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A new Baby, a fresh approach


Ginx snewx

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lol

the guy just posts about warmth mainly..bfd.

He even posts the progs to back it up.

maybe if you guys got together and decided to clean up the nonsense that occurs in this forum we wouldn't have a big problem?

None of this would even be an issue if forky were a snow monger...you guys would love him. Because he trolls with warm progs...he's suddenly the devil.

I think I will put your snowfall totals in my sig
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Dear God

light rain 45...........this happens every year, every single year, as soon as snow is in the forecast its serious business in here. Thats why people from all over the country stop by. There is nothing going on, the weather is beyond dismal. wha wha wha wha just have some fun and lighten up, snow on the way pattern change almost complete.

yep change in the wind. Looking good
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I'm also mildly intrigued by the Wed possibility. The longwave trof axis if finally in a good position by this timeframe. The structure remains positive tilted and the shortwave timing and interaction is poor. But if the models miss a robust s/w in the flow and/or the timing is improved, the Tue - Thurs timeframe could potentially produce a coastal low that affects at least SE areas.

The 12z NAM looks nice at 500mb at the end of its run. I don't believe it should be discounted even though it's the "84hr NAM." Hour 72 looks good too, as does hour 78. A "weenie" run or two was expected based on several models' ensembles.

3 of 12 of the 06z GEFS were semi-hits for Wednesday. And a few more were grazers or near misses. The SREFs also threatened but the vast majority are misses.

The shortwave is looking a little better run after run, but the flow over the Lakes around day 3 does not allow heights to rise far enough up the coast. The shortwave is not well phased as it is on the upstream side of the longwave trof axis. There is too much westerly component to the upper level flow, and not enough southerly component. The baroclinic zone also remains suppressed to the southeast. There is still some chance that the model error in the upper levels is large enough to allow some changes to the mid and upper level structure through the Lakes in subsequent runs.

This is clearly worthing keeping an interested eye on. Especially for southeast areas of SNE. But the operational runs of the CMC, GFS, and Euro do not look hopeful. Chances are low.

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I didn't call him stupid. I called several of his points stupid...there is a difference. He is coming in here and being provocative, it is pretty easy to tell. His points in my opinion didn't make sense and he was trying to provoke. He basically was trashing a number of people. That is his right I suppose but it doesn't help the board. If you are going to trash people then do it by making some solid points.

He should just look in the mirror and take it elsewhere. Last I need to say on this.

I don't intend to trash anyone. I come to this forum because I enjoy reading and participating in it. But I do get a little discouraged by what I perceive as a long range obsession by some well respected mets... and then an overreliance on what it appears to suggest by everyone else. I would personally enjoy more discussion and analysis of the midrange.

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I think you may be misinterpreting the banner here, as many non-New Englanders so when they enter this thread. A certain amount of kidding and sarcasm are a part of the culture here and it is different than NY and the MA. Forky throws crap in here all the time...it is funny and it gets thrown back at him. I don't think that is personal or mean at all, it is hard core kidding and it is entertaining at least to me. It is part of the "culture" of this regional forum. What eduggs is doing is something very different. Usually a few come in during each winter season and do the same thing.

Hey Mark, look forward to your pics of deep snow. The ghosts of last year have some spooked. Looks great for us and I am sure the out of region folks will get their share at some point. Seeing storms progged is certainly a big change from last year.
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I don't intend to trash anyone. I come to this forum because I enjoy reading and participating in it. But I do get a little discouraged by what I perceive as a long range obsession by some well respected mets... and then an overreliance on what it appears to suggest by everyone else. I would personally enjoy more discussion and analysis of the midrange.

I point you back to Every storm since this Subforum started prior days for tons of mid range analysis.
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congrats berkshires

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY

1224 PM EST SUN DEC 9 2012

MAZ001-025-NYZ038>040-047-048-051-054-058-084-100130-

/O.NEW.KALY.WW.Y.0013.121210T0000Z-121210T1100Z/

NORTHERN BERKSHIRE-SOUTHERN BERKSHIRE-SOUTHERN HERKIMER-

SOUTHERN FULTON-MONTGOMERY-SCHOHARIE-WESTERN SCHENECTADY-

WESTERN ALBANY-EASTERN RENSSELAER-WESTERN GREENE-

SOUTHERN WASHINGTON-

INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...PITTSFIELD...NORTH ADAMS...

GREAT BARRINGTON...LEE...LENOX...HOUSATONIC...ILION...HERKIMER...

LITTLE FALLS...MOHAWK...FRANKFORT...DOLGEVILLE...GLOVERSVILLE...

JOHNSTOWN...AMSTERDAM...WELLSVILLE...COBLESKILL...MIDDLEBURGH...

DELANSON...ESPERANCE...DUANESBURG...ALTAMONT...HOOSICK FALLS...

HUNTER...TANNERSVILLE...WINDHAM...HUDSON FALLS...FORT EDWARD...

CAMBRIDGE...GREENWICH

1224 PM EST SUN DEC 9 2012

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO

6 AM EST MONDAY...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN ALBANY HAS ISSUED A WINTER

WEATHER ADVISORY FOR FREEZING RAIN AND SLEET...WHICH IS IN EFFECT

FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 AM EST MONDAY.

* LOCATIONS...MOHAWK AND SCHOHARIE VALLEYS...NORTHEAST

CATSKILLS...HELDERGBERS...NORTHERN TACONICS...THE BERKSHIRES.

* HAZARD TYPES...MAINLY FREEZING RAIN WITH SOME SLEET POSSIBLE.

* ACCUMULATIONS...SLEET ACCUMULATION OF A DUSTING...WITH A GLAZE

TO ONE TENTH OF AN INCH OF ICE.

* TIMING...THIS EVENING INTO THE EARLY MORNING HOURS.

* IMPACTS...POTENTIAL ICE ACCRETION WILL CAUSE SLIPPERY CONDITIONS

ON UNTREATED ROADS AND WALKWAYS.

* WINDS...SOUTHEAST 5 TO 15 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 25 MPH.

* TEMPERATURES...MAINLY IN THE LOWER 30S.

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It may never snow or get cold again.

It's funny - it's amazing that Dec is doing this after last year. What makes it weird is that parts of Europe and Asia are having the best 5 years ever. This is like a targeted assault to the CONUS.

Sandy was exciting and certainly interesting Meteorology ... my hunch is that the majority voice on American bb would trade 10 Sandy's flip last year's script entirely.

Completely different regime/synoptic paradigm than last year = the same result? suppose it is possible -

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I point you back to Every storm since this Subforum started prior days for tons of mid range analysis.

I've been reading these boards for 10 years. The analysis used to be better in my opinion. The best short/mid range guys in this subforum by my estimation are the mets who focus on mesoscale stuff like mountain wx or lake effect (with exceptions of course).

Two people mentioned the Wed threat, CT Rain and me. Granted, the threat is quite low. But it's not that low. And that's not even the only wintry potential for this week. It's not the most exciting weather week, but part of the fun is figuring out the details and trying to get it right. I would hope it's not only about finding the next monster out in fantasy land.

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Will and scooter said a week ago they would almost want to see the pattern tank to see the meltdowns.... Well bring on the clowns, this is going to be epic. You know it's bad when weenies start posting 84 hour nam maps.

The problem with this is that the pattern can't tank any worse than it is - so not sure what they would be waiting for. haha

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Hey Mark, look forward to your pics of deep snow. The ghosts of last year have some spooked. Looks great for us and I am sure the out of region folks will get their share at some point. Seeing storms progged is certainly a big change from last year.

I promise you not just pictures but action packed videos.

Seriously the only thing keeping me sane is that I am constantly traveling for my business, so I dont' have day after day waiting for it to snow. I head out this week early Monday and home late Thursday...hopefully by then we will be looking at our first storm over the weekend, then I'm over to London and Chicago and home on the 23rd with winter in full on snow mode.

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Bumpity bump bump

Check out 12z NAM lol

Not impossible, but eh ... Obviously your stating this/that purely for muse given to the 60+ hour of the NAM, still - I have seen the NAM do this over amp thing a few times in the past 72, 84 hours, only to have it capitulate.

In a pattern character such as this, it seems colder solutions would have to come by local spatial anomalies relative to the overall appeal of no.

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I've been reading these boards for 10 years. The analysis used to be better in my opinion. The best short/mid range guys in this subforum by my estimation are the mets who focus on mesoscale stuff like mountain wx or lake effect (with exceptions of course).

Two people mentioned the Wed threat, CT Rain and me. Granted, the threat is quite low. But it's not that low. And that's not even the only wintry potential for this week. It's not the most exciting weather week, but part of the fun is figuring out the details and trying to get it right. I would hope it's not only about finding the next monster out in fantasy land.

I think you are mixing pattern discussion with immediate mid range threats. I saw a bunch of mentions of the Wed threat but it appears almost everyone including yourself is discounting it. Get something actually plausible then watch it ramp up.
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I promise you not just pictures but action packed videos.

Seriously the only thing keeping me sane is that I am constantly traveling for my business, so I dont' have day after day waiting for it to snow. I head out this week early Monday and home late Thursday...hopefully by then we will be looking at our first storm over the weekend, then I'm over to London and Chicago and home on the 23rd with winter in full on snow mode.

nice hope all is well. Still have the pooch? We just got another to make 5, this one is not a lapdog and replaces big old Bo. She had her first snow and loves it. Hopefully another weenie dog like Bo. Many pics incoming.
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