Baroclinic Zone Posted December 10, 2012 Share Posted December 10, 2012 this is what happens when there's no cold air around Nice dryslot. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted December 10, 2012 Share Posted December 10, 2012 i haven't had a chc to read back through everything...so maybe it's been addressed somewhere...anyone think the wavelengths are short(er than normal)? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted December 10, 2012 Share Posted December 10, 2012 i haven't had a chc to read back through everything...so maybe it's been addressed somewhere...anyone think the wavelengths are short(er than normal)? I was thinking that same thing awhile ago - almost like we're in a transitional pattern where it's really that the L/W are harder to define while things are re-situating. How about NCEP: " BY THAT TIME THERE IS A DECENT LEVEL OF UNCERTAINTY IN STORM TRACK AND EXACT LOCATION OF THE RAIN/SNOW LINE BUT CURRENTLY EXPECT ANY WINTRY WEATHER TO BE CONFINED TO SOME PORTION OF AN AREA COVERING THE UPR MS VLY INTO THE GRTLKS/NORTHEAST." Wow, they really nailed it down, a ? haha Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
codfishsnowman Posted December 10, 2012 Share Posted December 10, 2012 now who in the ct valley really thought it was gonna be sixty this afternoon lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted December 10, 2012 Share Posted December 10, 2012 Kinda neat driving home west on Rte 2. 45F at work. As I climbed through Fitchburg/Princeton I hit the Joinery. Windshield dogged over and temps climbed 5F in 2 miles. 52 here now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted December 10, 2012 Share Posted December 10, 2012 46.1 here now who in the ct valley really thought it was gonna be sixty this afternoon lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chrisrotary12 Posted December 10, 2012 Share Posted December 10, 2012 While the ECMWF does not show snow for us at the moment, I do however like the fact that is clearly shows two storm chances for us in the future. The first one is a week from today and the second one is 10 days from now. Even though it isn't exactly showing snow.........getting it to show a storm is the first step. Let's work on the other ones in time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 10, 2012 Share Posted December 10, 2012 While the ECMWF does not show snow for us at the moment, I do however like the fact that is clearly shows two storm chances for us in the future. The first one is a week from today and the second one is 10 days from now. Even though it isn't exactly showing snow.........getting it to show a storm is the first step. Let's work on the other ones in time. That pattern beyond those 10 days looks very active as well. I don't think any major changes have occurred from what some of us were thinking last week. If there is one thing that has changed a little bit, it is the retrograding of the vortex that temporarily goes north of AK which stops our cross-polar flow...that is something that could cause the cold air source to be more modified than earlier thought at least in the nearer term (like next week)...the vortex however is moving and appears to be a transient feature eventually retrograding into Siberia as the Aleutian Ridge rebuilds poleward after that on the ensembles. This doesn't mean next weekend can't produce snow however. If that high gets anchored in southern Quebec with enough blocking assistance, it would likely be a pretty underrated air mass. But obviously with no huge arctic cold in the near term, you need that synoptic setup to be that much better...less wiggle room. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tamarack Posted December 10, 2012 Share Posted December 10, 2012 Please move this to the analysis only thread because I'd like to see some mathematical breakdown discussion on how much it could possibly be a homefield advantage for the Pats. Incomplete analysis (due to incomplete memory) of fairly recent Pats snowy wins: Jan 2001, 16-13 OT over OAK. (Tuck Rule game.) Dec 2003, 10-0 over MIA (Though the snow was only that thrown into the air by fans after Bruschi's pick-six.) Dec 2008, 47-7 over ARI (And the Cards nearly won the SB that season.) Oct 2009, 59-0 over TEN Not including any such games I've missed, that's an avg score of 33-5, though an NFL game ending with that exact score has probably never occurred. AUG still hanging tough at 30, with FZDZ. Hooray for CAD. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Alpha5 Posted December 10, 2012 Share Posted December 10, 2012 51, rain Some LES tomorrow November has been colder than December, Euro says that continues for the foreseeable future Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwinter23 Posted December 10, 2012 Share Posted December 10, 2012 A nice run of the euro ensembles this afternoon showed a southward shift in both storm threats next week. the 16th-17th event redevelops south of you guys, off the coast of LI, but the winds are southeast leading up to it as the primary goes into detroit..still a nice trend...the next event on the 19th also trended colder with a good event for interior northeast verbatim.. better than the euro op across the board Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chrisrotary12 Posted December 10, 2012 Share Posted December 10, 2012 That pattern beyond those 10 days looks very active as well. I don't think any major changes have occurred from what some of us were thinking last week. If there is one thing that has changed a little bit, it is the retrograding of the vortex that temporarily goes north of AK which stops our cross-polar flow...that is something that could cause the cold air source to be more modified than earlier thought at least in the nearer term (like next week)...the vortex however is moving and appears to be a transient feature eventually retrograding into Siberia as the Aleutian Ridge rebuilds poleward after that on the ensembles. This doesn't mean next weekend can't produce snow however. If that high gets anchored in southern Quebec with enough blocking assistance, it would likely be a pretty underrated air mass. But obviously with no huge arctic cold in the near term, you need that synoptic setup to be that much better...less wiggle room. Help me out. It is the presence of the Aleutian Ridge that allows (or helps) cross polar flow which allows for cold air to enter our region? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherMA Posted December 10, 2012 Share Posted December 10, 2012 Bold call by Pete Pete Bouchard @pbouchardon7 'Bout ready to say it (perhaps I will on TV)....odds favor a BROWN Christmas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted December 10, 2012 Share Posted December 10, 2012 Bold call by Pete Pete Bouchard @pbouchardon7 'Bout ready to say it (perhaps I will on TV)....odds favor a BROWN Christmas. I actually disagree with that. IMO odds are climo or better. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman21 Posted December 10, 2012 Share Posted December 10, 2012 Bold call by Pete Pete Bouchard @pbouchardon7 'Bout ready to say it (perhaps I will on TV)....odds favor a BROWN Christmas. I think climo favors brown Christmases for most of SNE, so I don't necessarily consider that a bold call as you could say that every year and be right more often than not. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eduggs Posted December 10, 2012 Share Posted December 10, 2012 Bold call by Pete Pete Bouchard @pbouchardon7 'Bout ready to say it (perhaps I will on TV)....odds favor a BROWN Christmas. Two weeks out he's just guessing. Still pretty much a coin flip. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted December 10, 2012 Share Posted December 10, 2012 I think BOS has a white Christmas less than half the time No big gamble Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SouthCoastMA Posted December 10, 2012 Share Posted December 10, 2012 white Christmas' occur less than 25/20% of the time down here. Edit: I guess it's more like 30-40%..but still. It is a bold call for Boston 15 days out when climo says its 50%, and the pattern is becoming a lot more conducive to storminess. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherMA Posted December 10, 2012 Share Posted December 10, 2012 Two weeks out he's just guessing. Still pretty much a coin flip. Agreed, which is why I wouldn't make the call. Not a big gamble though, I agree. Not like him tweeting "Looks good for a snowstorm next Sunday"...that would be a gamble (could pay off or bust BADLY). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted December 10, 2012 Share Posted December 10, 2012 I think climo favors brown Christmases for most of SNE, so I don't necessarily consider that a bold call as you could say that every year and be right more often than not. What is Boston's climo for white christmas? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted December 10, 2012 Share Posted December 10, 2012 I think climo favors brown Christmases for most of SNE, so I don't necessarily consider that a bold call as you could say that every year and be right more often than not. Really? I thought most of MA west of 495 and then NW 1/3rd of CT was like 60-75%. Even higher in MRG land Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ma blizzard Posted December 10, 2012 Share Posted December 10, 2012 I think climo favors brown Christmases for most of SNE, so I don't necessarily consider that a bold call as you could say that every year and be right more often than not. by population you are probably right, but by geographic area it may be close .. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted December 10, 2012 Share Posted December 10, 2012 What is Boston's climo for white christmas? MASSACHUSETTS BOSTON 23% 17% 3% MILTON 55% 21% 7% SOUTH WEYMOUTH 33% 13% 10% WORCESTER 60% 27% 10% Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 10, 2012 Share Posted December 10, 2012 What is Boston's climo for white christmas? I believe it is around 1 out 3. For ORH it is between 60-65% (I think its 62.5% or something since 1950) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted December 10, 2012 Share Posted December 10, 2012 Really? I thought most of MA west of 495 and then NW 1/3rd of CT was like 60-75%. Even higher in MRG land Yeah I would imagine GC is pretty high... like 75%<. I know we are 90%< up this way. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted December 10, 2012 Share Posted December 10, 2012 1", 5", 10" probablilities for Christmas morning... sorry Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherMA Posted December 10, 2012 Share Posted December 10, 2012 \ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted December 10, 2012 Share Posted December 10, 2012 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted December 10, 2012 Share Posted December 10, 2012 I believe it is around 1 out 3. For ORH it is between 60-65% (I think its 62.5% or something since 1950) Less than 1 in 4 (based on a 1" or greateron the ground for a "white" Christmas) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Torchey Posted December 10, 2012 Share Posted December 10, 2012 Strange day for departures and temps, orh reached 57 which was a +16, was +5.4 for the month before today, should be north of +6 tomorrow. Tan looks like it really torched while the valleys were much cooler. 5 out of the first ten days at orh have featured double digit positive departures. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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