eduggs Posted December 9, 2012 Share Posted December 9, 2012 I think you are mixing pattern discussion with immediate mid range threats. I saw a bunch of mentions of the Wed threat but it appears almost everyone including yourself is discounting it. Get something actually plausible then watch it ramp up. People mentioned the overrunning threat today, the anafrontal threat, and the Tue wave. I did not read anyone else mention the Wed threat until yesterday because it wasn't visible on the surface QPF charts. It was purely an upper level feature, but it at least caught my attention. I am not ruling out Wed, just downplaying it. I like to talk about threats even before they are obvious. That's what mets do. Some enjoy doing that with long range data, I prefer shorter time scales. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted December 9, 2012 Share Posted December 9, 2012 Jeezus, 12Z GFS night and day from 06Z for next weekend yeah ....i dunno, unfortunately that 168 to 180 hour op. solution is a needle threader given to the other synoptic components. It would certainly be nice to recoup a Miller B type system, but the lead baroclinicity in the region where the run tries to detonate the redevelopment is almost not there - it makes the run suspect. All the thickness/thermal packing is in central/N New England, and it just suddenly drill a rapid deepening sfc reflection amid an amorphous gradient SE of LI. The reason it does that is entirely clear; it's a hydrostatic response to the nose of a strong mid level jet max careening off the MA on a NE trajectory, then getting captured by a polarward stream/phase in the vicinity. Yeah, it could do that, but without the llv frontal tapestry it makes that look sort of like a 1::10 shot of succeeding that way. Eh, those players probably won't survive a 180 hours of perturbation to begin with - Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eduggs Posted December 9, 2012 Share Posted December 9, 2012 12z GEFS still teasing with an offshore coastal low for Wed. Looks like about a tenth on the mean for the Cape and Islands. I'm guessing about 25% are light hits to glancing blows. Pretty much status quo for the past several runs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted December 9, 2012 Share Posted December 9, 2012 44 here and actually feels warm I shut off the heat and opened the windows to let some fresh air in Wow...even the torchy ct valley is in the mid 40s. U30s still in nw ct and w ma Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
S&P Posted December 9, 2012 Share Posted December 9, 2012 sunday night football tonight ought to be a snow globe, looking forward to watching that game Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted December 9, 2012 Share Posted December 9, 2012 12z GEFS still teasing with an offshore coastal low for Wed. Looks like about a tenth on the mean for the Cape and Islands. I'm guessing about 25% are light hits to glancing blows. Pretty much status quo for the past several runs. Not to be a downer, but there is really very limited chance of a NAM like solution - that Wed thing is a remnant SW conus trough ejection through a flow that utterly cannot be compressed. The balanced mid level flow over the deep SE prior to the arrival of the impulse is raging in wind speed, and the heights are too high. The impulse is thus damping, not amplifying, as it gets squashed through. That does not lend to much more than a flat wave that rockets toward England. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahk_webstah Posted December 9, 2012 Share Posted December 9, 2012 nice hope all is well. Still have the pooch? We just got another to make 5, this one is not a lapdog and replaces big old Bo. She had her first snow and loves it. Hopefully another weenie dog like Bo. Many pics incoming. We lost our old golden Zoe at 14, in June of 2011. We quickly got our pup Sophie in late July. Her first storm was the Halloween storm. She freaked out and loved it. You will see her a lot this winter if the snow gods are willing. What kind of dogs do you have? I'm addicted to Goldens. How old was Bo? Dogs are amazing aren't they?....at both helping you stay "in the moment" and enjoy life, as well as teaching you about the stages and seasons of life. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted December 9, 2012 Share Posted December 9, 2012 CMC and gfs op models in the same swfe camp for next weekend. Euro seems to be heading there as well. Another reason people shouldn't get wedded to one suite of runs. Small changes mean big differences in sensible wx. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted December 9, 2012 Share Posted December 9, 2012 We lost our old golden Zoe at 14, in June of 2011. We quickly got our pup Sophie in late July. Her first storm was the Halloween storm. She freaked out and loved it. You will see her a lot this winter if the snow gods are willing. What kind of dogs do you have? I'm addicted to Goldens. How old was Bo? Dogs are amazing aren't they?....at both helping you stay "in the moment" and enjoy life, as well as teaching you about the stages and seasons of life. Nice Mark! My beloved golden lost a year of snow last winter...lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted December 9, 2012 Share Posted December 9, 2012 Cool to see a bunch of dog lovers on here...my lab is 12 years old and I know her days are numbered....sad but it's the cycle. She's been on so many adventures with me in the mountains, so it'll be tough to say goodbye. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted December 9, 2012 Share Posted December 9, 2012 CMC and gfs op models in the same swfe camp for next weekend. Euro seems to be heading there as well. Another reason people shouldn't get wedded to one suite of runs. Small changes mean big differences in sensible wx. Main low heading into the gl at 168h. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted December 9, 2012 Share Posted December 9, 2012 Main low heading into the gl at 168h. Damming signature is there though. Banana high to the north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bostonseminole Posted December 9, 2012 Share Posted December 9, 2012 47 sun, tree time Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted December 9, 2012 Share Posted December 9, 2012 Main low heading into the gl at 168h. Yeah the op 12z euro is horrible once again. No gradient pattern at all. Another cutter comes on the 19th. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChrisM Posted December 9, 2012 Share Posted December 9, 2012 Just got to see the GEFS regarding the 84 hr storm, man is that a tease. Seems to be pretty good agreement on a miss though..but it wouldn't take much. Looks like the islands and part of the cape get some precip on most members. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Torchey Posted December 9, 2012 Share Posted December 9, 2012 Tomorrow is full of win. If its not going to snow lets turn up the heat. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 9, 2012 Share Posted December 9, 2012 51 torchy degrees now. Bout 7-8 above normal. Wow...I'm only 42.5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthShoreWx Posted December 9, 2012 Share Posted December 9, 2012 41N was the cutoff. A true Pike north winter. It wa not a fun winter to be sitting at 40.9N. At least it was good when we traveled north. Last winter was bad everywhere. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
N. OF PIKE Posted December 9, 2012 Share Posted December 9, 2012 How's toronto blizz.....he must be on the good side of this crap pattern Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahk_webstah Posted December 9, 2012 Share Posted December 9, 2012 Nice Mark! My beloved golden lost a year of snow last winter...lol. That is so not fair. They are the only other mammal that love snow as much as we do. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahk_webstah Posted December 9, 2012 Share Posted December 9, 2012 Cool to see a bunch of dog lovers on here...my lab is 12 years old and I know her days are numbered....sad but it's the cycle. She's been on so many adventures with me in the mountains, so it'll be tough to say goodbye. enjoy every day she has left! She is.. hey did you get my pm a couple weeks ago? about houses to rent in Stowe. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted December 9, 2012 Share Posted December 9, 2012 That is so not fair. They are the only other mammal that love snow as much as we do. Last week... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahk_webstah Posted December 9, 2012 Share Posted December 9, 2012 Last week... Yet another reason to go for a walk with you when I am in Brookline. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorEastermass128 Posted December 9, 2012 Share Posted December 9, 2012 I guessed the silence on the board after the 12z GFS meant that the 12z EURO was not so forgiving. Guessed correctly. Plenty of time for it to trend S&E... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted December 9, 2012 Share Posted December 9, 2012 EPO/NAO couplet developing? 11-15 mean GEFS How it gets there: D11. D16 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted December 9, 2012 Share Posted December 9, 2012 Yet another reason to go for a walk with you when I am in Brookline. I'll take you to nice dog places and weenie ridges....lol. Seriously, let me know when you're coming down. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted December 9, 2012 Share Posted December 9, 2012 I guessed the silence on the board after the 12z GFS meant that the 12z EURO was not so forgiving. Guessed correctly. Plenty of time for it to trend S&E... It actually is way better. Allsnow is pretty far south for it to work but its definitely trending. And yes there's a d10 bomb which is a rainer for us but that's fine. Follows the 1993 script. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted December 9, 2012 Share Posted December 9, 2012 I think the wave to keep an eye out on is the the one at 192-240 hrs on the euro...If we can get the day 5-7 storm to place some cold air & confluence it could work out... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted December 9, 2012 Share Posted December 9, 2012 It actually is way better. Allsnow is pretty far south for it to work but its definitely trending. And yes there's a d10 bomb which is a rainer for us but that's fine. Follows the 1993 script. Lol. Jerry there is not right side of the gradient or trending for your backyard on 12z euro op...its rain for brookline from today till the 20th. Checking stats looks like nyc has beaten bos is snowfall last 2 out of 3.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted December 9, 2012 Share Posted December 9, 2012 Lol. Jerry there is not right side of the gradient or trending for your backyard on 12z euro op...its rain for brookline from today till the 20th. Checking stats looks like nyc has beaten bos is snowfall last 2 out of 3.. See ya in 2007-08 meat. But it is swfe that ended up going to the lakes. It's a huge trend to me towards other guidance. This isn't a comparison but sorry, I grew up down there, winters more robust here. End of story. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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