Clinch Leatherwood Posted December 11, 2012 Share Posted December 11, 2012 I like the fact that the high heights return in the high Arctic by d10 albeit on the operational model. So we have a chance it seems to get much colder beyond the d10 period if its close to right. D6: D10: An old pro we both knew well called that the double breasted pattern. All kidding aside it's usually very good for SNE Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted December 11, 2012 Share Posted December 11, 2012 Look at how the temp anomalies have decreased in the 6-10 day range. 7-9C 2 days ago..2-4C last night...about 0C on this latest run...all courtesy of the big -NAO. Still way far out, so that trend could easily reverse. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted December 11, 2012 Share Posted December 11, 2012 I like the fact that the high heights return in the high Arctic by d10 albeit on the operational model. So we have a chance it seems to get much colder beyond the d10 period if its close to right. D6: D10: Colder the better bring that ish on Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 11, 2012 Share Posted December 11, 2012 The first threat is most definitely a gradient pattern that is leftover from a piece of arctic air that escapes SE before the PAC cuts off...you can see the airmass leading into the D5 threat. What forms after this first threat though on the maps that Nick (OSUmet) showed is definitely different. A west based block with a bottled up PAC not re-supplying the cold air to central/southern Canada. So we'd be using some marginal air masses. Somes you can get away with it if the NAO is in the right spot like Feb '69. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SouthCoastMA Posted December 11, 2012 Share Posted December 11, 2012 Pistol Pete a bit too premature on his brown christmas prediction? If anything, the odds look the same, or better than normal for BOS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 11, 2012 Share Posted December 11, 2012 The first threat is most definitely a gradient pattern that is leftover from a piece of arctic air that escapes SE before the PAC cuts off...you can see the airmass leading into the D5 threat. What forms after this first threat though on the maps that Nick (OSUmet) showed is definitely different. A west based block with a bottled up PAC not re-supplying the cold air to central/southern Canada. So we'd be using some marginal air masses. Somes you can get away with it if the NAO is in the right spot like Feb '69. I'm having Dec 1996 nightmares. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted December 11, 2012 Share Posted December 11, 2012 baroclinicity across the east is awful during the blocking period Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted December 11, 2012 Share Posted December 11, 2012 baroclinicity across the east is awful during the blocking period weaker storms should be the theme for the next several days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eduggs Posted December 11, 2012 Share Posted December 11, 2012 Look at how the temp anomalies have decreased in the 6-10 day range. 7-9C 2 days ago..2-4C last night...about 0C on this latest run...all courtesy of the big -NAO. Still way far out, so that trend could easily reverse. Great to see that steady trend. Really nice job if that's what you were expecting to see in the modeling. Just a minor comment... I think it can be misleading to say changes in modeled temp anomalies are courtesy, or caused, by the modeled NAO state. Both the anomalies and the NAO are caused by the same thing. That's why they are so well correlated. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted December 11, 2012 Share Posted December 11, 2012 weaker storms should be the theme for the next several days. Yeah... prolonged periods of off again, on again precip. Nothing to exciting at this point, but better than the South Carolina winter we have had so far Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
leo1000 Posted December 11, 2012 Share Posted December 11, 2012 Yeah its funny how it morphed into that...thanks one to the obscene retrograding of the NAO block which we were skeptical of at first. Then secondly the retrograding of the vortex north of AK which at least temporarily prevents arctic air from pushing south. But given the climo of mid December and the position of the high pressure in Quebec...it will probably still be a snow gradient pattern. Also, for that first event, it actually is pretty cold even compared to climo up in S Quebec. Is it going to be a good snow gradient pattern for Nova Scotia Canada too?. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted December 11, 2012 Share Posted December 11, 2012 Great to see that steady trend. Really nice job if that's what you were expecting to see in the modeling. Just a minor comment... I think it can be misleading to say changes in modeled temp anomalies are courtesy, or caused, by the modeled NAO state. Both the anomalies and the NAO are caused by the same thing. That's why they are so well correlated. of course. it's all one system. but if we don't define these terms, we can't talk about them. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted December 11, 2012 Share Posted December 11, 2012 Great to see that steady trend. Really nice job if that's what you were expecting to see in the modeling. Just a minor comment... I think it can be misleading to say changes in modeled temp anomalies are courtesy, or caused, by the modeled NAO state. Both the anomalies and the NAO are caused by the same thing. That's why they are so well correlated. and what would that be? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
danstorm Posted December 11, 2012 Share Posted December 11, 2012 Great to see that steady trend. Really nice job if that's what you were expecting to see in the modeling. Just a minor comment... I think it can be misleading to say changes in modeled temp anomalies are courtesy, or caused, by the modeled NAO state. Both the anomalies and the NAO are caused by the same thing. That's why they are so well correlated. Eh, not necessarily... the same NAO state can have different impacts on the temperature fields, though they are fairly well correlated. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted December 11, 2012 Share Posted December 11, 2012 baroclinicity across the east is awful during the blocking period Forky, take a break with the drive by posts. You're welcome to engage in the discussion but this trolling has to stop., Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted December 11, 2012 Author Share Posted December 11, 2012 Sammy yep I am liking those analogs understanding that they are a snapshot in time. There was a great MA to SNE storm at the end of Dec 1970. What is a common denominator of the analogs is a strong closed ULL. Hopefully it produces. Euro at 192 is almost there. Odds of a KU are not zero in that setup. Interesting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Torchey Posted December 11, 2012 Share Posted December 11, 2012 I know sultginxy is salivating about this nao block, brings back fond memories of 10-11. Great set of runs, good luck to all. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eduggs Posted December 11, 2012 Share Posted December 11, 2012 baroclinicity across the east is awful during the blocking period Looks fine to me. Obviously briefly lower in the wake of coastal lows, but otherwise fairly high baroclinicity. Enhanced by relatively warm ocean temps. A stormy pattern is by definition highly baroclinic. No other place in the country has as good an area of baroclinicity as the east coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwinter23 Posted December 11, 2012 Share Posted December 11, 2012 weaker storms should be the theme for the next several days. baroclinicity across the east is awful during the blocking period While true that the temp gradient will not be the greatest, is it really fair to say that storms will be weaker as result in this pattern? We have a blocked up flow with some runs showing these bowling ball vorts hitting the warm atlantic...was lack of great cold air up north/great baroclinicity a detriment during February 9-10, Feb 15 and Feb 23-27 events in 2010 (That is just an example being used here, I am obviously not forecasting a period like this)...Im asking for a meteorological answer and not one motivated by how you guys got screwed in that month lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted December 11, 2012 Share Posted December 11, 2012 Forky, take a break with the drive by posts. You're welcome to engage in the discussion but this trolling has to stop., all i'm saying is that there's not much of a temp gradient to support strong systems. the pac setup is killing chances for unmodified polar air to make it into the US Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Alpha5 Posted December 11, 2012 Share Posted December 11, 2012 While true that the temp gradient will not be the greatest, is it really fair to say that storms will be weaker as result in this pattern? We have a blocked up flow with some runs showing these bowling ball vorts hitting the warm atlantic...was lack of great cold air up north/great baroclinicity a detriment during February 9-10, Feb 15 and Feb 23-27 events in 2010 (That is just an example being used here, I am obviously not forecasting a period like this)...Im asking for a meteorological answer and not one motivated by how you guys got screwed in that month lol Good point. It is still a bit far out, but if H5 is being modeled correctly, than it should not be that hard to get a medium sized storm with a low in the 990's or better. WHile we dont have a true arctic airmass, the orientation of the 50/50 may play a pivotal role in keeping things cold throughout the region. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 11, 2012 Share Posted December 11, 2012 the NYC threads are usually unbearable... And this one is starting to as well as we get more influx from posters from that region putting in there 2 cents that are not worth 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted December 11, 2012 Share Posted December 11, 2012 While true that the temp gradient will not be the greatest, is it really fair to say that storms will be weaker as result in this pattern? We have a blocked up flow with some runs showing these bowling ball vorts hitting the warm atlantic...was lack of great cold air up north/great baroclinicity a detriment during February 9-10, Feb 15 and Feb 23-27 events in 2010 (That is just an example being used here, I am obviously not forecasting a period like this)...Im asking for a meteorological answer and not one motivated by how you guys got screwed in that month lol if there was more baroclinicity in feb 2010, the storm on the 10th probably would have hit new england and the late month storm would have dumped 3' on nyc Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 11, 2012 Share Posted December 11, 2012 The two largest changes we've seen in the modeling in the past 5-6 days is the NAO block actually getting pushed all the way to Hudson Bay...we first saw this on the GEFS but it wasn't consistent and the Euro ensembles didn't want to quite go that aggressive. Well its almost certain to happen now. The other difference is the flattening of the Aleutian ridge helped in part by the retrograding vortex that travels N of AK on its way to Siberia. This shuts off that frigid pipeline we had into a large chunk of NW Canada. So this is why after the first storm threat this upcoming weekend, the arctic air will be scarce nearby. It doesn't mean we can't get snow threats because the polar airmass is still cold enough at least for the time being...but you definitely want to see a return to the Bering/AK ridging at some point to refuel the source regions. And more modified airmasses certainly favor the interior areas and northern regions. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 11, 2012 Share Posted December 11, 2012 Kind of funny to see the weenie posts from Saturday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eduggs Posted December 11, 2012 Share Posted December 11, 2012 of course. it's all one system. but if we don't define these terms, we can't talk about them. No problem with the terms of their definitions. My problem is with correlation vs. causation. The NAO doesn't actually cause anything. But even if you want to loosely treat it as a causal entitiy, which has become almost the convention, a future modeled NAO certainly can't cause interim changes in weather patterns. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 11, 2012 Share Posted December 11, 2012 The two largest changes we've seen in the modeling in the past 5-6 days is the NAO block actually getting pushed all the way to Hudson Bay...we first saw this on the GEFS but it wasn't consistent and the Euro ensembles didn't want to quite go that aggressive. Well its almost certain to happen now. The other difference is the flattening of the Aleutian ridge helped in part by the retrograding vortex that travels N of AK on its way to Siberia. This shuts off that frigid pipeline we had into a large chunk of NW Canada. So this is why after the first storm threat this upcoming weekend, the arctic air will be scarce nearby. It doesn't mean we can't get snow threats because the polar airmass is still cold enough at least for the time being...but you definitely want to see a return to the Bering/AK ridging at some point to refuel the source regions. And more modified airmasses certainly favor the interior areas and northern regions. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwinter23 Posted December 11, 2012 Share Posted December 11, 2012 Great to see that steady trend. Really nice job if that's what you were expecting to see in the modeling. Just a minor comment... I think it can be misleading to say changes in modeled temp anomalies are courtesy, or caused, by the modeled NAO state. Both the anomalies and the NAO are caused by the same thing. That's why they are so well correlated. The correlation is far from perfect and the extent/severity of cold air involved can be highly variable, depending on whats available in Canada before the block moves into the -NAO state..IE: the cold air retreats out of canada before the west nao forms, and cuts off the potential influx of further true arctic air. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted December 11, 2012 Share Posted December 11, 2012 Forky, take a break with the drive by posts. You're welcome to engage in the discussion but this trolling has to stop., it's a perfectly legitimate meteorological thing to say...the gradient is reduced due to decreased amount of cold air in Canada from the +EPO/poor Pacfic. There's plenty of pro-snow optimistic around here to counteract Forky's presence. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted December 11, 2012 Share Posted December 11, 2012 all i'm saying is that there's not much of a temp gradient to support strong systems. the pac setup is killing chances for unmodified polar air to make it into the US And I don't necessarily disagree with that point for the initial progged wave for this weekend. Next week, who knows. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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