ORH_wxman Posted December 11, 2012 Share Posted December 11, 2012 As noted by many over the weekend, weenies doing swan dies had premature ejaculation. The pattern is going according to form as progged by our best mets on the bb over the past weeks. And going forward it's encouraging as well as the Pacific pieces are moving so as not to screw us long term. That said...it all has to come to be. Lots of teams in the red zone but fail to score. There have definitely been a few changes from last week...but the premature weenie suicides were definitely a bit much. The PAC cutting off wasn't expected but it looks like it is a transient feature as the vortex up there retrogrades into Asia. We still hopefully benefit from the cold source initially this coming weekend as it tries to filter in from the north. The negative NAO is going to work out which was nice...I think many figured an east based or central -NAO...but a little surprising to see it come so far west. We still might get screwed, but we'll at least go down swinging if we do. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted December 11, 2012 Share Posted December 11, 2012 Man...12/18-20 looks awesome on the ec ens. 12/17 looks great for NNE too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ctsnowstorm628 Posted December 11, 2012 Share Posted December 11, 2012 Man...12/18-20 looks awesome on the ec ens. 12/17 looks great for NNE too. Go on... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwinter23 Posted December 11, 2012 Share Posted December 11, 2012 it's a perfectly legitimate meteorological thing to say...the gradient is reduced due to decreased amount of cold air in Canada from the +EPO/poor Pacfic. There's plenty of pro-snow optimistic around here to counteract Forky's presence. baroclinicity across the east is awful during the blocking period By the way I hope I didnt come off as poo-pooing your ideas and comments here. What you're saying is obviously valid meteorology...I was just challenging the assertion in this case..I'm certainly not predicting 970mb bombs in the next 2 weeks either Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 11, 2012 Share Posted December 11, 2012 Man...12/18-20 looks awesome on the ec ens. 12/17 looks great for NNE too. Could be a nice stretch of winter weather Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted December 11, 2012 Share Posted December 11, 2012 Go on... Primary into OH Valley 174hr...redevelopment off the Mid Atl coast 180-186. Then a sub 1000mb low moving NE inside the BM. Pretty juiced with QPF for the ec ens being that far out. Many closed sfc isobars too...it almost looks like a deterministic solution. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HM Posted December 11, 2012 Share Posted December 11, 2012 I don't mean to belittle the NAO and its possible influence but there are multiple ways to get a plus anomaly somewhere. What we are calling a west-based -NAO, which it is, seems like the downstream ridging from the exiting PV-West Canadian trough. It's not exactly the classic way you get a west-based -NAO; but, it can still produce the proper high placement and dampening of the jet stream to get a coastal storm track. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwinter23 Posted December 11, 2012 Share Posted December 11, 2012 There have definitely been a few changes from last week...but the premature weenie suicides were definitely a bit much. The PAC cutting off wasn't expected but it looks like it is a transient feature as the vortex up there retrogrades into Asia. We still hopefully benefit from the cold source initially this coming weekend as it tries to filter in from the north. The negative NAO is going to work out which was nice...I think many figured an east based or central -NAO...but a little surprising to see it come so far west. We still might get screwed, but we'll at least go down swinging if we do. I like how the Canadian warming in the stratosphere, along with the PV rotating out of the Atlantic and into siberia will support this NAO west period nicely. It was a weak signal on the 11-15 day forecasts all last week, starting with the gfs, and it grew stronger and stronger on each run..now we see this NAO period likely coming to fruition in the next few days as this forecast has successfully progressed. Of course the stratosphere vortex moving into siberia with canadian warming event behind it is also the reason for the retrograde of the cold air vortex in the tropsophere across Alaska that you mention...give and take, but i think this will ultimately benefit new england Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted December 11, 2012 Share Posted December 11, 2012 They're out on Allan's site. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HM Posted December 11, 2012 Share Posted December 11, 2012 I like how the Canadian warming in the stratosphere, along with the PV rotating out of the Atlantic and into siberia will support this NAO west period nicely. It was a weak signal on the 11-15 day forecasts all last week, starting with the gfs, and it grew stronger and stronger on each run..now we see this NAO period likely coming to fruition in the next few days as this forecast has successfully progressed. Of course the stratosphere vortex moving into siberia with canadian warming event behind it is also the reason for the retrograde of the cold air vortex in the tropsophere across Alaska that you mention...give and take, but i think this will ultimately benefit new england So are we back on for the Chris storm? The day 10 euro suite is beautiful and scary all at the same time. It looks like it is itching to torch once this convoluted mess gets cleared out. But not to fear, a total stratospheric PV destruction seems inevitable for January. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted December 11, 2012 Share Posted December 11, 2012 Man...12/18-20 looks awesome on the ec ens. 12/17 looks great for NNE too. It's really something how long that signal for the 17th through the 21st or thereabouts has been in the guidance. Whether more elaborate ...at other times somewhat less admittedly, we've kept coming back to this thing now going on 7 day or more back in time. I'm seeing a couple possibilities that really begin D5 and carry through the solstice. The GFS seems to be confused about which S/W to use, as does the Euro, showing some pretty small wave spacing. That's hard to do - in fact, more times than not, one of them becomes dominant. You don't really get 2 or 3 majors in a row unless you have some freakish set up like The Great Snow of 1717. But even then there was like 10 or 12 days to get all 3, and that technically is a pack job but can be done with some wave spacing between each. I think the Euro is trying to do a 48 hour protracted snow/sleet/zr deal for SNE, then the latter system ...my guess is the operational run is a SE outlier relative to the ens. The exact nature/complexion of the NAO blocking during that time is quite possibly overcooked in the operational runs, for the GFS, too, for that matter. The suppression down the coast of the storm track ...yeah, it's warranted for a west based NAO block, but we are not talking about a -4SD hammer with this set up. It's actually alleviating the suppressive exertion some by then, anyway - at least as the CEF means has it. The conceptual model has that system closer to the coast. Another way to look at it is storm track procession is not usually 1,000 naut mile east of the predecessor in general, that is. But, that S/W and jet dynamic potency are large, and that should throw up a lead S/W ridge rollout that would super-impose over residual positive anomalies just off the SE U.S. Coast, and that would all feed back on NW track as well.. The list goes... the best thickness packing is NW of that track as the Euro/GFS operational blend has it, too, and is situate along or west of the Gulf Stream. With a cold high in eastern Canada? right....good luck. I tell you what....let's take 'em one at a time. The lead system for the weekend, is see a fairly long light to moderate mix deal. Could be an icestorm in a narrow band Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ctsnowstorm628 Posted December 11, 2012 Share Posted December 11, 2012 Primary into OH Valley 174hr...redevelopment off the Mid Atl coast 180-186. Then a sub 1000mb low moving NE inside the BM. Pretty juiced with QPF for the ec ens being that far out. Many closed sfc isobars too...it almost looks like a deterministic solution. How does it look for 12/17? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
klw Posted December 11, 2012 Share Posted December 11, 2012 In the context of my post I'd say southern VT/NH. Maybe even rt 2 Not to resurrect this topic too much but careful when you refer to route 2 as there is the one across NNE BTV to Maine, the one through Mass and I believe there is another in RI. Your full post puts in context but in can be potentially confusing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hazey Posted December 11, 2012 Share Posted December 11, 2012 I'm not sure about the rest of you guys but I'd gladly take a 2-4, 3-6" snowfall in a heartbeat. Especially concidering the benign period we just endured. So it probably won't be a blockbuster or KU. Who cares. This looks like the best chance we've had in a long time. When Mother Nature throws you a bone...you don't throw it back. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ctsnowstorm628 Posted December 11, 2012 Share Posted December 11, 2012 Not to resurrect this topic too much but careful when you refer to route 2 as there is the one across NNE BTV to Maine, the one through Mass and I believe there is another in RI. Your full post puts in context but in can be potentially confusing. LOL you're right. In context mine made perfect sense but I gotcha. I obviously meant Mass. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted December 11, 2012 Share Posted December 11, 2012 How does it look for 12/17? Warmer and a little juicier than the op...850 0C gets up to the NH/MA border d6. The sfc high doesn't appear to nose in as much...even when considering that it's a smoothed out mean. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted December 11, 2012 Share Posted December 11, 2012 As crazy as this sounds....I wonder if the NAO west ridging retros all the way to the Pacific setting up a nice EPO? Cahir's ridge is up and a nice cross polar feed would make things bitterly cold here I think if that happened. Between Monday of next week and that event (if it occurs), we're heading onto some stale Labatts awaiting the shipment of Stoli. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dsnowx53 Posted December 11, 2012 Share Posted December 11, 2012 While true that the temp gradient will not be the greatest, is it really fair to say that storms will be weaker as result in this pattern? We have a blocked up flow with some runs showing these bowling ball vorts hitting the warm atlantic...was lack of great cold air up north/great baroclinicity a detriment during February 9-10, Feb 15 and Feb 23-27 events in 2010 (That is just an example being used here, I am obviously not forecasting a period like this)...Im asking for a meteorological answer and not one motivated by how you guys got screwed in that month lol Yes. It's definitely not a gradient pattern after the Dec 16 system, but there are still ways to generate strong storms when you have such blocking to amplify and slow down the flow. That being said, Forky has a point. It's not a gradient pattern, and there is no strong thermal gradient. But other features in the pattern can still produce a good storm. We just don't have the thermal gradient working for us, and it's something to keep in mind. Eduggs also brings up a good point about the ocean. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
toronto blizzard Posted December 11, 2012 Share Posted December 11, 2012 Primary into OH Valley 174hr...redevelopment off the Mid Atl coast 180-186. Then a sub 1000mb low moving NE inside the BM. Pretty juiced with QPF for the ec ens being that far out. Many closed sfc isobars too...it almost looks like a deterministic solution. Are they good for here? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwinter23 Posted December 11, 2012 Share Posted December 11, 2012 So are we back on for the Chris storm? The day 10 euro suite is beautiful and scary all at the same time. It looks like it is itching to torch once this convoluted mess gets cleared out. But not to fear, a total stratospheric PV destruction seems inevitable for January. All systems are a go for an event or multiple ones in the time frame! As tip mentions above, so many waves and blocks to worry about..the 12z euro trended to a wide right with the storm on the 19th after tracking over chicago last night...should be fun to predict I see what you are saying with it looking ready to torch afterwards. My initial thinking is that this block will likely have a longer stay/influence, perhaps lasting into the new year..but that is primarily off of the fact that they tend to last for a solid period once they form, and models tend to break them down too quickly...However, is this an exception because of what you just said in this being a bootleg type of block, downstream from the departing PV? Or do we keep seeing waves undercutting through the new year? Either way I'd guess there would likely still be some warm/torchy type days in between any waves undercutting the block post- day 10 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dsnowx53 Posted December 11, 2012 Share Posted December 11, 2012 I don't mean to belittle the NAO and its possible influence but there are multiple ways to get a plus anomaly somewhere. What we are calling a west-based -NAO, which it is, seems like the downstream ridging from the exiting PV-West Canadian trough. It's not exactly the classic way you get a west-based -NAO; but, it can still produce the proper high placement and dampening of the jet stream to get a coastal storm track. Do you think the fact that it formed this way, instead of the more traditional way was kind of a way to get "around" the conflicting stratospheric signals? I was definitely a bit skeptical of the west based NAO at first, but it definitely seems like it's moving up on all of the guidance. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dsnowx53 Posted December 11, 2012 Share Posted December 11, 2012 All systems are a go for an event or multiple ones in the time frame! As tip mentions above, so many waves and blocks to worry about..the 12z euro trended to a wide right with the storm on the 19th after tracking over chicago last night...should be fun to predict I see what you are saying with it looking ready to torch afterwards. My initial thinking is that this block will likely have a longer stay/influence, perhaps lasting into the new year..but that is primarily off of the fact that they tend to last for a solid period once they form, and models tend to break them down too quickly...However, is this an exception because of what you just said in this being a bootleg type of block, downstream from the departing PV? I'm hoping the blocking lasts into the New Year, then the pattern gets ready to torch for the 2nd week of January (I'll be at the AMS conference from Jan 7-11 lol), and then we get the complete pattern reshuffling/reversal after that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowMan Posted December 11, 2012 Share Posted December 11, 2012 When someone says the storm is a bowling ball what does that mean? Light to moderate snow for a long duration? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
radarman Posted December 11, 2012 Share Posted December 11, 2012 When someone says the storm is a bowling ball what does that mean? Light to moderate snow for a long duration? Generally a closed low at H5 that barrels west to east knocking down any ridging in front of it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwinter23 Posted December 11, 2012 Share Posted December 11, 2012 Yes. It's definitely not a gradient pattern after the Dec 16 system, but there are still ways to generate strong storms when you have such blocking to amplify and slow down the flow. That being said, Forky has a point. It's not a gradient pattern, and there is no strong thermal gradient. But other features in the pattern can still produce a good storm. We just don't have the thermal gradient working for us, and it's something to keep in mind. Eduggs also brings up a good point about the ocean. Yeah I'm certainly not disagreeing or saying forky is wrong here..just simply playing devil's advocate and siting feb 2010 for a stale airmass/bowling ball galore pattern that produced strong low pressures... Do you think the fact that it formed this way, instead of the more traditional way was kind of a way to get "around" the conflicting stratospheric signals? I was definitely a bit skeptical of the west based NAO at first, but it definitely seems like it's moving up on all of the guidance. In my post above i was stating how during last week, the gfs started keying on a canadian warming in the stratosphere, behind the vortex swinging into siberia..so that development progressed up to this point in the forecast and now does support this ridging in the west based regions (as the vortex is not sitting over the north-atlantic anymore...the cause for skepticism last week). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
icebreaker5221 Posted December 11, 2012 Share Posted December 11, 2012 So are we back on for the Chris storm? The day 10 euro suite is beautiful and scary all at the same time. It looks like it is itching to torch once this convoluted mess gets cleared out. But not to fear, a total stratospheric PV destruction seems inevitable for January. Much more on the op than on the ensembles. So in the mean time, let's be optimistic and consider the op an outlier. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted December 11, 2012 Share Posted December 11, 2012 Been a while since we had a bowling ball Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted December 11, 2012 Share Posted December 11, 2012 Let's get that red sh*t at the top closer.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted December 11, 2012 Share Posted December 11, 2012 FAIRBANKS PAFA GFSX MOS GUIDANCE 12/11/2012 1200 UTC FHR 24 36| 48 60| 72 84| 96 108|120 132|144 156|168 180|192 WED 12| THU 13| FRI 14| SAT 15| SUN 16| MON 17| TUE 18|WED CLIMO N/X -5 10| 4 13|-14 -6|-30 -29|-39 -25|-40 -27|-33 -21|-27-15 2 TMP 1 5| 10 7| -7 -10|-23 -33|-32 -29|-33 -30|-26 -25|-21 DPT -3 3| 7 5|-10 -11|-27 -38|-37 -34|-38 -32|-31 -30|-25 WND 1 1| 0 0| 0 1| 1 2| 2 0| 0 0| 1 1| 1 P12 11 55| 52 31| 11 14| 29 17| 6 4| 6 11| 10 15| 11 21 24 P24 55| 70| 22| 29| 9| 11| 15| 32 Q12 0 2| 1 1| 0 0| 1 0| 0 0| 0 0| | Q24 2| 2| 0| 0| 0| 0| | PZP 0 2| 2 1| 0 0| 0 0| 0 0| 0 0| 0 0| 0 PSN 100 98| 92 95| 99 100|100 100|100 100| 96 100|100 100|100 PRS 0 0| 7 4| 0 0| 0 0| 0 0| 0 0| 0 0| 0 TYP S S| S S| S S| S S| S S| S S| S S| S SNW 4| 2| 0| 0| 0| 0| | Not surprising, Fairbanks with a ridiculously cold forecast in the MOS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 11, 2012 Share Posted December 11, 2012 Let's get that red sh*t at the top closer.... Yes, But not over us....... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.