powderfreak Posted December 11, 2012 Share Posted December 11, 2012 Not elevation dependent. Latitude and in some cases longitude dependent. But you don't need higher elevations ith a half decent storm track in late December. Verbatim you would on some of those progs with a lack of cold surface air and marginal temps aloft... but again, we are just saying verbatim on a day 8 prog. It is just interesting and worth noting. Also lack of snow cover to the west and north isn't exactly ushering in fresh surface cold. I think we'll get some decent tracks but the amount of available cold air below 850/4,500ft is sort of lacking to say the least on the past few GFS runs...and the ECM cuts anyway so it wouldn't matter. Sultan has been banging the drum of the analog years and wasn't Dec 1992 elevation dependent? I am starting to envision a Tip blue snow bomb is possible for the interior elevations of SNE if some of these coastal tracks pan out... becoming a bit less elevation dependent as you head north and west. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted December 11, 2012 Author Share Posted December 11, 2012 violently disagree. With not much cold air, if you live in sne, u have hardly any wiggle room at all in the cp. Deep interior as well as will, dave, blizz at 1k looks much better than portsmouth,nh Cpick you are trying to nail rain snow lines on a 7 day prog, not really a good idea. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted December 11, 2012 Author Share Posted December 11, 2012 Verbatim you would on some of those progs with a lack of cold surface air and marginal temps aloft... but again, we are just saying verbatim on a day 8 prog. It is just interesting and worth noting. Also lack of snow cover to the west and north isn't exactly ushering in fresh surface cold. I think we'll get some decent tracks but the amount of available cold air below 850/4,500ft is sort of lacking to say the least on the past few GFS runs...and the ECM cuts anyway so it wouldn't matter. Sultan has been banging the drum of the analog years and wasn't Dec 1992 elevation dependent? I am starting to envision a Tip blue snow bomb is possible for the interior elevations of SNE if some of these coastal tracks pan out... becoming a bit less elevation dependent as you head north and west. Verbatim totally but like you said day 8. All I take out of the analogs is cold pool ULL with a good slow moving storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted December 11, 2012 Share Posted December 11, 2012 Cpick you are trying to nail rain snow lines on a 7 day prog, not really a good idea. I see what he's saying though... no one's trying to nail rain/snow lines... this is just a discussion. However, so far there aren't any model runs bringing enough cold air for snow to the coastal plain. It is what it is. I do think those tracks on the 18z GFS are picture perfect for most of New England but the lack of cold air is a little alarming. Its not like we are drilling -10C H85s down to the Cape or anything prior to any storm threads in that time period. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChrisM Posted December 11, 2012 Share Posted December 11, 2012 Money pit mike is sitting at a damn sweet spot for the period 17-25. Mrg 2 .wxmanmitch as well. And orh and blizz to lesser degree imo. The cp people prob will be drinking heavily and talking themselves out of meltdowns esp if a newyears torch is on horizon Im confident for harwinton...very Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 11, 2012 Share Posted December 11, 2012 Actually, blizz at 1k may not be better than PSM because the 850 gradient runs west-east for a while. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted December 11, 2012 Author Share Posted December 11, 2012 Seems old school winter with NNE/CNE elevations cashing in first then the CP. I could see a white Christmas of some sort to the coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 11, 2012 Share Posted December 11, 2012 Im confident for harwinton...very I'm confident you are a Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 11, 2012 Share Posted December 11, 2012 Socks tied to rafters for Nzucker. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted December 11, 2012 Share Posted December 11, 2012 Verbatim totally but like you said day 8. All I take out of the analogs is cold pool ULL with a good slow moving storm. Yeah good call on the analogs so far. That's a pretty sweet product from the CPC you've been posting. Maybe I'm just missing it unless a met can explain how we may be able to get some solid cold air wedged in before those storm threats, that's all. It seems like something that a storm may have to try to produce itself through dynamics and marginal cold aloft. That sort of set-up just tends to give a nod to the elevations. But then again, saying that its more likely to snow in ORH at 1,000ft over BOS early in the season in mid-December isn't exactly a ballsy call, lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted December 11, 2012 Share Posted December 11, 2012 Actually, blizz at 1k may not be better than PSM because the 850 gradient runs west-east for a while. Yeah... interesting evolution because its a north/south gradient on that first storm as modeled, and then a west/east gradient with the second one. I just want some storm or two to still be on the models in 5 days. Who knows, by then it could be over Detroit or Bermuda. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted December 11, 2012 Author Share Posted December 11, 2012 Yeah good call on the analogs so far. That's a pretty sweet product from the CPC you've been posting. Maybe I'm just missing it unless a met can explain how we may be able to get some solid cold air wedged in before those storm threats, that's all. It seems like something that a storm may have to try to produce itself through dynamics and marginal cold aloft. That sort of set-up just tends to give a nod to the elevations. But then again, saying that its more likely to snow in ORH at 1,000ft over BOS early in the season in mid-December isn't exactly a ballsy call, lol. Not all those analog years produce but when you see big boppers consistently showing up it tends to mean dynamics are there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eduggs Posted December 11, 2012 Share Posted December 11, 2012 The GEFS mean is about as good as it gets 5 days out for ENY, intererior SNE, and NNE. It suggests 3.5 days of nearly continuous frozen precipitation. QPF is high for a 5 day mean. I bet a few of the individual members print out some obscene snowfall numbers for localized areas. If something close to the mean were to verify, it would be a fantastic stretch of weather for parts of the area. Unfortunately both the operational run and mean are noticably warner this run than last. And there's not much leeway on the warm side. I also counted at least a half dozen shortwaves in the flow around day 3 so this thing is quite convoluted. Best guess would be for less than normal continuity and a gradual move towards the Euro camp. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Alpha5 Posted December 11, 2012 Share Posted December 11, 2012 When you think about it, we really have no had a snowy, cold month since January of 2011. Much of the 2010-11 winter was between Christmas and the end of January. February was warm and dry Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorEastermass128 Posted December 11, 2012 Share Posted December 11, 2012 When you think about it, we really have no had a snowy, cold month since January of 2011. Much of the 2010-11 winter was between Christmas and the end of January. February was warm and dry I left for Europe in Jan 2011, so the last big storm (4"+) was all the way back to 1/12 when we got 20.5" I believe. 23 months and counting! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChrisM Posted December 11, 2012 Share Posted December 11, 2012 I'm confident you are a you're also confident I have multiple chances. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherMA Posted December 11, 2012 Share Posted December 11, 2012 Pete B being a maverick again and furnacing us next weekend. Did you see his exchange with Jeremy Reiner on twitter? lol. You could kind of tell from that that he didn't agree with him completely I think. Reading between the lines though Also, at 3pm the 7 day had 40 with a snowflake/rain drop. Now it has 56F and rain lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted December 11, 2012 Share Posted December 11, 2012 violently disagree. With not much cold air, if you live in sne, u have hardly any wiggle room at all in the cp. Deep interior as well as will, dave, blizz at 1k looks much better than portsmouth,nh No you wouldn't need it in low lying areas untainted by marine crud. Believe me, gfs (12z/10) would be a snowy picture for most. PSM would get buried. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted December 11, 2012 Share Posted December 11, 2012 Dgex ftw! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Torchey Posted December 11, 2012 Share Posted December 11, 2012 Another warm December night, not a single day below average for at least the next 7, depressing to say the least during the holiday season. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
N. OF PIKE Posted December 11, 2012 Share Posted December 11, 2012 Cpick you are trying to nail rain snow lines on a 7 day prog, not really a good idea. not really, just echoing what scott and ryan said earlier about the period. "tough to get snow near the coast" but like will mentioned if we get a nice high over quebec we could luck out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChrisM Posted December 11, 2012 Share Posted December 11, 2012 Another warm December night, not a single day below average for at least the next 7, depressing to say the least during the holiday season. yep, sucks living on the coast around Christmas time huh? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
N. OF PIKE Posted December 11, 2012 Share Posted December 11, 2012 yep, sucks living on the coast around Christmas time huh? lol yes even worse in nyc at coast. but it is torchy tonite i mean near 60 for kickoff in foxboro, DISASTAH Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted December 11, 2012 Share Posted December 11, 2012 not really, just echoing what scott and ryan said earlier about the period. "tough to get snow near the coast" but like will mentioned if we get a nice high over quebec we could luck out. They never said this specific to this pattern per my memory. I think it was generic? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChrisM Posted December 11, 2012 Share Posted December 11, 2012 lol yes even worse in nyc at coast. but it is torchy tonite i mean near 60 for kickoff in foxboro, DISASTAH Oh yeah for right now sure, but I legitimately think I will have a white ground a week from today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted December 11, 2012 Share Posted December 11, 2012 not really, just echoing what scott and ryan said earlier about the period. "tough to get snow near the coast" but like will mentioned if we get a nice high over quebec we could luck out. Well, if you take that verbatim, I am not sure they are really much worse off than those of us inland and at high elevations... Like Jerry said, I think latitude helps more for that puppy Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted December 11, 2012 Share Posted December 11, 2012 yep, sucks living on the coast around Christmas time huh? It does. Lights downtown, skating on the common sometimes in a winter wonderland, wonderful places to eat and drink, I'd rather live with 2 inches of snow and 3 fast food joints within 10 miles. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted December 11, 2012 Share Posted December 11, 2012 It's like the jungles of Burma here tonight. Wish the air conditioners were still running. 61 with a dewpoint of 61. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChrisM Posted December 11, 2012 Share Posted December 11, 2012 It does. Lights downtown, skating on the common sometimes in a winter wonderland, wonderful places to eat and drink, I'd rather live with 2 inches of snow and 3 fast food joints within 10 miles. You know how I meant it. Where I live has lessfast food joints than that, a very lit historic downtown, many bars/restaurants...and I still average 70" of snow a year with 2' bombs every couple of years. you and I will both remember this post when the interior is getting nailed and you're getting a 35F rain. Those lights and ice skating rinks will be doing you a lot of good then. lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted December 11, 2012 Share Posted December 11, 2012 You know how I meant it. Where I live has lessfast food joints than that, a very lit historic downtown, many bars/restaurants...and I still average 70" of snow a year with 2' bombs every couple of years. you and I will both remember this post when the interior is getting nailed and you're getting a 35F rain. Those lights and ice skating rinks will be doing you a lot of good then. lol I don't think I would take 70 inches to move to Storrs, CT. Storrs is a nice college town. Boston is perhaps America's biggest college town. I'm pretty sure you don't average a 2 footer every other year. You'd be mean to shove rain down my throat after our suffering while you were cashing in..,,lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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