40/70 Benchmark Posted December 11, 2012 Share Posted December 11, 2012 The two largest changes we've seen in the modeling in the past 5-6 days is the NAO block actually getting pushed all the way to Hudson Bay...we first saw this on the GEFS but it wasn't consistent and the Euro ensembles didn't want to quite go that aggressive. Well its almost certain to happen now. The other difference is the flattening of the Aleutian ridge helped in part by the retrograding vortex that travels N of AK on its way to Siberia. This shuts off that frigid pipeline we had into a large chunk of NW Canada. So this is why after the first storm threat this upcoming weekend, the arctic air will be scarce nearby. It doesn't mean we can't get snow threats because the polar airmass is still cold enough at least for the time being...but you definitely want to see a return to the Bering/AK ridging at some point to refuel the source regions. And more modified airmasses certainly favor the interior areas and northern regions. We get another Dec '96 mini me, and I'm gonna lose it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorEaster27 Posted December 11, 2012 Share Posted December 11, 2012 The two largest changes we've seen in the modeling in the past 5-6 days is the NAO block actually getting pushed all the way to Hudson Bay...we first saw this on the GEFS but it wasn't consistent and the Euro ensembles didn't want to quite go that aggressive. Well its almost certain to happen now. The other difference is the flattening of the Aleutian ridge helped in part by the retrograding vortex that travels N of AK on its way to Siberia. This shuts off that frigid pipeline we had into a large chunk of NW Canada. So this is why after the first storm threat this upcoming weekend, the arctic air will be scarce nearby. It doesn't mean we can't get snow threats because the polar airmass is still cold enough at least for the time being...but you definitely want to see a return to the Bering/AK ridging at some point to refuel the source regions. And more modified airmasses certainly favor the interior areas and northern regions. well said, if the NAO block doesn't develop as far west as now forecasted...its a torch pattern. Even with the block its a psuedo gradient pattern with Canada cut off from a fresh supply of cold air. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 11, 2012 Share Posted December 11, 2012 well said, if the NAO block doesn't develop as far west as now forecasted...its a torch pattern. Even with the block its a psuedo gradient pattern with Canada cut off from a fresh supply of cold air. The NAO west is nearly a lock...like the flattening of the western ridge. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 11, 2012 Share Posted December 11, 2012 We get another Dec '96 mini me, and I'm gonna lose it. Well we could get one...we could also get a storm that you are perfectly cold enough in. The Dec '96 storm was also 2 weeks earlier...that probably didn't help with the CF. I'd worry about Sunday's threat first. That one actually has a classic gradient look to it with an arctic high to our north...the last arctic high we may see for a little while. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted December 11, 2012 Author Share Posted December 11, 2012 I thought Forky brought up a valid point. One caveat, the thermal contrast from the ocean gulf stream which is pretty close by and the decently cold airmass depicted by the Euro plus the 5h cold pool can be enough to set up a strong storm. Miller B then a bowling ball? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ace0927 Posted December 11, 2012 Share Posted December 11, 2012 And this one is starting to as well as we get more influx from posters from that region putting in there 2 cents that are not worth 1 the post- was insta-deleted...i'm not sure how you were able to respond to it so quickly! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted December 11, 2012 Share Posted December 11, 2012 it's not like the air mass is roasting. it's plenty cold. i'd like to see a bit more arctic intrusion for the purposes of my own backyard but that ridge west of Greenland and near normal air over the conus this time of year will work. this isn't DCA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted December 11, 2012 Share Posted December 11, 2012 the post- was insta-deleted...i'm not sure how you were able to respond to it so quickly! Ace, this is the New England forum. We're sharp muthufukkas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted December 11, 2012 Author Share Posted December 11, 2012 it's not like the air mass is roasting. it's plenty cold. i'd like to see a bit more arctic intrusion for the purposes of my own backyard but that ridge west of Greenland and near normal air over the conus this time of year will work. this isn't DCA. Yes indeed Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SJonesWX Posted December 11, 2012 Share Posted December 11, 2012 I wouldn't mind having this storm speed up a little to a Sunday - Sunday N event ... I'm flying into Logan Monday afternoon. i would prefer it to be late sun to monday, as i fly into MHT sunday afternoon Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Go Kart Mozart Posted December 11, 2012 Share Posted December 11, 2012 it's not like the air mass is roasting. it's plenty cold. i'd like to see a bit more arctic intrusion for the purposes of my own backyard but that ridge west of Greenland and near normal air over the conus this time of year will work. this isn't DCA. You beat me to the punch. I would comment that the nights are long and Quebec is snow-covered. My experience tells me that the models tend to underrate the depth and mass of the home-grown cold air at this forecast range. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 11, 2012 Share Posted December 11, 2012 it's not like the air mass is roasting. it's plenty cold. i'd like to see a bit more arctic intrusion for the purposes of my own backyard but that ridge west of Greenland and near normal air over the conus this time of year will work. this isn't DCA. Yeah....I'd be more concerned about the air mass if we let this thing spin in the washing machine for nearly month like we did in Feb 2010...a week or two of that air getting cut off is not going to make it a hostile air mass. It starts off decently cold up there with the high this weekend. That is why it is encouraging to see the Aleutian ridge grow once again in the long range...we'd probably start over-recycling this air mass if we didn't. We definitely won't be seeing any thermal gradients like Jan '05 though, lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ace0927 Posted December 11, 2012 Share Posted December 11, 2012 Ace, this is the New England forum. We're sharp muthufukkas. i usually try to just lurk here...lots of educational stuff going on in this sub-forum from some very knowledgeable people... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 11, 2012 Share Posted December 11, 2012 Well we could get one...we could also get a storm that you are perfectly cold enough in. The Dec '96 storm was also 2 weeks earlier...that probably didn't help with the CF. I'd worry about Sunday's threat first. That one actually has a classic gradient look to it with an arctic high to our north...the last arctic high we may see for a little while. Very true. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 11, 2012 Share Posted December 11, 2012 You beat me to the punch. I would comment that the nights are long and Quebec is snow-covered. My experience tells me that the models tend to underrate the depth and mass of the home-grown cold air at this forecast range. Yeah that wouldn't look so good in late February...December isn't as bad for a recycled Quebec airmass. I wouldn't want to keep playing that game though all winter...because you won't get away with it. In short intervals you can deal with it though like the first 10 days of January 2009 we were using a huge west based -NAO to offset an awful PAC....before it flipped on us and became favorable. Same with Feb 1969 at times. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 11, 2012 Share Posted December 11, 2012 the post- was insta-deleted...i'm not sure how you were able to respond to it so quickly! Ace, this is the New England forum. We're sharp muthufukkas. this.......... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted December 11, 2012 Share Posted December 11, 2012 Yeah....I'd be more concerned about the air mass if we let this thing spin in the washing machine for nearly month like we did in Feb 2010...a week or two of that air getting cut off is not going to make it a hostile air mass. It starts off decently cold up there with the high this weekend. That is why it is encouraging to see the Aleutian ridge grow once again in the long range...we'd probably start over-recycling this air mass if we didn't. We definitely won't be seeing any thermal gradients like Jan '05 though, lol. right. that air mass was essentially spent and almost had marine contamination it had retrograded so much. you don't want it to hang on for too long but it would be fine for a short stay - especially this time of year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eduggs Posted December 11, 2012 Share Posted December 11, 2012 The GEFS are really warm. They have been trending that way for a few runs in a row now. The op is one of the coldest members. The Euro and GFS have moved enough towards each other that there is at least basic agreement now. The bad is that the primary looks pretty far NW, the good is that there should be half decent low level cold. I would guess more ice than snow with the Euro across interior SNE. Looks much better for snow north of the Ma border at this point. With multiple shortwaves in the flow this will jump around some more. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted December 11, 2012 Share Posted December 11, 2012 this should have easily been a KU for bos but the north side had crappy mid level frontogenesis... all the lift was to the SW near bwi Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted December 11, 2012 Share Posted December 11, 2012 I thought Forky brought up a valid point. One caveat, the thermal contrast from the ocean gulf stream which is pretty close by and the decently cold airmass depicted by the Euro plus the 5h cold pool can be enough to set up a strong storm. Miller B then a bowling ball? LOL, yeah not sure what just happened. Valid meteorological points have to be couched so we don't hurt sensitive weenies? These first couple aren't blockbusters but that doesn't mean we are prohibited from seeing good snows. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted December 11, 2012 Share Posted December 11, 2012 this should have easily been a KU for bos but the north side had crappy mid level frontogenesis... all the lift was to the SW near bwi 19" worth.....and I've paid the price ever since........ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted December 11, 2012 Author Share Posted December 11, 2012 this should have easily been a KU for bos but the north side had crappy mid level frontogenesis... all the lift was to the SW near bwi Jerrys elephant was farting for weeks by then though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Miser Posted December 11, 2012 Share Posted December 11, 2012 this should have easily been a KU for bos but it was more like a F.U.? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted December 11, 2012 Share Posted December 11, 2012 This ought to chap some arses ... Beyond the NY fan base objections, maybe we can get a snow game or two over the next couple of weeks like the old days, too 1 Patriots 10-3 It seems like old times. Tom Brady is looking like the front-runner for MVP, and the Patriots are looking like the favorite to win the Super Bowl. (Hensley) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Torchey Posted December 11, 2012 Share Posted December 11, 2012 47/31 mostly cloudy Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted December 11, 2012 Author Share Posted December 11, 2012 Great regular season team. Go Giants. Cold pool ULLs inherently are thermal contrast machines. Anyway I like the Miller B look before we look forward to that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted December 11, 2012 Share Posted December 11, 2012 As noted by many over the weekend, weenies doing swan dies had premature ejaculation. The pattern is going according to form as progged by our best mets on the bb over the past weeks. And going forward it's encouraging as well as the Pacific pieces are moving so as not to screw us long term. That said...it all has to come to be. Lots of teams in the red zone but fail to score. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ericnh Posted December 11, 2012 Share Posted December 11, 2012 euro gives northey mass northward 4 to 8 inches of snow sunday into monday.which is perfect for me! while gfs is just 2-5. hey at least we have a storm on the map with snow! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwinter23 Posted December 11, 2012 Share Posted December 11, 2012 if there was more baroclinicity in feb 2010, the storm on the 10th probably would have hit new england and the late month storm would have dumped 3' on nyc I will throw you a bone with the lack of new england precip in the 9th to 10th event ...but that storm dumped prolific amounts of qpf on nyc into the mid-atl in the form of 1-2 feet of snow, and was a bomb in the 970s (was modelled into the 960s at times as well)... the late feb event was a precip bomb too in the 970s...so sure it could have been colder and produced better snow ratios in NYC for the late feb event, but this is a moot point....my original point is that its not fair to say storms in this pattern should trend weaker just because the temp gradient isnt amazing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted December 11, 2012 Share Posted December 11, 2012 Great regular season team. Go Giants. Cold pool ULLs inherently are thermal contrast machines. Anyway I like the Miller B look before we look forward to that. ah ha - the first of a arses to have been officially chapped. j/k Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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