OceanStWx Posted December 8, 2012 Share Posted December 8, 2012 No issue with discussing potential. I stated my belief that long range forecasting is of poor utility for snowfall forecasting. That's all. People are entitled to disagree. That's the thing, nobody disagrees with what you are saying and nobody is using the long range forecast to forecast snowfall. There has just been discussion that this evolving upper air pattern will provide chances for wintry precipitation within the region. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted December 8, 2012 Share Posted December 8, 2012 No issue with discussing potential. I stated my belief that long range forecasting is of poor utility for snowfall forecasting. That's all. People are entitled to disagree. We'll go back to discussing something else then. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 8, 2012 Share Posted December 8, 2012 Euro ensembles aren't a KU pattern but I think it offers some chances here especially interior and NNE. Some weak blocking by Davis Straits may be enough to try and sneak lows under us. What I don't like is the Aleutian ridge looking a bit flat, but some hints at a +PNA too. Perhaps that is the MJO reflection. I expect a lot of model sways for sure. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 8, 2012 Share Posted December 8, 2012 It has been on other random runs of various models...like a 1-3" type deal after the rain. I actually think it has some merit as an anafrontal setup. May not be much but ending with an inch or two to whiten things up again would be nice, especially after the 2-3" front end snow/sleet should get washed away. GFS has it to but i laugh because the nam always has the weenie qpf amounts Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 8, 2012 Share Posted December 8, 2012 Haven't they looked sweet in the d11-15 range the past 11-15 days? Not in DC lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted December 8, 2012 Share Posted December 8, 2012 We need to break this down as it's getting muddy: Red Taggers = generalized discussion of potential long term weather good and bad. CT Warlock = snow, more snow, piles of snow, cold, snow. I see these posts and it seems that people are confusing board consensus with Kevin's posts. Sure in total # they may form a consensus but for the most part they're coming from 1 person. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted December 8, 2012 Share Posted December 8, 2012 Euro ensembles aren't a KU pattern but I think it offers some chances here especially interior and NNE. Some weak blocking by Davis Straits may be enough to try and sneak lows under us. What I don't like is the Aleutian ridge looking a bit flat, but some hints at a +PNA too. Perhaps that is the MJO reflection. I expect a lot of model sways for sure. Eduggs hates you Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted December 8, 2012 Share Posted December 8, 2012 Euro ensembles aren't a KU pattern but I think it offers some chances here especially interior and NNE. Some weak blocking by Davis Straits may be enough to try and sneak lows under us. What I don't like is the Aleutian ridge looking a bit flat, but some hints at a +PNA too. Perhaps that is the MJO reflection. I expect a lot of model sways for sure. When models are showing a developing MJO wave into phase 1 by D7-D10 and this is your composite 500mb height... may be tough to get big Aleutian ridging lol. Agreed though that we do have potential going forward. I expect many more meltdowns before 12/15. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 8, 2012 Share Posted December 8, 2012 I know weenies get mad at us talking about something improving but then stating it may not be great, but that is the inherent error in Long range. We stated numerous times the caveats to why it might not be great, but it falls on deaf ears sometimes. Same with a crap pattern sometimes working out. It just happens that way sometimes. Just let it ride and if the next two weeks stink, it is what it is....but I don't think it looks bad at all. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 8, 2012 Share Posted December 8, 2012 We need to break this down as it's getting muddy: Red Taggers = generalized discussion of potential long term weather good and bad. CT Warlock = snow, more snow, piles of snow, cold, snow. I see these posts and it seems that people are confusing board consensus with Kevin's posts. Sure in total # they may form a consensus but for the most part they're coming from 1 person. Cut the n0onsense..and stop turning this into a me vs the board thing Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted December 8, 2012 Share Posted December 8, 2012 I think you're misunderstanding the long range discussions too. Yeah... its all we have to talk about right now and most know it is pure speculation. Aside from one main poster that locks everything in sight that has to do with cold/snow, all the majority are doing is just speculating about what could transpire. Its a weather board... that's what its for. No one is issuing "forecasts" per se in these banter/discussion threads and the "thoughts" of mets are always evolving as the model runs evolve. We are pretty much at the mercy of the models at this point, which is why everyone posts the long range ensembles all the time. It gives a clue into the future and hopefully with enough attention one can figure out a trend in there. And no one is really calling for specific long range threats as a forecast... people are just discussing possibilities. For a few days the ECM ensembles call for a -NAO to develop with lower heights over New England and that time frame gets flagged as a potential period for wintery weather. No one is calling for specific amounts. Of course it sometimes works and sometimes doesn't...after 3 straight runs, a model call all the sudden not develop the -NAO and then the whole game changes, so that time frame becomes less likely to see enhanced wintery weather. Folks just discuss it and its interesting to hear all the possibilities... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 8, 2012 Share Posted December 8, 2012 When models are showing a developing MJO wave into phase 1 by D7-D10 and this is your composite 500mb height... may be tough to get big Aleutian ridging lol. Agreed though that we do have potential going forward. I expect many more meltdowns before 12/15. Yeah that's why perhaps models are struggling. Good point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 8, 2012 Share Posted December 8, 2012 Well i can't say much analyzing something on a smart phone, but just my brief look at things. Weenies need to tone down expectations sometimes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted December 8, 2012 Share Posted December 8, 2012 Cut the n0onsense..and stop turning this into a me vs the board thing He is sort of right though. Every "looks decent" post about a D11-D15 setup turns into "epic stretch", "heavy snow", "winter's here". lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dsnowx53 Posted December 8, 2012 Share Posted December 8, 2012 One thing I want to have cleared up about phase 1 of the MJO. It definitely seems like it has more of an effect on the Pacific than the Atlantic, but there definitely seems to be a -NAO signal on the phase 1 correlations, as well. It seems that the increased MJO amplitude also has led to better blocking in the day 11-15 ensembles, as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 8, 2012 Share Posted December 8, 2012 He is sort of right though. Every "looks decent" post about a D11-D15 setup turns into "epic stretch", "heavy snow", "winter's here". lol That is my posting style and my personality. It's not about my forecasts vs everyone else's. It's about having fun, enjoying wx disco, and analyzing opportunities. You take that away, you take away everything that is me Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 8, 2012 Share Posted December 8, 2012 At any rate..I think we are going to see some sort of wave this week. Whether its Tuesday or Wed..there's enough hints out there in the met world and model world to see that something may sneak up the backside Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dsnowx53 Posted December 8, 2012 Share Posted December 8, 2012 With MJO waking up in P1/P2 not surprising to see models shift toward lower heights over Alaska and a popping +PNA. Might be a nice burst of pre-Christmas weather. If we can get something in the gradient pattern 12/15-12/20 that would turn out to be a pretty solid stretch of winter possibilities. Of course if the MJO wave does indeed become stout and starts rounding the bases the torch may cometh between Christmas and New Years. Yeah, although the Dec 19-20 period that some were hinting at might have some potential, I think a few days after that would have more follow up potential, provided the MJO does its thing and reshuffles the Pacific into a +PNA spike. Here's the thing, though. What if the MJO is "fighting" with the Aleutian ridge to flatten it a bit, but then because that feature is still there, but just weaker, the +PNA spike doesn't really materialize downstream? I really hope we get the NAO blocking. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted December 8, 2012 Share Posted December 8, 2012 That is my posting style and my personality. It's not about my forecasts vs everyone else's. It's about having fun, enjoying wx disco, and analyzing opportunities. You take that away, you take away everything that is me You could Cut back on the crazy some though Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eduggs Posted December 8, 2012 Share Posted December 8, 2012 Eduggs hates you Go back and read what I've written instead of sounding like an idiot. I don't mind long range discussion. But as others have said, it's only very general speculation. I you go back and read the old posts since early November, there have been red taggers mentioning two week wintry chances almost daily. We have wintry chances THIS WEEK, never mind next week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 8, 2012 Share Posted December 8, 2012 You could Cut back on the crazy some though I could, but take the Dick away from Jane..and Jane is a boring girl Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eduggs Posted December 8, 2012 Share Posted December 8, 2012 At any rate..I think we are going to see some sort of wave this week. Whether its Tuesday or Wed..there's enough hints out there in the met world and model world to see that something may sneak up the backside It's cool that you at least talk about mid range and short range threats... even if you exaggerate every one. There is some sneaky potential. Low end. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted December 8, 2012 Share Posted December 8, 2012 One thing I want to have cleared up about phase 1 of the MJO. It definitely seems like it has more of an effect on the Pacific than the Atlantic, but there definitely seems to be a -NAO signal on the phase 1 correlations, as well. It seems that the increased MJO amplitude also has led to better blocking in the day 11-15 ensembles, as well. Yeah, although the Dec 19-20 period that some were hinting at might have some potential, I think a few days after that would have more follow up potential, provided the MJO does its thing and reshuffles the Pacific into a +PNA spike. Here's the thing, though. What if the MJO is "fighting" with the Aleutian ridge to flatten it a bit, but then because that feature is still there, but just weaker, the +PNA spike doesn't really materialize downstream? I really hope we get the NAO blocking. Yeah there is some signal for Phase 1/Phase 2 for some blocking... not as strong as the signals in the Pacific. I think you are right about the tropics "fighting" with the Aleutian ridge so in the end you do get a flatter setup with a less pronounced +PNA spike. Probably would result in a milder pattern around here but could certainly produce snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherX Posted December 8, 2012 Share Posted December 8, 2012 Go back and read what I've written instead of sounding like an idiot. I don't mind long range discussion. But as others have said, it's only very general speculation. I you go back and read the old posts since early November, there have been red taggers mentioning two week wintry chances almost daily. We have wintry chances THIS WEEK, never mind next week. Can you identify your location? Zip code, nearest NWS office? You've been asked nicely for this information years....what is the problem? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted December 8, 2012 Share Posted December 8, 2012 It's cool that you at least talk about mid range and short range threats... even if you exaggerate every one. There is some sneaky potential. Low end. People on this forum will spend 4 days talking about a pending snow shower. i have no idea what your point is. But I do wish you would leave. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted December 8, 2012 Author Share Posted December 8, 2012 I should not have posted my analogs gifs. Discussing LR is hazardous Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dsnowx53 Posted December 8, 2012 Share Posted December 8, 2012 Yeah there is some signal for Phase 1/Phase 2 for some blocking... not as strong as the signals in the Pacific. I think you are right about the tropics "fighting" with the Aleutian ridge so in the end you do get a flatter setup with a less pronounced +PNA spike. Probably would result in a milder pattern around here but could certainly produce snow. Right, okay, glad we're on the same page. And yeah, this pattern definitely doesn't scream cold for us, but if things break right there could be a decent wintry period. More than what you could say last year for sure. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChrisM Posted December 8, 2012 Share Posted December 8, 2012 Peopletake blizz way too seriously Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted December 8, 2012 Share Posted December 8, 2012 People on this forum will spend 4 days talking about a pending snow shower. i have no idea what your point is. But I do wish you would leave. I lost the point as well. Regardless of what he thinks, I enjoy the discussion and it's motivated me to get more knowledgeable on the subject. The forecast doesn't magically begin on day 7. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted December 8, 2012 Share Posted December 8, 2012 People on this forum will spend 4 days talking about a pending snow shower. i have no idea what your point is. lol good post. No one is talking about short/medium range threats because there really isn't any. And I don't blame SNE'ers for not analyzing 1-4" of front end slop in NNE (Sunday night), so naturally the main discussion will be about the long range until a threat develops closer. He makes it sound like we'd all still be over-analyzing the 10-15 day progs if there was a 3-6" event coming on Wednesday. Not true... there'd be 30 pages of posts per day on a 3-6" event 5 days out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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