OKpowdah Posted December 11, 2012 Share Posted December 11, 2012 I wouldn't mind having this storm speed up a little to a Sunday - Sunday N event ... I'm flying into Logan Monday afternoon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
radarman Posted December 11, 2012 Share Posted December 11, 2012 Whiff on storm 2 at h168. Pretty flat trough though...plenty of time. I'm a little confused... Not that the details matter, but at 144 hours we have a weak (2nd) low in good position for much of SNE with (the first) bombing low near 50/50. At 168 we have what appears to be the same (2nd) low (?) drifting slowly SE, basically blocked. Doesn't really show the inverted trough look either. But not sure that qualifies as a whiff if we all get decent snow beforehand. Then almost a Miller A brewing by day 7. -edit meh, nevermind it's irrelevent. Pattern looks solid Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted December 11, 2012 Share Posted December 11, 2012 I wouldn't mind having this storm speed up a little to a Sunday - Sunday N event ... I'm flying into Logan Monday afternoon. It would be nice for the peeps with Patriots tix as well. Something to track besides torches for a little while at least Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 11, 2012 Share Posted December 11, 2012 I wouldn't mind having this storm speed up a little to a Sunday - Sunday N event ... I'm flying into Logan Monday afternoon. So you are the one that's bringing it east for us Sam, Cool Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKpowdah Posted December 11, 2012 Share Posted December 11, 2012 So you are the one that's bringing it east for us Sam, Cool I'm trying my best! Looks like Mother Nature has a nice welcome home party planned for me ... if she could just let my flight land first lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 11, 2012 Share Posted December 11, 2012 I'm a little confused... Not that the details matter, but at 144 hours we have a weak (2nd) low in good position for much of SNE with (the first) bombing low near 50/50. At 168 we have what appears to be the same (2nd) low (?) drifting slowly SE, basically blocked. Doesn't really show the inverted trough look either. But not sure that qualifies as a whiff if we all get decent snow beforehand. Then almost a Miller A brewing by day 7. -edit meh, nevermind it's irrelevent. Pattern looks solid There is a pretty big difference from 0z to 12z out west that's having an effect, But this far out we have the players on the map and good enough for me right now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmanmitch Posted December 11, 2012 Share Posted December 11, 2012 Is anyone else having trouble with the wunderground ECMWF maps? Yes, I am as well. Their accumulated precipitation plots are messed up for some reason. Instead of showing 6-hour accumulated precip, they're showing the total precip from the period from hour 00 to the ending hour. Either they inadvertently broke something in their code, or perhaps more likely, ECMWF may have changed how the QPF data is formatted in the grids so their scripts need to be tweaked. I may try to find a way to contact them, as I very much appreciate the free ECMWF QPF data. The GFS plots look fine. While I like the upcoming pattern in terms of overall potential, I'm not ready to get too excited yet. A lot can go wrong...too little cold air, low moves too far offshore, etc. As Will said in an earlier post, the key is getting an active pattern in place first. The first event looks like it could deliver for elevated, interior sections of SNE and NNE. As for interior MA and N CT, it will be a question of how strong the primary and secondary lows are. A stronger primary could find a way to screw our area as warm air gets ushered in aloft and delivers a sleet fest (assuming the low levels are cold enough) as the secondary tries to get going. Obviously, a faster coastal redevelopment keeps cold air tucked in better and would increase our chances of getting a good snow. Being on the west side of the Berks, I've been effed by these sneaky warm tongues that come in from dying primaries before where I get sleet and the east side gets snow. This is especially true when midlevel temperatures are very marginal and near 0° C. I rarely buy into these GFS Norlun scenarios, especially in this range. If it was 48-72 hours out, then maybe. Meteorologically, a lot of things have to come together just right in order to get an inverted trough that produces significant snowfall in SNE. Norluns are bit more common in NH and ME, but even there they're not exactly "common" per se. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwinter23 Posted December 11, 2012 Share Posted December 11, 2012 That second strom is actually an entire different system added in between the 2 events 00z had...if you follow the shortwave maps you can see that 00z had it too around day 7, but it was more attached to the first system on the surface pressure maps....the third threat on this run by the way trended from chicago to wide right in 1 run....fun times ahead folks lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted December 11, 2012 Share Posted December 11, 2012 Canada is doing fine...but they almost always are by this point. Even in most lousy years...though I recall Dec 2001 was brutal north of us for snwo cover No complaints about that snowpack i can't wait for his careful analysis free from emotional contamination I wouldn't mind having this storm speed up a little to a Sunday - Sunday N event ... I'm flying into Logan Monday afternoon. Jealous. I drive in Wednesday Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted December 11, 2012 Share Posted December 11, 2012 I don't have much time to look at models ever unless a moderate hit is likely do to my schedule but I will say it sounds like there is a lot of bullets being fired in New England's general direction. One is likely to hit one way or another eventually. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
danstorm Posted December 11, 2012 Share Posted December 11, 2012 Whoa, Euro with a much different look. The cutter runs into a brick wall at the line and shreds east (unfortunately, much of the dynamical forcing withers, as well)... however, the resultant trough just keeps on producing... exact details are unknown, of course, and the cold looks a little marginal for my liking (especially down here), but the pattern looks to be shaping up nicely. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted December 11, 2012 Share Posted December 11, 2012 And....CFS is frigid for January and in fact subnormal now for the second half of December Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted December 11, 2012 Share Posted December 11, 2012 And....CFS is frigid for January and in fact subnormal now for the second half of December Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 11, 2012 Share Posted December 11, 2012 Keep an eye on that high pressure for the first event...if it gets as far south as the Euro shows, the boundary layer will cool very well. That is a pretty decent airmass up there, but its just a question of whether we can advect it far enough southward. Verbatim this run it was pretty impressive well into SNE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Miser Posted December 11, 2012 Share Posted December 11, 2012 And....CFS is frigid for January and in fact subnormal now for the second half of December Some one text Kevin this news. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
codfishsnowman Posted December 11, 2012 Share Posted December 11, 2012 great news this afternoon...Buddy and Bella (my two little dogs) are already getting very excited this is the best thread period in quite some time! no toaster baths today... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
danstorm Posted December 11, 2012 Share Posted December 11, 2012 Some one text Kevin this news. He's in here reading everything... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted December 11, 2012 Share Posted December 11, 2012 the "anti-gradient" pattern. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Alpha5 Posted December 11, 2012 Share Posted December 11, 2012 Whoa, Euro with a much different look. The cutter runs into a brick wall at the line and shreds east (unfortunately, much of the dynamical forcing withers, as well)... however, the resultant trough just keeps on producing... exact details are unknown, of course, and the cold looks a little marginal for my liking (especially down here), but the pattern looks to be shaping up nicely. Agreed. I like the look on the mid range models a lot. If we take a look at the 168-200 timeframe, the Euro has major changes at the surface. It goes from cutting a storm over chicago, to developing it over FL and then brings it just OTS. THe key difference here is the progression of the storms ahead of the potential big one. The euro slows down the storm at 150 significantly from its 0z run, possibly due to blocking/ 50/50, which in turn forces the energy for the next storm further south instead of cutting. Obviously its a ways out, but lots of things to watch for going forward. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Alpha5 Posted December 11, 2012 Share Posted December 11, 2012 the "anti-gradient" pattern. Look back at the major blocking periods from 2009-2011. Every time we had a huge block over the DS, northern Maine ends up backing, but SNE and the mid atlantic cash in on big time cold. It all really depends on the location and strength of the block though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted December 11, 2012 Share Posted December 11, 2012 Look back at the major blocking periods from 2009-2011. Every time we had a huge block over the DS, northern Maine ends up backing, but SNE and the mid atlantic cash in on big time cold. It all really depends on the location and strength of the block though. it's not quite that good though...the pacific isn't cooperating this time...and blocking in 2009-2010 was much more extreme. We've heard a lot of gradient pattern talk the last two weeks..but what is shown isn't a gradient pattern. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Alpha5 Posted December 11, 2012 Share Posted December 11, 2012 it's not quite that good though...the pacific isn't cooperating this time...and blocking in 2009-2010 was much more extreme. We've heard a lot of gradient pattern talk the last two weeks..but what is shown isn't a gradient pattern. Im not saying it was as strong as the 09-11 phase, but it certainly is a presence. I think the real battle were going to witness will be between the NAO and the +EPO/-PNA. It seems like we have two conflicting signals atm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 11, 2012 Share Posted December 11, 2012 the "anti-gradient" pattern. Yeah its funny how it morphed into that...thanks one to the obscene retrograding of the NAO block which we were skeptical of at first. Then secondly the retrograding of the vortex north of AK which at least temporarily prevents arctic air from pushing south. But given the climo of mid December and the position of the high pressure in Quebec...it will probably still be a snow gradient pattern. Also, for that first event, it actually is pretty cold even compared to climo up in S Quebec. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwinter23 Posted December 11, 2012 Share Posted December 11, 2012 the "anti-gradient" pattern. Lol yeah talk about a fail...the east pacific ridge retrogrades, the polar vortex escapes to siberia with the coldest air, and the NAO west forms within the next 5 days... One fact that doesnt change in all this is that New England continues to be favored for any frozen precip threats Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted December 11, 2012 Share Posted December 11, 2012 the "anti-gradient" pattern. Not going to lie to you, when I see that graphic I get excited and not because it looks like two large albeit asymmetrical breasts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 11, 2012 Share Posted December 11, 2012 SNE does well with conflicting signals...I'll take it....when everything is favorable, we risk supression. The ma wants that....we don't need it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted December 11, 2012 Share Posted December 11, 2012 I like the fact that the high heights return in the high Arctic by d10 albeit on the operational model. So we have a chance it seems to get much colder beyond the d10 period if its close to right. D6: D10: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted December 11, 2012 Share Posted December 11, 2012 we'll see what the euro ens do, but cautiously-scooter-optimistic right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted December 11, 2012 Share Posted December 11, 2012 NE will do okay if that -NAO really does build like that. It won't be for the reasons that the medium range guys were talking about, however lol. We've basically lost the Pacific for the next 10 days. Basically no AK or Bering Sea ridging. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKpowdah Posted December 11, 2012 Share Posted December 11, 2012 Euro has 3 storms in the mid range Physically unlikely that 3 storms verify or at least verify and actually impact us. Better shot at one moderate storm and one significant storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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