U.S. Intense Hurricane Drought Continues

[vortex95]

http://rogerpielkejr...ne-drought.html

I think the most important thing to come away with here is this:

"The long-term intense hurricane drought means that a mere "regression to the mean"

will see more hurricane landfalls and considerably higher damage in the years to come.

The fashionable talk these days of a "new normal" is of course utter ( ) . Just wait until

we return to the "old normal" -- I know that it may be hard to believe, but both hurricane

damage and climate hype are set to increase dramatically in the years to come."

Want to talk about "normal"? The period from 1970 to present has been relatively quiet

meteorologically for major hurricane strikes in the U.S. Yes, 2004 and 2005 were very bad, but it

is isolated to those two years in a 42 year period taking the seasons as a whole (not talking

about number of named storms per season here either, but that has its own share of problems

over the climatic record).

Now, if you look at the period 1925-1969, it was way worse, again, strictly from a meteorological

standpoint. If you look at the number of major hurricane landfalls in the U.S from that period and

where they hit, it is no contest to the current period (the Hurricane Re-analysis Project really shows

how bad it was). There were not just a few bad seasons for major landfalls either, they were

spread out over multiple years, esp. if you look at Florida. And there is New England...1938, 1944,

1954 (2), and 1960. That averages one hurricane every 4-5 years over that 22 year period.

How many hurricanes have made landfall over Long Island or the New England coast since

1960?, three...Belle (1976), Gloria (1985), and Bob (1991).

So when talking about "normals" you have to be very careful. I will state the disclaimer than

I realize hurricanes are only one part of equation in global climate, but 1) they are an

important factor in the grand scheme of things I believe because of their enormous heat extraction

and dissipation both from the air and sea and heat distribution between the tropics and polar

regions, and 2) individual hurricane strikes are often used as poster childs to say the wx is

getting worse. They are getting worse, but in my opinion only from a sociological and economical

point of view, not meteorological. We need to stick to the science of meteorology itself here if we

are to properly view things in the correct perspective. The sociological shock and awe factor

from individual wx events is not part of practicing good objective science.