The Race For Indiana Winter Futility Or Success

[Chicago WX]

You may remember me from such hits as, "The Race For Indiana's Hottest Summer On Record". But I have it on good authority that this may be an all time worst start to a snow season. Not naming names. Really though, it's been a slow start, no denying that...and there are snow futility records that have been already broken in Indiana, and more that are possible by the end of December. We can adjust further if this really gets out of hand.

South Bend is really the big loser here, sort of speak, as they are historically/climatologically the snowiest of the big 3 long term Indiana sites (yes, I skipped Evansville in this thread...not a good place for winter). SBN has already broken their longest period between measurable snowfalls...and it's growing. Fort Wayne fell short of that record. No idea on Indy, but I imagine whatever the record is...it's pretty long.

Anyways, some snow futility stats for these Indiana sites. Futility, such a dirty word. Alas, can't ignore it. I'll try to update this as frequently as possible...and please Indiana peeps, add anything you find. In this we're all together. Hopefully this thread jinxes the hell out of this miserable start, and things turn around soon.

Fort Wayne

Longest period between measurable snowfall (1912 to 2012)

280 days: February 25, 1990 to December 3, 1990

279 days: February 24, 1946 to December 1, 1946

275 days: February 28, 2010 to December 1, 2010

270 days: March 7, 1918 to December 3, 1918 and March 21, 1998 to December 17, 1998

239 days: March 4, 2012 to October 30, 2012

Latest date for first measurable snowfall, 0.1" or greater: December 23, 2001 (October 30, 2012)

Latest date for first measurable snowfall, 1.0" or greater: December 27, 1939 (?)

South Bend

Longest period between measurable snowfall (1929 to 2012, some missing data)

278 days: March 5, 2012 to December 8, 2012

272 days: March 11, 1948 to December 9, 1948

271 days: March 20, 1998 to December 17, 1998

260 days: March 23, 2011 to December 9, 2011

259 days: March 6, 1945 to November 21, 1945

Latest date for first measurable snowfall, 0.1" or greater: December 17, 1998 (?)

Latest date for first measurable snowfall, 1.0" or greater: December 24, 2001 (?)

Data above taken from here: http://www.crh.noaa....wx/?n=snowstats

Least snowiest starts to a season, July 1 through December 31

Fort Wayne (1897 to present*)

0.4" in 1943

0.6" in 2012 (through 12/8)

0.7" in 1912, 1949

0.9" in 1918

1.0" in 1998

1.5" in 1923, 1994

Indianapolis (1884 to present)

Trace in 1940

0.1" in 1896

0.2" in 2012 (through 12/8)

0.4" in 1905

0.5" in 1982

0.6" in 1949, 1970

South Bend (1893 to present*)

Trace in 2012 (through 12/8)

1.0" in 1923

1.5" in 1912

2.4" in 1936

2.5" in 1931

3.4" in 1994

* some data missing for Fort Wayne and South Bend

All snowfall totals from NCDC

[Indystorm]

I hope South Bend can end that record snowless streak next weekend with the prospective system, but with SPC already giving a heads up for svr wx down in Dixie who knows how far north the warm wedge will nudge. It is odd that we've missed out on LES so far this season.

[IWXwx]

SBN may be able to measure something with some LES on Monday.

That October 30th snow for FWA was questionable. I drove by the airport shortly after the snow ended and I didn't even see a trace even though they reported. 0.1". Oh well, it didn't make a difference in the grand scheme of things.

[TugHillMatt]

I hope South Bend can end that record snowless streak next weekend with the prospective system, but with SPC already giving a heads up for svr wx down in Dixie who knows how far north the warm wedge will nudge. It is odd that we've missed out on LES so far this season.

You haven't "missed out". There hasn't been any! The only real lake effect from Lake Michigan has been in the Petoskey, Traverse City areas...and that wasn't even much.

[Hoosier]

SBN probably getting something measurable as we speak. Light snow with 3/4 mile visibility on the last ob.

[IndyRayne]

I saw a flake or two fall this afternoon outside of my window down here in Bloomington. I probably have a selective memory, but it feels like it has been forever since we've had a good snow (6+ inches). Even missed out on the big snow a couple of years ago (ended up with ice that melted a few hours later when the temps hit 50 degrees).

[Chicago WX]

SBN probably getting something measurable as we speak. Light snow with 3/4 mile visibility on the last ob.

Mod (0.5 mi) and even +SN between 2-3pm. Have to believe they're off the snide.

I saw a flake or two fall this afternoon outside of my window down here in Bloomington. I probably have a selective memory, but it feels like it has been forever since we've had a good snow (6+ inches). Even missed out on the big snow a couple of years ago (ended up with ice that melted a few hours later when the temps hit 50 degrees).

Welcome.

January 26-28, 2009 was probably the last big storm to hit Bloomington. http://www.crh.noaa.gov/ind/?n=jan2809snow

[Chicago WX]

I changed the title and theme of this thread, as it's going to be a catch all winter futility thing for Indiana. Until things turnaround. If they turnaround. And my new addition...

Indianapolis has a mean temperature of 49.1º for December through yesterday. With the next two weeks looking solidly above average, we might as look at some of the warmest Decembers on record for Indianapolis. 40.2º would be the modern day record, or the airport record.

46.2º in 1889

45.5º in 1877

42.4º in 1923

41.2º in 1918, 1931

40.8º in 1875

40.6º in 1881, 1891

40.2º in 1982

38.9º in 1984, 1994

38.8º in 1956, 2006

38.6º in 1941, 1965

[Hoosier]

Only a T at SBN so far today. Gotta think something will stick there by tomorrow.

Edit: hmm, just saw this line in the afternoon climate report: PRECIPITATION AND SNOWFALL VALUES VALID TODAY AS OF 0100 PM LOCAL TIME

[Chicago WX]

4pm climate report for SBN didn't have updated snowfall numbers.

Anyway, it's raining there now.

CLIMATE REPORT

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA

421 PM EST MON DEC 10 2012

...................................

...THE SOUTH BEND CLIMATE SUMMARY FOR DECEMBER 10 2012...

VALID TODAY AS OF 0400 PM LOCAL TIME.

PRECIPITATION AND SNOWFALL VALUES VALID TODAY AS OF 0100 PM

LOCAL TIME.

[Hoosier]

Welcome IndyRayne!

[Indystorm]

IWX calling for 1-3 inches if not a little more in favored LES bands in northern LaPorte and Berrien Counties overnight. We shall see.

[Chicago WX]

0.3" at SBN today. And so it ends, at 279 days. Also won't reach the record for the latest date of the first 0.1"+.

Longest period between measurable snowfall (1929 to 2012, some missing data)

279 days: March 5, 2012 to December 9, 2012

272 days: March 11, 1948 to December 9, 1948

271 days: March 20, 1998 to December 17, 1998

260 days: March 23, 2011 to December 9, 2011

259 days: March 6, 1945 to November 21, 1945

Latest date for first measurable snowfall, 0.1" or greater: December 17, 1998

[Hoosier]

1.0" at SBN yesterday so you can cross the 1" record off the list as well.

[andyhb]

Interesting that three of those streaks ended on December 9th.

[IndyRayne]

Welcome IndyRayne!

Thank you!

[Chicago WX]

4th warmest first 15 days of December on record for Indianapolis. http://www.crh.noaa....=89935&source=0

46.1º in 1889

45.9º in 1998

45.7º in 2001

44.6º in 2012

44.2º in 1918

It's looking more likely this could be the warmest "modern day" December on record for Indianapolis (or since the airport became the official site in 1943).

40.2º in 1982

38.9º in 1984, 1994

38.8º in 1956, 2006

38.6º in 1965

38.4º in 1971

[Hoosier]

So I'm gonna come out of the closet and say that I was the inspiration for this thread, although my exact words were that it would be one of the worst openings to winter that we've ever seen. Sitting with 0.1" total snow (and yes it does snow here in December) and +9.9 through the 15th...it doesn't get much worse than that, and the bad news is that it may not change in a big way anytime in the near future.

[Chicago WX]

So I'm gonna come out of the closet and say that I was the inspiration for this thread, although my exact words were that it would be one of the worst openings to winter that we've ever seen. Sitting with 0.1" total snow (and yes it does snow here in December) and +9.9 through the 15th...it doesn't get much worse than that, and the bad news is that it may not change in a big way anytime in the near future.

Punting the winter in December, nice.

Seriously though, I've kinda lost my ambition with this winter...even if the met portion is only 16 days old. Ridiculous, I know. Just don't have a good feeling at this point. Hopefully it'll turn around at some point, but I won't hold my breath. Oh well, sh*t happens.

[Hoosier]

Punting the winter in December, nice.

Seriously though, I've kinda lost my ambition with this winter...even if the met portion is only 16 days old. Ridiculous, I know. Just don't have a good feeling at this point. Hopefully it'll turn around at some point, but I won't hold my breath. Oh well, sh*t happens.

We've had big turnarounds before so it's not like it can't be done. It'd be interesting to isolate the ENSO neutral years that started off poorly and see how many of those turned around.

[Chicago WX]

Using CPC's ENSO (new normals), the worst neutral winter starts for Indianapolis in terms of snowfall. I mean the bad of the bad.

1978-79: 0.7" through December...37.7" thereafter

1979-80: 1.0" through December...23.8" thereafter

2001-02: 0.7" through December...10.2" thereafter

Small sample size. 1978-79 should probably be chucked to the curb...as that December especially, was much different than this one. The other two are probably somewhat more relevant.

[Chicago WX]

Maybe the strangest December on record for Indianapolis. An absolute blowtorch month overall, 39.7º +7.8º through yesterday...and 14.0" of total snowfall through today (9th most in recorded history for December). Below is a list of the 20 warmest Decembers on record and total snowfall for each month (only used 1884 to present, to coincide with snowfall records). Nothing comes close to what has transpired this month.

1889: 46.2º.....0.0"

1923: 42.4º.....1.0"

1931: 41.2º.....T

1891: 40.6º.....0.4"

1918: 40.3º.....1.2"

1982: 40.2º.....0.4"

1984: 38.9º.....3.6"

1994: 38.9º.....2.5"

1956: 38.8º.....3.2"

2006: 38.8º.....0.9"

1941: 38.6º.....0.1"

1965: 38.6º.....2.9"

1971: 38.4º.....0.4"

2001: 38.2º.....0.7"

2011: 37.8º.....2.3"

1940: 37.6º.....T

1913: 37.2º.....0.4"

1911: 36.7º.....0.4"

1998: 36.5º.....3.3"

1957: 36.2º.....3.4"

[Chicago WX]

3.2" at SBN today through 7:00pm, brings the December total to 9.1". They'll miss the top 20 least snowiest December list by a mile. Still below normal, but yeah.

[Hoosier]

Maybe the strangest December on record for Indianapolis. An absolute blowtorch month overall, 39.7º +7.8º through yesterday...and 14.0" of total snowfall through today (9th most in recorded history for December). Below is a list of the 20 warmest Decembers on record and total snowfall for each month (only used 1884 to present, to coincide with snowfall records). Nothing comes close to what has transpired this month.

1889: 46.2º.....0.0"

1923: 42.4º.....1.0"

1931: 41.2º.....T

1891: 40.6º.....0.4"

1918: 40.3º.....1.2"

1982: 40.2º.....0.4"

1984: 38.9º.....3.6"

1994: 38.9º.....2.5"

1956: 38.8º.....3.2"

2006: 38.8º.....0.9"

1941: 38.6º.....0.1"

1965: 38.6º.....2.9"

1971: 38.4º.....0.4"

2001: 38.2º.....0.7"

2011: 37.8º.....2.3"

1940: 37.6º.....T

1913: 37.2º.....0.4"

1911: 36.7º.....0.4"

1998: 36.5º.....3.3"

1957: 36.2º.....3.4"

Cool stuff. Goes to show how you can have a torch month and get lucky with snow even without being far north.

[Chicago WX]

Preliminary numbers for December at IND (based off todays's temps, precip, and snow as of the 4pm climate report). Will update when it becomes final.

Average temperature: 38.4º +6.8º

Precipitation: 2.56" -0.61"

Snowfall: 14.5" +7.6"

16th warmest December on record (tied with 1971)

8th snowiest December on record

[Chicago WX]

Looking at other Decembers that finished within one degree of 2012, either way, and rolling it forward to January and February. 6 out of the 10 following Januaries were warmer than normal...and 7 out of the 10 Februaries were colder than normal. Come on Feb 2007 repeat.

38.9º in 1984.....20.4º.....26.1º

38.9º in 1994.....28.6º.....30.0º

38.8º in 1956.....23.5º.....36.5º

38.8º in 2006.....32.5º.....19.7º

38.6º in 1941.....29.2º.....28.6º

38.6º in 1965.....22.4º.....30.4º

38.4º in 1971.....26.5º.....28.4º

38.2º in 2001.....35.1º.....35.6º

37.8º in 2011.....33.7º.....37.3º

37.6º in 1940.....31.2º.....28.1º

[Chicago WX]

And if we ignore temperatures and just go with Decembers with similar snowfall totals for Indianapolis. Following Januaries were split half and half...Februaries were a disaster. But, snowfall has to be the hardest thing to predict ahead of time. And January 1978 or 1982 aren't walking through that door.

16.6" in 2010.....11.8".....7.5"

16.3" in 2000.....2.1".......0.8"

15.6" in 1981.....21.8".....13.6"

15.2" in 1977.....30.6".....3.9"

14.6" in 1996.....12.9".....3.1"

14.1" in 2005.....2.7".......3.9"

13.1" in 1915.....0.6".......5.0"

13.1" in 2004.....10.7".....2.5"

12.9" in 1969.....7.8".......9.2"

[Chicago WX]

Looking ahead to January for Indianapolis.

Top 10 Warmest January Mean Temperatures

45.0º in 1880

39.8º in 2006

39.2º in 1933

38.4º in 1876, 1932

37.4º in 1890, 1950

37.3º in 1990

36.6º in 1998

36.3º in 1989

35.9º in 1939

35.3º in 1906

Top 10 Coldest January Mean Temperatures

10.3º in 1977

14.6º in 1918

16.8º in 1940

17.2º in 1912

17.9º in 1893, 1970

18.0º in 1979

18.2º in 1978

19.5º in 1963

19.8º in 1875

20.1º in 1982

Top 10 Snowiest January

30.6" in 1978

25.2" in 1996

22.0" in 1918

21.8" in 1982

20.9" in 1977

20.0" in 1895

19.1" in 1979

18.3" in 1999

17.6" in 1915

17.0" in 1968

[Chicago WX]

January 2013 snowfall totals for FWA, IND, SBN. Might as well call them final.

 

FWA: 2.1"

 

IND: 1.5"

 

SBN: 7.7"

 

Below, a list of lowest January snowfall totals in recorded history for each site.

 

FWA

T in 1900

0.3" in 1935

0.4" in 1919

0.7" in 1933

0.8" in 1932

1.0" in 1906

1.1" in 1942, 1960

1.5" in 2002

1.6" in 1944

1.7" in 1989, 1999, 1998

 

IND

T in 1942, 1944, 1960

0.1" in 1919, 1933, 1989

0.2" in 1932

0.4" in 1973

0.6" in 1916, 1923

0.7" in 1952

0.8" in 1998

0.9" in 1947

1.0" in 1934

1.1" in 1894, 1896, 1935

 

SBN

0.3" in 1919

0.5" in 1932

1.0" in 1933, 1944

1.2" in 1990

1.5" in 1896

1.7" in 1949

1.9" in 1935

2.5" in 1906, 1911

2.8" in 1950

2.9" in 2001 

[Chicago WX]

Looking at other Decembers that finished within one degree of 2012, either way, and rolling it forward to January and February. 6 out of the 10 following Januaries were warmer than normal...and 7 out of the 10 Februaries were colder than normal. Come on Feb 2007 repeat.

38.9º in 1984.....20.4º.....26.1º

38.9º in 1994.....28.6º.....30.0º

38.8º in 1956.....23.5º.....36.5º

38.8º in 2006.....32.5º.....19.7º

38.6º in 1941.....29.2º.....28.6º

38.6º in 1965.....22.4º.....30.4º

38.4º in 1971.....26.5º.....28.4º

38.2º in 2001.....35.1º.....35.6º

37.8º in 2011.....33.7º.....37.3º

37.6º in 1940.....31.2º.....28.1º

 

This didn't work out too bad, as Indianapolis will finish above normal. IND sits at 28.0º through yesterday, which is dead nuts normal to date. My best guess for a final January average temp is around 29.1º. Closest to January 1942 and 1995. Both had cooler than normal Februaries, so we'll see. One thing is clear though, as I mused in the quote...Feb 2007 isn't walking through the door.