40/70 Benchmark Posted December 12, 2012 Share Posted December 12, 2012 One look at that map...and even coldfront may not end up "like"ing this.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattlacroix4 Posted December 12, 2012 Share Posted December 12, 2012 Is it just me, or does it really not stop snowing according to the GFS from Sunday all the way to Tuesday in SE NH and SW Maine? Maybe only 3-6 or 2-4 total for me, but 3 days of light snow is beautiful before the monster comes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 12, 2012 Share Posted December 12, 2012 On 12/12/2012 at 4:19 PM, CoastalWx said: Low into srn NJ at hr 150. Pretty mild aloft over SNE. It has ridging from NF into ern Canada so while the block is there, the GFS doesn't have any confluence loike we usually see with these blocks near Newfoundland. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quincy Posted December 12, 2012 Share Posted December 12, 2012 159hr low is over Long Island, but rain all the way up to central New England. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 12, 2012 Share Posted December 12, 2012 Pretty ugly on the GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted December 12, 2012 Share Posted December 12, 2012 You can see at hour 126 that the primary of the first storm north of the Great Lakes is still stronger than the secondary and not allowing any CAA at all behind that first storm in New England. It just almost immediately goes into a WAA pattern. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 12, 2012 Share Posted December 12, 2012 On 12/12/2012 at 4:20 PM, 40/70 Benchmark said: One look at that map...and even coldfront may not end up "like"ing this.... Its very close to not Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zeus Posted December 12, 2012 Share Posted December 12, 2012 On 12/12/2012 at 4:21 PM, CoastalWx said: Pretty ugly on the GFS. Loving it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChrisM Posted December 12, 2012 Share Posted December 12, 2012 if we blow these storm chances to rain there are gonna be some sick meltdowns. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 12, 2012 Share Posted December 12, 2012 Lol what garbage. That warm aloft with that blocking?? Toss that crap and toss it far Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted December 12, 2012 Share Posted December 12, 2012 Mid level features really are pretty good for BTV's CWA...its still marginal because there's no fresh CAA after the first storm, but that track is pretty climo for snows up here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bostonseminole Posted December 12, 2012 Share Posted December 12, 2012 On 12/12/2012 at 4:21 PM, powderfreak said: You can see at hour 126 that the primary of the first storm north of the Great Lakes is still stronger than the secondary and not allowing any CAA at all behind that first storm in New England. It just almost immediately goes into a WAA pattern. Toss it bro, it had some bad data ingested..jk.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 12, 2012 Share Posted December 12, 2012 Forky will love this Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted December 12, 2012 Share Posted December 12, 2012 It'd be close up here... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted December 12, 2012 Share Posted December 12, 2012 GFS nodding towards the Euro it seems. With a weak first impulse - we don't have much cold air or ridging behind and we end up with a storm too close to most of us and with little cold air. At least it'll be a colder rain for SNE on this map! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 12, 2012 Share Posted December 12, 2012 On 12/12/2012 at 4:22 PM, 40/70 Benchmark said: Forky will love this Pants tent Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ctsnowstorm628 Posted December 12, 2012 Share Posted December 12, 2012 On 12/12/2012 at 4:22 PM, powderfreak said: Mid level features really are pretty good for BTV's CWA...its still marginal because there's no fresh CAA after the first storm, but that track is pretty climo for snows up here. Agree. I'm cautiously optimistic for a weak/moderate event Monday and maybe something more wed. I leave VT Thursday though... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quincy Posted December 12, 2012 Share Posted December 12, 2012 On 12/12/2012 at 4:22 PM, CT Blizz said: Lol what garbage. That warm aloft with that blocking?? Toss that crap and toss it far All of the models have been pretty warm. Even the Euro 00z track LOOKS good, but temperatures are marginal at best. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 12, 2012 Share Posted December 12, 2012 The white's get smoked Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted December 12, 2012 Share Posted December 12, 2012 On 12/12/2012 at 4:22 PM, Bostonseminole said: Toss it bro, it had some bad data ingested.. jk.. Its just another run out of the 20 more we will see before its even close... I really think we'll have to watch the CAA after that first storm and if the secondary can become strong enough to drill a little fresh cold in and force it the second storm southeast a bit. If that first storm primary just sits north of the Lakes and rots the tendency will be for the second one to want to track more inland. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted December 12, 2012 Share Posted December 12, 2012 On 12/12/2012 at 4:24 PM, Quincy said: All of the models have been pretty warm. Even the Euro 00z track LOOKS good, but temperatures are marginal at best. I've been a bit befuddled by the excitement in SNE based on the Euro. Marginal as you say at best and at 5+ days.... Classic situation where the mountains in CNE and particularly NNE cash in big. Great news for them. We alleviate the drought down here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChrisM Posted December 12, 2012 Share Posted December 12, 2012 On 12/12/2012 at 4:25 PM, Cold Front said: The white's get smoked Well I'm glad some fox living at 5.5k will get his snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattlacroix4 Posted December 12, 2012 Share Posted December 12, 2012 What's with the warm air push on the GFS, should it drag down cold air from the high? Especially with a storm with that track and intensity. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 12, 2012 Share Posted December 12, 2012 Well it's going to change many times like we said. No need to turn this thread into the garbage it was this weekend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 12, 2012 Share Posted December 12, 2012 That high over QC early on was 1032mb, That's some cold air that will be filtering down probably under played here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted December 12, 2012 Share Posted December 12, 2012 it's more a response to the w canada vortex than a classic greenland block Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 12, 2012 Share Posted December 12, 2012 On 12/12/2012 at 4:24 PM, Quincy said: All of the models have been pretty warm. Even the Euro 00z track LOOKS good, but temperatures are marginal at best. Gfs is nothing like Euro though. Much Warner and not sensing cold drain and blocking. Euro would be huge hit interior. We'll see but for now we toss GFS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 12, 2012 Share Posted December 12, 2012 On 12/12/2012 at 4:27 PM, mattlacroix4 said: What's with the warm air push on the GFS, should it drag down cold air from the high? Especially with a storm with that track and intensity. Because the airmass behind storm one is very marginal and the baroclinic zone is almost overhead. So any WAA will cause the temps aloft to warm, if the GFS is right. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 12, 2012 Share Posted December 12, 2012 On 12/12/2012 at 4:26 PM, ChrisM said: Well I'm glad some fox living at 5.5k will get his snow. LOL What a malignant diseased, rusty coat hanger of a run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted December 12, 2012 Share Posted December 12, 2012 On 12/12/2012 at 4:24 PM, ctsnowstorm628 said: Agree. I'm cautiously optimistic for a weak/moderate event Monday and maybe something more wed. I leave VT Thursday though... Hopefully something exciting can happen before you leave... that H7 and H85 lows stay SE of us and with H5 cutting off near NYC, that is historically something that leads to snowy times in BTV's warning area. I'm sure its the same in a lot of GYX's zones too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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