weathafella Posted December 10, 2012 Share Posted December 10, 2012 I think it's curtains for cold this December. I'm hopeful we can sneak out snow though even with an AOA remainder of the month. Cfs locked that in early in November even when other progs looked better. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted December 10, 2012 Share Posted December 10, 2012 Cfs locked that in early in November even when other progs looked better. There's just no source for it. Look at the D11-D15 temperature anomalies. Even if we get some nice troughiness and some downstream blocking it will be hard to start putting up negative departures with crap across Canada and the big cold on the other side of the Pole. The nice ridging over AK is much more muted than it looked before. Even with meh cold to the north we are getting to the time of the year where even an AOA temperature setup can yield snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted December 10, 2012 Share Posted December 10, 2012 There's just no source for it. Look at the D11-D15 temperature anomalies. Even if we get some nice troughiness and some downstream blocking it will be hard to start putting up negative departures with crap across Canada and the big cold on the other side of the Pole. The nice ridging over AK is much more muted than it looked before. Even with meh cold to the north we are getting to the time of the year where even an AOA temperature setup can yield snow. Yeah snow can happen and 30/24 days with snow are certainly not out of the question but things need to break right. I feel bad for Kevin.....he really internalizes the wx more than anyone I know. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted December 10, 2012 Share Posted December 10, 2012 Yeah snow can happen and 30/24 days with snow are certainly not out of the question but things need to break right. I feel bad for Kevin.....he really internalizes the wx more than anyone I know. I know I feel bad for him. That pig pile on him earlier pushed him over the cliff. I think we have a couple shots to get lucky. But boy do I hope we cash in because I fear a legit torch toward New Year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hazey Posted December 10, 2012 Share Posted December 10, 2012 The 0z GFS looks slightly interesting for next weekend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted December 10, 2012 Share Posted December 10, 2012 Kev should get his own blog on this site. He's a donator. He can post his thoughts there and people can choose to read or not read and he can edit the comments. Jmho but it would give him some freedom to beat the drum off the main threads which sometimes results in sharp responses back. The CFs weeklies. How are they looking now? We will get a few shots before xmas Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted December 10, 2012 Share Posted December 10, 2012 Kev should get his own blog on this site. He's a donator. He can post his thoughts there and people can choose to read or not read and he can edit the comments. Jmho but it would give him some freedom to beat the drum off the main threads which sometimes results in sharp responses back. The CFs weeklies. How are they looking now? We will get a few shots before xmas The cfs weeklies look cold for weeks 3/4. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isotherm Posted December 10, 2012 Share Posted December 10, 2012 The 0z GFS looks slightly interesting for next weekend. All this talk of jumping in tubs with hair dryers and next weekend could potentially produce a snow event for much of New England. Definitely looks conducive at H5 with strong blocking across Greenland, nice confluence in sern Canada w/ 1028mb sfc high pressure building southward. Good cold source behind the wave. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted December 10, 2012 Share Posted December 10, 2012 It's become more and more evident that current Kevin doesn't work well in this current board dynamic. Think he just needs to ask himself whats a good idea to post and whats not a little more often and all will be well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted December 10, 2012 Share Posted December 10, 2012 Yeah snow can happen and 30/24 days with snow are certainly not out of the question but things need to break right. I feel bad for Kevin.....he really internalizes the wx more than anyone I know. I think many dont understand the weather is almost a religion to him. What some deem as annoying or repetitive posts are just really a guy that loves this stuff with more passion than most. Their is a fine line though and I also feel for the mods who have to keep this running smoothly. Anyway. Is what it is Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted December 10, 2012 Share Posted December 10, 2012 Elaborating on Cfs. Those weeklies point to the weeks of 12/24 and 12/31 as legit cold. Opposite of Ryan's thoughts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isotherm Posted December 10, 2012 Share Posted December 10, 2012 The question at hand for next weekend is going to be the placement of the -NAO block by that point in time. the 00z GFS goes bonkers, building heights quite rapidly over Greenland by day 5 (yes, we're under a week now) causing the primary wave to weaken and transfer to the coastal secondary. The 12z ECMWF did not seem as quick in retrograding the block across Greenland for next weekend and thus confluence was not as efficient at suppressing the primary, and it cut for the Lakes. Given the current signalling, this is the type of situation where I could see a sneaky wintry potential for New England. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted December 10, 2012 Share Posted December 10, 2012 Elaborating on Cfs. Those weeklies point to the weeks of 12/24 and 12/31 as legit cold. Opposite of Ryan's thoughts. That would be nice. I think it may be tough to do IF the MJO remains stout and is well within P2 and moving east. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 10, 2012 Share Posted December 10, 2012 This is one of those patterns that will produce a tip wet snow blue bomb will minimal cold air but lot of available PWAT in marginal air. It really doesn't look terrible to me, although it may be tough on coastal folks. It may not be the coldest pattern but I see storms for sure. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted December 10, 2012 Share Posted December 10, 2012 This is one of those patterns that will produce a tip wet snow blue bomb will minimal cold air but lot of available PWAT in marginal air. It really doesn't look terrible to me, although it may be tough on coastal folks. It may not be the coldest pattern but I see storms for sure. Yeah I agree. With the Pacific the way it is plenty of disturbances to track coming out of the 4 corners region me thinks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Turtle Posted December 10, 2012 Share Posted December 10, 2012 This is one of those patterns that will produce a tip wet snow blue bomb will minimal cold air but lot of available PWAT in marginal air. It really doesn't look terrible to me, although it may be tough on coastal folks. It may not be the coldest pattern but I see storms for sure. I'll be short term forecaster on days tomorrow through Wed. Sounds...interesting, though if next weekend a little outside my forecast period. The one thing that scares me is ice rather than snow with marginal airmass, especially across interior valleys like overnight tonight. Missed posting on the other thread before it was closed down. CONGRATS papa!! Good lookin' boy you have there. Best wishes to you and your family. --Turtle Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 10, 2012 Share Posted December 10, 2012 I'll be short term forecaster on days tomorrow through Wed. Sounds...interesting, though if next weekend a little outside my forecast period. The one thing that scares me is ice rather than snow with marginal airmass, especially across interior valleys like overnight tonight. Missed posting on the other thread before it was closed down. CONGRATS papa!! Good lookin' boy you have there. Best wishes to you and your family. --Turtle Thanks for the kind wishes Eleanor! A lot of work to be sure, but we love him. He already has a snow suit so I hope to use it soon, lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChrisM Posted December 10, 2012 Share Posted December 10, 2012 Sadly, Kevin has given up on the board He will be back, we all love him too much Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 10, 2012 Share Posted December 10, 2012 Man the GEFS are pretty weenie-ish with the weak block north of us. Bootleg cold, but coastal storm pattern. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 10, 2012 Share Posted December 10, 2012 Kevin got so mad he hacked into NCEP and perturbed the GEFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted December 10, 2012 Share Posted December 10, 2012 Man the GEFS are pretty weenie-ish with the weak block north of us. Bootleg cold, but coastal storm pattern. Yeah it is nice. Just a sort of weird setup that could verify. Crap for cold, height anomalies over E QC through Greenland acting as some blocking and a parade of s/ws diving down the Pacific coast and getting ejected east. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 10, 2012 Share Posted December 10, 2012 Yeah it is nice. Just a sort of weird setup that could verify. Crap for cold, height anomalies over E QC through Greenland acting as some blocking and a parade of s/ws diving down the Pacific coast and getting ejected east. Who's to say how correct it is, but those weak bootleg blocks can be nice especially for the interior. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted December 10, 2012 Share Posted December 10, 2012 Who's to say how correct it is, but those weak bootleg blocks can be nice especially for the interior. Yeah they can. Definitely potential thankfully.... let's just hope it delivers. Without that blocking it becomes pretty hideous. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 10, 2012 Share Posted December 10, 2012 Yeah they can. Definitely potential thankfully.... let's just hope it delivers. Without that blocking it becomes pretty hideous. Ignoring the whole day 14 stuff from the GEFS( hear that eduggs?) that's how you get colder air into the CONUS. Check out how the AK ridge tips east a bit and forces the cold south. Even a bit of -NAO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted December 10, 2012 Share Posted December 10, 2012 Ignoring the whole day 14 stuff from the GEFS( hear that eduggs?) that's how you get colder air into the CONUS. Check out how the AK ridge tips east a bit and forces the cold south. Even a bit of -NAO. GEFS is a solution for sure with that Christmas cross polar flow lol. I wouldn't count on that but even D6-D15 holds potential for snow even though I think it will be above normal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 10, 2012 Share Posted December 10, 2012 GEFS is a solution for sure with that Christmas cross polar flow lol. I wouldn't count on that but even D6-D15 holds potential for snow even though I think it will be above normal. I feel the same way. Probably warmer than normal, but some chances there. Agree. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted December 10, 2012 Share Posted December 10, 2012 Nice little PNA spike and retrograding ridge to West-Central Canada with a cross-polar flow by the 23rd leads to this mean signal on Christmas. 's everywhere. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted December 10, 2012 Share Posted December 10, 2012 Congrats on the boy Scott. Get him out on the ice and fields early!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted December 10, 2012 Share Posted December 10, 2012 Thanks for the kind wishes Eleanor! A lot of work to be sure, but we love him. He already has a snow suit so I hope to use it soon, lol. Congrates to your new addition to your family. Enjoy! It is a real pleasure seeing them grow up. I have a 3 year old soon to be 4 and we have a little 4 month old. Two boys. My wife is looking forward to them growing up together lol. Again congrates man and enjoy! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
N. OF PIKE Posted December 10, 2012 Share Posted December 10, 2012 Sounds like the coast may be close to punting december and the interior (esp at elevation) have solid shot-per latest thinking. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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