Ginx snewx Posted December 8, 2012 Share Posted December 8, 2012 Daily model fluctuations keep NE on the edge of a gradient pattern. When does the dam break and what lies ahead?discussion and banter begin here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted December 8, 2012 Share Posted December 8, 2012 A winters day, in a dark and deep December. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted December 8, 2012 Share Posted December 8, 2012 A winters day, in a dark and deep December. I thought it was "deep and dark"? but my memory's goin' too Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted December 8, 2012 Share Posted December 8, 2012 Ed Scruggs, what exactly are you looking for, specific threats in the day 5 range or something? I thought we were just talking the general favorability of the pattern going forward... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 8, 2012 Share Posted December 8, 2012 With the 12z euro building that wear based neggy NAO. I wonder if that 15-16 storm can end up getting squeezed south as we move closer Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
N. OF PIKE Posted December 8, 2012 Share Posted December 8, 2012 With the 12z euro building that wear based neggy NAO. I wonder if that 15-16 storm can end up getting squeezed south as we move closer has HM given his latest today? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted December 8, 2012 Author Share Posted December 8, 2012 With the 12z euro building that wear based neggy NAO. I wonder if that 15-16 storm can end up getting squeezed south as we move closer I thought the 12Z euro was miles better than 0Z. Will the Weatherman will be very happy to hear Dec 1992 is a leading analog rolling forward. He has mentioned that cutoff look during the 15th-20th period. Starting to see some signs of positivism. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted December 8, 2012 Share Posted December 8, 2012 I thought the 12Z euro was miles better than 0Z. Will the Weatherman will be very happy to hear Dec 1992 is a leading analog rolling forward. He has mentioned that cutoff look during the 15th-20th period. Starting to see some signs of positivism. I'm not exactly "sold" yet...mainly due to the somewhat tenuous nature of a central/west -NAO and the ridging concern in the Bering Sea. But, it certainly doesn't look bad. Probably think about average at this point, but a better than normal chance at above normal snows? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted December 8, 2012 Share Posted December 8, 2012 I thought HM was facilating between a Christmas torch and a classic La Nina gradient pattern? Did he make up his mind? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted December 8, 2012 Share Posted December 8, 2012 I thought it was "deep and dark"? but my memory's goin' too You are correct. Old age......I suppose it beats the alternative. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted December 8, 2012 Share Posted December 8, 2012 Euro ens seem to offer a bit of hope for something next weekend redeveloping as the primary cuts west. Probably nothing for this area but I'd hold out some hope for northern areas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted December 8, 2012 Share Posted December 8, 2012 A few GEFS members that hold back the 2nd piece of energy for the "follow up" storm develop quite a noreaster last this week. Something to watch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted December 8, 2012 Share Posted December 8, 2012 I think people have to have normal expectations. We are moving from "fall" to an early winter pattern. Each week that passes increases our odds at a decent winter event. The dive into winter this year is going to be gradual. HOPEFULLY that means winters exit is gradual unlike the last x number of years come Feb/March. Stop looking at the models because they probably will not see the shift or will oscillate between shift/no shift until it happens sometime before Xmas. When it comes we're not going to get locked in the freezer. The PAC is still going to torch us from time to time. I'd much rather have cold/snowy followed by mild followed by cold/snowy vs the freezing testicles catching fire dry weather we had a few winters ago. JMHO. Weathafella, yeah looking forward to trying some new places. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted December 8, 2012 Share Posted December 8, 2012 Euro Ens are going to look pretty sweet D11-D15 I think. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthShoreWx Posted December 8, 2012 Share Posted December 8, 2012 Congratulatons Scott! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthShoreWx Posted December 8, 2012 Share Posted December 8, 2012 A winters day, in a dark and deep December. I am an island. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted December 8, 2012 Share Posted December 8, 2012 Euro Ens are going to look pretty sweet D11-D15 I think. With MJO waking up in P1/P2 not surprising to see models shift toward lower heights over Alaska and a popping +PNA. Might be a nice burst of pre-Christmas weather. If we can get something in the gradient pattern 12/15-12/20 that would turn out to be a pretty solid stretch of winter possibilities. Of course if the MJO wave does indeed become stout and starts rounding the bases the torch may cometh between Christmas and New Years. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted December 8, 2012 Share Posted December 8, 2012 Euro Ens are going to look pretty sweet D11-D15 I think. Haven't they looked sweet in the d11-15 range the past 11-15 days? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted December 8, 2012 Share Posted December 8, 2012 Haven't they looked sweet in the d11-15 range the past 11-15 days? lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eduggs Posted December 8, 2012 Share Posted December 8, 2012 Ed Scruggs, what exactly are you looking for, specific threats in the day 5 range or something? I thought we were just talking the general favorability of the pattern going forward... If we were better at predicting patterns from the long range and if patterns correlated more precisely to snowstorms for specific locations, then I would be looking in the long range. But we're not and they don't. Seasonal/climate/energy forecasts are interesting, but they are not useful for snowfall forecasting. I'm comfortable looking out to roughly 144hr - 168hr to identify potential threats. Further out I'm mildly interested in anomaly charts out to day 10 to get a sense of potential airmasses, trof placement, and amplitude. Beyond that I believe has very little utility for snowfall forecasting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted December 8, 2012 Author Share Posted December 8, 2012 Put this on the main board Wes, I used the new 12Z GFS analogs and did the opposite of you and went back 4 days. Interesting result which indicates an Arctic outbreak and possible deep low pressure occur prior to the analog dates. today's analog Animated 5H and 1000mb surface Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
N. OF PIKE Posted December 8, 2012 Share Posted December 8, 2012 lol the 11-15 is all I got to keep me from entering depression. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherX Posted December 8, 2012 Share Posted December 8, 2012 Haven't they looked sweet in the d11-15 range the past 11-15 days? Nope. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
heavy_wx Posted December 8, 2012 Share Posted December 8, 2012 With MJO waking up in P1/P2 not surprising to see models shift toward lower heights over Alaska and a popping +PNA. Might be a nice burst of pre-Christmas weather. If we can get something in the gradient pattern 12/15-12/20 that would turn out to be a pretty solid stretch of winter possibilities. Of course if the MJO wave does indeed become stout and starts rounding the bases the torch may cometh between Christmas and New Years. I'm not yet convinced the MJO becomes all that active, at least in the next couple weeks. The bias corrected GEFS take the MJO into phase 1 during the next week or so, but then go back to the low amplitude center. The Euro ensembles do go into phase 1-2, but they seem to be less accurate than the bias corrected GEFS, at least in the past few weeks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted December 8, 2012 Share Posted December 8, 2012 If we were better at predicting patterns from the long range and if patterns correlated more precisely to snowstorms for specific locations, then I would be looking in the long range. But we're not and they don't. Seasonal/climate/energy forecasts are interesting, but they are not useful for snowfall forecasting. I'm comfortable looking out to roughly 144hr - 168hr to identify potential threats. Further out I'm mildly interested in anomaly charts out to day 10 to get a sense of potential airmasses, trof placement, and amplitude. Beyond that I believe has very little utility for snowfall forecasting. I don't think anyone has argued otherwise. It's been talk of increased chances or threats for wintry ptypes, but not IMBY amounts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted December 8, 2012 Share Posted December 8, 2012 I'm not yet convinced the MJO becomes all that active, at least in the next couple weeks. The bias corrected GEFS take the MJO into phase 1 during the next week or so, but then go back to the low amplitude center. The Euro ensembles do go into phase 1-2, but they seem to be less accurate than the bias corrected GEFS, at least in the past few weeks. I don't know. For the last month the 2 week MJO forecasts from GEFS and Euro Ens have been dead as can be. It's now been 3 days in a row the models show the MJO beginning to pick back up. May not happen but even the Euro weeklies bring a stout wave out of the circle of death and round the octants. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eduggs Posted December 8, 2012 Share Posted December 8, 2012 A few GEFS members that hold back the 2nd piece of energy for the "follow up" storm develop quite a noreaster last this week. Something to watch. I agree that this is where to look if you want to find a wintry threat emerging. The GFS and GEM ensembles as well as recent runs of the Euro op suggest that there is a small statistical chance of snow in the Tue - Thurs timeframe. All the talk of 15 day anomaly charts gets a little rediculous considering the magnitude of day to day changes. It's been going on since October. Weird long range fetish. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted December 8, 2012 Share Posted December 8, 2012 I agree that this is where to look if you want to find a wintry threat emerging. The GFS and GEM ensembles as well as recent runs of the Euro op suggest that there is a small statistical chance of snow in the Tue - Thurs timeframe. All the talk of 15 day anomaly charts gets a little rediculous considering the magnitude of day to day changes. It's been going on since October. Weird long range fetish. Well there's no harm in discussing the long range. It's only the weenies who get upset and fight about IMBY forecasts off a 15 day ensemble forecast. There's a really tiny chance of something this week but I think looking at the long range stuff offers much more hope lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted December 8, 2012 Author Share Posted December 8, 2012 I agree that this is where to look if you want to find a wintry threat emerging. The GFS and GEM ensembles as well as recent runs of the Euro op suggest that there is a small statistical chance of snow in the Tue - Thurs timeframe. All the talk of 15 day anomaly charts gets a little rediculous considering the magnitude of day to day changes. It's been going on since October. Weird long range fetish. we consider long range the next season, its what we do starting in Nov. Discuss weather and model output, what is so wrong with that, not "ridonkulous" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eduggs Posted December 8, 2012 Share Posted December 8, 2012 I don't think anyone has argued otherwise. It's been talk of increased chances or threats for wintry ptypes, but not IMBY amounts. The periods that were widely predicted to be the snowiest or heralding in winter have proven to be dry, mild, and/or rainy. The best snows of the year for most of SNE and SNY occurred before winter began and the only appreciatable snow for most of ENY and WMA went almost without notice. The board consensus reflects a poor handle on the chances for wintry precipitation in the long range. In fact, I bet it's statistically worse than climo considering the built in pro snow bias of most forecasters. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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