess the Great Snow of 1717 dumped a season's worth in 10 days. That was supposedly a stabler climate era - colder, but stable. If it can happen then, it can certainly happen now. I'm talking about the 06z GFS run I just looked at it. Jebus H Gripe!! Modulate all three of those menaces just a tick or two and you got 25, 25, and 25 for someone. It even implies at the end, a backer. heh. So I take a gander at that 18z rollin' on in and it has a Subsume scenario - basically, that means it takes a potent southern streamer and uses it to induce a southward plunging SPV fragment, that latter captures the former, they have sex, toss a giant load on New England. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 11, 2012 Share Posted December 11, 2012 2nd wave is going to go BOOM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted December 11, 2012 Share Posted December 11, 2012 Tip, what would Shelby Scott think? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted December 11, 2012 Share Posted December 11, 2012 Toss it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Torchey Posted December 11, 2012 Share Posted December 11, 2012 This has such the feel of December 2010, couple cutters, near miss then the hammer dropped, not the same pattern exactly but certainly the same feeling. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted December 11, 2012 Share Posted December 11, 2012 This has such the feel of December 2010, couple cutters, near miss then the hammer dropped, not the same pattern exactly but certainly the same feeling. I think 55+ is behind us until after the holidays unless we get a cutter wind up and cut 1000 miles west of us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Torchey Posted December 11, 2012 Share Posted December 11, 2012 I think 55+ is behind us until after the holidays unless we get a cutter wind up and cut 1000 miles west of us. Lets hope so. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted December 11, 2012 Share Posted December 11, 2012 Tip, what would Shelby Scott think? she was a bit before my time... I moved to SNE back in the mid 1980s - she was pretty much done by then, wasn't she. I remember vaguely that she was always stuck out in the snow as a reporter, but that's about it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted December 11, 2012 Share Posted December 11, 2012 she was a bit before my time... I moved to SNE back in the mid 1980s - she was pretty much done by then, wasn't she. I remember vaguely that she was always stuck out in the snow as a reporter, but that's about it. And a little piece of trivia...she was from Seattle. One time in the early 70s Seattle was getting about 8 inches of snow and they were mentioning her old home town on the air. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted December 11, 2012 Share Posted December 11, 2012 man this run just gets colder and stormier the deeper it goes. that la-la lander at the end would be bitter cold snow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted December 11, 2012 Share Posted December 11, 2012 man this run just gets colder and stormier the deeper it goes. that la-la lander at the end would be bitter cold snow Wow -20c 850s Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eduggs Posted December 11, 2012 Share Posted December 11, 2012 The 18z GFS kind of threads the needle to achieve the less desirable outcomes. Especially for ENY and W SNE. With that kind of primary setup, odds are some kind of warm layer gets up into at least CNE. We need yesterday's GFS setup where the primary did not gain so much latitude before filling. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted December 11, 2012 Author Share Posted December 11, 2012 You guys should really look at the analog dates and plug them in on the Daily Weather maps archive site. Within 3 days of the analogs are multiple big snow storms. The MA to NE are in the game. I posted the animated composite gifs several days ago. Several runs today are very close. Feeling much more confident that a near KU event will unfold. The usual caveats at long term. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eduggs Posted December 11, 2012 Share Posted December 11, 2012 I think 55+ is behind us until after the holidays unless we get a cutter wind up and cut 1000 miles west of us. Guidance has a cutter 500 miles west of us. But interior sections should stay cool. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isotherm Posted December 11, 2012 Share Posted December 11, 2012 Can't wait for next week's storm to bury NYC-DCA while leaving New England smoking cirrus, maybe altostratus if you're lucky. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eduggs Posted December 11, 2012 Share Posted December 11, 2012 Can't wait for next week's storm to bury NYC-DCA while leaving New England smoking cirrus, maybe altostratus if you're lucky. That would be painful. Especially if the GFS is right and SNE sees almost no snow with the Sun - Tue threats. The big coastal low on the guidance is still 8 days out. Nearly fantasy land. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted December 11, 2012 Share Posted December 11, 2012 Guidance has a cutter 500 miles west of us. But interior sections should stay cool. where do you live, ed? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 11, 2012 Share Posted December 11, 2012 I would endorse the GEFS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted December 11, 2012 Share Posted December 11, 2012 Could be a nice stretch of winter weather You're situated nicely for round 1, Jeff. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isotherm Posted December 11, 2012 Share Posted December 11, 2012 That would be painful. Especially if the GFS is right and SNE sees almost no snow with the Sun - Tue threats. The big coastal low on the guidance is still 8 days out. Nearly fantasy land. That would indeed be quite a painful experience. But not to worry, I'm willing to mail people some snow in a cardboard box just so you can remember what it looks, feels, and tastes like. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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