Mr Torchey Posted December 11, 2012 Share Posted December 11, 2012 Looking back at the Euro 3-4 days ago for this wave missing to our SE tonight/Wednesday...cautionary tale of how even the Euro can have 300-700 mile errors at D4/5. The Nam was right there with it, while the gfs op never bit, at least that I can remember. I suspect the Euro might be a little too amped up with some of these solutions time will tell. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted December 11, 2012 Share Posted December 11, 2012 This next event is still an eternity away on guidance. Just recall that event a couple weeks ago we were tracking seemingly forever on the models....went from a Lakes cutter to an NNE special to an ugly scraper that gave interior SNE 1-3" of snow after actually going almost totally out to sea for a couple runs before coming back just enough for a light event. The blocking is decent so I could see this ending up south. However, the natural tendency will be for this event to want to go north, but it will run into that traffic jam. Keep an eye on where that cold boundary extends to. I thought yesterday that high could be pretty cold actually and it appears it has trended colder on guidance. That would probably be funneling down some really dry arctic air on the east side of it. Kind of the same thought at the same time. It's a long ways away and we've seen some pretty substantial shifts in even the best models this year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
radarman Posted December 11, 2012 Share Posted December 11, 2012 Looking back at the Euro 3-4 days ago for this wave missing to our SE tonight/Wednesday...cautionary tale of how even the Euro can have 300-700 mile errors at D4/5. The bias of too slow, overphased, too far west is very consistent though, and it's handling of the 4 corners region is legendary. Probably 4-1 or 5-1 ratio of those types of errors compared to fast, suppressed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted December 11, 2012 Share Posted December 11, 2012 This is funny in a cruel way ... The -NAO effectively blocking cold from getting in here. Fascinating. Although, I have warned in the past not to be too NAO reliant; maybe this is just one example why, but, the NAO is conditionally good for us. If there is preceding cold in the Canadian shield, and then the NAO tanks, a counterbalancing 50/50-type SPV can grab it and send it into the GL-OV-NE, setting the table ... We don't see that below. I am not trying to forecast the middle and extended range with this statement, just a warning to use the NAO at own risk. The EPO is really the cold loading pattern for N/A, but I won't go there for now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted December 11, 2012 Share Posted December 11, 2012 The Nam was right there with it, while the gfs op never bit, at least that I can remember. I suspect the Euro might be a little too amped up with some of these solutions time will tell. It loves to have these lows go to town to our west in the long range... the 19th/20th storm would be a prolific QPF producer it would seem with this strong of a SE flow off the Atlantic. It just turns into a bowling ball that rolls out under New England. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Torchey Posted December 11, 2012 Share Posted December 11, 2012 This is funny in a cruel way ... The -NAO effectively blocking cold from getting in here. Fascinating. Although, I have warned in the past not to be too NAO reliant; maybe this is just one example why, but, the NAO is conditionally good for us. If there is preceding cold in the Canadian shield, and then the NAO tanks, a counterbalancing 50/50-type SPV can grab it and send it into the GL-OV-NE, setting the table ... We don't see that below. I am not trying to forecast the middle and extended range with this statement, just a warning to use the NAO at own risk. The EPO is really the cold loading pattern for N/A, but I won't go there for now. The +epo is hurting chances of the arctic pouring into the conus, but the nao if its west could deliver enough cold for snow especially away from the coast. I don't think we are setting up for any severe cold outbreaks with this +epo, but most if not all just want some frozen. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted December 11, 2012 Share Posted December 11, 2012 This is funny in a cruel way ... The -NAO effectively blocking cold from getting in here. Fascinating. Although, I have warned in the past not to be too NAO reliant; maybe this is just one example why, but, the NAO is conditionally good for us. If there is preceding cold in the Canadian shield, and then the NAO tanks, a counterbalancing 50/50-type SPV can grab it and send it into the GL-OV-NE, setting the table ... We don't see that below. I am not trying to forecast the middle and extended range with this statement, just a warning to use the NAO at own risk. The EPO is really the cold loading pattern for N/A, but I won't go there for now. Good post, Tip. I think that's going to be the main issue going forward for widespread wintery weather where the masses live. New England may be ok because we are getting to that time of year when we don't necessarily need below normal temps to get it to snow, but Mid-Atlantic will definitely have problems. Even a couple days ago the models had this period coming up colder than it looks now, drilling H85 -10C air down into CNE where as now it sort of gets hung up just south of Canada. And with the upcoming storms next week, its not like we are front-loading really cold thicknesses into New England prior to arrival. It actually gets decently warm late this week and then we try to marginally sneak some cold down from the northeast just before the firrst system. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted December 11, 2012 Share Posted December 11, 2012 The +epo is hurting chances of the arctic pouring into the conus, but the nao if its west could deliver enough cold for snow especially away from the coast. I don't think we are setting up for any severe cold outbreaks with this +epo, but most if not all just want some frozen. Pacific drives the bus as always. Sun is out after a 2" plus gully washer down here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted December 11, 2012 Share Posted December 11, 2012 Good post, Tip. I think that's going to be the main issue going forward for widespread wintery weather where the masses live. New England may be ok because we are getting to that time of year when we don't necessarily need below normal temps to get it to snow, but Mid-Atlantic will definitely have problems. Even a couple days ago the models had this period coming up colder than it looks now, drilling H85 -10C air down into CNE where as now it sort of gets hung up just south of Canada. And with the upcoming storms next week, its not like we are front-loading really cold thicknesses into New England prior to arrival. It actually gets decently warm late this week and then we try to marginally sneak some cold down from the northeast just before the firrst system. Dare I ask if there is any snow cover in southern Canada? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 11, 2012 Share Posted December 11, 2012 Dare I ask if there is any snow cover in southern Canada? Canada is doing fine...but they almost always are by this point. Even in most lousy years...though I recall Dec 2001 was brutal north of us for snwo cover Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherMA Posted December 11, 2012 Share Posted December 11, 2012 Channel 7 went from 56 and rain last night to JR throwing out snow numbers this morning and a 38. Classic. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted December 11, 2012 Share Posted December 11, 2012 i keep going back and forth on how i feel about this upcoming 15-20 day stretch of weather. there are certainly reasons for optimism. on-the-other-hand, it's still not how you'd draw it up if you could. certainly good to see actual ridging progged to develop over the DS area and not just an extension of higher heights from ridging further east or a crappy bootleg look. and the west-based block is well agreed upon now and finally getting inside a window of time where it's not as subject to the day-to-day model variations. so overall that should help get more frozen precip going for the SNE crew in one way or another. on the flip side...i hate seeing all the -15 to -20C 850s locked up so far north and west. everything is just kind of stale looking further south. almost spring-like in a way - very marginal at times. i like to see those big cold cP airmasses leaking into the northern tier. helps fuel things and of course on the coastal plain that's a better set-up for getting frozen - this is not nearly as big an issue for areas in C / N NE or higher terrain of Mass but still makes slam dunks a bit more questionable. lots of powerdfreak jackpots or does SNE make out better? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted December 11, 2012 Share Posted December 11, 2012 retrograding -NAO block into the Davis Strait/Hudson Bay region appears to be helping out temperature anomalies a good deal. You can see the positive temp anomalies on the euro ensemble mean dropped considerably from yesterday and the day before to last night. 850 temps are now 2-4C above normal day 6-10 as opposed to 7-9C above normal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted December 11, 2012 Share Posted December 11, 2012 Channel 7 went from 56 and rain last night to JR throwing out snow numbers this morning and a 38. Classic. Seriously? Do they realize it is Tuesday? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chrisrotary12 Posted December 11, 2012 Share Posted December 11, 2012 Very cautiously optimistic about next week. Appears as if we may have the chance for 2 Miller B's. Potential storm number 2 certainly looks more interesting, but I'm not letting my guard down on storm number 1 just yet. We may be able to squeeze something fun out of it in my opinion. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 11, 2012 Share Posted December 11, 2012 i keep going back and forth on how i feel about this upcoming 15-20 day stretch of weather. there are certainly reasons for optimism. on-the-other-hand, it's still not how you'd draw it up if you could. certainly good to see actual ridging progged to develop over the DS area and not just an extension of higher heights from ridging further east or a crappy bootleg look. and the west-based block is well agreed upon now and finally getting inside a window of time where it's not as subject to the day-to-day model variations. so overall that should help get more frozen precip going for the SNE crew in one way or another. on the flip side...i hate seeing all the -15 to -20C 850s locked up so far north and west. everything is just kind of stale looking further south. almost spring-like in a way - very marginal at times. i like to see those big cold cP airmasses leaking into the northern tier. helps fuel things and of course on the coastal plain that's a better set-up for getting frozen - this is not nearly as big an issue for areas in C / N NE or higher terrain of Mass but still makes slam dunks a bit more questionable. lots of powerdfreak jackpots or does SNE make out better? Yeah this pattern is not ideal, esp with that retrograding vortex going north of AK before it goes into Siberia...we can get away with it though with the state of the NAO and the fact that in mid-December, you have at least some cold air being generated in Canada. If that pattern happened in late February, turn out the lights. The Aleutian Ridge builds poleward again eventually on all the ensembles...we'll have to wait for that to happen for those waiting for a vodka cold intrusion. Of course, how far poleward it goes plus other factors will determine just who and how big any cold shot would be. You can see on the anomaly maps how ridiculous that cold pool has been up there...and then as soon as the vortex makes its retrograde track north of AK...the cold air all gets torched away. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted December 11, 2012 Share Posted December 11, 2012 I tend to not expect really cold air in December. I know it happens of course (Christmas 1980 for example). If the Siberian Express waits until January, that is fine. Just get us to 28F...lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted December 11, 2012 Share Posted December 11, 2012 i keep going back and forth on how i feel about this upcoming 15-20 day stretch of weather. there are certainly reasons for optimism. on-the-other-hand, it's still not how you'd draw it up if you could. certainly good to see actual ridging progged to develop over the DS area and not just an extension of higher heights from ridging further east or a crappy bootleg look. and the west-based block is well agreed upon now and finally getting inside a window of time where it's not as subject to the day-to-day model variations. so overall that should help get more frozen precip going for the SNE crew in one way or another. on the flip side...i hate seeing all the -15 to -20C 850s locked up so far north and west. everything is just kind of stale looking further south. almost spring-like in a way - very marginal at times. i like to see those big cold cP airmasses leaking into the northern tier. helps fuel things and of course on the coastal plain that's a better set-up for getting frozen - this is not nearly as big an issue for areas in C / N NE or higher terrain of Mass but still makes slam dunks a bit more questionable. lots of powerdfreak jackpots or does SNE make out better? The ski areas make out better in terms of falling snow but it's a catch 22. If they don't do "really" well and are just marginal on temps with a mish mosh of snow events...places like SR would have been better off at 15-20 degrees and dry making snow. We'll see. Without any real strong storm passages I think even PF is more dependent on synoptic snows. Like you my big hesitancy going forward is the stale strung out west/east appearance of the cool air. I could easily see weak systems running along weak gradients that fail to do much of anything south of the 3 northern states. Yeah this pattern is not ideal, esp with that retrograding vortex going north of AK before it goes into Siberia...we can get away with it though with the state of the NAO and the fact that in mid-December, you have at least some cold air being generated in Canada. If that pattern happened in late February, turn out the lights. The Aleutian Ridge builds poleward again eventually on all the ensembles...we'll have to wait for that to happen for those waiting for a vodka cold intrusion. Of course, how far poleward it goes plus other factors will determine just who and how big any cold shot would be. You can see on the anomaly maps how ridiculous that cold pool has been up there...and then as soon as the vortex makes its retrograde track north of AK...the cold air all gets torched away. Will scientifically peaking what "generates" the cold air in the first place? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Miser Posted December 11, 2012 Share Posted December 11, 2012 Seriously? Do they realize it is Tuesday? Kind of nuts. This will go back and forth for the coming days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted December 11, 2012 Share Posted December 11, 2012 Yeah this pattern is not ideal, esp with that retrograding vortex going north of AK before it goes into Siberia...we can get away with it though with the state of the NAO and the fact that in mid-December, you have at least some cold air being generated in Canada. If that pattern happened in late February, turn out the lights. The Aleutian Ridge builds poleward again eventually on all the ensembles...we'll have to wait for that to happen for those waiting for a vodka cold intrusion. Of course, how far poleward it goes plus other factors will determine just who and how big any cold shot would be. You can see on the anomaly maps how ridiculous that cold pool has been up there...and then as soon as the vortex makes its retrograde track north of AK...the cold air all gets torched away. the good news is it's (highly?) unlikely we will go much longer without having a frozen event in this general geographic region. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
N. OF PIKE Posted December 11, 2012 Share Posted December 11, 2012 "Ullr rewards the pious, flat landers near the cp repent.My old salt neighbor says the animals are busy making shelter for themselves,and that is natures sign. Big Big winter on the doorstep, gonna be making some turns in the backyard soon.". If rev is pelting on sunday while orh is dumping, that is reason enuf to want kev back on , (c u soon rev) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorEastermass128 Posted December 11, 2012 Share Posted December 11, 2012 "Ullr rewards the pious, flat landers near the cp repent.My old salt neighbor says the animals are busy making shelter for themselves,and that is natures sign. Big Big winter on the doorstep, gonna be making some turns in the backyard soon.". If rev is pelting on sunday while orh is dumping, that is reason enuf to want kev back on , (c u soon rev) Blizz is gone? By choice or forced? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted December 11, 2012 Share Posted December 11, 2012 Blizz is gone? By choice or forced? Choice. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted December 11, 2012 Share Posted December 11, 2012 "Ullr rewards the pious, flat landers near the cp repent.My old salt neighbor says the animals are busy making shelter for themselves,and that is natures sign. Big Big winter on the doorstep, gonna be making some turns in the backyard soon.". If rev is pelting on sunday while orh is dumping, that is reason enuf to want kev back on , (c u soon rev) Isn't it that he's just not posting? I don't believe there was any action taken by the site. There was less drama with Brett Favre's 10th un-retiring. It's the freaking weather! It's not like he went on instagram and said he's rotting away not being used by the coach. Animals here are very active still. Very little hand wringing among natures furry creatures. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorEaster27 Posted December 11, 2012 Share Posted December 11, 2012 just no real cold air on the GFS, even with an -NAO Canada is torched with the PV north of AK. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted December 11, 2012 Share Posted December 11, 2012 "Ullr rewards the pious, flat landers near the cp repent.My old salt neighbor says the animals are busy making shelter for themselves,and that is natures sign. Big Big winter on the doorstep, gonna be making some turns in the backyard soon.". If rev is pelting on sunday while orh is dumping, that is reason enuf to want kev back on , (c u soon rev) verbatim? I lost the link Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
N. OF PIKE Posted December 11, 2012 Share Posted December 11, 2012 I hope wachusett can score in the upcoming period, they need the help from mother nature Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowMan Posted December 11, 2012 Share Posted December 11, 2012 Isn't it that he's just not posting? I don't believe there was any action taken by the site. There was less drama with Brett Favre's 10th un-retiring. It's the freaking weather! It's not like he went on instagram and said he's rotting away not being used by the coach. Animals here are very active still. Very little hand wringing among natures furry creatures. I am thinking that he is following...enjoying how all of us are asking for his return and that he would please come back... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted December 11, 2012 Share Posted December 11, 2012 Choice. He just took the bus in for a tune-up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted December 11, 2012 Share Posted December 11, 2012 I hope wachusett can score in the upcoming period, they need the help from mother nature It is ugly over there. I swung by the other day. Looks pathetic. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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