weathafella Posted December 9, 2012 Share Posted December 9, 2012 not really, I think. We've been talking about the prospects of a gradient pattern, the the last couple ec and ec ensembles is not that. There's supposed to be very cold air to the north in a gradient pattern, it's pretty much just warm every from the mid-atlantic into Quebec and Ontario. Not sure I can agree with you. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted December 9, 2012 Share Posted December 9, 2012 Well - Kevin, you got your snow to ice storm after all, just 100 miles too far to your N ...as the crow flies. In fact, much of western ME is anticipating a fairly high impact event with up to .5" icing over 3 or 4 inches of snow. Still ... I tell you what - that high is initially still building in up there; I'd watch this along Rt 2 and NE Mass. Not for the same thing, but ... could almost see a secondary push of ageostrophic flow getting into those northern zones. One thing I am noticing on the NAM is a low placement near MPV that suddenly repositions its self into southern NH before exiting into the GOM. That center jump is probably the triple point that I still feel has some chance of being missed with the high up there. If a triple point were to actually to cut SE of ORH (not a huge correction), then it could drain. A lot of the hi-res models are trying to do this. NAM12, local WRF, etc. have PWM temps falling during the day tomorrow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted December 9, 2012 Share Posted December 9, 2012 Well to be fair...the 850s over SE QB on that 240hr mean are a good 4-8C above normal and approach normal as you get to the Mid Atl. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted December 9, 2012 Share Posted December 9, 2012 Jerry, the general theme is much warmer than normal. Take a look at the anomalies. And where is the strong high to the north? You want to see those anomalies over the east switched....with higher than normal heights over the SE and lower than normal heights over Nova Scotia. +7c anomalies at 850mb. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted December 9, 2012 Share Posted December 9, 2012 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted December 9, 2012 Share Posted December 9, 2012 There's no question the pattern is not great D6-D15. It's not horrible either for snow. Just need to get one of these systems to not cut too far west. Particularly for the interior I think we have some chances. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted December 9, 2012 Share Posted December 9, 2012 There's no question the pattern is not great D6-D15. It's not horrible either for snow. Just need to get one of these systems to not cut too far west. Particularly for the interior I think we have some chances. can we drop the idea of a gradient pattern? Do we have to wait longer for it or is just not going to work out? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted December 9, 2012 Author Share Posted December 9, 2012 Ryan this is the biggest problem I have with that Article."Since 1900, the average annual temperature in the Northeast has increased by about 0.14 degrees per decade, with higher averages since 1970." in fact the 2000 decade has seen negligible increase in Winter temps, judging annual temp increases and applying them to only winter makes little sense. Increased snowfall has allowed CT ski areas to have more ski days than the 90s. I would like to see their stats about winter temps increase. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted December 9, 2012 Share Posted December 9, 2012 Yes but the h5 pattern is in retrogression mode to me. And the d7 h85 snapshot is not really fair when you see it progressing towards Davis Strait not surprisingly woth nao position beyond d10. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
N. OF PIKE Posted December 9, 2012 Share Posted December 9, 2012 not really, I think. We've been talking about the prospects of a gradient pattern, the the last couple ec and ec ensembles is not that. There's supposed to be very cold air to the north in a gradient pattern, it's pretty much just warm every from the mid-atlantic into Quebec and Ontario. no matter what happens it seems it always "awt". I bet day 11-15 looks good lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted December 9, 2012 Share Posted December 9, 2012 Ryan this is the biggest problem I have with that Article."Since 1900, the average annual temperature in the Northeast has increased by about 0.14 degrees per decade, with higher averages since 1970." in fact the 2000 decade has seen negligible increase in Winter temps, judging annual temp increases and applying them to only winter makes little sense. Increased snowfall has allowed CT ski areas to have more ski days than the 90s. I would like to see their stats about winter temps increase. Well you're comparing 2000-2011 temps to 1981-2010 climo. But either way, I thought the study was interesting. It's something that all the ski areas acknowledge is an issue and they know the importance of making snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted December 9, 2012 Share Posted December 9, 2012 Beggars can't be choosers, but GC ftw with the WWA. A PERIOD OF MIXED PRECIPITATION AND FREEZING RAIN IS LIKELY IN THE DISTANT INTERIOR LATE TONIGHT. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted December 9, 2012 Share Posted December 9, 2012 Yes but the h5 pattern is in retrogression mode to me. And the d7 h85 snapshot is not really fair when you see it progressing towards Davis Strait not surprisingly woth nao position beyond d10. that's not a day h85 snapshot though, it's the day 6-10 mean. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted December 9, 2012 Share Posted December 9, 2012 Well you're comparing 2000-2011 temps to 1981-2010 climo. But either way, I thought the study was interesting. It's something that all the ski areas acknowledge is an issue and they know the importance of making snow. And either way everything is cited in the paper. Did you read it? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahk_webstah Posted December 9, 2012 Share Posted December 9, 2012 Absolutely Bo was 19, we have 2 bichons, 1 Boston Terrier, 1 chihuahua, and now a half bulldog half pit named Riann 19!? That's what a little love and some good friends will do... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted December 9, 2012 Share Posted December 9, 2012 that's not a day h85 snapshot though, it's the day 6-10 mean. Sorry...just noticed. But the results are the same for my reasoning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted December 9, 2012 Share Posted December 9, 2012 I'll admit...I'm getting pretty damn sick of talking about day 10. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted December 9, 2012 Share Posted December 9, 2012 Sorry...just noticed. But the results are the same for my reasoning. okay. maybe it will finally work out for Christmas Day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CarverWX Posted December 9, 2012 Share Posted December 9, 2012 I'll admit...I'm getting pretty damn sick of talking about day 10. It is kinda sad that day 10+ looks so good but we never get there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted December 9, 2012 Share Posted December 9, 2012 Since there's a baby in the thread title.......My neice just had a baby. Apparently, that makes me a "great uncle". I REALLY don't like the sound of that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
toronto blizzard Posted December 9, 2012 Share Posted December 9, 2012 I'll admit...I'm getting pretty damn sick of talking about day 10. So then don't talk about it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted December 9, 2012 Author Share Posted December 9, 2012 19!? That's what a little love and some good friends will do... Yea what a weenie he was. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted December 9, 2012 Share Posted December 9, 2012 It's 12/9. Understandably folks in Buffalo are frustrated but Boston has different climo. Anyone from the Boston area complaining all that much is setting themselves up for eternal disappointment. If its like this moving to the solstice we can talk differently. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted December 9, 2012 Author Share Posted December 9, 2012 And either way everything is cited in the paper. Did you read it? I read the article, where is the link to the paper. I thought the paper was yet to be published. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 9, 2012 Share Posted December 9, 2012 Since there's a baby in the thread title.......My neice just had a baby. Apparently, that makes me a "great uncle". I REALLY don't like the sound of that. Yeah, I am heading for a 3 time great uncle, My nieces daughter is 20 yrs old, My nephew just had a 3 week old girl, And my brothers daughter is expecting in may Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted December 9, 2012 Share Posted December 9, 2012 I'll admit...I'm getting pretty damn sick of talking about day 10. The bellweather period around 12/18-20....if that comes and goes and we're still mainly look at 10+ day threats for more favorable weather that's going to be a significant issue. I think we're okay. I don't expect a shift to the deep tundra I think the change is going to be to more "cool" periods in between Pac ragers. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted December 9, 2012 Share Posted December 9, 2012 It's 12/9. Understandably folks in Buffalo are frustrated but Boston has different climo. Anyone from the Boston area complaining all that much is setting themselves up for eternal disappointment. If its like this moving to the solstice we can talk differently. Well I am fairly disappointed in the way the winter has transpired so far for snowfall...but I'm just trying to look objectively at the next 10 days and see that hey...it's not a good pattern and it's not even a gradient pattern for that matter. Maybe it will change after that? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DavisStraight Posted December 9, 2012 Share Posted December 9, 2012 Yeah, I am heading for a 3 time great uncle, My nieces daughter is 20 yrs old, My nephew just had a 3 week old girl, And my brothers daughter is expecting in may Your heading to be a great great uncle, I am one time over, its just means we're old Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eduggs Posted December 9, 2012 Share Posted December 9, 2012 Not to be a downer, but there is really very limited chance of a NAM like solution - that Wed thing is a remnant SW conus trough ejection through a flow that utterly cannot be compressed. The balanced mid level flow over the deep SE prior to the arrival of the impulse is raging in wind speed, and the heights are too high. The impulse is thus damping, not amplifying, as it gets squashed through. That does not lend to much more than a flat wave that rockets toward England. I've said essentially the same thing since I noticed a few ensemble members playing it up on Friday night. That's why I've downplayed it every time I've mentioned it. But one thing I've learned over the years is that if a model depicts it happening, either the model physics are wrong or it physically can happen. So it would probably be incorrect to say that the NAM model depiction can't happen. And we're left with what I've been saying... there is a low probability chance for some kind of coastal low, esp impacting SE areas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 9, 2012 Share Posted December 9, 2012 Your heading to be a great great uncle, I am one time over, its just means we're old Unfortunately yes, That is what it means Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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