Ian Posted December 7, 2012 Share Posted December 7, 2012 AGU posted a bit about this yesterday. I was able to dig up some more info from the team leader. Kinda interesting.. not completely sure what it all means to be honest.. included some thoughts on prior research too. http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/capital-weather-gang/post/can-lightning-help-predict-tornadoes-a-dc-area-case-may-shed-some-light/2012/12/07/12cce3f0-400a-11e2-bca3-aadc9b7e29c5_blog.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted December 7, 2012 Share Posted December 7, 2012 AGU posted a bit about this yesterday. I was able to dig up some more info from the team leader. Kinda interesting.. not completely sure what it all means to be honest.. included some thoughts on prior research too. http://www.washingto...e29c5_blog.html Ian, I tried posting a response on the CWG site and couldn't. It's an interesting article. I'm skeptical about the idea as lightning generally increases when the updraft really gets going no matter what type of convective storm you get. He needs to do a study of more storms to see if there is a true statistical difference between storm types. Still, it's an interesting idea worth looking at in more detail. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted December 7, 2012 Author Share Posted December 7, 2012 Ian, I tried posting a response on the CWG site and couldn't. It's an interesting article. I'm skeptical about the idea as lightning generally increases when the updraft really gets going no matter what type of convective storm you get. He needs to do a study of more storms to see if there is a true statistical difference between storm types. Still, it's an interesting idea worth looking at in more detail. Yeah, that's sort of my general take. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WhiteoutWX Posted December 7, 2012 Share Posted December 7, 2012 This has been a topic of research for years. As stated in the article sudden increases in lightning flash rates have been correlated to increases in updraft strength. This can signal a possible severe thunderstorm is developing but the type of weather produced depends on other things. The increase in updraft strength could lead to severe hail, downbursts, sometimes tornadoes (through increased tilting of the horizontal vorticity within the storm). There has often been a noted decrease in flash rates prior to the formation of tornadoes but this is hard to use operationally because a decrease in flash rates could also just mean the storm itself is dissipating. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AtticaFanatica Posted December 9, 2012 Share Posted December 9, 2012 In terms of content, the study was met with a large amount of skepticism by those in the electrification community in terms of methodology and, obviously, sample size, particularly considering the gravity of the claims that were made. From a promotional standpoint, I think it's unfortunate, but not surprising, that AGU promoted this work in the way it did, knowing it would bait science media with a misleading and unwarranted title. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AtticaFanatica Posted December 10, 2012 Share Posted December 10, 2012 it was from one of the poster sessions. poster sessions are meant to showcase tentative or speculative research in order to engage conversation. this seems like an appropriate example of the posters I've seen there in the past. Yeah, I get that, but I think the title of the AGU blog post was sensationalistic given past work in this area and the highly speculative nature of the work completed for the poster. I know and work with a lot of people that work in this exact research area and they were stunned by the insinuations of the blog post, to put it lightly. Obviously, my opinion was influenced heavily by them since they're experts in the field and they know better than I. as as sidenote, I've been working on a soon-to-be--published book related to lightning research, and there are a good number of atmospheric electricity scientists who do make the connection between severe weather and lightning. Yeah, severe weather, definitely, but the tornado connection is a whole different level and the peer-reviewed work is not supportive of a clear connection between the two at this point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AtticaFanatica Posted December 10, 2012 Share Posted December 10, 2012 the AGU blog post linked to in the CWG article was written by a grad student, not by someone on staff at AGU. Not surprised to hear that. Also, props to Ian, who's article was balanced and nuanced (in a good way). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted December 11, 2012 Author Share Posted December 11, 2012 Not surprised to hear that. Also, props to Ian, who's article was balanced and nuanced (in a good way). Thanks. I was definitely skeptical and had not even really planned on writing about it until I was asked to. I have seen the reaction from researchers in the field who certainly seem to agree with your feelings overall. I do certainly agree the initial piece on the AGU blog left something to be desired as far as putting it into context. I'm no expert on the subject. Even being skeptical I didn't want to throw the JHU team under the bus... if I had more time (wrote it the night before) might have been able to dig a bit deeper. You may know.. do others take those measurements on electric field mills? I get the impression it's sort of "farmer science" (i.e., not taken seriously) in that angle, from what I've seen people say since the initial article and the CWG one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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