powderfreak Posted December 11, 2012 Share Posted December 11, 2012 Fairly decent concenus so far out in time with a primary heading towards BUF and weakening, with a secondary forming and scooting east near SNE. GGEM usually over amped but has that same idea. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted December 11, 2012 Share Posted December 11, 2012 Yeah--the hits keep on coming. System 1 is really questionable from Mass down--obviouslby the more worrisome the further south and east one goes. Hopefully I can stay on the 'cool enough' side of the line. Might be tough. I really like where you're sitting though! Give it a day or two and the models will be advertising scant qpf for you... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted December 11, 2012 Share Posted December 11, 2012 Wow 6Z gfs is a snow lovers heaven! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted December 11, 2012 Share Posted December 11, 2012 Give it a day or two and the models will be advertising scant qpf for you... LOL--that would be an awesome reaction to witness. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted December 11, 2012 Share Posted December 11, 2012 I locked in the DGEX for this weekend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted December 11, 2012 Share Posted December 11, 2012 I locked in the DGEX for this weekend. Always a wise thing to do. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 11, 2012 Share Posted December 11, 2012 a bit more interest in the potential for what happens after the weekend. suspect weekend ends up mild (who knows) but that system has a chance to turn things better behind it. I agree. I think I'm toast here, but perhaps the second follow up storm has potentia; behind the first one. I hope the first low doesn't become garbage, because then the second low will be right up into SNE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 11, 2012 Share Posted December 11, 2012 Probably the best set of model runs in a long long time, Could be an epic 10 day stretch from the 16th to the 26th up here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted December 11, 2012 Share Posted December 11, 2012 I agree. I think I'm toast here, but perhaps the second follow up storm has potentia; behind the first one. I hope the first low doesn't become garbage, because then the second low will be right up into SNE. Yeah was thinking the same. It needs to get it's stuff together and park to our NNE Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted December 11, 2012 Share Posted December 11, 2012 I agree. I think I'm toast here, but perhaps the second follow up storm has potentia; behind the first one. I hope the first low doesn't become garbage, because then the second low will be right up into SNE. Seems like one way or another we have to take one for the team so lets get it out of the way early...lol. How's Bryce sleeping? When I'm with my sons (probably older than you are) I remember those first days particularly with the oldest when you have no idea what you're doing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Torchey Posted December 11, 2012 Share Posted December 11, 2012 NNE time to shine! meanwhile another grotesquely warm morning here, and not a single below normal day in the next 7 for most of the area in sne, if not all. Through the 10th bos+4.6 bdl+3.6 pvd+5.3 orh+6.6 watertown ny +7.5 syracuse+9.1 fugly. Really hope this snow pans out for the north kingdom! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted December 11, 2012 Share Posted December 11, 2012 NNE time to shine! meanwhile another grotesquely warm morning here, and not a single below normal day in the next 7 for most of the area in sne, if not all. Through the 10th bos+4.6 bdl+3.6 pvd+5.3 orh+6.6 watertown ny +7.5 syracuse+9.1 fugly. Really hope this snow pans out for the north kingdom! PVD put up a +16F yesterday. LOL. ORH +17F Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Torchey Posted December 11, 2012 Share Posted December 11, 2012 PVD put up a +16F yesterday. LOL. ORH +17F Some muted torch, but have to say those overnight runs were extremely encouraging.....we will have to take at least one on the chin possibly two on the coast but there is indeed light at the end of the torchunnel and pretty much as forecast and laid out by all the red taggers here. Ski country is going to be la epic. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted December 11, 2012 Share Posted December 11, 2012 Some muted torch, but have to say those overnight runs were extremely encouraging.....we will have to take at least one on the chin possibly two on the coast but there is indeed light at the end of the torchunnel and pretty much as forecast and laid out by all the red taggers here. Ski country is going to be la epic. Winter started right after T-Day. Epic stretch of it we've had. It's the weather. It's going to do what it wants to do. Why fret over it? The period after this weekend hold promise for Southern New England. I would favor the NNE area for this weekends system. At this time it does not look big but anything up there helps this time of year for the industry. As far as departures, it's going to be difficult to erase these obscene numbers this month. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattlacroix4 Posted December 11, 2012 Share Posted December 11, 2012 Finally something to talk about, exciting few weeks coming Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ice1972 Posted December 11, 2012 Share Posted December 11, 2012 Concerned I'll be drippy sitting at Gillette Stadium Sunday night..... must come south.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted December 11, 2012 Share Posted December 11, 2012 Winter started right after T-Day. Epic stretch of it we've had. It's the weather. It's going to do what it wants to do. Why fret over it? The period after this weekend hold promise for Southern New England. I would favor the NNE area for this weekends system. At this time it does not look big but anything up there helps this time of year for the industry. As far as departures, it's going to be difficult to erase these obscene numbers this month. AWT. Isn't this comparable to last year Dec 1 to 11? This is an epic torch. Looks good where we will have opportunities for 1-2 weeks before the warm pattern reloads between xmas and NYE Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman21 Posted December 11, 2012 Share Posted December 11, 2012 As far as departures, it's going to be difficult to erase these obscene numbers this month. Difficult, but it has happened before. At these levels through the first ten days of any December, there have been two cases of the month ending up negative: ORH in 1951 and BDL in 1916. These two months ended up around half a degree below normal with over a foot of snow in the ORH case, and just over half a foot in the BDL case. Also the biggest turnarounds of all time (the caveat being that each of the four climo sites were AOA their current departures through the first ten days): January 2000 and 1935. January 2000 started off with departures ranging from +12.0 to +12.5 and that month ended up -1.5 to -2.1 with near normal to slightly above normal snowfall. January 1935 featured temperature departures starting off the month in the +6.1 to +9.6 range and finishing -2.3 to -5.8 with 20.1 inches of snow at BDL and 26.7 and 24.4 inches at BOS and PVD respectively. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted December 11, 2012 Share Posted December 11, 2012 Well, hopefully this month will be a tale of two regimes. Even if we just settle back to near normal days 15-31, I am fine with the overall departure for the month being a bit high if the second half is right near average Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Torchey Posted December 11, 2012 Share Posted December 11, 2012 Well, hopefully this month will be a tale of two regimes. Even if we just settle back to near normal days 15-31, I am fine with the overall departure for the month being a bit high if the second half is right near average Snow will cure all warm sins. When the snow falls later this month nobody will ever remember the warmth, the only thing I care about is some white around during the holidays.......the rest is gravy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted December 11, 2012 Share Posted December 11, 2012 OBVIOUSLY...THERE IS PLENTY OF UNCERTAINTY ON THE EXACT TRACK/ STRENGTH/TIMING AND PRECIPITATION TYPES THIS FAR OUT. MODELS SHOW A DECENT HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM ACROSS EASTERN CANADA...WHICH WILL LIKELY SEND ENOUGH COLD AIR INTO NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND FOR SOME WINTER WEATHER. IT REMAINS TO BE SEEN HOW MUCH COLD AIR WILL MAKE IT INTO OUR REGION...BUT THE BEST CHANCE FOR AT LEAST SOME SNOW/ICE WOULD BE ACROSS PORTIONS OF OUR NORTHERN INTERIOR ZONES. CURRENT MODELS WOULD INDICATE THAT IT MAY BE TOO WARM FOR MUCH SNOW ACROSS THE COASTAL PLAIN...ALTHOUGH CERTAINLY WOULD NOT RULE IT OUT AT THIS POINT. KEEP IN MIND...PLENTY OF THINGS CAN AND OFTEN DO CHANGE WITH A FORECAST 5+ DAYS INTO THE FUTURE. BOX sums it up well in this morning's AFD Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 11, 2012 Share Posted December 11, 2012 Well, hopefully this month will be a tale of two regimes. Even if we just settle back to near normal days 15-31, I am fine with the overall departure for the month being a bit high if the second half is right near average We can probably recover some what here as temps for the most part have busted on the low side, It looks like a decent stretch coming up with several possibilities Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted December 11, 2012 Share Posted December 11, 2012 We can probably recover some what here as temps for the most part have busted on the low side, It looks like a decent stretch coming up with several possibilities I was def right on the border of the brutality yesterday. The "cold" really got scoured out imby, while a couple of towns over it was like "what torch" Hopefully you can fire up the sled soon Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
radarman Posted December 11, 2012 Share Posted December 11, 2012 This morning was like the 3rd or 4th time in December with a high temperature between 1-2 AM. Fog all day, never lifting, temps dropping with sunset, followed by a steady warmup continuing past midnight. At least today it's bright out there and I don't feel as though Marquez knocked me out along with Pacquiao, walking around in a disoriented haze. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 11, 2012 Share Posted December 11, 2012 I was def right on the border of the brutality yesterday. The "cold" really got scoured out imby, while a couple of towns over it was like "what torch" Hopefully you can fire up the sled soon We are looking forward to it that's for sure, Temp gradient was amazing yesterday depending on which side you were on right and wrong, We busted low side here as we were locked in at 35F for the day with drizzle, We should drop off here once the front is thru Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Logan11 Posted December 11, 2012 Share Posted December 11, 2012 In Zakopane, Poland now...Tatra range of the Carpathians.. I see I was in an analysis thread before so I'll respond here now. Yeah hope I can bring this cold and snowy European weather home. .. get into EWR on Sunday evening. It would be tough dealing with 40F and 50F weather after weeks of teens and 20's here. About 8 inches of snow on the ground here now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 11, 2012 Share Posted December 11, 2012 In Zakopane, Poland now...Tatra range of the Carpathians.. I see I was in an analysis thread before so I'll respond here now. Yeah hope I can bring this cold and snowy European weather home. .. get into EWR on Sunday evening. It would be tough dealing with 40F and 50F weather after weeks of teens and 20's here. About 8 inches of snow on the ground here now. Enjoy the rest of your trip Rick, Looks like you may be bringing some of winter back home with you Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Miser Posted December 11, 2012 Share Posted December 11, 2012 Concerned I'll be drippy sitting at Gillette Stadium Sunday night..... must come south.... I'll be right there with you ....well, probably not in your section or anything, but in the stadium. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 11, 2012 Share Posted December 11, 2012 This next event is still an eternity away on guidance. Just recall that event a couple weeks ago we were tracking seemingly forever on the models....went from a Lakes cutter to an NNE special to an ugly scraper that gave interior SNE 1-3" of snow after actually going almost totally out to sea for a couple runs before coming back just enough for a light event. The blocking is decent so I could see this ending up south. However, the natural tendency will be for this event to want to go north, but it will run into that traffic jam. Keep an eye on where that cold boundary extends to. I thought yesterday that high could be pretty cold actually and it appears it has trended colder on guidance. That would probably be funneling down some really dry arctic air on the east side of it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted December 11, 2012 Share Posted December 11, 2012 Looking back at the Euro 3-4 days ago for this wave missing to our SE tonight/Wednesday...cautionary tale of how even the Euro can have 300-700 mile errors at D4/5. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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